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China-U.S. trade reset? Framework reached in principle

2025/6/11
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Ge'Anna:中美在解决贸易问题上取得进展,原则上就实施日内瓦共识的框架达成一致。 何立峰:我认为会谈是坦诚和专业的,并敦促双方以真诚和具体的行动落实总统共识,确保对话机制在美中贸易中取得真正的进展和稳定。 Qu Qiang: 我认为框架已经在于日内瓦会议上达成一致,它将包括几个部分,最重要的是,中美两国都有更多理由相互合作,而不是脱钩。 双方已经决定不需要关税战,而是需要找到解决当前经济问题和进一步合作的方法。 关税将成为我们需要解决的最重要的问题之一,降低关税对中国和美国都有利,对世界也有重要意义。 如果这三个层面的问题能够成功解决,世界将会看到一个更美好的未来,中美两国人民也将迎来更好的合作前景。 自从第一轮对话以来,双方已经对彼此有了很好的了解。 双方的谈判团队都是由专业人士组成,他们充分了解情况,拥有运行经济的专业知识和技能。 Mr. Bassant非常清楚高关税对美国不利,会损害美国工薪阶层、美国经济和稳定。 中国代表团也由像部长米成刚这样的专业人士组成,他是一位在商业和贸易部门长期工作的资深人士。 这些理性、精明的官员会以非常谨慎和小心的方式处理这些事情,这些关键词也决定了整个对话的氛围和情绪会很好,这种良好的情绪也会带来令人满意的结果。 这可能是一个非常难对付的代表团,Mr. Besant在贸易和金融运作方面非常专业,Mr. Ludnick和Mr. Greer是两国竞争的强硬倡导者。 美国派出这个重量级的鹰派团队与中国打交道,意味着两件事:他们真的想让它成功,而且他们不会在没有获得美国满意的条件的情况下离开。 中方也派出了像何立峰、雷成刚这样难以对付的重量级团队,Mr. Besson提前离开是因为他要在国会参加听证会。 Mr. Besson提前离开的原因是,财政问题,也就是关税问题,已经不再是问题了,因为那是他负责的。 剩下的就是结构性工具,例如稀土、半导体制裁等结构性问题,这纯粹是商业和贸易问题,属于Mr. Lutnik和Mr. Greer的管辖范围。 中国是一个非常稳定的参与者,总是努力兑现承诺,即使在世界动荡的情况下,也很少在短期内改变主意。 中国在1997年承诺人民币和港币不会贬值,并信守了诺言,即使当时中国还不是像今天这样的重要参与者。 不确定性仍然来自美国,美国的决策基于机会和数据,当数据和情况发生变化时,美联储、白宫和国会都会改变主意。 问题是美国能做出多少长期承诺,以及美国能否同样信守承诺。 中国方面毫无疑问会一直努力成为一个稳定的参与者。 如果中美这次真的能成功,那将为世界其他国家树立一个非常重要的榜样,这两个最重要的重量级经济参与者总能团结在一起,为世界贸易和经济带来积极影响。 如果中美陷入更多的不确定性和未知水域,整个世界都会因此遭受不确定性和更多的动荡。 这次不仅是为了全球南方国家,那些较小的发展中经济体,而是整个世界,看看欧盟、英国、日本,它们的市场也在波动,没有人愿意看到这种情况。

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Beijing and Washington agree in principle on a framework to resolve trade disputes. Chinese Vice President Han Zhong says the ocean connects humanity instead of dividing us at the UN conference. And Los Angeles mayor declares curfew in downtown as protests against the immigration race continue.

Welcome to Road Today, a news program with a different perspective. I'm Ge'Anna in Beijing. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching Road Today.

China says Beijing and Washington have made progress on addressing each other's trade concerns. They agreed in principle on the framework for implementing the consensus reached in Geneva. The latest round of talks took place in London, where Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with top U.S. officials. He

He characterized the talks as "candid and professional" and urged both sides to follow through on the presidential consensus with sincerity and concrete actions, making sure the dialogue mechanism delivers real progress and stability in China-U.S. trade.

So how meaningful is this progress, especially after years of ups and downs in China-U.S. trade relations? To help us unpack this, I'm joined by Professor Qu Qiang, fellow of Belt and Road Research Center at Minzu University of China.

Professor, the meeting has attracted global attention, not just for its timing, but also for what it represents. A framework agreement aims to implement the consensus reached by the two presidents during their recent phone call and the Geneva meeting earlier this year. So in your view, what are the main components expected to be included in this framework? And how might it help stabilize one of the world's most critical bilateral economic relationship today?

Well, I think the framework has already been agreed on the Geneva meeting. I think it will consist of several parts. Number one is about the general principles.

I think Mr. Besant of America, Secretary of Finance, have already made it very clear that America want to restructure its economy and same as China and also balancing the economy has become one of the most important job for both China and America. So under this big precondition, and I think the country, both country have more of the reason to work with each other rather than decouple with each other. I think this is the most important and major tone to set up this framework.

And secondly, is about how we can solve the current problems. I think both sides have already decided that we do not need such a tariff war against each other. But the more we need to find out a way, you know, to work out a way to find a solution towards our current economic problems and find the potential way for further cooperations.

So I think the tariff will become one of the most important problem that we need to solve right now. Currently, I think America still have 30% of the tariff against China and China have 10% of the tariff against the United States. But still, it's almost higher than pre 2025. So which means before 2025, we will have a lower tariff. I think lower tariff will be more beneficial to China and to United States. And also, it means a lot for the rest of the world because

The whole world would like to see a better improved trade relation between the largest two economies so that the whole world can benefit from it. And also the third part is about what we call the structural tools.

So if we can work the tariff out, and I think there is a very large probability that the two sides have already agreed on something, that's the reason why Mr. Besant have left this meeting and leave all these other, you know, his colleagues like Mr. Lutnik and Mr. Greer to attend to the left detailed issues. So I think the tariff side has already been squared.

But what's left here is purely trade issues, for example, about export of the rare earths and also Americans' sanctions and limitations on the high technology products like semiconductors and chips. So how can we reciprocally solve the kind of the two problems to meet each other's needs, especially large company development? They need high tech companies in America. They need rare earths and magnetic products.

Chinese large tech companies and the new semiconductor. So how can we solve this kind of problems through the details, through all kinds of the arrangements becomes a certain level of this framework. So I think if these three level of issues can be solved successfully,

under this what we call professional, rational and also frank conversation. I think the whole world we're going to see a better future and China and American people will also welcome a better possibility in the future cooperation. Indeed.

Professor, Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang described the talks as professional, rational, in-depth and candid. Why did he choose to emphasize these particular words? And what do they tell us about the tone and atmosphere of this talk? Well, I think ever since around one conversation, I think both sides have already understand each other on a very good footing.

The both negotiation team are consist of professionals. They fully understand what's going on. They have all the expertise and know-how of running economy. I still remembered before the round one talk, Mr. Bassant is the first one stands out in America publicly and saying, it's not gonna work.

If we have such a high tariff against China and it's going to be bad for America. He said it openly in the White House. He said it openly in a banker's meeting in New York and to the media. So I think Mr. Besson fully understand what's going on, the gravity of these conflicts and how it's going to hurt American working class and American economy and stability.

And also, I think Chinese delegation are always are also consists of the professionals like a minister. Minister Mi Chengkang himself is a long-term veteran working in the commerce and trade sectors. So I think these rational

know-how savvy officials. They will deal with these whole matters in a very, very delicate and careful way. So that's the reason why they're saying these key words. And also these key words decided the whole vibe, the whole sentiment around this conversation can be good. And this good sentiment also will lead to satisfying, rather satisfying result.

Speaking of the teams from both sides, reports and photos released from the meeting show that the U.S. delegation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jameson Greer was your thoughts on this particular lineup. Can we get a sense of how they could influence the outcome of the talks and the direction of any future agreements?

Well, this is probably a very, you know, difficult delegation to deal with. I have to give you that. I mean, Mr. Besant is very professional in the trade and the financial operations. And also Mr. Ludnick and Mr. Greer, they are, you know, very hard-

advocate for the competition between the two nations. That's for sure, no denial. But also we have to say that those three people are very professional as well. They fully understand what's going on and how important that the success of this conversation can mean.

So I think Americans send out this heavyweight, hawkish team to deal with China. It means two things. Number one, they really want to make it work. Number two, they wouldn't leave without a satisfying condition scored by United States. So we need to be very, very careful. But also I have to say,

Chinese side also has been sending out heavy weight, hard to deal with team like Mr. He Lifeng, like Mr. Lei Chenggang. They're also veterans, as we just mentioned. But also there's some other details you have to see that Mr. Besson left earlier. Well, the reason for that is they have some other important meeting in the Congress for the hearing.

So but also my reading is that the reason why Mr. Besson left earlier is because the fiscal issues, which is the tariff issues, is not a problem anymore because that is something in his charge.

So when this problem has solved, what's left is what we call the structural tools, structural problems like the rare earths, like the semiconductor sanctions. So that's something purely commerce and a purely trade. So that is within the jurisdiction of Mr. Lutnik and Mr. Greer. So I think right now, until this stage, I think –

Of course, it's not just about what is discussed. It's also about what comes next.

After years of friction and unpredictability in economic ties with the United States, how likely is it that this new framework will be implemented smoothly? And what steps has China already taken to prepare? Well, it's very hard to say so. China is a very stable player in the whole world. When China says something, you always try to honor this commitment. China very seldom changes its idea within a short term.

even with all kinds of the turbulence in the whole world. We still remember back in 1997 when Chinese leaders promised that the renminbi and Hong Kong dollar will not depreciate and we keep our promise. And just to remember at that time, 1997, China was not quite a heavy player like it is today. But still China always made this commitment. And even before that, in 1960s and 1950s, China always made this commitment

But the uncertainty still comes with the United States. I'm not saying this administration is uncertain, but in America they're facing a lot of the general uncertain factors. For example, domestic politics. We know there are many legal issues that are going on. We see there are major social turbulence that are going on in LA. And also we've been seeing the economy are facing a lot of pressures. Financial markets are going up and down and American dollar indexes are also going up and down.

So we know there's a tradition that American decision-making are based on opportunities, are based on data. So when data changes, Federal Reserve is going to change their idea. White House is going to change their idea. And when situation changes, the Congress will change their idea. So the problem is how certain and how much of the long-term promise can an American make? And if Americans can honor their commitment as well, I think –

For China's side, there's no question we will always try to be a stable player. Professor, all of this comes as the World Bank just downgraded its global growth forecast to 2.3% for this year. In this uncertain environment, how could a process in China-U.S. trade talks help restore confidence in the global economy at a time of slowing growth? Well, I think if China and America really can make it work this time, we were going to see it

very important example for the rest of the world this g2 there's two most important heavyweight economic players well always we are you know together always can drive up and also you know play a positive influence into the world trade and economy so if we work out the whole economy works out so I think this 2.3 percent of the drop will be cancelled but if we

we cannot play it out. And if America and China, we are zigzagging into some more uncertain and more uncharted water, I think the whole world will suffer from this uncertainty and more turbulence.

towards the financial market of the world will happen. And I mean, this time is not only for the global South nations, those smaller developing economy. I mean, the whole world, just take a look at the European Union, just take a look at the UK, Japan, their market also been fluctuating and nobody would like to see that. So this time we need to be accountable, not only for ourselves, but also be very, very responsible for the whole world together.

Thanks, Professor. Appreciate the clarity and depth of your analysis. That was Professor Qu Qiang, fellow of the Belt and Road Research Center at Minzu University of China. Coming up, Chinese Vice President Han Zhong says the ocean connects humanity instead of dividing us at the UN conference. This is Road Today. Stay with us.

Hello, my name is Alessandro Golombievski Teixeira. I'm a professor of Public Policy and Management at Tsinghua University in Beijing. I am a great listener of The Wall Today. In my opinion, The Wall Today is one of the best China radio programs. In The Wall Today, we can get the best news and analysis in what is happening now in the world. So please, come to join us.

This is World Today. Now turning to a major global event happening this week, the United Nations Ocean Conference currently underway in Nice, France. Delegates from around the globe are calling for tougher action, including putting an end to deep-sea bottom trawling and stepping up efforts to safeguard our overexploited marine ecosystem.

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng outlined four proposals on sustainable ocean governance while addressing the general debate. He also expressed China's willingness to strengthen bilateral and multilateral strategic communication and coordination with host country France.

So what's really at stake here and what kind of commitments are we seeing from major nations? To delve into this, joining us on the line is Professor Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics at Chongqing University. Thanks for joining us, Professor. - Hi, thank you for inviting me.

Professor, Vice President Han Zheng outlined four proposals on sustainable ocean governance. What's your take on China's efforts in this realm? Are there any concrete achievements China made that you could share with us? China has made significant advance in the ocean government and ocean economy, ecological system development.

The speech delivered by Vice President Han Zheng at the France conference on ocean management, I think he emphasized

that the ocean management got to be safe, so you emphasize safety and also common prosperity for all the countries involved with the ocean water and also build up a civilization sustainable development for the ocean ecosystem.

And finally, I mean, it is cooperation between different countries, making it as a solid foundation for common development. I think Chinese idea is very clear.

China is one of the largest economies in the world. It also shares lots of ocean water along the border, particularly the Pacific Ocean. Over the last 40 or 50 years or so,

China has made a significant advance in every area in terms of offshore fishing development, ecosystem, forest trees, and also renewable energy, such as the tidal electricity generation.

and tourism along the coastal area, the ocean area. In addition, China always emphasizes peace and common prosperity for all the countries involved. And bilateral, multilateral corporations are willing to help achieve the common development goals for the human being.

So, this kind of meeting is a good place for China to present the successful experience and also some lessons to be learned in terms of managing the ocean and also making the vast territory of ocean with accounting for 71% of the Earth's surface, which is 2.4 times of the continental areas.

This is a very important, it is a vital, sustainable platform for human being and human economy social activities. So I think the point is very well received in the conference, according to the news report.

Professor, speaking of sustainability, reports suggest that China is now among the global leaders in marine new energy innovation with projects such as the Jiangsha tidal power station in Wenling and the tidal turbine in Zhou Shan. How might these technologies influence the global clean ocean energy landscape? And how can China work with other countries to advance sustainable marine energy?

The marine energy, especially the electricity technology, is now very advanced. And China has installed quite a few electricity generation stations along the coast. The two stations that you mentioned, once in Zhejiang, once in Fujian.

They are generating useful clean electricity to save a lot of carbon emissions. In the longer term, it's not only sustainable, but also it makes a huge contribution to the general development in the ecosystem and also the clean environment.

The amount of electricity generated by the tidal wave of the electricity stations, they are useful for the local business activity and also for the local residents. This kind of technology once it's getting more mature and the equipment is getting more efficient,

the electricity generation will become a very useful complementary to the energy demand system in the country, and that could be duplicated in other parts of the world. I think France and other industrialized countries, they already made a significant progress in that area.

Professor, we are seeing the rise of what's being called Blue Economy 2.0 in China. So from a bigger picture, from marine biopharmaceuticals to integrated ocean ranching and tourism, how has high-tech innovation helped China build a globally competitive next-generation ocean economy? In what ways does this represent a break from traditional resource-heavy development models?

The marine ranching is a very good way for China to increase the fishing production without causing eco damage to the ocean environment. The fishing farming across the Chinese coast has a fairly useful way of increasing and boosting the productivity of the fishing industry in China.

And there are some other areas, for example, like the offshore forestry, forestration, which is useful for carbon capture.

and created a very conducive ecological environment for local fishing and other likelihood in the ocean area And also attracting tourism to this beautiful spot for spending their time and generating income for the local residents

I mean, on the main, the ocean economy contributed quite a significant proportion and the proportion is rising over time to the country's gross domestic product. And this is not only increasing the economic activity and the prosperity of the people involved, but also it makes a huge contribution to the ecosystem development.

along the offshore area and also in the deep ocean area. Professor, building on that, China has long been advocating for shelving disputes and pursuing joint development. Last year, it held the first bilateral maritime dialogue with Malaysia and reached consensus with Indonesia on joint development of overlapping maritime areas.

So how do you see these efforts in building a fair and equitable international maritime order, especially in the broader context of global cooperation on ocean resources? The Meringue Tam area is very rich of natural resources and also very rich in terms of fishing, you know, the fish product.

I mean, there are vast areas which have some sort of potential conflict between countries, and China in particular has a huge water body in the Pacific regions, which is adjacent or on the border to many, you know,

neighboring countries such as Malaysia, you just mentioned, and also Vietnam, the Philippines. We can see in the news there are some, you know, sometimes there's some conflict between nations and sometimes there are some very amicable, you know, examples that they have very good cooperation for the common benefit.

I think this concept of cooperation and also consensus, - how to develop the maritime area, - is very useful for international peace, - especially peace between the member countries. And secondly, if they are used very effectively, - it can exploit the potential resources and product - for the benefit of the countries involved.

And certainly, I think it is a concept of technological cooperation. China is a big country, it has significant advances in technological development in many aspects. And this kind of cooperation with friendly neighboring countries, I think it would generate a very good outcome for common prosperity and peaceful development.

So China is very proactive to make sure it's not only just a big country, but also have to make sure that China is responsible and very willing to cooperate with the smaller nations such as the country that we just mentioned.

That were really enlightening perspectives. Thanks, Professor Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics at Chongqing University. You're listening to Road Today. We'll be back after a short break.

Welcome back to Road Today with me, Guiana in Beijing. Turning now to the latest updates from Los Angeles, where clashes between protesters and law enforcement over immigration rates continue to escalate.

Mayor Karen Bass has declared a curfew in the downtown area. U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to quote, liberate Los Angeles. He has deployed over 4,000 National Guards and 700 Marines to suppress the protests, which began on Friday. For more on this, Zhao Ying spoke with Einar Tengen, senior fellow of Taihe Institute and chairman of Asia Narrative's Substack.

Los Angeles has imposed this downtown curfew after several nights of protests. Is this a response to actual public safety concerns, or do you feel this is more about the political pressure?

This is public safety or political pressure. The curfew is framed as a security measure. That's fine. That's within it. It's not all over the city. It's just in certain areas. But what Trump is doing is definitely making this into a political issue. It's exacerbated.

The problem, things were largely peaceful and well within the control of the local police when he decided he wanted to make an issue of it. And there's a lot of concern that he's doing this because his economic policies, his promise of peace everywhere isn't going very well.

Yeah, as you said, the protest has largely been peaceful. So do curfews risk criminalizing the peaceful protest, especially when paired with a growing military presence?

To justify federal troop presence, it's just not there in legal terms. A citywide curfew that signs the process while courts and local police remain fully functional goes against the limits flagged. And this is a case going back to 1932. It's called Sterling versus Constantine.

And basically it said the Texas Governor Sterling wanted to declare martial law because he wanted to limit oil production. And the district court said, no, you can't do that. And that was affirmed by the Supreme Court. Even during the 1992 LA riots, federal troops arrived only after the governor requested help.

And, you know, it just, it doesn't make any sense to do this. And in terms of things, it was fairly peaceful coming down. It's been escalating because of the armed presence of the National Guard. And now you have Marines. Arrests have surged. Civil liberties suits are lining up. Obviously, you know, this blurs the line between legitimate law enforcement and suppression of dissent.

So Governor Newsom has accused the Trump administration of creating a military dragnet in Los Angeles. Can you explain to us how unusual is it for the president to activate the National Guard and deploy Marines over the objection of state and local leaders? And were there precedents in American history?

No, there isn't. That's the whole point. There has been instances where the federal troops have gone in. 1957 in Little Rock, that was to enforce the civil rights. 1962, Ole Miss. There was, you know, under Kennedy, the 68 DC riots, 1992 riots in LA. But these were all

triggered by the governor saying, look, we need help. And in this case, you have the governor saying, we don't need help. So this is exceeding his authority by any measure. Well, Newsom has actually taken the administration to court to block this deployment. On what legal grounds is California challenging the president's use of troops? And how strong do you think is the case?

It's very strong. There's no rebellion or invasion. Trump can say what he wants about insurrection. The irony being here that the last insurrection that we've actually had was generated by him. But clearly this violates state sovereignty. In the United States, basically the Constitution controls, but any powers not granted to the federal government are automatically

reserved by states. And it's also against Posse Comitatus Act. The Interaction Act domestic violence clause kicks in if a state cannot or will not protect rights and the courts. And LA's institutions remain operational.

There was a court case in Youngstown versus Sawyer, and that was 1952. And that had to do with the making the steel mills continue to go. And you cannot go against state wishes just simply because you're in power. That's why there is this check and balance. It's not only between the three branches of government.

there is also a check and balance between federal and state. Yeah, so Trump actually, he hasn't invoked the Insurrection Act, but he said he's open to do that. So for those who might not be familiar with that, how extraordinary would that be? And legally speaking, does the current situation in Los Angeles meet the threshold for invoking the Insurrection Act? Yeah.

Not by any stretch of the imagination. It has to be an obstruction too great to be suppressed by ordinary proceedings, police, judicial proceedings. That bar was met in 1863 during the New York draft riots and arguably in 1992.

to in LA, but these were largely peaceful marches that started out. It only escalated after Trump escalated. There's no way to say, "Oh yeah, he has a case here." He is just simply probing to see how far he can go. And it's scary because is this the only state he's going to do it in? Obviously, California is a deep blue state.

If he's going to use this in other states, they're going to be worrisome. Even within his own base, many of his supporters are deeply suspicious of the federal government.

And they have, many of them have invoked posse comitatus, all sorts of weird reasons. But they say that they're afraid of the federal troops being used to impose power. So in this particular case, this is their nightmare scenario. Because if Trump can do it, that means the next president can as well. And this is something they're going to be looking at very carefully, as they might cheer him on in terms of his goals, but they're not going to like his means.

Okay, and Trump has described the protesters as animals and a foreign enemy. And he even vowed to liberate Los Angeles from what he calls a conquest.

I mean, what are the implications of a sitting president using wartime language to describe U.S. citizens? Well, it's dangerous and deliberate. You know, calling protesters animals or foreign enemies dehumanizes dissent and it rationalizes force. I mean, this is all building up to saying that this is an insurrection. You know, it matters because military rules and engagement hinge on identifying hostile forces.

labeling your citizens as enemies widens the legal latitude to use lethal force. So Donald Trump is really pushing this down the road. And there's real, real concerns that there's going to be substantial bloodshed in addition to the people who've already been injured and

in and hurt in this things, and that it's spreading across the United States already throughout cities in the United States. You're seeing similar things happening in terms of peaceful marches demanding that Donald Trump stop what he's doing. It is really scaring not only Democrats, but independents. This is not what they signed up for when they had Donald Trump, when they voted for Donald Trump as president.

They were hoping that he would address the economic woes, and it seems that all he's doing is making them worse and, inevitably, creating more divisions rather than healing them. Yeah. Then in your view, what might be the real intentions behind these actions by Donald Trump?

Well, I mean, obviously distraction and control. He's shifting his focus from his failures on Ukraine, Palestine, tariffs, his tiff with Elon Musk.

You know, and he's feeding the red meat that is immigration, is, you know, is the reason that America is falling behind. It's this victimization narrative that he likes to do. It's echoed in his push to end birthright citizenship. It's part of the same playbook, you know, attack constitutional norms, keep the base on edge.

You know, bottom line, this isn't about restoring order. It's about grabbing the optics, stoking fear, consolidating power and taking on a Democratic Party political role. That was Aynur Teng, senior fellow of Taihe Institute and chairman of Asia Narratives Substack. This is Road Today. We'll be back.

Hello, I am Dr. Digby James Wren, a political analyst and international relations scholar specializing in China area studies. World Today offers unmatched in-depth perspectives on China's politics, economics, business, technology and society. World Today's team of reporters and contributors provides valuable information from all of the world's major economies. I hope you can join me on World Today for the very best insights and news from China, on China, and help to build a better understanding of China's role in the world today.

You've been listening to World Today. Now let's turn to the booming market for China's clean energy cars overseas. China's new energy vehicle exports continue to surge in May. NEV exports reached 200,000 units last month, surging 80% yearly. Brands such BYD, Chery, Tesla China and Geely led the way.

Meanwhile, China's auto industry saw strong growth in the first five months of the year, reflecting robust consumer demand. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said the country produced about 13 million vehicles during the period, up around 13 percent. Sales also rose nearly 11 percent to about 13 million units.

New energy vehicles led the surge, with production jumping over 45% to nearly 6 million units. For more on this, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Shi Fanqi, assistant professor of economics at Peking University's School of Economics.

So, Professor Shi Fanqi, thank you very much for joining us. China's new energy vehicle exports saw a notable jump in May. So what do you think are main reasons for it, especially under the U.S. tariffs? And where are the main markets for China's NEV exports?

Thank you very much for the invitation, Jan. So I believe with respect to the recent months, there are two short-term reasons and two long-term reasons. The short-term reasons are mostly with respect to Europe. So we know at the end of April, Europe removed the penalty tariffs of 45.3% with respect to Chinese new energy vehicle exports.

and instead switched to a regulation on the minimum selling price. So that definitely helped with the surging exports. And another thing is about the adaptation of the Chinese automakers, especially new energy vehicle makers. So basically in order to tailor for the European markets and to overcome these kind of penalty tariffs, a lot of these providers are switching to hybrid models which exempt

from the penalty tariff. So that's with respect to the short-term reasons and across the backdrop of the long-term reasons, I guess it's about our technological edge or technological advantage in these kind of new energy vehicle sector and also about our sustained policy support. So that gives us a sustained possibility to have production and growth in these kinds of sectors.

And Chinese brands have been diversifying their overseas markets to reduce the reliance on just a few markets, and they have achieved success in Southeast Asia, Middle East and Latin America. So what are the advantages of China's NEVs on this market? A lot of them even go to overseas countries to set up their factories. So can you give us some examples?

Okay, so with respect to that, first let me talk about the advantages. So with respect to those markets, we know that a lot of the consumers, the first thing is that because of these kind of economies going our experience in production, so we do have a price and supply chain advantage. That means that compared with a lot of foreign new energy vehicles, our products are cheaper and on average is 20 to 30% cheaper.

And the second thing is that, as I just mentioned, so basically we not only offer cheaper price, but we offer decent quality products. And also we offer a lot of choices. For example, we have these producers like dominant producers like BYD, like Gilly, like Cherry, like Great.

Basically, there are a lot of choices and within each brand, there are also a lot of choices. That can be tailor-made for either the lower class, the middle class, and the upper class. That's where it's back to our competitive advantages.

for our setup of plans, I guess, according to my research, that mostly happens to two countries. The first one is Thailand. So we noticed that BYD actually opened last year, that is in July last year, opened a

150,000 unit plant in Rauyang, that is in Thailand, and also Hozon actually has been assembling vehicles in Thailand since 2023. And another country as I mentioned is Brazil. So for example, BYD recently acquired a former Ford plant in Kamakari, and that is expected to produce 300,000 new energy vehicles annually.

basically this year. And also Haozong, we noticed that it built a factory also for 2025 exports and that's across to cater to sales in those

America. And a long-term player, that is a cherry, basically we noticed that they have been assembling in Brazil actually since 2014. And China's electric vehicle market has reached a milestone with the NEVs now representing over 50% of the new car sales. So, Fanqi, do you think this is a trend?

Yes, for sure. I think that is a clear and accelerating trend. And behind that, I guess there are two major reasons. First is that our government is still giving a lot of support. And on the other side, we also noticed that for this EV markets or new energy vehicle markets, there's a very, very strong economies of scale. So that means that there is

self-enforcing cycle. That means as there's more consumption, there is more production, then more

new plug-in stations will be built and that means both the consumers' value for those products will be higher and also the production cost will actually go down. So that can help explain why we have a clear and accelerating trend. And in the first four months of this year, China accounted for 68% of the world's NEV sales growth. So does this rapid transition signal China's central role in the global auto industry's electric future?

From my perspective, I think the answer is mostly yes. The first thing is that we do see these dominant shares and that means that we can have this kind of market side and competitive advantage and also because of

quality support so we can dominate those markets. So that's with respect to the sales. But on the other side that is often overlooked is that because of these economies of scale, so by having these large market share, then we can shape the trajectory of the future development

of new energy vehicles. For example, we can have these kind of strategic ecosystem architect with respect to the charging standards. So that means that we can set up some kind of standards also in these kind of new energy vehicle

markets. And I also want to talk about artificial intelligence is really revolutionizing and changing how we live and how we work. So how much has that already transformed the EV industry, do you think? Well, I think it transformed quite a bit and that manifests itself in three aspects. The first aspect, it is revolutionizing the production of

of these new energy vehicles. Now we have intelligent manufacturing and AI can also help with energy optimization. For example,

I noticed that machine learning techniques has been used to boost charging efficiency and currently the improvement is at around 1.5 to around 2%. And another example is that AI driven robotic and these kind of supply chain analytics

can help optimize the cost and the speed in manufacturing. So that's on the first aspect, that is with respect to production. The second aspect is with respect to driver assistance and autonomy. For example, we noticed that leading EV makers like BYD, Xiaopeng, Geely, and Red Bull are actually embedding these kind of AI-driven systems with radar, LiDAR, and AR chips. So that definitely helps with automated driving.

And the third aspect is with respect to driver expense. So we noticed that a lot of the technology has been used in smart carpets and also in AI. And some examples include the models from BYD, Gili and GrayWall. They are actually integrating some of the newly developed deep six reasoning model of

for onboard recognition and also for infotainment and also intelligent navigation. So that not only improves the driving experience of basically the drivers, but also that helps with the experience of the passengers and the drivers alike while they are driving. So that creates better experience for them. That was Xu Fanqi, Assistant Professor of Economics at Peking University's School of Economics. This is Road Today. Stay tuned.

China is spotlighting its efforts to support an aging population, as it marks National Population Day on Wednesday. This year's theme centers on elderly care and the rising challenge of chronic diseases. According to the latest census, nearly one in five people in China are now aged 60 or above.

a sign that population aging is deepening. For more insights, let's have Helen Hanhua, co-founder and secretary general of Beijing Club for International Dialogue. Thanks for joining us, Helen. Thanks for having me. Helen, June 11th is China's Population Day. Authorities have repeatedly stressed the need to focus on high-quality population development

as a foundation for Chinese modernization. So how do you interpret this phrase? Could you please break it down for us? What does it really mean? And what kind of society is China trying to build through this?

This is a really good question. I think high quality population development is the other side of the coin. When we refer to new quality production force, we actually need people to carry out this concept, this goal. So this is like a strategic shift from focusing solely on population size to emphasizing the overall quality of human capital.

This includes, but not limited to, improvements like in education, in health, in skill sets building, in innovation capacity building, and as well as the adaptability to meet the demands of a modern high-tech economy. So it also means that China is no longer seeking to expand its labor force.

through quantities, but more on the qualities. So people need to, you know, the government agencies, the people are participating to this kind of program need to cultivate a more skilled, healthy and more productive population that can support our long-term economic growth and to achieve more social stability.

According to China's latest national population census, people aged 60 and above now account for over 18% of the population with aging rapidly, moving from a mild to a moderate stage. So could you please walk us through China's key policies for tackling aging issue and what kind of real world impact have we seen so far? Mm-hmm.

China's aging challenge is both a long-term one and a very pressing one. I think the government has already rolled out a multifaceted policy framework aimed at building what it calls an active aging society, meaning that the key pillars will include expanding elderly care services, improving medical infrastructure,

promoting elder-friendly urban planning, and encouraging the development of the so-called silver economy. Silver economy is booming, actually. So one of the major steps that has been is the promotion of the community-based elderly care system, which is certainly of Chinese characteristics. So instead of sending the elder people to the nursing homes or

or the other nursing facilities, which we are also building aggressively, the majority of the elder people will stay in their homes and enjoy this called community-based elderly care system. So this can combine home care, community services, and also the institutional and the sustainable support from all the players involved in this

in this business, it's not just like a social care, but it's also a vast business potential. The pilot programs across cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou have already introduced the integrated services such as daycare centers for seniors, smart house monitoring devices, even including the robots to help with that.

And also government subsidize the meal delivery programs, especially in the aforementioned cities. The government has been playing a very important role in subsidize the meal delivery programs.

So in China is also pushing the pension system reforms and encouraging later retirement. Later retirement, we also know that has already been implemented. So probably you and me can also calculate when, what is the exact age we're going to retire. Even it is still a long way to go, but still, you know, we, everybody is,

is affected by this later retirement plan but i think overall it's an encouraging signal that

especially for the knowledge-based workers, they have more time to contribute to the society. And also some provinces have started to gradually adjusting the retirement ages while also offering the retraining programs for older workers. In addition to this, what we call the elderly universities, but also for the on-the-job older workers to stay in the labor,

Helen, another interesting phenomenon, a recent survey shows that China's floating population has surpassed 376 million, with post-90s new urban residents making up over 40%.

This younger group are 30% more active in fields like the digital economy and creative industries compared to non-migrant peers. So how is this new wave of youth migration reshaping urban innovation ecosystems in China today? Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.

the rise of post 90s and even post 95s youth within China's floating population is definitely and fundamentally transforming the urban innovation. Unlike their earlier generations of rural urban migrants,

who primarily viewed low-skill labor gaps in the cities. These new waves brings education, background, brings this digital fluency and also this kind of spirit of being a slash youth

I mean, having several jobs at the same time and they are having this kind of spirit of experimentation and innovation. So many have grown up in an internet driven era, or we call it the netizens from the day they were born. So making them very naturally inclined toward the digital economy, e-commerce, online gaming,

content creation, short reels included, and also the tech-based entrepreneurship. So this is a very interesting group and a growing group, promising group.

And especially in cities like Chengdu, like Hangzhou, like Shenzhen, they have become hotspots for this demographic, not just because of job opportunities, but also due to this culture diversity, culture vibrancy, affordable living and the support, the government support, the industry support for these startups.

The most recent case, very vivid case is the Nezha sequels, Nezha 2 especially. You know, for this film to be created, to be innovated and to be made and produced

I know that there are over 4,000 small to medium-sized startups in Chengdu have all contributed to the making and the production, distribution, marketing of this film, making it a blockbuster success.

So these younger migrants often bypass the traditional concepts and the cities like Beijing or Shanghai, but they are in favor of emerging new first tier cities while they can afford to take risks

to make their contribution and even make their sacrifices and build something of their own. Thanks, Helen. Your analysis really helped us to see the issue from a new angle. Thank you so much. Helen Hanhua, co-founder and Secretary General of Beijing Club for International Dialogue. That's all the time for this edition of World Today with me, Ge'Anna, in Beijing. Thank you so much for listening. Bye for now.