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cover of episode 9. 加更英文原声版:口述一部硅谷风投史

9. 加更英文原声版:口述一部硅谷风投史

2022/12/30
logo of podcast 张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录

张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录

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Sebastian Mallaby
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塞巴斯蒂安·马拉比在播客中探讨了风险投资的幂次法则,指出大多数风险投资项目失败,但少数项目能带来巨额回报。他认为风险投资的起源是叛逆,它解放了创业者,改变了硅谷的商业文化。他还深入分析了风险投资史上的关键人物,如阿瑟·洛克、唐·瓦伦丁、汤姆·帕金斯、孙正义等,比较了红杉资本和凯鹏华盈的成功与失败经验,并探讨了风险投资在中国的发展特点。 张晓军作为主持人,引导马拉比阐述了其新书《The Power Law》的核心观点,并就风险投资的起源、关键人物、投资策略、文化差异等方面与马拉比进行了深入探讨。

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本书作者选择《幂次法则》作为书名,意在揭示风险投资的独特运作模式。与正态分布不同,风险投资多以小概率高回报为特征,少数成功案例即可抵消大部分失败投资的损失。
  • 幂次法则揭示风险投资运作模式
  • 多数风险投资失败,少数获得巨额回报
  • 风险投资需采用不同思维模式

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Hello, 大家好, 我是 张晓军。 这是 一档 试图 探索 和 描摹 我们 时代 的 商业 文化 和 心知 的 播客 节目。 一转眼 我们 已经 来到 2022年 的 尾巴 了, 现在 进入 倒计时, 先 在 节目 里 给 大家 拜 一个 早年, 大家 元旦 快乐, 新春快乐。 上期 节目 里 很多 听众 留言 说 希望 听到 作家 的 英文 原声, 所以 我决定 临时 加 更 了 一期。

这 期 播客 的 访谈 对象 是 塞巴斯蒂安 马拉 比, 他是 一名 非常 绅士 的 英国 记者 和 作家, 出版 过 许多 商业 读物, 包括 记录 对冲基金 历史 的 富 可 帝国 格林斯潘 传记, 他 也 两次 入围 了 普利策。 而 他的 妻子 同样 是 一名 优秀 的 记者, 现在 是 全球 知名 期刊 经济学 人的 总编辑。 这次 采访 内容 和 他的 新书 的 power law 有关, 这 本书 揭露 了 硅谷 风投 的 隐秘 故事。 而在 这 期 播客 里, 你 能 听到 一部 由 他 口述 的 硅谷 风投 史。 不过 如果你 想听 的 不是 英文版, 而是 中文 版本, 就请 移步 我的 上期 节目。 上期 节目 是 有 中文 配音 的, 希望 这次 用 声音 带 你 纵览 硅谷 风投 的 历程。

我 对 您 这 本书 的 英文 书名 的 power law 很感兴趣, 为什么 选择 用 幂 次 法则 作为 书名 呢?

I chose the parallel because it's set of the secret key to how venture capital works and most kinds of investing. Ah you think about a Normal distribution, uh so that's where there's a big bell curve and most of the investments you might make, uh, we will have a return again or lost something near the average.

Um but with the venture capital, most them fail because most startups fail, but there are few that make enormous profits ten times, twenty times the investment. And that's a very different kind of investing and forces you to think differently. And so I thought the parallel was the right title.

能不能 聊聊 你为什么 写 这 本书, 以及 您 的 采访 和 写作 历程?

yes. Well, with the writing process, um the key thing for me is always to speak to the most important people in the field. And so I take a long time because these people are busy and important and usually they say no when I first asked them.

So I takes about five years to see all the people I need to see and interview may be two hundred or so top venture capita. And then when they trust, they tell me lots of the stories. And then in way, the writing is the easy bit.

So uh, if I take the example of the koa, which is of course the most important venture capital company, very big in the U. S, very big in china, at the beginning, uh, the koa did not want to speak with me. They said, you know, they have all these secrets, and so why would they talk to a writer? Uh they're the best in the world so they don't need to speak to anybody.

Um but uh after while um I I had met all of the people who used to festival in the past and I had worked with a lot of people who are had been invested in the same startups as square and therefore they had been sitting next to the korea partners at the board meetings of the startups and I had met investors who put money in the choir uh and so I think the people at the choir decided that I already knew quite a lot about them. And so in the end, uh, IT was Better to speak to me than not to speak to me. And then once we started talking, I think they liked IT, and they spoke to me for hours and hours.

您 的 书 开篇 就 开始 探寻 风险投资 的 起源, 然后 您 很快 将 读者 带入 到了 1957年 几个 背叛者 的 故事。 诺贝尔奖 得主 肖克利 的 八名 年轻 的 研究员 不服 他的 高压 管理, 奋起 反抗, 自立门户。 叛逆 是 风险投资 的 起源 吗?

Yes, I think rebellion is the origin I call IT, sometimes liberation capital. Yes, because the venture capital freeze, the entrepreneurs know to leave a big company, rebelled against the boss, and then start up a new company based on a whole different way of thinking.

我 非常 喜欢 您 用 的 这个 词, 就是 解放 资本。 你 用 这个 词 给 风险资本 做了 一个 全新 的 阐释, 您 想 通过 这个 词 表达 什么 呢? 解放 资本 改变 了 什么? 他 解放 了 谁? 以及 他 塑造 了 一代人 的 商业 文化 吗?

Yes, I mean, in the nineteen and fifties, in silicon value is not called silicon value at semi conduct business. And secondly, the typical culture was that engineers worked at one company and they stayed there and they didn't leave and the first story in my book is about the eight treasures, uh, engineers who did leave, uh, one company and they started fair child. But that was called being a trade because I was so unusual, uh, but with venture capital being willing to put money behind, uh, engineers who wanted to start a new company, the culture did change and starting a fresh company became Normal. Uh and so I think IT liberated all kinds of people with ideas to try things out, an experiment, and that really did change the culture of city convention.

马拉 比 先生, 您 的 书 围绕 着 一些 重要 的 基金 和 重要人物 展开。 我想 跟 您 聊聊 那些 撼动 风投 史 的 大人物 们。 很 有意思 的 一点 是, 风险投资 史 上 的 大人物 们 似乎 都 有一个 悲惨 的 家庭出身 和 不 快乐的童年。 第一个 现代 意义 上 的 风险投资 人 阿瑟 洛克先生 就 经历 了 严酷 的 童年, 他 患有 小儿麻痹症。 红杉 资本 的 创始人 唐 瓦伦丁 的 父亲 是 一名 卡车司机, 家庭 不曾 拥有 过 银行存款。 还有 孙正义, 就 像你 写 的 那样, 他是 白手起家 的 极端 案例。 为什么会这样 呢? 这种 背景 背后 是否 有 某种 共通 的 动机 或者 联系?

Yes, I think there is. I think that if you grow up, uh, in tough circumstances and you are not part of the elites, um IT may be harder to join an existing uh prestigious company and get along with everybody and naturally you know rise up to towards to the top uh and because you are a bit different in your attitudes and you're upbringing and you haven't had that advantage, you have to start your own company or start your own venture capital company. And so I think that um coming from an unusual background makes you do unusual things later.

这 意味着 相比 豪门望族 来说, 风险投资 这个 职业 更 适合于 平民 子弟 吗? 在 今天, 他 还是 如此 吗?

I'm not sure that IT has to be blue color. I mean, a master or SHE son, for example, was in a grow up, paul. And he was korean in japan and the koreans were are discriminated against. But on the other hand, he you know went to berkely and uh you know went to high school in california and so he has some advantages. He wasn't really blue color by the time he was in his teens. Ah you know he was on a path towards uh you know a more successful life um so i'm not sure you have to be blue color, but I think it's good to be a bit different um so uther rock not really blue collar but he had um been sick as a child with polio and that gave a different approach.

So what did their childhood experience for ring to their venture .

capital career? Yeah I think it's just um you know being a bit different, not thinking the same as everybody else. And so the idea that a radical new idea for a business might work feels more Normal because you're not connected to the data square. You believe in disruption because you didn't come from the establishment.

让 我们 来 分别 看看 这些 大人物。 风险投资 历史上 的 第一个 重要人物 是 阿瑟 洛克, 为什么 这个人 对于 风投 史 来说 这么 重要?

Is the most important because he did the first successful venture capital deal in california, and that was starting the first semiconductor success story with fairchild semiconductor. But later he also backed intel, apple and a few other is successful stories.

在 书中 您 提到 说 他的 一个 贡献 是 设计 了 有限 合伙 的 机制。 这是 我们 今天 常常 说到 的 L P 它的 基金 一开始 就 先 募集 资金, 并且 承诺 有 七年 的 存续期。 这样的 机制 设计 给 风险投资 带来 了 什么 呢?

Yes, that's a good question. So I think the time limited fund idea over about seven years forces the venture capitalist to, you know, hurry up and make investments and put some pressure not you know seven years is still a quite a long time um but you can just take fifteen years um and the other thing is that having the money ready means that if a great entrepreneurs rives, the investor knows that he can put money in the company before artha rock set up this first venture capital fund, you know, he would meet a company. And if he liked IT, he had to go specifically to investors and say, please invest in this company but with a fun, he had the money already and that was much faster.

但是 我 也很 好奇, 为什么 阿瑟 洛克 这样的 行业 的 开创者, 却 没有 能够 成功 的 创立 家 像 红杉 或者 凯鹏 华 驿 这样 名噪一时 的 基金。

Yes, and I think because he was such a learner, you know, he didn't like to build teams. He like to Operate by himself and when he had and partners you know in his first friend and then his second friend, he had one partner um they didn't tend to end up friends oh uh I think because he was clever but um prickly if you know what I mean, he would um not believe that friendly and so I did spend quite a lot of time with dick criminal, who was the second partner he worked with.

好 um and dc criminal really didn't like rock is a lona um again, maybe that's to do with um being different, growing up with polio, being bleed when he was a child because he was jewish and not physically strong. You know he he wanted to be his own man and be independent. He didn't really like to start a whole organization.

I got to know him pretty well and I think he enjoyed being independent. He made plenty of money for himself so he would IT became a wealthy man. But there are people like that who just preferred to be the boss I mean, uh let's say Cathy zo um from capital today in china when I went to meet her in twenty nineteen.

Uh I think he was thinking about these issues because he asked me a lot about the american venture capitalist who either did or did not build lasting organizations but I think Kathy ja is somebody who you know likes to be the boss of her own company and did not want to join another partnership. SHE was asked to join sheming and SHE didn't want to. And some people just very independent and they can do very well. And so there's nothing wrong with that um but they don't necessarily create organizations that last .

for fifty two or sixty s 接着 唐 瓦伦丁 和 汤姆 帕金斯 登场 了, 他们 分别 创立 了 红杉 和 凯鹏 华盈, 他们 也是 新的 投资 风格 的 先驱。 在 您 看来, 他们 与 阿瑟 洛克 的 不同 是什么?

Well, they did and create lasting organizations. Don't valentine create a which is still a very powerful company and from perkins created kiner perkins ah and that's gone up and down a bit, but it's still very much alive. And you know probably IT was the number one company in the world for venture capital and twenty years ago, uh, so that was thirty years after IT was started.

So definitely they both created lasting institutions. So one idea they had was that they created the idea of uh, stage by stage investing. So when they started up came, uh to ask for money.

They didn't give all the money that he wanted, but they gave a bit to give IT, maybe six months or nine months to try to prove itself. And then if IT reached a milestone of progress, then they would give more money. Uh, so that stage by stage, idea was important.

And the other thing is. And on investing, they would um go on the board of the company and be very active in shaping IT after rock would go on the board two. But he was a bit less involved in either the marketing or the engineering. And I think tom happened to himself with an engineer and had set up A A laser company himself, uh, was more involved in shaping some of the early companies that he back, like for example, genentech.

您 花了 一 整个 章节 来 写 红杉, 在 您 看来, 为什么 红杉 成为 一家 长久 的 立于 鳌头 的 风投 机构? 为什么 作为 双子星 的 另一家 机构 凯鹏 华盈 却 没有 能够 做到 这一点? 红杉 在 投资决策 机制 设计 和 组织文化 方面 做对 了 哪些 事情?

I think the big difference um between cat package which fell from the top rank, and the koa, which remained at the top was the amount of energy that the leaders put into management. Um sometimes in venture capital, a terrific uh investors. They love going to meet entrepreneurs.

They love making bets on startups, but they don't really think about their own venture capital company. And the problem with um john door, who is the dominant partner at china perkins was exactly that. He was a very charismatic and uh fantastic salesmen, very smart near a lot about engineering. He had been an engineer at intel um but he he didn't really focus on the management of kinder parkins.

In contrast, Michael merits and the only the top people at the choir were very, very focused on you know how you hire a Young investors, how you encourage them, how you develop them, how you think about the company culture when you sit around the table and you decide on monday morning whether to do an investment or whether to say no to that investment, what is the dynamic around the table? How do you use decision science in the behavioral science to improve the quality of your decisions? Sqa was very focused on all these internal management questions. Kinder packets was not.

我们 可以 从 红杉 身上 学到 什么?

I think we can learn a couple of things. One is not to stay the same. You've got a change all the time.

He means the choir in about ninety ninety five was a you know very small company that only invested in series a at the beginning of the of a startup's life and and only really in in silicon valley. But ten years later, IT had set up an office in china. IT had set up the growth business to write much bigger checks to, uh, bigger companies.

IT was thinking about starting a hatch fund. IT was changing in all these different ways. Uh and I think that's one of the keys to staying on top is to innovate your organization. Uh and the other thing um I think is again to focus on uh who you hire and really put energy into developing the people.

So a good example would be the rule of butter who is today the boss of security in amErica um you know was high when he was very Young in his in his twenties still and one of the oldest investors came to him and said, listen, let's let's do a deal um when you invest in your first company will be a partnership. Two of us, we will go together to the company board meetings. Um I will be on the board at the beginning and you will watch how I do IT.

And then if the company fails, IT will be my fault. I will be the board member and I will be my black mark on my name, which I didn't care about because I am already an experience investor. But for you as a Young investor, that would be a problem if you had a black mark.

But if the start company does well, they will quickly switch positions. You will be the board member and if he succeeds, you will have the class point, the hailo um and you will have the midst reputation. Um so that was a very generous thing for the older investor to do to mental the Younger investor and to make sure the Younger investor got a success story, uh, next to his name.

Um and I think that something that the code does, maybe other venture capital companies do not do well, I think is interesting that when don valentine started the choir, he didn't call IT don valentine partnership. You know he called IT by the name of of a famous tree in in california so he didn't put his own ego on the door. Where's the other the other partnerships at the time? Kiner patterns were named after the egg liner and tom patterns or off rock uh uh and company named after athor rock.

And there are other examples uh like that. So I think the valentine deliberately didn't put his name on IT deliberate wanted to create um a partnership uh with other people and interestingly, in the ninety eighties when he had recruit a few other people but he was clearly the powerful founder when they had meetings together on valentine did not speak at the beginning because he didn't want his own opinion to set the pattern for the conversation. Encourage somebody else to lead the meeting and that way everybody felt free to express their own opinions and I think that tells you how don't valentine did create the um sort of D I N A of of of the partnership which which deliberately encourage Younger people to step up.

And the last thing that the valentine did, which was a really big contribution, is that he decided to retire, uh, before he really needed to. Nobody was first pushing out of the door, but he decided to step back, hand the leadership to uh Michael moritz and doug leoni and to to really kind of let them lead even though they were much Younger and less experienced uh and so again, um IT was not about his own personal ego. IT was about building a lasting institution.

这是 你为什么 说 风险投资。

是 一项 团队 运动 吗? yes. And and I think that team sport for making the partnership fifty years or more, but is also about specific investments.

There are times when several different people, I can manage to get an investment to work if they work together as a team. And you one example would be um the investment in facebook that was done by accel capital. You know IT was first identified by a very Young um associate who was not even a proper member of excel but was a student at stanford. And X, L.

Was you paying him a bit of money to bring ideas that came up from, you know, stanford and he noticed that facebook was popular among the stanford students and so he told one of the people that are at x capital to check IT out um that person was called Kevin africy and he checked that out and he did the early work of trying to um get a facebook to talk to him. Then he brought one of the founders uh of X L who was maybe sixty years old to come and see them and the two of them one of them is about thirty, one of them age about sixty. Jinky assessed uh, facebook.

And then he took another investor who was in between maybe forty five years old, to finally persuade a facebook to let X, L be the one to invest. So IT was a team of multiple people, and that was excel. But again, if we go back to the choir, they have a habit when they have a successful exit and one of their companies is sold. Or as an I P, O, they write a memo that lists all of the different people at the choir who contributed to the success of the investment and and they emphasize the team, not the individual.

is the Young person's game. Wow.

you know, I think I can be the Young person's game partly because, you know entrepreneurs, uh, are often quite Young and IT helps to be you know the same as of uh you know can help to be the same age when you are trying to build a relationship you know but that depends um if we take the example of bill gi at benchmark, one of the old time fantastic investors. Um he was quite a bit older than uh travis Carter nic when he invested in kind and uber um which of course was a very big success. H so sometimes experience um if IT is coupled with an emotional intelligence, right uh so that uh uh an older investor who has the experience has the authority but has the emotional skills to connect with a Young entrepreneur that can be a very powerful combination.

我 非常 喜欢 您 在 书中 说到 的 一句话, 每 一代人 都 必须 获得 自己的 成功。 硅谷 的 基金 们 会 怎么 遴选 他们的 接班人 呢? 红杉 的 二代 掌门人 相比 他的 创始人 风格 展现 了 很大 的 差异, 可以 对比 聊聊 唐 瓦伦丁 和 他的 接班人。

It's interesting。 I mean, Michael marit is an example of somebody who really had a different background uh, to to the other people in silicon valley.

I mean he wasn't really blue color to go back to your early a question but he grew up um in the united kingdom in whales so not in not in a famous city um and he was just ish uh which may may be a little bit outside the mainstream of uh british life um and as soon as he uh finish his studies at oxford, uh he immediately went to amErica uh and he studied in amErica and then he became a journalist so he was a writer at time magazine. He wrote a couple of books and then he became an entrepreneur. The company he started didn't do very well and then he joined sqa.

So he do all these different things. And he was not an engineer by training. He was not um a sales person. Uh he did not go to stanford.

And so in many ways he was not a typical a so icon valley kind of character, yes, and very different to, you know, uh, don't valentine, don't valentine. As I said, with this poverty built in the navy, water, water play in a quite a sort of rude to people who are too fancy. You know, he like to pick a fight with him.

You know, when I went to interview him before he died, he picked fights with me before I can see him. You know, he would say, who are you? I don't like you. And this is stupid.

And then he would not have, like, not answer the email for for another week or two and then he would say, well, let's talk on the phone and he would shouted me at the beginning of the phone call because he wanted to just test me and see if I was well worth talking to and finally he agreed to see me and I went all the way to arizona where he was living uh and um on the way to the meeting I was in the uber uh and I telephone him from my cell phone and said i'm coming among the way and he said, oh, go away I don't want to talk to you you know this is a certainly stupid meeting and I would say. Hope, and i've come all away from england to see you. And I live in london, and i'm in arizona and i'm almost there at the uber.

You must see me. And then he would see me, and he would spend two years talking to me. He was very charming, but he was a difficult test sometimes where as a Michaels is this elegant writer, you know, very captured, very kind of wise and also a little bit aggressive sometimes but um but but very different characters. So uh I think IT IT IT tells you something about don valentine's talent that he was willing to choose a successor who was similar to him in that he could be competitive and aggressive and hungry um but different to him in that he he was he was just a very different character.

The decline was maybe a little bit more like um don't valentine in his style of uh upbringing you know he also was a bit more blue color um he had uh grown up uh as the sun of the italian immigrants and so the resented the richer kids and we want to to prove that you know by working incredibly hard um he could get ahead a he was an engineer. He'd worked uh as an engineer earlier around and so he had more of the a on valentine kind of personality and by the way, also of the physical appearance you know a very strong guy who who lifted weight get up early in the morning lift. So I think you know, in one of my early drafts of my manuscript I wrote something around, you know how he had did the heavy build of a weight lifter when he found out I was writing that he had got very cross and said, oh i'm fit i'm i'm i'm i'm fit but i'm not just a meat um but he really is built in a very strong um where's in a Michael mortes. So if you know slim and likes to go on bicycles and exercise by being a fast cyclist, you know don't valentine is that like that? And and and and double right that so in a different characters um but that's the strength of the partnership um you know rule of bother who then was chosen to be the next leader of koa in amErica uh is a rugby player uh south african type of character again a different sport and a different personality.

为什么 硅谷 的 V C 总是 倾向 于 同时 任命 2个GPM?

I think that they so the a team um was Better than an individual. Sometimes that was a bit of a sensitive question whether you know the Michael murray uh dug ly only partnership was you know two equals or whether Michael Marks was really the more equal the the the more senior one. Uh and I don't think they ever really quite agreed on that um but um in any event, uh, I think the ability to work uh in a team and to understand that it's not about individuals, it's about square, uh is important to the institution. Uh my impression is that in korea, china is a bit different.

Neo shen has been the undercut leader all the time um and so they have a slightly different model in a way though the fact that um the american leaders of uh sqa we're willing to choose neil change and allow him to become the dominant person and have a more you know sort of single leader model then they would have an amErica that shows respect for you know the differences in china uh as you know at the beginning with uh koa china, they picked two people yeah uh one of those people left uh after a few years and shane became the undisputed top guy. Um so the americans let the chinese partners find their own their own correct model for china. Um and maybe that's another strength of scored when they were both running scot together.

And Michael marit, I think, had more of the sort of decision making about whether to have an office in china, whether to have an office in india, whether to start a hedge fund. Uh but ducky only was very important in making IT happen. Um you know, once they decided to have an off in china, doug ly only went to china to try to find people who could be the head of the OA china. And he met lot of people and he was a really hard worker and a really solid, solid leader. Uh, but I think maybe Morris had more of the sort of Sparkle and the vision.

我 很 好奇 的 是, 硅谷 风投 机构 的 leader, 他们 会 选择 在 多少岁 的 时候 退休?

Uh, well, I mean that depends on the individual. I mean, there are people who stand by as Young as you know, forty, and there are some who Carry on when that you know moving toward seventy。 So there's no rule um I think you know it's about how much energy you have, how much passion you have to Carry on finding new ideas. I think there are some people who are as they get older, they are more key to stay uh as venture capitals because the bus of meeting Young entrepreneurs urs and and having ideas uh so keeps you Young.

如果 红杉 失败 了, 会 是因为 什么?

Yeah, I mean, I suppose school is making in a big dangerous beat. For example, opening an office in a new place or starting a new kind of uh business uh line. Um I think they they're pretty careful when they do that not to make IT so big that they would really risk um risk the the whole thing. So I think the the way the venture capital companies, when they very establish can can fail is by choosing the wrong person to be the next leader. If you if you choose somebody who you know alienates the colleagues, the other talent starts to live and set up other companies, then you can fail.

And I think in a way that's what happened with kinds parkins that there was a time in the ninety nineties when there were several very talented people at the top there was john door but there was also a venot cosla um who was you know as good as john door and the two of them together were a great partnership and there was some other people as well who kind of made the culture of the organza work. And when those other people left, john doe was out of the so boss and he just wasn't very good at doing that by himself。 So if you chose the wrong person, then I think you can h destroy the franchise.

在 硅谷 的 风投 的 历史上, 还有 两个 疯狂的 大人物, 孙正义 和 尤里 米尔纳。 他们 从 多 大程度 改变 了 硅谷 的 游戏规则 呢?

Yes, both masson and uri mila had the idea of investing bigger amounts of money into companies. So not just when they're very, very Young, but but later when they might be about to do. And I P A gone, the stock market.

H, you know, maso's sonant and your woman would say, well, instead of going to get money capital on the stock market, why did you stay private a bit longer? I'll give you the money. Uh, and so this is cool growth investing, which ized the company to grow.

嗯, once it's already going, it's already got customer is already ready, doing well, but it's gona grow to a bigger size without going to the public stock market. And you know, that becomes a very powerful way of making a lot of money when all the tech sector is going up. But IT also becomes a powful way of losing money when all of the tech sector goes down because you you know you're writing big checks and you're kind of betting on just technology doing well as opposed to a particular starts, tup doing well.

这 两个 疯狂的 男人 都 没有 出 生于 美国, 他们 一个 来自 日本, 一个 来自 俄罗斯。 但是 改变 了 硅谷 的 游戏规则, 您 怎么看 这个 现象?

Well is a good sign of how silicon valley has been open to foreign talent. Uh and the rules have allowed somebody to come in and shake things up, which I think is one source of innovation. Uh you know famously incident valley like uh two fifth or forty percent of the companies that get founded or started by h somebody not born in the united states. Um so it's it's a system that that relies on fresh talent from outside, and I think that's one of the streng society.

C convey, 为什么 孙正义 这种 激进 的 投资 风格 这么多年 都 有效, 但是 最近 却 失效 了? 您 怎么 看待 他 最近 的 一条 新闻 是 声称 要 淡出 软银 的日常 经营管理。

Yeah, I mean, that's the thing about that. This big checks into establish tech companies on the theory that begin to grow really, really fast. You know IT works and makes a lot of money if IT goes right um but IT also collapses.

If all of the tech stock suddenly collapse and you've got these big investments in big tech companies, they just are going to go down really fast. Um and so master son was the richest man in the world, in the two thousand, and then the ck market crashed in march two thousand and he lost something like ninety seven percent of this money, ninety seven percent. And the same thing happened recently where you know during the early part of covered technology stocks did incredibly well and in twenty twenty one, uh master SHE son was probably making more money.

Uh then anybody in the world may be apart from elon mask and then uh you know the technology sector crashed and massive song lost a ton of money and I think you know he's done well for a long time, but very volatile. Now he says he's stepping back. We'll see if he remains a in the background, sometimes people say they are living, but they are too addicted to the excitement of investing to really fade away.

还有 一些 别具特色 的 风投 机构, 比如说 benchmark founder fundy c 和 XL, 他们 对于 风投 历史 的 贡献 是什么 呢?

Well, why c is a good one to start with, because it's so different. Why combination was started in two thousand five and the idea was that I would create a summer camp for a students who were maybe studying in a computer science and they had an idea for a company um and they had a friend maybe to help them, but they really just had an idea. They had nothing more than idea and they would come to y combinator and first in boston and then later I was in silent valley uh and they would work on the new idea um and they would spend maybe eight weeks or ten weeks um in this sort of summer camp every tuesday.

They would come to at the summer camp and they would meet the other Young computer scientists trying to have ideas for companies and they would have an informal, uh, a meal together, listen to a lecture uh they were hanging out with a program the founder of y combinator who would give them some advice um and at the end of the eight weeks or the end of the ten weeks they would give a report on. What they had achieved to try to develop the idea and then they will try to get a real venture capital investment. But so I was really kind of preventive capital.

IT was the earlier part of the development, and IT was a way to make IT easier for somebody who came from outside citizen valley, from outside the establishment to go from just having an idea in your head to actually having a proper company plan. And why combination did very well. Um you know some of the early examples um of companies that came out of that was strike uh which became a very very powerful wealthy payments company uh filter company uh in in the U S.

And also A B N B A client of this uh so uh that did extremely well。 That was the contribution of right combatting the idea of the incubator for venture capital. You mentioned a benchmark yes.

Uh uh and benchmark was more the traditional early stage um series a from the rather like excel X L got started earlier in the ninety eighties. And the idea was to be specialized in certain kinds of technology. They are specialized in software. And and then benchmark came in nineteen ninety five uh and had the idea again of um not investing um a lot of money but going early and really uh focusing on a few founders that they thought we are particularly promising and having the benchmark a partner really become A A partner to the entrepreneurs, go on the board and invested a lot of energy and time in helping that entrepreneur build the company so that the sign of classic series A A venture capital model um and found this fund started um another ten years later in two thousand and five.

So again X L one thousand and eighty three benchmark nineteen ninety five found found two thousand and five so is about ten years between each of these and we found this from the idea was to put the found the first to to respect the not to have the threat of firing the entrepreneur. And if the venture capitalist decided that the entrepreneurs, no good family friend, wanted to promise, uh, that he would always support the entrepreneurship. Ter, what happened? Uh, and that therefore gave the emphasis on finding a lightly crazy entrepreneur who maybe would be very unconventional, but nonetheless the investors would always support that entremets IT was founded by Peter teo, uh, who made contrary ism into a bit of a religion uh, and also was the first person to write about the paralo uh, which became my book title uh and to emphasize how it's all about backing some crazy people who do crazy things that make tons of money and don't worry about the majority of the companies .

that may feel 在 您 书中 出现 的 这些 大名鼎鼎 的 风险投资 家 们, 他们 有 共性 吗? 是什么 让 他们 站在 了 舞台 中心?

I mean one thing that they have in common is they have to be good at um the emotional intelligence side of investing you know with with hetch funds. You can be very analytical and not talk to very many people and that's fine with venture capital. You have to go and meet the entrepreneur.

You have to become um you know connected with the entrepreneur and you have to really be that the entrepreneurs, the companies in difficulty and its friday night and you receive a phone call on the entrepreneurs know ready to give up because you know two people have quit and the product is not going very well under some problems. You have to be willing to kind of go with that started and um sit with the entrepreneur through the weekend and IT encourage them to have the courage to get up and go again. So there is emotional intelligence site venture capital, which I think all list all of these these must have.

这 带来 了 下一个 问题, 就是 风险投资 人和 您 之前 写 的 那本书 富可敌国 里 描述 的 对冲基金 的 基金经理 们, 这 两个 群体 所 需要 的 资质 和 禀赋 有 差异 吗?

Yes, when i've just mentioned that the venture capital more about meeting people, hedge fun people in the way, can be rather insider. You know, there was a joke when I read my book about hetch funds that one of the hatch fund managers, lw bacon, uh, became very successful and bought an island, a private island. And people said he doesn't make any difference because he's already like an island. You know, he's already this single person behind lots of different trading screens, screen here, screen there, screen there. He's hiding and he's unit by himself so he can have an island and be by himself.

But there's no difference. 这些 人中 您 最 欣赏 谁?

Well, in a way, I would say, Michael, from had the age to really change, robi oir was to go from a small silicon vi 呃, early stage company investor to setting up in china, setting up in india, setting up inside asia, creating a growth investment business, creating a hatch fund inside sequoia, even creating an and diamond investment business, which is another kind of structure. So he was willing to really beat the franchise.

And when you ask him, which is your favorite investment you've ever done, he won't say IT was yahoo, which invested in. He won't say IT was google, which he invest in. He will say IT was secured itself because making best on Green squair is the thing that he is the most proud of.

非常 有意思 的 一点 是, 他 也是 当年 在 时代 杂志 报道 过 other rock 的 记者。

was a journalist, and he also wrote a couple of books before he became an investor. And of course, one of the things he wrote about was in business leaders and the first book was actually about uh, Chris la, the big car company which had which had gone wrong and gone bankrupt t to nine thousand and seven deny so that was a book about how big companies can be to burek rates and fail and then the second book he wrote was about a apple and Steve jobs so that was about how a small company can be exciting and succeed and along the way, uh Michael Morris also wrote a cover story and time magazine, bad. And that allowed him to understand what venture capital was and how IT worked. So I think through his rating, he was a student of entrepreneurship and big companies and venture capital. So we understood a lot about investing before he became an investor.

What did he choose to become an venture capital? I you know .

he always said later that he wished he had done IT earlier. I think key you know had become a writer because he thought he was an exciting way to study the world um and then at a certain point he wanted to just not study the world, but actually you know make the money himself and you know make an impact maybe not just to writing but through um making investment decisions.

投资 人们 总是 会说, 投资 的 诀窍 在于 投 对的人。 在 您 看来。

什么 是 对的人 呢? Well, I think IT is festival having A A different idea. You know, if you do a start up and you do something that another companies already doing, there's no way I can work right, because the other companies established is big, is more powerful.

The only way you can win is by doing something new. So you have to have that idea and then you have to have the character to believe in that idea even though most people are saying it's not onna work um because it's new and you know IT looks crazy at the beginning. And so you have to have the the belief in yourself to stick with the idea to work with that even when most people think you're crazy.

Uh and you have to be willing to accept that IT probably will fail. Most start up to fail. So IT takes a certain kind of um determination, self belief and almost um craziness to want to do this. Um so I think there is a some of the qualities that a venture capitalist is looking for.

在 这些 大人物 们 中, 谁 在 哪一个 项目 赚 到了 最多 的 钱? Among the big names who made the most money on a single deal I would say.

is probably the masson investment in alibaba i'm forgetting but I mean billions billions of donors he made uh because he invested very early in the global sex had done the early investment um but the leaders of goldman en sax decided that they wanted to be a bank and they didn't want to be a venture capital Operator and so they sold their investment stupidity very early to mass your his son a and so master SHE son son had the opportunity to get in and um and buy a chunk e of alibaba。 And then I went up and he held IT for a long time. So he made a really a billion dollars or not。

在 书中, 您 写道, 成功 有 很多 父亲, 硅谷 也不 例外。 在 您 看来, 谁 是 硅谷 的 成功 之 父?

But I think it's really uther rock. Uh and the reason I think that is that in adventure capital, I think was the key reason why city icon valley became the dominant technology center in the world uh for a long, long time until china became the big chAllenger. You know, some people when I began researching my book will tell me the the reason silicon valley did well was stand for university.

But that's not true because M I T was a Better engineering university at the beginning. Uh, some people told me that stands, that silent valley did well because um defense contracts were awarded to the icon valley companies and so the first semiconductors were sold to make weapons uh for the american uh military but this story about defense contracts isn't really the main reason because again, they were more defense contracts in the boston area than in silicon valley. So if you want to understand why silicon valley became the top, uh, place for innovation, it's because of the business culture because I had more startups, because the startup s we're more aggressive in trying to really build themselves and make commercial success.

Why did those startups have that culture in silicon value? I think it's because the venture capitalist made IT possible. They were willing to put money behind people who just had idea, even if they didn't really have any customers, even if they want sure if the product would even work.

And the venture capitalists were special incident valley. They took more risk. They were willing to accept failure. They understood the power law, which said that a few successes could make up for all of the losses when you are doing very risk investing. And so if you want to understand the origin of silicon value, you have to understand the origin of venture capital. And that origin came when athrob invested in fetch semiconductor in one hundred and fifty seven.

在 这些 大人物 中, 谁 是 您 认为 的 最 疯狂的 那个人?

Well, I was prety crazy. You know, he would, you know, make these beats very quickly, meeting companies sometimes for, you know, just half an A. Uh and then he would say, yes, i'm going to back you and i'm going to give you a lot of money and then instead of being a bit worried about his investment, he would say to the entrepreneur, I want you to be bigger, faster, crazy uh, and so entrepreneur often a bit crazy, and he would try to make them even more crazy. Uh, so I think if you want crazy, your ship was crazy。

很少 有人 关注 到 风投 网络, 是什么 让 您 关注 到 这个 人际网络 存在 的 网络 在 哪些方面 驱动 了 创新?

Yes, to ork innovation because it's all about connecting the entrepreneurs to other people who can help them build the company. So when you have to start up, you always have to fight to persuade talented engineers to come and work and help to you to build the product. And the engineers are frightened about joining your company because I might fail at the beginning.

And then you have to hire talented sales people to sell the product. And the sales people don't want to join because they are frightened that IT might fail. But if you have a venture capital who is a famous venture capitalist, the venture capitals can say to the early engineers and sales people, look, if you join the startup and IT fails, don't worry.

Because I have lots of other startups that I am backing and I will get you a job at one of these other places. So when I was doing my research, I spoke to eric smidt, who became the chief executive of google early, and at first didn't want to join a google. He said, look this, find this.

Larry page to and sergi brain. They are very Young, they are very arrogant. They do not respect anybody who is over thirty years old. Uh, and I am arch mid. I am the chief executive of another software company.

Why would I take the risk of joining these Young guys when they might just decide they don't like me and kick me out and john dr. Said, you know he was the venture capitalist um who was persuading erh mitt to a join google john Doris said, yes, eric, you're right. They are very arrogant. They might kick out but don't worry, if they do that, I will make you the chief executive of another software company. Uh and so I think by turning a single shot game, which is very risky into a repeat game, venture capitals create the courage that entrepreneurs need that um the people who join uh startups need.

Uh and in this way, I I I sometimes call venture capital a machine for manufacturing courage because the network creates the courage that venture capitalists need, uh uh sorry that that entrepreneurs need and that uh early engineers who join the startups in the courage needs to be created and they won't have the courage unless the venture capitalists there to say, don't worry, i'm going to give you the capital. I'm going to help you. I'm gona show you how you build the startup. I've done IT before with other startups. Trust me, I can make IT work.

您 在 书中 引用 了 一个 观点, 我 觉得 非常 有趣, 大量 的、 松散 的 关系 比 少数 的、 紧密 的 关系 更 有利于 思想 的 分享 和 创新。 相比 少量 的 强 关系, 大量 的 弱 关系 能 产生 更多 的 信息 流通。 可以 进一步 阐释 这一点 吗?

yes. I mean, when I was thinking about why the boston technology center, which had M I T uh as the best engineering university and which had a lot of um technology companies like racy on which was a big defense company uh one digital equipment CoOperation. Um so IT was a very strong engineering and a tech center but in the one nine hundred and eighty, silicon valley overtook IT and did Better. And I was trying to understand why the silicon valley do Better. And uh I came up with this idea not from economics because I couldn't find anything in omics that I explain this, but rather from sociology and this theologist called mark granvelle, who wrote a paper called the strength of weak ties.

And this point was that if you have um let's say um one hundred people in your attacks in your network and you know them not very well, but you know a little bit about them and you you you've done some communication with them and you know them enough to send them a message um that might be Better when you're trying to think of a company, build a company and find customers for your company, then if you have, let's say, twelve people and they are really good friends, you really work with them deeply and you have these deep ties because, you know, if you've got lots of loose ties, IT gives you lots of options. If you have a small number of deep ties, there are not so many this you can make about how you might hire new people or develop new customers. And really, the thing about boston is that people worked in companies and they stayed inside our company.

So they developed these deep ties with maybe twelve people inside that company who were their friends who work with them. costly. Where is in silicon valley? There were lots of startups.

People would join the startup. The startup would fail. After one year, they would join another.

Spent three years at that one, they would move around. They would show ideas with people from other startup. S who they used to work with five years. So there were lots of weak ties. And in that silicon valley system, ideas and money and people circulate very fast, and it's more productive, more faster. So if you think about a garden with lots of flowers, you need bees to fly around the garden buz buzz, buzz and move the poland from one flat to the other flower, and venture capitals like this connecting up all the flowers. Uh, and it's that that loose network with loose ties that creates more creativity than the kind of tightly a narrow boston system.

我知道你 有 一些 中国 的 企业家 和 投资人 的 朋友们, 您 怎么 看待 风险投资 进入 中国 以后 呈现出 的 中国特色? 中国 的 风投 和 硅谷 的 风投 最大 的 区别 是什么?

The chinese venture capital system did incredible well, really, really fast. Now starting with um you know alibaba a and by do and ten cent which did in the late nineteen nineties IT only talk about you know fifteen years for china to be as biggest uh silicon valley in terms of the creation of unicorns and and success. So I think one difference is that china grew faster.

Um of course, china had um a very fast growing economy at the time um growing at ten percent years sometimes. So I think that helped venture capital to grow very, very quickly. But in a way, what's amazing uh, about china and the story in china is how similar IT wants to the american story.

Uh, because you know the the style of the venture capital that I grew up in china was very closely linked to the american style because I was companies like sqa that brought the model to china. And so they had studied the american playbook and they often used um the same things like stock options for the early employees, which was no idea that came from amErica and I was used in china. Um so I think there's a lot of similarities as well as a few differences with the united states.

过去 20年, 中国 风投 率先 的 解放 的 不是 科学家, 而是 一批 在 手机 上 做 APP 的 人。 这 带来 了 中国移动 互联网 生态 的 蓬勃, 诞生 了 很多 我们 都 熟知 的 公司, 比如说 字节、 滴滴、 美团。 直到 最近 一两年, 中国 风险 投资业 才 开始 集体 的 转向 硬 科技 的 赛道。 您 怎么 看待 这个 现象?

I would say that you know china has also had quite a strong um medical technology sector. You would know Better than me.

But uh, I think you know it's not all apps, right? But what the other thing I would say is that um you know if you look at the american story, um the there was a phase of hardware when venture capital began。 So the only investments were semiconductors than they were in personal computers, than they were in reuters and equipment that would support the computer.

Um and then um from maybe nineteen ninety or so, uh software became a big deal. And with the internet um becoming established in around nineteen nineteen ninety five with the flotation of netscape, then um software and internet apps really began to dominate venture capital. And this was of course, the time when china got going in, in the late nineteen nineties.

And so IT was natural that because of where technology was in the late ninety ninety, yes, you know up developers in china were the main story for venture capital. But it's good to remember that there was before the nineteen nineteen this old hardware story. And maybe now we are going back to hardware, uh, both in china and in amErica to some extent because um things like, you know what, artificial intelligence is a new kind of software, I guess.

So that's that's that's that's pushing software into sort of deep tech um but is still software. But then this software like building drones and D J I M like building batteries. And I know the electric vehicle and battery industry is growing incredibly faster in china.

Um so I think the venture capital can be uh very useful for uh robotics and a deep tech hardware. Uh and I think it's natural to expect that in the next ten years, um you know maybe software will not be the only thing. There will be a hardware as well。

您 在 书中 提到 硅谷 式 的 风投 启动 了 中国 的 数字 经济, 并且 中国 的 风投 有 一项 显著 的 优势, 就是 它 对 女性 更 开放。 这是真的吗? 您 从 哪些 观察 中 得出 了 这个 结论?

Yeah, I mean, um when I went to china in nineteen ninety nine, you know, before go on this trip, I always try to ask people I know who are the most interesting and strongest investors and I came up with a list which I wasn't particularly you know looking for gender baLance. But IT turned out that there were several women on the list in china. Um you know cathead from capital today with one um i'm going to forget uh some of the other names .

but .

a gen fund uh I met Young yeah yeah and then to say the name wrong with 小 红圈, something had worked with tiger。

然后。

哦 对 yes O K yeah yeah yeah。 So I will see her. And and IT IT did seem like they were more women and of course, chilly in, 嗯, the taiwanese american, that golbin sex. Who was the first invest in alibaba with the way the in the athrob uh for the chinese venture world um because he did the alias a investment in net kick started everything and and again I know he was the Youngest woman partner at uh golden sex uh and so a pioneering woman uh and I thought that was interesting that there seems to be more women and maybe because um you know the american venture system got going. Way back in the fifty, sixty and seventies when there was less gender equality, where's the chinese one got going in the nineties and two thousands, and maybe things were a bit more equal.

作为 金融 历史学家, 你 怎么 看待 我 目前 所处 的 经济周期 和 您 历史上 研究 的 周期? 哪个 阶段 呈现出 了 相似 自信? 你 对 年轻 的 读者 们 是否 有 一些 应对 萧条 的 建议?

IT is rather similar to what happened in to 3 doesn't when the nasdaq a stocks exchange collapsed。 Um you know there was a lot of pain at that time. Enormous numbers of companies uh went fast um and in a way you could say just simplifying a little bit that there were two kinds of companies inside and value.

They were you know what they called vapor where meaning um you know sort of internet uh e commerce companies which only survive because they had cheap capital from venture capitalists um and they could do a lot of advertising to try to get customers. And when the cheap capital stopped, they couldn't advertise and they just went fast. So that was one kind of company and then the other kind was, uh so um I T companies that were set services to the first kind.

So when the first kind went bus, they went bus too. So a lot of companies um failed in that period in the early two thousands. And even a company like amazon, which we now think of, as you know, incredibly successful, uh, almost went back in that period and had a really hard time.

And so I think the lesson from history is, look, these things happen and they are very painful for maybe one or two years. Then the system is a hope goes through and you start getting big. Success is again.

And the reason is that fundamentally, technology is still the way to build. Wealth is still the way to build the future. And if you have good technology, uh, venture capital is the best way to invest in IT uh because you run lots of experiments with small investments in different stata ideas and some of them will hopefully work. And so I think fundamentally in venture capital plus entrepreneurs plus new ideas is the way to build the new future. And and um you know, even though we can go through these moments, which might last for a year too, we should keep our optimism.

最后 我想 问 您 一些 关于 写作 的 问题, 您 在写 这 本书 的 过程中 遇到 最大 的 挫折 是什么?

Well, there were setback. Ks, at the beginning because you know, people didn't necessarily want to tell me the secrets. They didn't want to spend you know two hours speaking to a writer um you know why would they spend that time? And so you have to build a network um and you have to get to know the people who will introduce you to other people, who will introduce you to the really important people.

So you have to be willing to spend a year to um networking uh and um that takes you know courage away because at the beginning, you don't know if you're going to ultimately get the success. But um the thing is i've done this before. I've done IT with hetch funds and and uh at the beginning, nobody wanted to speak to me and at the end everybody wanted to speak to me because by the end you know everybody has had that you have access to order the top uh, investors and so the other investors you haven't spoken entity yet, um they want to speak to you as well because they don't want to be left up.

And so I remember one moment with hedge funds when, you know I was having a sandwich by myself, uh just thinking about my book uh and my phone rang uh and IT was one of the hatch fund managers who had refused to speak to me before and now he was calling me and saying, well, maybe we should talk because he had learnt that and the man who had been his deputy for fifteen years, I just had uh dinner with me and had spoken for four hours uh and so he knew he Better speak to me. So this is what happens at the end of the project. At the end, everybody wants to talk to you. At the beginning, nobody wants to talk to you, but you have to kind of keep trying, and in the end, I think you succeed.

采访 完成 后, 您 会给 当事人 做 信息 核实 吗? 有人 会 感到 不 满意 而 要求 修改 吗? 您 会 如何 应对?

Yes, that's a good question because I do believe in um sharing the draft and and going through visions. And you know the reason is that um I think if you give the book manuscript like you give the draft to somebody uh and you say, look, I am an independent ratter i'm not promising to change things but I am promising to listen to what you say and then people will you to read IT and first of all, they might correct a couple of factual mistakes which is great but then they may also say, look, what you written is good, but you've missed out a whole emphasis, a whole angle that would be interesting as well.

And then you can talk for another two hours, and you get more access, and you learn more things, and you revise IT because you have learn more things. And that makes you a Better book. It's closer to the truth. And the reader benefits from a book that explains that things Better. And I didn't think you lose independence because you haven't promised to change IT.

And in the end, I wrote things that john do, I kind of perkins did not like, and I wrote some things that people like a choir did not like, uh, but you know, they understand that at least I listened. And more importantly, the reader understands that I really had deep access. And I went back for additional information and I revised the book to get closer to the truth.

I think that the square people wish there are certain things I had done differently. Um they also uh suffered a little bit uh in the europe because the european venture capital set of jealous and competitive with a and when I read my book and I said the score was great and you know that when koa came to europe, that would be the signal for the european venture capital system to do Better and take off and become Better, more swish. There were a lot of european and venture capitalists who got very angry and they attacked a are they attacked to me? Um uh but either hey uh uh I think that was a bit embarrass for a while physical but um it's okay you know that they're going to do fine. And um I think that on the other hand, I said a lot of positive things about the corner as well uh because they are the most successful venture company and I think they deserve a positive uh prefer um so you know they are a bit mad at me for some things, but mostly they are happy.

一般来说, 有 两类 成功 的 记者, 一种 是 像 您 这样 出版 图书, 成为作家。 另一种 是 成为 媒体 的 高层人士, 就像 您 妻子 那样, 她是 经济学 人的 总编辑。 您 认为 哪条 路 更难?

I think my wife you know is is definitely the superior journalist. You know she's editing a magazine, you know more than a million people read every week uh, that's a lot of power. Uh, and I have a lot of respect for her yeah, my books do well and you know maybe a few hundred thousand people read them uh, but it's not as influential as a top magazine like the economist.

您 从 什么时候 意识到 自己 要 成为 一名 作家?

When I was very Young, when I was fifteen or sixteen, I was asked at my school to say, what did I wanted to do for my job later? And I said I would like to be a journalist and a book writer, and that's exactly what I did. Uh, so I always wanted to do this.

您 的 记者 生涯 中有 体验 过 the power L O W D 的 魔法 吗? 写 完 这 本书 以后 的 power lord 理念 是否 知道 了 您 的 个人生活?

I do think that the idea of taking a risk and um betting on a difficult subject, doing something that other rightness have been done, taking a long time and understanding is going to be hard. So we'll take a long time. I think those kinds of a being a bit like an entrepreneur is the right approach for books sometimes.

I mean, I do spends you know five years on on on each book. That's a that's a lot longer than most writers choose to spend, and it's a big investment. But I think in the end, you create something more distinctive, more more different and and you have a chance of you know producing an original contribution.

And then if that works, then you know the first hundred people read IT and they think, oh, this is different, is good. And then they tell a hundred more people, their friends, and then they tell more people, and then you do get a parallel effect. And so I had that experience with my book about, uh, hatch funds. You know, when I first published, I hope that was good, but I didn't know how much you could sell and then bit by bit as more readers like IT, they told more other people and there was a kind of power or explosion in the sales. And what's interesting is that you know now it's been twelve years uh since um I read that book and still um every week is selling you know more copies and I still get emails from readers uh who say, oh I just read IT uh and so I never expected that book to be read for more than a decade uh but that's what's happened.

当 您 开始 写 一本书 之后, 您 的 工作 节奏 是 什么样 的 呢?

Well, you have to be flexible with your schedule because you have to fit in with the important um subjects you want to write about.

So if uh one of the venture capitalist I was trying to write about that would say, oh, uh, I could see you next week uh, what about lunch and sanford isco, uh, I would have to drop everything and go to some sisco and meeting for lunch and because you must miss that chance 嗯 and you know, if somebody else says, you know, um i'm going to meet you in sances go next week and then he cancels and you must get angry you must just say, hey, no problem let's just we schedule, uh, what about next week, you know and you have to be ready to do what IT takes to to get to see those people because that's what that's the only way you can understand the secret methods of how you invest venture capital. Um and so I think you know, when that was not happening, I would have a routine with my writing. I would basically get up in the morning.

I try to sleep as much as possible. I believe in a lot of sleep, then I would exercise quite hard for maybe fourteen minutes. H to really feel strong and fresh and then I would be able to get to my uh desk with a big cup of coffee and right for nine or ten hours um uh with all that sleep and all that coffee and all that exercise, uh, inside me, uh, and the best kind of day is where, you know, nobody y's email ing me, nobody's telephoning me.

I just get to think about the writing and there's no interruption. That's how I really make progress with the writing. But you know, as I said, if somebody from one of my sources is in touch, then I have to drop the writing straight away and respond to them.

您 写作 过 五 本书, 哪 一本书 是 您 最 喜欢 的?

嗯? I think the biggest tiny point was the hatch fund history. More money than god because IT was the first one that really sold a lot of copies.

Um and I had this same parent kind of made my put my name on the map um as as a writer who uh kind of benefit from the panel um and um the next book about out and Greenspan, uh one the financial times best book of the year awards. So that was quite a big prize so that was good. But I think that was less important than the breakthrough with more money than god.

My favorite book is probably the new new one uh, the power law because venture capitals are exciting, the the making of the new future, the discovery of new products, the excitement of building a start up company into a unicorn. I mean, there's nothing I think is magical is that um and so I think of all my books, the parallel is maybe the most exciting and although it's still a new book and IT looks as if the readers agree and is sold even more than more money than god. In amErica and in europe。

能不能 透露 您 下一步 的 写作 计划? Well.

I haven't exactly decided, but I am hoping to write something about artificial intelligence and um but I have to negotiates with the people is always this question of getting access through the right people. And so i'm just having conversations now to see if that's possible. This land is your land and this land is my land in the california to the new york guy and in the red wood for is to the ghost stream waters. This one was made for you and me.