Shownotes Transcript
Hello and welcome to World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing. Coming up, the Chinese mainland has launched combined drills around Taiwan in warnings to separate the forces. China's foreign minister says China and Russia are "friends forever."
Tuesday marks a key anniversary of China-India diplomatic ties, so we're going to explore why bilateral ties are at a critical stage. And over there in France, far-right political leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from the 2027 presidential race. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching World Today.
The Chinese mainland has kicked off joint exercises involving the country's army, navy, air force and rocket forces around Taiwan. The People's Liberation Army says the drills are a serious warning and forceful deterrence against the Taiwan independence forces and a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China's sovereignty and national unity.
and the exercises are mainly focusing on sea air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, assault on maritime and ground targets, and blockade on key areas in the sea lanes. The drills came after Taiwan's Lai Ching-teh government unveiled 17 measures hostile to the Chinese mainland.
So joining us now on the line is Dr. Liu Kuangyu from the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Thank you very much for joining us, Dr. Liu Kuangyu. First of all, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson of the Chinese government's Taiwan Affairs Office, said the military exercises this time are a firm punishment for the Lai Ching-de administration's rampant pro-independence provocations. So, would you agree that Lai Ching-de and his administration...
is making rampant provocation to advance their pro-independence agenda.
Yes, I totally agree with this statement. I think the extent of Lai's deliberate provocations can be analyzed from quite a few perspectives. First, Lai's provocation for independence are both extremely absurd and exaggerated claims and practical supporting policies. So that's both talk and act. And it's not just talk, but there is a clear roadmap for the project of Taiwan independence that he's carrying on.
And second, it's very obvious the lie this time is trying to deliberately intensify and speculate on cross-strait conflicts. And part of his intention is to serve his own internal politics goals.
on the island especially the large-scale uh dismissal and the future elections so what he want is to intentionally fan the flames on both sides of the strait and then bring the fire back to the island so this kind of frantic approach to causing trouble for the sake of taiwan independence and his own power
is highly provocative. But it shows that Lai Ching-Ting is not afraid, not afraid to sacrifice peace and stability and prosperity on both sides of the strait, and only for his own purpose, goal, intention of Taiwan independence, and seeking for power. And furthermore, since coming to power, Lai has been trying to piece together his so-called lifestyle system of Taiwan independence discourse, which has evolved from the two nation theory and the motherland theory,
And then now today, the enemy nation theory. So not only does Lai believe there are two sides of the straits not affiliated with each other, and Taiwan does not so-called belong to China, but he even advocates this cross-strait relationship.
hostility, confrontation and even wars, conflicts. So this is very harmful and provocative. And he has reached a new peak of DPP administration's advocacy for independence and directly touches the right line of the street. So if this is not rampant provocation
So what else is there? Yeah. So one observation is that since he took office, Leijinda has pushed green terror policies on the island, meaning
whoever calling for, say, national reunification or favoring exchanges with the Chinese mainland will face coercion. Is this in line with your observation? Yes, it is quite consistent with my observations. It seems to me that Lai actually has perhaps a three-step plan.
the first is uh so-called targeted elimination uh lie as a politician we notice very with a very uh extremely stubborn mindset towards taiwan independence as well as narrow-minded and paranoid personality so he can hardly tolerate anyone who does not share the same stance on his
and is even more fully manifested after he sees the highest power on the island. So he will definitely use various methods and policies of physical elimination or silencing or expulsion to make it physically impossible for all the island's people who dare to bring about cross-strait exchanges, national ratification,
on the island, those sort of ideas. The second is we can call it chilling effect. Of course, Lai cannot offer a butcher knife or a big stick to all the people on Taiwan. So for the rest who are watching, or we can say they are the silent majority, I think Lai will use this target elimination to make an example of them and create panic, create terror, horror, so that people will not dare to talk about the truth.
And lastly, I think in the future he will promote a so-called green terror throughout the island, maybe even towards more Taiwan independence terrorism, not just terror, terrorism. So that is, I mean, he will not only shout and try to fight with the Chinese mainland, but also directly persecute the people of Taiwan.
on the island who have different views on their personal safety, on their politics status, economic status, and also legal status. So as to create a martial law, militarized, or Taiwan independence dictatorship, that sort of politics and society. That is, I think, what I say, Taiwan independence terrorism, and that is the society he wants to achieve in Taiwan.
From the perspective of military tactic, what aspects of the drills this time around do you think deserve our attention? Well, first of all, I think we can see the timing and rhythm of the mainland's two military drills and training activities after the so-called 17 articles. Both the first time and
to take a stand and try to discipline and try to punish the Taiwan independence. But also we have this unexpected, very large scale push, push the limit of compression for the Taiwan military response. Both their time and space, the time and space for their military response and fully, I think, demonstrated
PLA's full-time readiness to fight and also immediately able to fight and also the ability to fight to win the battle against Taiwan independence that's what our DOD has said so as well as the we can see also in in in our Chinese classic we can say the so-called water is not always the shape of the army attack I mean this is there is a special tactical
application uh you can see we call it the arts of war and that that that has been demonstrated in the recent drills and secondly i think the scale of the military exercise and the subjects of the access show that we are not only to punish the taiwan independence forces uh to show uh our absolute uh
advantage over the Taiwanese army, but also the comprehensive dominance of the entire Taiwan Sea and airspace, and also the coverage of key roads and areas.
and the general comprehensive control of the whole region. So I think this actually a warning, a very strong signal of denial to those who fantasy interference, the so-called external forces. I think they can receive this sort of signal that you are not allowed to go in. We are ready for destruction.
We have been well-planned and disciplined. And so lastly, this exercise in which the Chinese mainland military and maritime police departments work together to jointly implement our sovereignty, our governance and jurisdiction over Taiwan Strait, I think it's also a slap in the face of so-called non-fliation between the two sides of the straits that La Qingdao has
advocated. So this is also something we call a legal basement for this military exercise. So I guess somehow people really need to abandon this kind of assumption that the Chinese mainland will not use force against those
pro-independence separatist forces. I guess that's a very clear message from Beijing. So actually, American Defense Chief Peter Haxas has just made a trip to Japan where he said over there that
"America is committed to sustaining robust, ready and credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait." He also touted the US-Japan alliance in terms of the so-called defense of Taiwan. How dangerous do you think his comment here is? And do you think the Trump administration, for example, is genuinely committed to Taiwan?
Yes, it's a dangerous move that worth noting, but we know that headsets from Mars demonstrated Trump's administration's intention to more explicitly include Taiwan in its Indo-Pacific strategy, also actually using Taiwan to strengthen its Indo-Pacific allies and defense integration. But actually, this is something that is easier to say than to do. Obviously, Japan is the U.S.'s most wanted ally,
friend or an ally to pull together in this region. And in addition to Japanese side of own attitude towards Taiwan, they're very ambiguous and very provocative attitude towards Taiwan. More importantly, actually, I think behind this is Trump's internal strategy
and strategy contraction for the pressure for their, they have to retrieve, they have to go back to the homeland of the US and the Americans first. So they have to push all their allies and partners to push them in the front to go to support so-called Taiwan, so-called support Taiwan and to try to curb China to bear the corresponding pressure and responsibility and cost
to boost their military spending and so that the US can enjoy a so-called low cost and containment of China with Taiwan. So of course, most of the current US allies today are not willing to act as the cannon fodder and or consumables
to some both for the US, but Japan seems to be the object that US rely at most. But the two sides actually they have their own agenda of each other. They have their own calculating. They're all hoping to hatch right, to push the other in the front. So they don't really have so-called obligations or commitments to Taiwan, but using this, trying to use this as opportunity.
So the final question before we let you go, Dr. Liu, for the Light Kingdom government in Taiwan, what do you think is the key lesson it needs to learn from what is going on elsewhere geopolitically across the world today, briefly?
yeah uh there are many lessons actually life should learn but i would like to raise one if not the most important i think mr lai is pretending there were no elephant in the room and not daring to recognize the responsibility for his provocation of and of independence and enormous pressure uh now he is under
I think he will, of course, try to lessen the impact of the public opinion. But PLA has already told Lai himself with these actions, Taiwan independence is a dead end, it's a desperate path. And if he walks down to the end, he will only end up losing his reputation and even political life. So I think this one thing he should have understood is the one phrase is do not say what you want to say. Do not say we have not
said before. Thank you very much for joining us. Dr. Liu Kuangyu joining us from the Institute for Taiwan Studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Coming up, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi says China and Russia are friends forever. Stay tuned. Hello, my name is Alessandro Golombievsky Teixeira. I'm a professor of public policy management at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
I am a great listener of The Wall Today. In my opinion, The Wall Today is one of the best China radio programs. In The Wall Today we can get the best news and analysis in what is happening now in the world. So please, come to join us!
You're back with World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing. China's foreign minister says China and Russia are forever friends. Wang Yi made a remark in a media interview published on Tuesday. The senior Chinese diplomat said the principle of quote-unquote friends forever, never enemies, is serving as a solid legal basis for advancing high-level strategic cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.
He welcomed the recent steps taken by Moscow and Washington to improve their bilateral ties, suggesting the current global conditions oblige big powers to be stabilizing forces. The Chinese foreign minister also said that Ukraine ceasefire negotiations should continue, adding that a peace deal must be binding and acceptable for all parties. Wang Yi is currently on a three-day visit to Russia.
So joining us now on the line is Professor Cui Hongjian from Academy of Regional and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University. Thank you very much for joining us. Hi. So friends forever, never enemies. Professor Cui, why do you think from a Chinese perspective, to say the least, this is the solid basis for strategic cooperation or coordination between Beijing and Moscow?
First of all, as we know, this close relations between China and Russia has been tested by the time. As we know for a long time, indeed, this kind of bilateral relations always are very, very high level, and not only because of a very, very good mutual trust between two leaders and especially governments, and even as we know recently,
economic cooperation provide more momentum for these bilateral relations. Also, both China and Russia, they are the biggest neighbors with each other. So we can understand how it is important
to have these good relations. Because according to the Chinese culture, always you should have a close neighbor. And then once you have some problem or some issues, and you can have some frankly exchange with the neighbors, and then you can provide support with each other. But of course, I think recently,
especially the background of international relations and also it looks like more and more geopolitical tensions. And I think it gives another very important reason for China and Russia to keep their close and friendly relations.
In terms of economic or trade sense, trade perspective, what kind of stability do you think China and Russia can bring to the world together by working together with one another? You know, even earlier before decades, it looks like economic trade relations was not a highlight for these bilateral relations between China and Russia.
But in recent years, I think the situation changed a lot. Just like Mr. Wang pointed out during his visit to Moscow, today, both the countries, especially bilateral trade volume, has been nearly $215 billion. So I think now it gives more and more strong support to these relations.
And indeed, as we know now, for the world economy, it lacks of the momentum and also driving force for some more recovery. But I think there's stability and also the growth in relations between China and Russia on economic area could provide also very, very clear confidence for the economy. Okay.
So why do you think China would genuinely feel happy and even encouraging if Russia and the United States could somehow improve their bilateral ties? As we know, the attitude from China towards these relations, especially recently, as we know, more negotiations and exchange between U.S. and Russia, it could be on the stand of China itself and also in the interest of China.
As we know, the general purpose from China's foreign policy is to look forward to some more exchange and also even cooperation between major players in the world. And as we know now, once there are some more exchange, some more mutual confidence and also mutual trust,
between major players. Certainly, it will provide some more stable basis for international relations. But of course, I think that China will also try to be part of this process to promote mutual trust between major players, not only between US and Russia.
So with regard to the peace prospects for the Ukraine crisis, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi suggested that it's actually a matter of no pains, no gains. So at this point, for example, when peace talks have already generated some positive results for sure, but in the meantime,
The reality is diverging views and difficult situations on the battlefield, for example, remain. So at this point, what role do you think China can play in terms of helping achieve more gains? I think China will play a kind of consistent role.
in the crisis of Ukraine. Even recently, as we know, yes, some stakeholders have tried to push forward this peaceful solution and to find out more opportunity for negotiations, not only between US and Russia, especially between, I think finally, between Russia and the Ukraine. And indeed, I think European countries could be part of the negotiation.
So I think that China now is trying to, you know, welcome all of this situation to open the door for the peaceful solution. But at the same time, I think that China will keep a very close observation and China will still play a more constructive role to
to support the process of a peaceful solution, also, you know, sustainable and also the result could be accepted by all of the stakeholders, including China. So I think the international community
and also more member states of the international community including China could be part of the effort. Part of the effort. Of course, China has a genuine wish regarding the peace prospects for Ukraine.
Some people might speculate that China is unwilling to see an end of the crisis to allow for the US to relocate its resources to Asia to combat China's presence. I think this kind of idea sounds like nonsense from a Chinese perspective. Now, so the final question before we let you go, Professor Tsui, we know this year is marking a key anniversary of our humanity's victory against the fascism in history.
What do you make of the realistic meanings of China and Russia celebrating this key anniversary together to the world today?
So firstly, we need to understand what does it mean for the people, for the countries to celebrate the anniversary of the victory against the fascism. I think the important thing is we need to learn something more from the history, how to stop any kind of risks for this mistrust and also some more geopolitical tensions.
Another I think important thing for both China and Russia and even some other countries in the world is we need to you know take all of the resources and also make every kind of effort to You know stop the copy of the historic Target college as we know the World War two or some other general geopolitical conflicts It create produce so many I mean
of sufferance and also so many, you know, so much, I mean, damages for the society and for the human being. So I think now it's time, not only for China and Russia, and also most members of the international community,
and to remember the historic lessons and try to provide some more positive solutions for any kind of current conflicts and tensions.
Thank you very much for joining us today. Professor Cui Hongjian joining us from Academy of Regional and Global Governance with Beijing Foreign Studies University. You are listening to World Today. I'm Ding Hen in Beijing. We'll be back after a short break. Welcome back. You're listening to World Today. I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on China and India to strengthen their mutual trust and bilateral cooperation to promote the healthy development of the bilateral ties.
The Chinese leader made the remark in a Tuesday phone call with his Indian counterpart, Durupati Marmul. Xi Jinping said China and India should view their ties from a strategic and long-term perspective, suggesting the two countries work together to advance multi-polarization and democratization in international relations.
And Tuesday is marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and India. China's foreign ministry on Tuesday also called for joint efforts to maintain peace along the two countries' border areas. Bilateral ties have been on a warming trajectory since President Xi Jinping met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Russian city of Kazan last year.
So joining us now on the line is Professor Wang Zhengxu from Zhejiang University. Thank you very much for joining us. Hello, Dinghan. It's good to be here with you. 75 years, of course, this anniversary is a key milestone, no doubt. Looking back, what do you make of some of the key experience and lessons as well that Beijing and New Delhi can somehow learn from the historical development of their biological ties?
Yes, definitely China and India, two very ancient civilizations, have a very long history of exchange and contact. The important change, of course, was the post-World War II when India retained independence and China had the people's
Republic's new government. I think the early years was very good for both sides and the two see each other as partners, as having common goals in the world system. So the famous, actually China's famous five principles of peace and coexistence were jointly developed between Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and
the Indian Prime Minister, Nehru, and it was a very important set of diplomatic international relations principles for developing countries. So China and India together contributed to the emergence of the third world countries during those years.
What was very unfortunate, of course, was the bilateral relation went very sore later on. And the main reason was India was not very ready.
to accept China's sovereignty, to accept China as an equal partner, and so on. In India, I think for most of the time, so itself as the leader of the developing world, of the third world. And when China's economic and political influence
grow much bigger into the 1990s and this century, it was even more uncomfortable for India to find a way to deal with China. I think all this led to a lot of frictions between China and India and the border between the two countries have
always have problems, although of recent years things seem to be getting better. So looking back, these 75 years of course can teach us many things and I think the most important thing is that countries still have to actually go back to the
the original spirit of peaceful coexistence and cooperation. And if you want to have a good bilateral relation, if you want to build a peaceful world, you need mutual trust, you need to respect each other's interests, and then try to find ways to cooperate. I think, hopefully, I think the two countries' leadership are now...
trying to find a way to pursue those goals. Yeah. Thank you very much for putting a long history into perspective. So China's ambassador to India has recently suggested in a media interview with Global Times, I think, that bilateral ties are at a crucial stage. So in what ways do you think the ties are at a critical stage right now? Well, in one way, like I said earlier,
The direct disputes between the two countries is the border issue. In that matter, things are quieting down recently, so there is an opportunity for the two parts, for the two countries to consolidate those games and to build up much better, much stronger bilateral relations.
with the border issue under control. And the second is, of course, globally, we are in a very important time, very crucial time, with the United States now are producing, are generating a lot of disruptions, so to speak, to the world community in terms of globalization, the trade agreement, trade matters in terms of
U.S. global roles, geopolitical roles and global geopolitical ambitions. So it's a time that the world order is being remade, and China and India together with other global southern countries
have a great opportunity to pursue a much more, what we call, more multipolar, more stable, more democratized global order. And India and China are very important players in this. So it is important that the two countries
Finds common frameworks and work together and work together with other Global southern countries to pursue a more peaceful world. So in essence that the two countries are facing important opportunities and it is crucial the leadership and the civil society of the two countries can find common grounds to work together.
By the way, what is your understanding about this particular idea that somehow the two countries, China and India, should view their bilateral ties from a strategic and long-term perspective? Why is such a perspective important?
Yes. For one thing, I think the Chinese term, in Chinese terminologies of foreign relations and global affairs, Chinese people use the term 战略性, strategic. Actually that term translated into English, it kind of carries a very, quite a different meaning. Meaning in a sense, when you talk about something like strategic,
you kind of convey that you are not genuine, you are trying to maneuver, you're trying to be strategic. That's one meaning. And the other meaning, I think the Chinese original meaning is you look...
At the longer term matter, you have a much broader view. You don't get yourself trapped in the minor issues in the tactical matters. So that's what the Chinese and President Xi Jinping's use of the term strategic.
And in that sense, and it is just what I was talking about, that one, there is now a historical opportunity for China, India and global southern countries to remake, to produce a much better world order.
And second, the two countries have very common ambitions in terms of developing their own country, pursuing what Chinese call the modernization project. India has those ambitions, China has those ambitions. And then looking long-term that the two of them can be a mutual support for each other, can benefit from working together. And then,
It's just putting down the minor fictions in the border issue. Those are indeed very minor in terms of the global picture. I see. So the final question before we need to let you go, Professor, and briefly, on the part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government, why do you think we have also recently heard some positive remarks about ties with China? For example, in a recent press conference,
podcast interview, Modi emphasized the dialogue with China over discord. I think one is the global politics is becoming much more uncertain with the U.S. role changing and U.S. intentions very uncertain, unclear.
So India saw there's a need to diversify its global strategies to collaborate more with China. And second, I think it's domestic and something I also said just now that India's
objectives of modernization, of industrialization, of its market development, it can benefit greatly from China, from working with China, from having access to Chinese investment and technology and so on. And so in that sense, I think they are willing to cool down the border disputes and also looking for ways to cooperate with China.
Thank you very much for joining us. Professor Wang Zhenxu joining us from Zhejiang University. Coming up, global shares are sliding as new American import duties loom. You're listening to World Today. We'll be back.
U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed to announce new tariffs later this week. Goldman Sachs is now expecting the aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag American economic growth to a near standstill.
The investment bank has raised its forecast for inflation in the United States this year to 3.5%, cut its GDP outlook to only 1%, and raised the American unemployment view to 4.5%. It also expects a 35% chance for recession over the course of next one year compared to prior expectation regarding 20%.
The forecast is also painting a growing chance for a stagflation U.S. economy featuring low growth and high inflation. For more, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr. Zhou Mi from Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. So President Donald Trump is expected to outline reciprocal tariffs against major U.S. trading partners. Dr. Zhou Mi, tell us what's the purpose of it?
Well, in my understanding, he's trying to do actually two things. The first one is he's trying to lower United States promises on its tariffs in the WTO and also in other free trade agreements, because United States already lowered that
tariffs on so many different things. So they want some kind of things to improve that, to increase the tariffs on the import from other countries. Well, the second purpose is he's trying to require other countries to give some promise, compromise to United States. I mean, they have to give something to United States, maybe not on the trade, but also on some other issues like we can find that in the past. United States has used the tariffs to
acquired the territory of Hawaii from independent kingdom. So I think that he's likely that he's trying to ask more from other trading partners. And how do you see this affecting American consumers, especially when inflation has already driven up? Well, tariff is definitely one part of the cost of, you know, the products, the final products and also some of the intermediate products.
We can find that the United States are mainly focused on the agriculture, some service industries and some of the manufacturing products. But even for those industries, they have to import the intermediate products or the raw materials from other countries. So it's dependent too much on import and that is a kind of very important part of the cost for the final products.
so if they put some tariffs on that I would say that you know first they will suffer from a higher price on the final product and secondly it is even more challenging that the retailers the wholesalers of the United States cannot find suitable or enough supply so they have to find some alternatives and the alternative supply may be not so good maybe not so cheap so the consumers will definitely suffer from
the higher price and more uncertainties. And Trump has already announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imported automobiles. So which countries do you think will be hit hardest by these auto tariffs?
Well, for the automobile sector, I think that it is the best or the most internationalized. We have seen so many collaborations in different countries. So some countries are good at the tires, some countries are good at making the engines. I think that Germany is one of the examples, as you would like to describe.
To point out, for Germany, they have produced very strong abilities of automobiles and they are supplying the rest of the world with many parts. While Japan is also one of the examples, Japanese companies are really good at making some smaller things, but most important things.
So for its trading partners, I mean, near the United States, Canada and Mexico will definitely suffer from that. Because before that, there were no tariffs for the import and export of automobiles and auto parts. But now they have to face 25%. It's a very huge increase. Even for some of the U.S. manufacturing, if they invest in Mexico and Canada, they will have to suffer from that.
And who will pay the price actually?
I think that maybe the supply chains will bear the price together. Maybe the United States consumers, if they still want to buy the automobiles, they can choose from some not so good automobiles from the United States or pay more for the imports from other countries. But both of these choices are not so good compared with right now. What retaliatory measures might we see from these major car exporting nations?
I think that it's really a big issue for them because it's related to so many employment and also the development of sectors. So I think that they must be very serious about the problems. If we are looking back in the past eight years, we see the steel and aluminum is one of the examples. When United States is trying to put the tariffs on them, for the EU, they have retaliated on the whiskey and also the cheese or the jeans products.
produced in the United States. I think that in this time they were trying to do more because they are taking care of the main export of the United States like crude oil or LNGs or other things. But I have to say that in this regard all these retaliations will have the effects not only on the US side but also on themselves because they depend a lot on the import from the United States. Even for Canada they have a lot of
consideration about the possibilities. But I think that retaliation is a really are should be
cultures by them, but they have to do that because it's taking too serious and it's related to so many employment. And Goldman Sachs expects the aggressive duties from the White House will raise inflation and unemployment and drag down the economic growth. It also predicts a growing chance of a stagflation economy. So how do you view all this tariffs impacts on the U.S. economy?
Well, I mean that if you're looking at the stock market, performance of the United States is already embedded or shows some of the attitudes of the market. In my understanding that the market and also the people are not like the uncertainty. Maybe Donald Trump has given there some dream that they can take the manufacturing back and produce more jobs, but it is only just the promises.
How can we believe that the investors will follow that attitude of the United States government? So for the enterprises, for the employments, they may worry about not enough demand and not enough jobs.
And for those people who are not likely to have more income, they may be very careful about the consumption. And for the companies, when they are trying to look at the future development, they have to take care of the supply chains and trying to carefully manage their stocks.
And this uncertainty will strengthen or tighten the supply chains. And in this regard, it will have even higher pressure on the inflation and also the congestion in the ports. And also a lot of changes will make the people find nowhere to hide. I think it's definitely bad news for the economy of the U.S. if they cannot have bright promises or hope in the future.
Reinvigorating U.S. manufacturing is one of the key motivations for Trump to have all these tariff policies. But have they achieved any success in revitalizing the U.S. manufacturing? Sure.
"Till now I didn't observe any of these real facts, but I have to say that there are some signals that were sent by some of the companies who said that they will increase their investment in the UNESC. But I have to say that it is only the promises."
We can say that for many of the investments, it has to be supported not only by the capital, but also by the employment, I mean, laborers and the supply chains. For those companies, I do believe that they want to expand and grasp the opportunities of the United States market.
but they still worry about the supply chains. If they are not able to find enough support from the local market and the international relations, they may try to think about from another different choices, and that is not so helpful for United States to so-called revigorate its manufacturing. And currently fear of deglobalization is high in the world. So what does Trump's tariff policies mean for international trade?
For international trade, I think the United States is one of the major trading partners in the world. So it is involved and embedded deeply in the international trade. But it is creating a higher tariff war. I mean, all the trading partners will try to think about how can they rebalance
the international pattern of the trade. I don't think that it's only the United States have enough ability to consume the products in the world. We are seeing that many of the emerging economies are developing so quickly, and they have similar ideas about the development in the digital products and the
the low carbon development. So I still believe that we can try to rethink about the pattern globally and trying to continue with rebalance and also according to the demand of the markets. Dr. Zhongwei from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation talking to my colleague Zhao Yang. You're listening to World Today. I'm Dinghan in Beijing.
In a stunning turn of events, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen may be facing the end of her presidential ambitions, at least for now. A court ruling on Monday found the three-time presidential candidate guilty of embezzling public funds, banning her from running for office for five years.
and this could potentially block her 2027 presidential bid unless she can win appeal. Prosecutors say she and her party misused more than 4 million US dollars worth of EU funds, but Le Pen denies wrongdoing arguing that the money was spent legally.
So joining us now in the studio is my colleague Ge'Anna. Thank you very much for joining us. My pleasure. So first of all, Anna, what did we hear from Mr. Le Pen regarding her responses to being convicted?
First of all, this is indeed a historic ruling, cause later that evening, Le Pen appeared on France TV1 television channel to respond for the first time. She has denied any wrongdoing, asserting that she had absolutely no sense of having broken the law.
She angrily condemned the ruling as a political decision, calling it a tragic day for French democracy. And she said this decision is completely a violation of a rule of law. And she never expected that the judge to so bluntly disregard democratic procedures. And she added that millions of French people might have lost their candidate vote.
Her deputy, Jordan Bardella, also the chairman of the party, also denounced the ruling, stating, Today is not only Le Pen who was unjustly condemned, it was the French democracy that was killed. Le Pen also declared that she does not accept the court's ruling and she will absolutely not withdraw from politics.
She emphasized that she remains highly motivated and will not allow herself to be eliminated so easily and vowing to do everything in her power to appeal the decision. And given that appeals in France often take a long time, so Le Pen acknowledged that the legal path ahead is very narrow. But she said...
her anger has instead become an extra source of motivation. She urged the court to accelerate the process so she can still participate in the French presidential election as planned. I see. So, by the way, what do we know about the details regarding Le Pen's embezzlement cases and its conviction?
According to the court ruling, during Le Pen's tenure as a member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2014, was found guilty of misappropriating European Parliament defense by employing assistants who did not perform work related to parliamentary duties.
The amount involved is reportedly over 4 million euros. In addition to Le Pen's 24 other members of the national rally, who also
were tried alongside her and also found guilty. In addition, the national rally itself was fined 2 million euros. Le Pen's sentence also includes four years of imprisonment with two years suspended and two years to be served under electronic monitoring outside prison and also a hundred thousand fine as we know earlier
You mentioned a five-year ban from running for public office, and this is the most severe punishment for her so far. Okay. So really, I mean, Le Pen has been there within the French political cycle for quite a long, long time. How does her current standing in the presidential election polls look like?
Yes, Le Pen has a very strong appeal to the voters. And according to a voting intention survey published by the French polling institute, IFOP, on the same day of the ruling, 34% to 37% of respondents said they plan to support Le Pen in the first round of the next French presidential election, which is more than 10% points higher than before.
her support rate back in the 2022 election. And reports say such a voting percentage is comparable to those of former French presidents like François Mouton and Nicolas Sankozy, who reserved 34% and 31% of the vote, respectively, in their first rounds of elections.
So through this comparison, you can see the level of popularity Le Pen enjoys in the country, despite the legal challenges she faces. Wow. So if Le Pen is unable to run, then here comes the question, who could be the backup candidate for her national rally party? And what do we know about Le Pen's stance regarding this?
The one I mentioned earlier who made a strong condemnation on the ruling, Jordan Bardella, also the current chairman of the National Rally and a member of the European Parliament since 2019, he is considered the likely successor.
But The Economist stated that the severity of the ruling has caught the National Rally Party by surprise because firstly, Le Pen has very few options to regain her ability to run her office. And secondly, party insiders admit that Bardella is not yet ready because experts believe
Although Bardella has been the party leader for several years, she has never positioned himself as a replacement of Le Pen. Instead, she has been preparing to become Le Pen's prime minister if they won in the next election.
And for the question on Le Pen's stance on the potential candidacy, she hasn't made any comments on this yet, but we still have to see. So in all, for the national rally, it's still a tricky challenge. We have to see what adjustments they will make in the future. So briefly, the final question before we let you go, what impact, what do you make of the impact of this ruling on French politics?
I think in the short term, this ruling will open the door to further political instability in France and is likely to continue influencing domestic political discussion for the next two years. And also, I think this ruling
will also have a big impact on French economy and the government finance because National Rally also plays an important role in deciding those budgets, planning and everything. Okay, I take your point. But thank you very much for joining us. That was my colleague Ge'Anna.
Unfortunately, that's all the time for this edition of World Today. A quick recap of today's headline news. The Chinese mainland has launched combined drills around Taiwan in warnings to separate its forces. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi says China and Russia are friends forever. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, download our podcast by searching World Today. I'm Dinghan in Beijing. Thank you so much for listening. Bye for now.
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