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cover of episode AI and the Global Battle for Tech Supremacy

AI and the Global Battle for Tech Supremacy

2024/12/19
logo of podcast The New Bazaar

The New Bazaar
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C
Cardiff Garcia
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Jeffrey Ding
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Jeffrey Ding：我认为对一个国家而言，最重要的是发展通用技术，而不是成为第一个开发出新技术的国家。通用技术能够提升经济的各个部门的生产力、效率和创新能力。例如，计算机的应用不仅仅局限于科技行业，而是让各行各业的工人都能够更高效地工作。此外，一个国家还必须擅长将这些通用技术扩散到整个经济中，确保它们能够被广泛应用，从而提升整体的生产力和创新能力。我认为美国在这两个方面都比中国更有优势。 Jeffrey Ding：我认为电动汽车虽然重要，但并非通用技术，因为它主要应用于交通运输领域。而人工智能则不同，它能够从根本上改变包括电动汽车在内的各个行业。过去，电力、蒸汽机和计算机都是典型的通用技术，它们引发了工业革命，并极大地提高了生产力。我认为我们应该对识别下一个通用技术保持谦逊，但人工智能目前看来最有潜力。人工智能的持续改进、在不同行业中的广泛应用，以及专利引用等指标都表明了这一点。当然，生物技术也可能具有通用技术的潜力，因为生物技术对人类健康至关重要，能够提高劳动力的生产力。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter introduces Jeffrey Ding's theory, which posits that a country's ability to develop and diffuse General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) is more crucial for economic dominance than being the first to invent them. GPTs enhance productivity across all sectors, and effective diffusion ensures widespread productivity gains. The US holds a significant advantage over China in both aspects.
  • Developing GPTs is more important than being first to invent them.
  • Effective diffusion of GPTs is crucial for widespread productivity gains.
  • The US has a significant advantage over China in both GPT development and diffusion.

Shownotes Transcript

It’s not often that someone comes up with a new, provocative, and persuasive theory about the competition between the US and China to be the world’s leading economic and technological superpower. The topic is so salient right now, the source of so much commentary, that it’s hard to say something that hasn’t already been said many, many times. 

But this episode’s guest, Jeffrey Ding — a scholar of international relations at the George Washington University and the author of a new book called Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition — has done just that.

And the short version of Ding’s theory goes like this… 

It’s not as important as you might think for a country to be the first one to develop the new technologies of the future. What really matters are two things. 

First, that the technologies a country does develop are General Purpose Technologies. These are technologies that make every sector across the economy more productive, more efficient, more innovative. The personal computer and other information technologies, for example, didn’t just make the tech sector more productive. Workers in every industry use computers to be better at their jobs. 

And the second thing that matters is that a country be especially good at diffusing, or spreading, those General Purpose Technologies throughout the whole economy, precisely so that those technologies can make everyone more productive. 

And as Jeff argues, the US already has big advantages over China on both of these indicators. But why? What makes a country better at technological diffusion? What are the leading contenders for the general purpose technologies of the future? And what policies can a country put in place if it wants to become or remain the world’s dominant economic superpower?   

You’ll find answers to those questions and more in this episode’s chat with Jeffrey Ding. 

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