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cover of episode From dialogue to disruption: Why is Washington undercutting its own agreements?

From dialogue to disruption: Why is Washington undercutting its own agreements?

2025/6/2
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Chen Jiahe
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Chinese Ministry of Commerce
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Dr. Aleksey Mravyev
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Dr. Kamil Makilev
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Dr. Zhao Mi
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Ge'enna
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Jimmy O. Yang
以《硅谷》和《富贵列车》知名的香港裔美国演员和喜剧演员,近期主演 Hulu 系列《内部唐人街》。
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Ge'enna:北京认为华盛顿严重违反了五月份日内瓦会谈的共识,并敦促美国促进中美经贸关系的健康稳定发展。 Chinese Ministry of Commerce:在日内瓦会谈后,中国履行了承诺,取消或暂停了一系列对美国的关税和非关税措施。相比之下,美国此后实施了多项歧视性限制,例如人工智能芯片出口限制和中国学生签证撤销,中国将坚决采取强有力措施捍卫自身权益。 Dr. Zhao Mi:我理解美国在与众多伙伴谈判方面面临压力,短期内难以完成多项任务。特朗普对中国的指责缺乏理由,谈判需要时间和框架。日内瓦达成的协议要求双方暂停关税和其他措施,中国已履行承诺,但美国却设置更多贸易壁垒。对于重要的谈判,良好的态度是双方保持合作并讨论可能性的首要条件。美国对中国的人工智能芯片出口限制和签证措施表明,他们仍在继续执行长期计划,试图阻止两国之间的谈判可能性。人工智能是中国和美国探索如何提高人工智能服务和应用能力的重要前沿领域。美国限制人工智能领域合作,向市场发出不愿与中国对话的信号,这对我们来说是个坏消息。如果美国改变对包括学生在内的人们的态度,这将阻碍两国之间的交流。如果美国改变对学生的态度,世界将认为美国没有承诺,不再信任他们。美国的行为正在破坏其声誉,但他们似乎并不自知。特朗普似乎只听他想听的,美国官员试图阻止来自市场的不利信息传递给他。越来越多的国家正在重新思考与美国打交道的可能方式,美国可能已经耗尽了二战后积累的信誉。中国正在完善系统性法规,通过国家安全、出口管制等措施使自己更加安全。根据中国的外贸法,政府有责任保护中国的公司、市场和消费者,因此中国也会采取相应的报复措施。中国始终对外开放市场,公平对待所有外国公司,但如果某些公司触及红线或扭曲市场秩序,中国政府应采取更多措施加以制止,以保护中国公司。特朗普似乎认为关税应该被夸大到更高的水平,他试图滥用关税的力量来威胁其他国家或贸易伙伴。更高的关税可能会使情况更加复杂,谈判可能不容易达成。即使是小国或大国也很难应对华盛顿日益不可预测的行为,因为它们必须考虑自身的能力和意愿。大多数国家都在考虑是否有其他替代方案,一方面与美国谈判,另一方面与其他国家讨论更好的贸易协定机制。国际社会应该更有信心,美国不会回到过去,现在是他们思考如何在新时代改善全球化的时候了。

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Beijing says Washington has severely violated the Geneva trade consensus. China reports about 11% increase in inter-regional trips during Dragon Boat Festival, and Russia and Ukraine escalate attacks ahead of planned peace talks.

Welcome to Road Today, a news program with a different perspective. I'm Ge'enna in Beijing. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching Road Today.

Our top story, Beijing says Washington has severely violated their consensus of the Geneva talks in May and urged the United States to promote the healthy, stable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations. This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump accused China of breaking the agreement without offering any details.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that Beijing had followed through on its commitments, cancelling or suspending a range of tariff and non-tariff measures against the United States after the talks. The ministry added, by contrast, the U.S. has since imposed multiple discriminatory restrictions, such as AI chip export restrictions and visa revocations for Chinese students.

Beijing stressed that it would resolutely take strong measures to defend its rights and interests.

So to delve into this, joining us on the line is Dr. Zhao Mi, a senior research fellow with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. Dr. Zhao, how do you view Washington's sudden accusation against China, especially given that no concrete evidence was provided? What's your interpretation of this timing of this statement? Well,

I understand that the United States is under the pressure of negotiating with so many partners. We know that the Secretary of Treasury of the United States has mentioned that they are talking with at least 18 different partners. So I don't think that they can do that in such a short term, especially after the dodge, you know, the ministry has made a lot of people fired.

So I think that is really our mission of impossible for them to deal with so many different kinds of missions together. Well, when we're talking about that, Donald Trump's accusation of China, I don't think that has many reasons because we know that negotiations do need some time, do need some framework before they can just try to do something to explain what's the reason for that. I don't think that, I don't really know what they really want to do to express that.

As for the negotiation, like we can find from this, the deal that we, both of us reached in Geneva,

that both sides should try to suspend what we have taken for the tariffs and also some other measurements. I think that China has fulfilled our commitments. Well, if you're looking at the United States, as the news just mentioned, that they are putting more barriers and more restrictions on China. So for the negotiation, especially for a kind of important deal, I think that the good attitude should be the priority for both sides to stay together and try to discuss about the possibility

possible ways for us to carry out the negotiations. Speaking of that, since the Geneva talks, the U.S. has imposed a series of discriminatory measures against China, from issuing AI chip export restrictions and even revoking visas for Chinese students. So how do you assess this behavior in general? On the one hand, Washington demands China abide by the agreement. Yet on the other, it repeatedly breaks it.

Beyond economic interests, do you think there is a deeper political agenda behind this blame-shifting tactic? Well, you might understand that even the negotiation team of the United States on economic parts are not just covering all the ways that the United States government are doing. So as you mentioned, the AI chips restrictions and also the visas, it seems that they still continue to try to carry out what they have planned for so many times.

so many or so long time. So actually they are trying to block the negotiation possibilities between our two countries. Well, so if you're looking at these areas, I think that those areas are really are very important areas as for the development of this technology cooperation between China and United States. As for AI, I think that is a really are important frontier for China and United States to discover

about how can we do to improve the abilities of AI services and applications. So if they are going to do that, I think that is kind of a very important signal that are showing to the market that they do not want to talk with China. I think that is a really bad news we cannot have

that expectation about what we can do. Like for the visa, I think that's really an important issue and it is even a new area. So for United States, they have opened their market for so many countries, so many centuries.

If they are going to return, you know, change their attitudes towards people, especially students from other countries, I think it definitely will block the two ways communications. Like for China and the United States, we have so many exchange of the opinions between the peoples.

So if we are not able to do that, if the students are not able to try to stay in the previous examination, after the examination, they have entered the university and they are trying to do something to do with the visa. I think that's a really bad signal that the world is expecting the United States will have no promises and we will not believe them.

To elaborate more on the AI chip export restrictions, what kind of ripple effects could these moves have on the stability and development of the global semiconductor supply chain today? Well, we know that semiconductor is in the globalization stage. It's one of the most diversified and integrated

So for the semiconductors, like China is one of the big market and also are really are trying to do more on the designing and also assembling of those chips. So they are now forbidding the export of this software in designing these semiconductors. And that's a really a big shock

for some of these companies who are using the software from the United States. But as you may find that in the previous several years when some Chinese companies have realized that, they have developed a certain kind of software by themselves in small areas or small coverage of this technology.

So this restriction will in one hand will block some of the Chinese companies of using US software, but on the other hand, they were giving more space for Chinese own companies to explore their own market. So I think that is also a very important message to give to the market. If you know, to other countries, if United States find that you are stronger, maybe they will forbid your

companies to use the software and that is definitely a bad thing for the software themselves. So for those companies, if you're looking at stock market, their stock prices have decreased a lot by these signals of United States government. So I would say that artificial intelligence do need more cooperation between the countries if the United States is trying to use its privilege or advantages in short term.

it will definitely lose advantages in the longer term. Then from the perspective of credibility and responsibility in international relations, what kind of damage do you think this kind of behavior does to the U.S. global image? Or at this point, do you think Washington still cares about his reputation at all?

Well, I don't think that they were not just trying to respect this reputation, but they do not know that their behaviors will try to destroy its reputation. Well, I think that for Donald Trump, he seems to be in some kind of a position

very small room to just listen to what they want to listen to. So for the officials of the United States, they are trying to block some of the messages coming from the market because it seems not so happy for Donald Trump. So actually, I think this time we are seeing that more and more countries are trying to rethink about

the possible ways of dealing the relation with the United States as some of the people or experts have mentioned that after the World War II, the United States have maybe used up its credibility after almost 80 years. So it's really a kind of abuse of its reputation.

We know China has urged the United States to correct its course. But if Washington continues down this path, Beijing has warned of strong countermeasures. So in your opinion, what sectors or strategies might China prioritize in its response?

Well, I think that when we're talking about this measurement or actions, I think there are two kinds of measurements. The first one is that China is trying to improve our systematically regulations and trying to make ourselves more secured by the national security, export control or other measurements. I think this measurement will not just change because some other countries want to stop

or change the situation of doing business with China. But another kind of measurement is just trying to retaliate accordingly, because according to China's foreign trade law, the government should be responsible to protect our companies, our market and consumers. So if there are some unfair practices by another country,

Chinese government should be responsible to do something, you know, correspondingly. I think that is, you know, ways of increasing the tariffs or trying to consider about some companies' attitudes or, you know, improper behaviors. But I have to say,

because China has always opened our market. So we are not just trying to do something bad to the foreign companies, no matter where they come from, from the United States or from other countries. We treat them fairly, but if some companies are doing some bad things, like, you know, to touch our red lines or trying to distort the market order, I think the Chinese government should do more to try to stop that, to protect our companies.

Dr. Zhou, last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump once again welded the tariff stick against the world, doubling duties on imported steel from 25% to 50%, drawing criticism and opposition from the European Union, Canada, South Korea, and others. So how do you view the White House's renewed tariff offensive at this point?

And what kind of message is the White House sending to the world? We know that 25 percent is already very high. But he seems to think that the numbers should be exaggerated into a higher level. He is trying to abuse the power of the tariff, trying to threat other countries or trading partners.

Like for EU, they think that the EU is not trying to cooperate with the United States. So I think that the tariff would be effective if they are putting even higher tariff because the other part maybe not so brave to try to do the same thing to United States. So when we are seeing that, you know, the three months is quickly only one month left for the so-called Greece period of United States on the

so-called reciprocal tariff. So they must be a little bit hurry to deal with this situation. Like for Donald Trump, he believe that the higher tariff can represent our stronger negotiation power to discuss the recent related issues with the trading partners. But from other sides, they are also thinking about these policies. The higher tariffs maybe means that if they make some concessions,

United States will still have about 25%, like in the previous time, maybe it's only 10%. So for the trading partners and the negotiating partners, they will rethinking about their policies to do with the negotiation with United States. I think it will make the situation even more complicated and the negotiation may be not so easy to be reached.

One last question. Given Washington's increasingly unpredictable behavior, what do you think the international community should do to respond or adapt? Well, I would say that it's very difficult for even the smaller countries or the bigger countries because they have to think something to do with their abilities and their willingness. Like for many countries, they still want to do business with the United States. I understand that.

but they were not just trying to give so many promises to the United States unilaterally. So for them, maybe they still want to make some deals with the United States, but I would say that most of them are trying to think about whether there will be possible alternatives.

So trying to negotiate with the United States on the one hand and also to talk about the better connections in the mechanism like the trade agreements with other countries would be the possible ways for many countries. I think in this regard, the international communities will

have a better confidence that the United States will not return to the past. So it's a time that they are thinking about whether they can do more to improve the globalization in the new era and that is an important thing for them to have a better, you know, stability on the international trade and make it even more stronger to, you know, restructure of the global supply chains.

Thanks, Dr. Zhou, for those valuable insights. That was Dr. Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. This is Road Today. Stay with us.

Welcome back to Road Today. Let's shift gears now and take a look at what's happening here at home. Monday marks the last day of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in China. The country's railways expect a peak in passenger flow. It estimates nearly 18 million passenger trips and over 1,200 additional trains are running.

The China Civil Aviation Administration also estimates about 2 million passenger trips on Monday. Meanwhile, China Film Industry Platform Maoyan estimated the holiday box office revenue at over 400 million yuan on Monday. With more on China's consumption trends during the Dragon Boat Festival, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Chen Jiahe, chief investment officer at Novenark Technologies.

So, Jiahe, what are some of the new tourism and consumption trends for this year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday? Well, I've personally been traveling around quite a lot of cities in China just a few months ago, and this Dragon Boat Festival will see more tourism spots actually coming in. I mean, you can find quite a few new trends. First of all,

the inbound traveling is increasing by a very large extent. China has signed visa-free policies with many countries around the world. And this list of visa-free policy is still rising. So it's a lot of foreigners coming into China. So if you come over and see the China's tourism market,

on the street, you see much more foreigners compared with a few years ago. And second is that, you know, the Chinese culture is more and more embedded into the tourism market. I mean, if you travel to many Chinese cities, what you can see is that the Chinese cultural elements is now becoming more and more important in the local tourism market.

Finally, there are more and more younger consumers in the tourism market nowadays. With people growing up from their teenager period, now they are able to consume more money in the tourism market. So you actually see more younger people in the tourism market.

This means the tourism market has to attract these younger consumers. They have to design the special features that are attractive to younger people. And as you mentioned, China is rich of cultural heritage and traditions, and that's why a lot of people are shifting their consumption from products to those featuring traditional and cultural elements. So what's your observation of that?

Yes, Chinese culture has become a very important element now in China's consumption market. I mean, you can see this importance in not only the traveling, but you can also see in many other things like culture stuff, cinemas, producing films, all these kinds of things. For example, for this

Dragon Boat Festival. The dragon boat is now becoming a very important element in the local tourism market. Recently, I'm currently in Haiku today. And recently, Haiku City has been holding the Dragon Boat Festival for two days. You see all the dragon boats, you

drifting on the Haidian River, which is the largest river of Haikou City. And if you look at Dragon Boat, which is a very traditional thing that has been there for about 2,000 years, it's now not only prevailing

in the traditional provinces, which are the southern and coastal provinces of China. But in many northern provinces of China, they're also learning this tradition. And a lot of fun has been made with these dragon boats. So this is just one tiny example about how the local culture of China is improving the tourism markets. I mean, after all, China's a country with a--

history of over 5000 years. So it's a long history, it's a lot of culture. And with the growing of the consumption economy and the domestic economy, I mean, these cultural elements have been more and more commercialized and you can see them more and more reflected in the tourism market.

And there is a recent McKinsey report saying, you know, Chinese consumers are shifting spending to products and services that help them achieve personal fulfillment. And consumers are spending more on intangible services and experiences that will give them joy and personal satisfaction. So how significant is this trend? Yeah, that's right. And because China is now working from what we call the

the middle income country toward a country that is higher income. I mean, currently the per capita GDP is about 13 to 14,000 USD per capita. So this is a level where you have the

most rapid growth of the discretionary consumption. People, you know, pay money for intangible stuff. People pay money not only for food and beverage, not only paying money for fuel, but they're also paying

more and more money for entertainment, especially the younger generation, they start to pay a much larger portion of their income to this kind of enjoyment consumption and discretionary consumption. So this is a very rapid growing part of the Chinese economy. It will help China's economy to go to a higher level. For example, if you look at the US economy, things like

Hollywood is really producing a large percentage of the GDP and Hollywood is basically for entertainment.

So this is a very important cornerstone for China's economic growth in the coming, not only a few years, but maybe in the next few decades. And for consumption, since last year, the government has rolled out measures to boost consumption. It has reduced the bank reserve requirement ratio to put more liquidity into the market and decrease the mortgage rates and also supported trading programs. So how

How are these government policies boosting the consumption? The government has been setting particular policies to support the consumption. And this has helped the consumption growth by a very large extent. I mean, if you look at China's economy in the past three or four years, one of the headwinds comes from the real estate market.

And with the pressure coming from the real estate market, China has to boost its consumption in order to counter this impact. So the government set out so many policies. And from the consequences, what we can see is that these policies are really working. I mean, if you look at the growth of China's economy,

the consumption economy in the past few years. We have seen a lot of growth with many items. I mean, even things like air conditioner, which was traditionally sought to be highly related with the growth of the property market.

The air conditioner market has also seen a very rapid improvement in the past two or three years, basically because China has been given out this trade-in program. So it's a lot of people are replacing their old air conditioner

by a new one. So that this increase to the consumption as well. So these policies has been really effective, especially when China's economy is facing this headwind from the real estate market. Currently, this headwind has been ongoing for four

I think it's about four or five years since its peak in 2020. So it looks like this pressure is now gradually reducing. So that's why we can expect more of China's economic growth in the next one or two years. And earlier you mentioned the young generation, young people's consumption. One example is that the domestic IP toy market that is really booming, for example, the Pop Mart market.

Labubu line sells really well. They said they are sold out globally. So what do you think is driving their explosive popularity in China and around the world? Well, this is a very successful creation of IP, I mean, which Chinese economy didn't do before. I mean, most of this job were done by

the leading economists in the world like the Hollywood has been setting a lot of successful IPs. But China hasn't been doing this before. But this time they are doing a very good job to show that China's economy is capable of producing successful IPs, to produce successful IP economy, to create a kind of trend among the younger people because these kind of toys are basically bought by the

people who are in their 10s or early 20s. So this is a very successful example. I don't think this will be the last one that China is producing. So with the growing of China's domestic

consumption economy with the growing of China's you know discretionary economy what you will see that there will be more and more IPS like this coming out in the future so this will be a very amazing thing for China's business world that was Chen Jiahe chief investment officer and novenark Technologies speaking with our Zhao Yang you are listening to road today we'll be back after a short break foreign

Welcome back to Road Today with Mika Anna in Beijing. It's been a weekend of intense firepower between Russia and Ukraine, just as both sides gearing up for a new round of peace talks.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Ukraine launched drone strikes targeting military airfields across five regions on Sunday. Ukraine said the operation was its longest-range attack of the conflict and involved over 100 drones hitting Russian military planes. Meantime, Ukraine's air force said Russia launched over 470 drones at Ukraine overnight and fired seven missiles.

The attacks came ahead of peace talks scheduled on Monday in Istanbul. Let's dig into what's driving this escalation and whether diplomacy still has a fighting chance with Dr. Aleksey Mravyev, Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University in Australia. Welcome, Professor.

Professor, in the lead-up to the latest Russia-Ukraine talks, we've seen a strain of dramatic incidents, from the collapse of bridges inside Russia to drone strikes on Russia airfields. Kiev has described this as successful special operations, while Moscow has dismissed some of them as fabrications and launched a criminal investigation. So from the lens of information warfare and psychological tactics,

Could these events be part of a both-sides strategy to gain leverage before heading to the negotiating table? Well, I think it's symbolic that the escalation is taking place around the time when Russian and Ukrainian delegations are meeting or supposed to meet so clearly. Yet another spin of violence is the

designed to disrupt, either disrupt or somehow affect the conduct and perhaps the outcomes of those negotiations. Because clearly what we see right now is the escalation ladder when a set of events lead to a response by the other side, which leads to further response by the side that

perhaps instigated it in the first instance, and the spiral continues. So in this sense, it's clearly designed to create a very uncomfortable background for the negotiators. But the very specificity of these attacks, because as you have mentioned, Russian strategic bomber bases have been targeted, kind of really escalates this situation

beyond Russia-Ukraine direct confrontation, but this time also involving the United States because the positioning of those bombers, particularly in unprotected open environments, was done in accordance with the provisions

all this pretty g_-come i'll look at arms reduction street assigned by russia and the united states according to which either side have to basically openly position they have almost sold out of sight cam verified their numbers their variables

and locations. So by Ukraine attacking those bombers, it actually kind of creates difficulties not only for the Russian leadership, obviously will consider it to be a shortfall of the security services, but also for the United States, because the Russians will come back to Washington, quite possibly, and simply say, well, we cannot longer maintain provisions of those treaties because it puts our strategic nuclear forces at risk.

Speaking of the United States, Washington is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, President Trump has floated the idea of a trilateral summit with Zelensky and Putin. On the other hand, Washington has sharpened its rhetoric with strong accusations against Moscow just last week. So how should we rate the U.S. position and its tendency on the matter right now?

I think U.S. President Trump finds himself in a very delicate position. And certainly this latest round of escalation will actually put him in a very uncomfortable position because the Ukrainian sources point out that Kiev officially notified Washington of its intent to deliver strikes

again, Russian strategic targets, and later on, it was apparently, disinformation was apparently dismissed, because if Donald Trump was informed or wasn't known of those attacks and kind of kept it to himself, that really implicates him in the eyes of the Russians, because

for the reasons I have explained earlier. If news that has come out of Kyiv may prove to be a hoax, well, then obviously it places Donald Trump in an also uncomfortable position because either he will pretend that what the Ukrainians are saying about him and implicating him

means very little, or he will have to turn around and kind of say, or more importantly, act harshly against the Ukrainians. And clearly that creates more problems for him because his anti-Russia, anti-Putin rhetoric in recent days, I think, was more triggered by domestic considerations and the need for Trump to demonstrate that he

is not just taking Zelensky verbally and by action, but also putting pressure on Putin. Otherwise, he would be accused of effectively sidelining with the Russians and being sympathetic to Russia's course in Ukraine. Professor, about the negotiation itself, as the Russia and Ukraine delegations arrive in Istanbul for the second round of peace talks...

Both sides remain sharply divided. Moscow says a ceasefire must be tied to political demands like the non-easterwards expansion of NATO and Ukraine's neutrality. And Kiev insists, first the shooting stops, then we talk. So what does this disagreement reveal about each side's broader strategic priorities?

Look, I mean, it's a demonstration that it's a very long way to go before some sort of compromise can be struck unless something radical occurs on the battlefield. And I think a lot of the conversation will be affected by developments on the battlefield. I think I would not rule out the possibility that

Russia will use these communication channels with Ukrainians in Istanbul as a way to disseminate messages about what it can do in response to those attacks because

it really puts Kremlin in a very delicate position because it sort of forces it to activate provisions of its nuclear foundations doctrine, which was released back in 2020. And we haven't seen any official reaction from any Kremlin officials, leave alone Russia's President Vladimir Putin. And as history has demonstrated, when Putin says nothing after a major event like an act of sabotage or a terrorist attack, that means

He is entertaining various options. He would come back, but come back with a surprise. So perhaps one of the possibilities that he is entertaining is seeking Ukrainian reaction to perhaps what Russian delegation will be communicating to them in Istanbul simply because of this latest round of escalation.

Professor, Russian has hinted that Black Sea navigation safety could be one area where the two sides might find common ground. So do you see any realistic space for compromise on this issue? And where do both sides stand on maritime security?

Well, clearly they have polarized views because Russia's position is to dominate the Black Sea. Ukraine will never accept this, nor is NATO. But Russia will not accept the situation when it would be forced to compromise and some sort of negotiate agreement.

a settlement where its national interest in the pivotal maritime domain may be affected in one way or another. So again, at this point in time, I don't really see that there would be a settlement. There may be a temporary solution in terms of opening up some sort of maritime corridor. But if the Russians said that when they try this

at least option before as part of the so-called green deal they didn't really see a lot of my ability because they kept accusing the west all using this maritime corridor as a way of friends you did weapons and military supplies that to ukraine simply because of the system of checks

that was supposed to imply didn't apparently work. So I think it would once again be a matter of seeing what will come out on the battlefield, because I think one of the core matters that is linked to this question of settling

conflicting interest in the Black Sea is also who is going to is also into the question who is going to control Ukraine's largest seaport, Odessa. And I think that that is part of negotiations as well. Professor,

Professor, as you mentioned, even as both sides express a willingness to negotiate, the core issues like territory, long-term security guarantees remain deeply unresolved. So based on past experience, if this round also collapses, are we likely to see a dramatic escalation in fighting? And if so, what might that mean for the broader regional and global security landscape?

Well, I think we need to entertain two possibilities. We need to assume that this is not going to be a concluding round unless something really radical happens. I think both sides will probably be showing will to continue to negotiate. So in this sense, we shouldn't be expecting any breakthroughs this time around. But I won't be looking at it at this point in time as a closing chapter. But if this

going to be the final round when the Ukrainians and the Russians would meet face to face. While clearly it will just be a matter of demonstrating will to continue to fight or continue to resist, then the battlefield will determine the outcome. Given the current trajectory,

Clearly, the Russians will continue to gain more control over Ukraine territory, despite their losses inflicting more losses on Ukraine. And it would be a matter of how much more punishment Ukraine would be able to take in terms of sustaining significant human losses, losing territory, and so on and so forth. So one way or another, I would expect a return to the negotiations table, either as a continuation of this round or...

down the track simply because this war cannot go on forever. Thanks, Professor. Appreciate your take on this. That was Dr. Alexey Mravyev, Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University in Australia. Coming back, we'll take a look at the presidential runoff in Poland. This is World Today. Stay with us.

In a world increasingly divided, can diplomacy speak with a new voice? From Hong Kong, a bold new initiative is taking shape. The International Organization for Mediation, or IOMED, promises to settle disputes not with judges and rulings, but with conversation and consensus. Is this a fresh, flexible alternative to the courtroom, or a so-called challenge to the existing global legal order?

This week on The Chat Lounge, we dive into the future of peaceful dispute resolution, feel the power of dialogue wherever you listen to podcasts and on CGTN Radio. This is Road Today.

Karo Nowroszki, an independent candidate backed by the opposition Law and Justice Party, has won Poland's presidential runoff election. According to the final vote count released by Polish National Electoral Commission, Nowroszki secured over 50% of the vote and defeated Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.

The independent candidate is an historian and head of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance. He is said to succeed incumbent President Andrzej Duda, whose second and final term ends in August. So for more on this, let's have Dr. Kamil Makilev, associate professor at the School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg. Thank you so much for joining us.

Thank you for having me. Let's start with the basics here. Karol Nowroski hasn't been a widely known figure internationally. What should we know about him? And how did a relatively low-profile historian rise to win the presidency? And what role did the backing from the Law and Justice Party play in his victory?

Well, Karol Nowroski, he is a relatively young candidate, born only in 1983. If we look at the previous presentation,

presidential candidates in Poland. He is a historian who previously led the Institute of National Remembrance and the Museum of Second World War in Poland. So these two tenures, they were really marked by his strong emphasis on nationalist narratives, particularly focusing on Polish victimhood during the World War II and the communist era. So he's a known nationalist.

And despite lacking previous political experience, his presidential campaign was very much bolstered by the backing of the Law and Justice Party, this very conservative party in Poland, which provided him with significant organizational and financial support. And his platform, it's centered on the national sovereignty issues, traditional Catholic values, and very much skepticism towards European Union.

His appeal resonated particularly with rural and conservative regions of Poland, where voters are drawn to, you know,

to his outsider status and promises to defend Polish interests against the perceived external pressures. With backing from the largest opposition Law and Justice Party, does this one signal a resurgence of support for a law and justice platform even after the party lost control of the parliament last year? Or is this more of a protest vote reflecting public dissatisfaction with the current liberal coalition government?

Well, Nowroszki ran as independent, that is true, but his close association with the Law and Justice Party, it suggests that his victory reflects this kind of combination of enduring support of the party's platform and public dissatisfaction with the current liberal coalition government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. So the historic support for Law and Justice Party from a conservative side of Poland is still there. It's also a very narrow margin of his win, right? 50%.

Of course, the implications extend beyond Poland's borders.

Now, Wroczki is known for his anti-Russia and pro-US stance. So how do you view the likely direction of Poland's foreign policy under his leadership, especially in terms of relations with Russia and the United States? Well, if we take the United States first, I think Wroczki has expressed a strong support to the close ties of the United States.

particularly under the leadership of former President Donald Trump. You even see in their political styles, both populist, both this kind of conservative appealing. He also advocates for Poland to take a leading role in transatlantic relations and has emphasized the importance of US-Polish cooperation in security and economic matters. On the other side, if we take his stance on Russia, it's a firm anti-Russia stance, clear

criticizing past European policies that he perceived as, you know, like naive in dealing with Russian aggression, for example. And Navrotsky has suggested that maintaining diplomatic ties with Russia is not beneficial for Poland at all. So it's very, very strict stance. When it comes to Ukraine, while supporting Ukraine's sovereignty, Navrotsky has been very critical of

Ukraine's historical accountability, particularly concerning the Volhynia massacres, which is a tension between Poland and Ukraine. And he stated that Ukraine should not join the EU or NATO until Ukraine addresses these historical issues.

He's also very skeptical of deeper EU integration and opposes the federalization of the European Union. He advocates for maintaining Polish national identity and sovereignty within the EU framework. So that's his positioning. Speaking of the European Union, how might his presidency affect Poland's relationship with the European Union, especially on issues like judicial reform, migration, and where tensions have flared in recent years under the Law and Justice Party?

Well, I mean, if we take the domestic priorities, right, the Novorossiys expected to support the judicial reforms that align with the conservative values, potentially challenging the liberal government's efforts to reverse previous law and justice party changes.

On the social policies, he's pledged to uphold his traditional family values, again, conservative views, and oppose liberal initiatives such as expanding abortion rights or recognizing civil unions. So his policies do align with the law and justice parties most of the time. Internationally, it's the same thing. His skepticism towards EU may potentially lead to tensions in Brussels, particularly concerning the issues like

judicial independence and that her adherence to the eu laws by the poland in ukraine policy for example he's going to be balancing support for ukraine with demands for historical accountability but that could also complicate poland's role as a regional security actor and strain the relations with kiev and western allies at the same time one should remember that he is a very much

a figure that has very little political power, but his legislative veto power, which is a substantial one, can create government's lack of veto, you know, combined with the government's, current government's lack of veto-proof majority, it can create legislative stalemates, particularly on contentious issues, and thus block the ability of Poland government to function.

Thanks, Professor, for your insights. We'll be watching closely to see how this new chapter in Polish politics unfolds. That was Dr. Kamal Makilelew, Associate Professor at the School of Global Studies at University of Gothenburg. This is World Today. Stay tuned.

Chinese-American stand-up comedian Jimmy O. Yan is back on tour in China. Jimmy was born in Hong Kong and later moved to the U.S. as a teenager, but he also very proud of his roots as his family originated from Shanghai. Tian Wei spoke with him prior to his big shows in Hong Kong. The conversation took place in Beijing, a city Jimmy loves to visit.

I know. I eat like five meals a day here. I must have gained so much weight. There's just so much good food. Did you call your mom? I talked to her on WeChat on the messages. Oh, you did? She loves it. She says she never used to go on Xiaohongshu. And now she goes on once a day to see my content and who's taking picture with me because they post it. So that she knows what's going on in China today, right? Yeah, yeah. She travels here pretty often, right? Yeah, but not recently. But she'll come to my show in Hong Kong.

So our family will be together again in Hong Kong. Your, you know, show with the theme, Jimmy, Jimmy, guess how much? That went viral, not only here in China, but also in the rest of the world. Yeah, yeah, I was...

very happy about that because I didn't know because this was before I even joined Xiaohongsu and then my mom was telling me hey your auntie and your uncle in Shanghai sent us this video of yours they translated everything. People love to brag about how much money they spent. Asian people on the other hand, we do the exact opposite. We love to brag about how little money we spent on some shit because the art is in the savings. You never pay full price.

And I was really happy about that and that I think

Like with that last special, this whole special is called Guess How Much? And I started getting more personal. I started talking about my family, my real experiences. And instead of like translating everything to English, I even put in some Cantonese. And I even, I just said it how exactly my mom would call me like, Jimmy. And how my mom would talk like as a Shanghainese woman was like, oh, yeah. And people loved it. And I think sometimes you just got to share your truth.

And like, you know, I have friends from every culture, you know, American friends or even my Middle Eastern friends. They're like, my mom is like that too. You know, so I think sometimes you just got to tell your story, you know, and be vulnerable and be honest. But you know what?

I would guess it's not easy for people to really find their own version of the story. That's true. And be able to express it in a way and a situation that others would feel the echoes. Yes, yes. How did you find this common theme? I mean, you've been a comedian for quite some time. Yeah. But this topic has become such a signature. How did you find it?

That's such a great question. I think on average it takes a comedian like 10 years to find your own voice. And the great thing about stand-up comedy is the only way to get better is to perform in front of a real audience. Is there real official statistics about that? I don't know. I just think like my first special called Good Deal, it took me 10 years. The second special only took me two years because I started finding my voice, right? And the next one I'll keep like going. But

I think the great thing is you get an immediate reaction from the audience. If they laugh, that means they relate to your joke. That means they like it. If they don't laugh, go home, rewrite it, come back, be better the next day. So for me, it's been 15 years of trial and error and writing and rewriting and being on stage thousands of times to find what works for me and what works for my audience. I still remember the very first time I did an open mic when I was 21 years old.

I had to pay $5 to the comedy club for them to let me go on stage for five minutes. I was not very good at first, but still I liked it. I felt the sense of community. It's a creative outlet that I never knew that I could do. 'Cause you don't need a tool, right? I don't need a guitar.

I don't need singing lessons. I don't need running shoes. I can just go on stage. That's it. It's my thought straight to your ears. And here. Yeah, and here. A lot of it is here, I think. And then I think the first time that I kind of had an inkling that I might have made it in stand-up comedy was my first televised set. It was on the Arsenio Hall show.

So the Arsenio Hall show, he's an old talk show host like Johnny Carson and Jay Leno. But his audience is mostly black people. So he's interviewed Eddie Murphy, Prince, Michael Jackson, Mike Tyson, everyone, right? He's a legend. And I get to go on a show. I think the first Chinese comedian to be on a show to do comedy. And I was nervous. It was my first TV set that was filmed. How you guys doing? Yeah!

Lovely! It's great to be here. Seriously amazing for me to be here tonight. Like I'm so blessed. I'm actually an immigrant. I moved to this country when I was 13 years old from Hong Kong, China. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. And then the audience was 80, 90% African American.

And I was nervous, I did 5-8 minutes and I got a standing ovation. My first standing ovation, I was so lucky to get it on that TV show. And I was like, oh my god, maybe I did something right here. This transcends, right? I hope so, I think so. Having said that though, this phrase, guess how much?

could become viral. Also for another reason. There's a tariff war going on. Everybody was saying, this is how much now. Everybody is checking the price tag every day. But you are so brave in tackling those questions into your stand-up. My stand-up, yeah. Usually I don't talk about politics in life or in stand-up. That's not what I... I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to politics. But the tariff thing, I felt like...

I don't know because I am Chinese, but I also live in America. So I feel like I should say something about it. And it's also a frustration.

and an unfairness, I feel like, that was shared with everyone globally. Everyone globally suffered from it. Unfair about what? The tariff. For whom? The hiked up price, you know, that it was a bit unfair to put tariffs on everyone for no reason. And then the American people suffered and everyone globally suffered. And I think it became a sheer frustration for everyone. So when I just went on stage and talked about it, I didn't have to

pick a side or whatever, I just set my frustration and everyone shared the same sentiment. And usually when I, you know, make a joke or shoot something, I wait until one year later to shoot a special, right? Like, guess how much or something. But this one, I'm like, it's so timely, I have to put it out. And I was very happy that I guess people resonated because it got a lot of views and I guess people...

Liked it, you know, but you know these days comedians have so many things to cook. Hmm There are so many things going on in the world that really in the essence are ridiculous, right? How would you choose you know your topic?

Yeah, once again, the tariff, I would say it's almost like a one-off thing that I did, you know, because of my own frustration and the global frustration. Usually I stay away from politics and I talk about myself, like my family, like what made me who I am. The reason why you know me is not because I talk about politics. It's because I talk about my mom, because I talk about my experience in America. At the

end of the day what I hope my comedy would do is for an audience whether they grow up like me like Chinese or not to feel seen to relate to me and be like wow

I didn't know other people's moms are like that too. Wow, and everyone's laughing. I didn't know, wow, I felt so out of place when I came to America or when I was an immigrant. But like, wow, he's like that too? That's cool. That made me feel better, you know? They will not only find what they feel like, share some common experiences online in social media, but they can come into a comedian club and be able to share with someone from a very different culture upstage. And I think that's the best thing

thing about live performances, whether it's music or comedy especially, when you say a joke and the entire audience is laughing, they're not just laughing and sharing a laugh, they're sharing an experience. They're sharing life together because they all agree, they're like, wow, we like this. Because in comedy, I don't think it's funny when you say something funny, when you make up something outrageous. It's funny when the audience will be like, oh my God, that is so true.

The truth is funny. They're like, oh my God, my mom does that. That's when they laugh. I love that. That's exactly the secret, isn't it? Yeah, I think so. I think it's important to not just bring laughs. That is the most important thing in stand-up. But also to have the shared experience and really tell a real story. So sometimes there are serious moments when you come to my stand-up show. And then sometimes there's laughs.

And this new set, which you haven't seen, you'll see if you come to one of the live shows, is about me kind of coming home and getting back in touch with my roots and things like that. And a lot of times it's quite emotional because I felt like for the last 20 years I lost touch with my Chinese side. So it's very...

personal and important journey for me to come back. And I want to share that with the audience. That was Jamie O'Yan, Chinese-American stand-up comedian speaking with Tian Wei. That's all the time for this edition of Road Today. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching Road Today. I'm Gui Anna. Thank you so much for listening.