We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Tesla's INSANE Plan to Make Billions of Humanoid Robots - with James Douma

Tesla's INSANE Plan to Make Billions of Humanoid Robots - with James Douma

2025/6/29
logo of podcast Dave Lee on Investing

Dave Lee on Investing

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
James Douma
Topics
James Douma: 我认为Optimus和FSD在战略上只有表面相似性,但特斯拉在技术和硬件方面的早期决策给予了他们巨大的优势。特斯拉押注神经网络和摄像头是正确的选择,并且提前投资将所有硬件装入汽车,这使他们能够收集重要数据。与FSD不同,人形机器人目前处于早期阶段,硬件至关重要。在机器人领域,关键在于能够达到规模,因为规模可以降低硬件成本。因此,目前的关键是投资于大规模生产可靠且功能强大的低成本机器人。特斯拉在硬件方面有优势,并且专注于硬件,这将是成功的关键。最终的关键在于制造高质量、高性能且低成本的机器人身体。要达到目标价格点,需要大规模生产。特斯拉似乎最明确地专注于设计出真正优秀、可制造且高性能的设计,以便一旦准备就绪,就可以扩大规模。测试需要大量的机器人,并且这些机器人会被淘汰。在我们获得数百万台的机器人之前,可能需要进行多次迭代。到2030年,特斯拉有可能达到年产百万台机器人,这意味着拥有一个值得生产一百万个机器人的设计。比其他公司更快地达到每年一百万台机器人的优势在于市场和网络效应。重要的是机器人的每小时或每年的成本,以及由此获得的功能。硬件是机器人方面更关键的限制因素。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the initial reactions and perspectives on Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot project. It compares the strategic approach to Optimus with Tesla's earlier work on autonomous driving, highlighting the differences and similarities.
  • Initial excitement about Optimus development mirrors that of autonomous driving.
  • Tesla's advantage stems from its early bet on neural networks and cameras, and its massive data collection through its fleet of vehicles.
  • Humanoid robotics presents a different challenge; hardware, particularly reliable and cost-effective mass production, is paramount.
  • Software development for robotics is advancing rapidly, potentially outpacing hardware readiness.

Shownotes Transcript

If you're interested in Tesla Robotaxi, Tesla AI or Tesla FSD, then you ought to know about James Douma.

He's probably the one person who's done the deepest public dives on Tesla FSD and Tesla AI over the years.

In fact, over the past 4 years I've published 40+ videos (!) with James Douma on Tesla AI/FSD (they are all on a playlist on my YouTube channel).

I first discovered James Douma a long time ago (maybe almost 8-10 years ago?) on a web forum called http://teslamotorsclub.com . Back then it was one of the only places for early Tesla owners and TSLA investors to discuss issues deeply. While I posted about investing topics, James posted about Tesla Autopilot and its hardware but in a way that was more thorough than anybody else.

When I started posting YouTube videos years later, I invited him on my channel to hear his thoughts on Tesla Autopilot/FSD. It was a riveting discussion and I was surprised at how much I could learn from him.

I invited him again for another interview on my channel, and once again I was floored by how much I was learning. So over the years, James has been a great resource for me (and many others) to keep pulse on what Tesla is doing with FSD and AI (and even robotics).

He doesn't have his own YouTube channel. He doesn't have any paid services or subscriptions. He probably has mixed feelings about so many people knowing about him. But I appreciate his willingness over the years to be available and help the Tesla community by offering his insights and knowledge.

Here's an hour+ discussion on Optimus humanoid robots with James Douma.

Social 🐦 Twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/heydave7 🎧 Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dave-lee-on-investing/id1493031991 🎙️Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2iin015s0k21Bt4ldep9XT?si=uBV4Ft8hQEu_GE4YSIDDGg 📸 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/heydave7 Dave Lee on Parenting, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWD9b1BZqi2G2u30sGYIFrA

NOTE: Please don’t fall for scammers who might impersonate me or others in the comment section. I do NOT give out my number or ask people to contact me.

💁🏻‍♂️ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.

Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/#post-485768

#Tesla #TSLA #Stocks

Subscribe to Dave Lee on Investing) on Soundwise)