How China prepares for worst-case scenarios as external pressures mount
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China's top leaders are stepping up preparations for potential worst-case scenarios amid mounting external pressures. Meanwhile, the country's top economic planner says there is plenty of room for future policy adjustments to keep growth on track. And in Canada, voters headed to polls in an election heavily influenced by Washington's tariff policies and annexation threats.

Welcome to Road Today, a news program with a different perspective. I'm Ge'enna in Beijing. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching Road Today.

China's top leaders are ramping up preparations for potential worst-case scenarios as external pressures continue to mount. The Politburo of the Communist Party of China Central Committee has held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and set priorities for upcoming economic work.

General Secretary Xi Jinping of the CPC Central Committee presided over the meeting. The meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the foundations for a steady economic recovery. It also highlighted efforts to boost domestic consumption, deepen high-level opening up, and stabilize both foreign trade and investment.

Key measures discussed also included accelerating the building of a more unified national market, encouraging more Chinese companies to expand globally, and keeping the real estate and capital markets on a stable footing. For more insight into what this means for China's economic trajectory, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Professor Qu Qiang, fellow at the Belt and Road Research Center at Mingzhu University of China.

So, Professor Qu, talking about the meeting held by the Political Bureau, what's the main message? And how can the fiscal and monetary policy tools be further optimized to effectively stimulate the real economy, do you think?

well well i think the message is very loud and clear uh that is we're facing a very turbulent world right now um many challenges coming towards not only china but many of the south south nations so i think that's the reason why the central government of china has been holding this conference um to help us to buffer all this kind of impact on number one i think in the fiscal policies uh i think the main idea is the government will

you know enlarges spending uh by spending more to support the infrastructures technology companies as well as for the people's livelihood so that we can create more of the effective you know demand and drive up the whole economy and for examples i think uh we have already got the new new deal kind of the uh idea to invest in the infrastructure so that we can create jobs and also stabilize the basic

investment so that the basic growth speed can be maintained. And meanwhile, I think many of the enterprises, the government will use the monetary and also the fiscal policies combined together to help them to reduce the burdens and also to help them to get the tax rebate and also to help them to relieve all the burdens on the insurances. For example, the house insurances or the jobless insurances. They used to have, you know, in China we have a

triple party sharing system for example all the workers the enterprises and the government they all need to pay their share and the enterprises sometimes feel very difficulties in the slowing down period of time so i think the government want to you know take over this responsibility partially to help those enterprises to you know reduce the burden to pay for this kind of insurances and also

We're going to issue more of the long-term bond and the specific special bond to help the local government to take over their local debt. And also the long-term bond is also to help the central government slash also the local government to invest more on the infrastructures and also to help the enterprises to lower their burdens. So I think this is the fiscal side and also monetary side.

Like I just mentioned, we need to really provide ample liquidities in this slowing down period of time, especially with international impact. Tariff is going to hurt, tariff war is going to hurt many of the export-oriented companies, so that we need to lower the RRR, we need to lower the LPR, we need to help them to reduce the burden, help them to borrow the money.

And also to create more of the innovative facilities financially to help them to stabilize very targeted businesses.

market. It's like the lowering of the RRR or the LPR is basically like, you know, very macro tools to provide the liquidity for everybody. It's not very targeted. We've been using that at the end of last year. We've been seeing some effect, but not quite as good as we expected. So I think that's the reason why central government, the

mentioned clearly this time we're going to create more of the SPV, special purpose vehicle or special purpose facilities. For example, like the stabilization fund for the stock market. At the end of last year, we'll be seeing this been really working. Central Bank, especially the central Huijin company, they've been set up this kind of special stabilization fund for the stock market. So I think from the last quarter,

We've been seeing that the stock market has been stabilized from 2700 points. Now it's 3300 points. They're very stable, even though we've been seeing the tariff shock has been hurting all over the world's stock market, even America itself. The Chinese stock market is stabilized. But now we're going to extend this mechanism from stock market to housing market to bond market so that the whole tools can really stabilize the

stabilize every market and people's confidence can come back. And then we're going to talk about the other long-term policies, for example, like jobs, like people's income, like investing in the longer-term technology development. So I think that's the basic idea for the central government.

And the meeting highlighted the need to boost the service consumption, urging a swift removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector. So how do you explain that strengthening the consumption's role in driving economic growth? Why is it so important for China? Well, China is one of the largest consumption market.

We're saying that in the whole Western society, they have one billion customers, very effective customers because their average GDP per capita is about more than 30,000 or 40,000 US dollars. So that – they are – make them a very important consumption market. But China, I think we have 1.4 billion population, and it becomes the very second very important large market, a unified market for the whole world.

So I think we need to utilize this kind of advantage for ourselves. For one thing, this is – everybody wants to have a better life. They want to have some good things for their life. And also if China wanted to clamp over the threshold from a middle-income country to a higher-income country, we need to make sure that the service sector and the consumption sectors share in the whole GDP ratio.

be more than 50%. And this is our target. So you need to help people switch the whole economic structures from manufacturing towards consumption. And we still have some limits in the consumption. For example, like the liquidities and the salaries level. This is something we need to really solve. And also the market competition and also about people's burdens on the consumption. For example, social security.

Like the health care, like the old age caring, like the children's caring, like education. All this in China, we call them the large lumps on consumption burdens. So if you were going to spend more money on that, you wouldn't have much of the cash left in your pocket for like a hotel, tourism, culture, sports, etc.

and also the daily groceries. So that's the whole idea. I think the government is trying to help our people to lower this burden and also some other things also impeding people's consumption behavior. For example, like our return services and refund services and also the quality of the product. I think that's not the job for the government, but the government can guide the enterprises to solve it in the market level. So I think we still need to form the synergies

from the government to the consumers to the enterprises together to create a better environment for the consumption. And what are the key policy priorities for managing the risks in some critical sectors such as property market and local government debt? Well, yes, I think currently I don't think China really have that kind of typical so-called systematic risk as we have already seen in the subprime crisis in 2008.

or the European debt crisis back in 2014. I think China's version is quite different. I think it made – our problem right now still lies with the local government debt and housing market. Basically, this is just two sides of one coin. I think this is basically a domestic issue. So a domestic debt is not real debt. It's more like a tax. So we don't think there is systematic risks here.

here, but if we do not solve this problem well, it will actually hurt our economic growth, will slow everything down. That can be a problem.

So I think government really understand that. Number one, I think liquidity has already been there. The government mentioned very clearly we're going to lower the RRR and LPR to see what is the right timing. That's for sure. So we're going to see the government use this monetary tool to do so. And also, like just mentioned, stabilization fund and all kinds of the SPV or SPF is going to be there to stabilize the housing market to help local government stabilize

you know to repurchase to repo all kinds of the uh leftover you know complexes apartments for public leasing purposes so you can actually this is more than just a pro bono project to lease those you know apartment to you know young people to people with very limited affordability but

But more you can consider that is a liquidity project because once the government repo that and lease them out, so the money started to flow within this project again. So this has been ultimately good. And also we're going to help to subsidize the families who are going to purchase the houses.

and also to help the local government to have more to fund, to have the upgrading project for the shantytown, for the old buildings, and all this can reactivate the whole market. And also for the bond market, I think local government bond, we have already seen in the government make sure that the monetary policy, fiscal policy, special bond, ultra long bond was going to be issued to help the local government. So I think if we can diffuse these two bonds,

economic growth will be further improved and people's confidence will come back. And then consumption wouldn't be a problem anymore. So I think this is ultimately the route for slowing down currently.

So, I think the government has already prepared to do so. And a good sign is that if you take a look at the statistics, - housing market and local government debt, - this two-market has already been much improved in the Q1 this year. The second-hand housing market in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen -

It's getting warmer and warmer. And also in what we call the emerging first-year cities also being getting very good in the housing market, you know, sales. And the meeting also noted efforts should be made to expand high standard opening up to address the uncertainties and stabilize employment and businesses. So how significant is that?

I think this is really, really important. Look, Americans created a tariff situation. I think this is a crisis for the whole world, but also it's an opportunity. So when one major economy shuts down its door towards the world investor consumers,

I think, well, China, on the contrary, as we always promised, we're going to open up wider and with more transparent stance. This is not because of the Trump because we've been talking about this in the past five years already. And also in the past 40 years, China is keeping on doing so. So this is a long-term vision. It's a long-term target for China.

Even though China's economy does not quite rely on export already. Export sectors only account for like 20 percent of Chinese GDP, much, much lower. China has been majorly relying on its own development right now. But still we understand it's not only about money. It's about getting access towards the international standard. You always have to anchor yourself towards international high standard. It's about innovation and technology.

You only – if you want to have this, you need to open up your door. And also it's about management skills. It's about nurturing talents. So I think this philosophy has already been implemented and carried on for many years and even in the future. We're still doing that.

That was Professor Qu Qiang, fellow at the Belt and Road Research Center at Mingzhu University of China. Coming up, China's top economic planner says there is ample room for further policy adjustments to support growth. This is Road Today. Stay with us. Hello, my name is Alessandro Golombievski Teixeira. I'm a professor of public policy management at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

I am a great listener of The Wall Today. In my opinion, The Wall Today is one of the best China radio programs. In The Wall Today, we can get the best news and analysis in what is happening now in the world. So please, come to join us.

You are listening to Road Today. Let's continue our discussion on China's economic planning. China's top economic planner says there is ample room for further policy adjustments to support growth. New measures introduced include expanding the consumer goods trading program and efforts to revitalize the capital market. The National Development and Reform Commission says authorities will maintain strategic focus no matter how the international situation evolves.

Officials also expressed full confidence in achieving this year's economic and social development targets.

So to delve into this, we are joined by Liu Zhiching, senior fellow with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. Let's start with the overall economic picture. China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than last year's 5%.

full-year growth. That's indeed a very good start. But with the external environment becoming more complex and uncertain, including ongoing trade frictions, what further steps will China take to stabilize employment and the economy? And how will these measures help strengthen economic resilience and ability to manage risks?

As we know that the government has laid great attention and importance to stress the problem of the employment. That's why today's conference has really released a major message to the market.

In my opinion, I think they have already proposed five major measures to step up the employment rate, especially in two sections, I should say. One is that they give more policy

support to have more channels for the employment. So give many companies and all these institutions that who are willing to employ more staffs, they will be encouraged and with the financial support from the government, especially in large expand some opportunities that for new jobs creation.

And the second also, they proposed that the state subsidies to those companies who are hiring more staffs, especially for the young graduates from the universities to give some incentive support financially, also in the market access. So I think by doing these two points, many companies are eager to have more courage and strength

hire more employment that we can really improve the employment situation. So because the employment is the major challenge for our government for this year, so only we solve these challenges and also the uncertainties from the outside, I think the economic resilience will be ensured in Chinese economy and especially

But since late last year and especially this year, we've seen Washington ramping up tariffs and acting unilaterally, seriously infringing on the legitimate rights of other nations, including China.

So against this backdrop of growing global trade challenges, what actions has China proposed to stabilize foreign trade? And in your view, how might these policies support Chinese businesses in tackling international market challenges and expanding their presence overseas? Yes, frankly speaking, the tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese trade

products has really very heavy and negative impact, especially on those foreign trade and foreign companies here in China. So this is a very important challenge also for the local government. That's why from the central government has issued a series of policies to support this foreign trade business, especially in two ways. I think one way is that

We encourage more foreign investors to do more business in China in different areas. So the market access will be more active and released at a lower standard to invite more foreign businessmen coming to China.

And secondly, it's also that to enlarge and expand the domestic market also for the foreign trade products. That means we can digest some of these products that are normally for export nowadays that we can have it in the domestic market. They find a good sales opportunities also in the same area, in the same province.

So in this way, China has already unified domestic market and also unified domestic circulation. This will help foreign investment and foreign trade to do more business within China.

Speaking of domestic market, boosting consumption is another key focus. China has launched a special campaign to strengthen consumer spending from improving purchasing power to enhancing the supply of quality products and creating a better consumption environment. How effective do you think these measures will be? And are there any particular outcomes you are expecting to see?

From the facts, we can see that the market is really booming in the past several months with the support policy issued by the government. You know that the government has made significant support to domestic consumption because

The domestic consumption is also playing a very important role in the overall economic development in China. It's now already over 65 or 70% of

total GDP. But still there are some big rules and opportunities to stimulate more consumption, especially when we see that in the past weeks that many new trends and new models of consumption has emerged and attracted more investors and attracted more businessmen here. So the consumption for consumers are now the two

driving force in the Chinese economic picture. So we see that

the more consumers that are eager or have high enthusiasm to have more consumption, not only for the AI product but also for traditional products, they are at much demand. So in this way, we are very confident that the special campaign will stimulate the people's enthusiasm for consumption and also will have more special outcomes, for instance,

The local government has more gain from this campaign and more companies have better revenue also in the past several months because of this special campaign to increase, to encourage the consumption.

Building on that, China has also announced a major investment plan with 5 trillion yuan, or about 690 billion US dollars to be invested at the national level this year. Which sectors are likely to be the main beneficiaries and how important will this investment be? I think from the point of view of the government, they have already made a profound and deep investigation.

for the market demand, especially for the urbanization campaign. And secondly, how to improve the

the old city infrastructure, for instance, gas line and also for some other water supply. So all these infrastructure in some cities are already over 30 or 40 years old. It's time to replace or to upgrade all these infrastructures.

general calculation according to the information that such a consumption, such a plant that really need at least 4 trillion to 5 trillion yuan. So this is the major investment landscape that to have more investigation and also investment also in the

the city's modernization. This is the best way for attracting more investment. Briefly, another move that's getting a lot of attention is the push to establish a national venture capital guiding fund. How do you see this fund working in practice to attract more private investment into emerging industries and innovation projects today?

Because actually before, at the beginning of the opening up, China has a lot of foreign venture capital in China that played a very positive role to support innovation and the new modernization in China.

Nowadays we have the venture capital fund is only for a subsidies of the new projects especially in the infrastructure and also in the high tech is especially also in AI technologies because this field are the main

Indeed. Thanks, Mr. Lo Jiuqing. This is World Today. We'll be back.

Welcome back to Road Today with me, Ge'Anna, in Beijing. We now turn to developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested he wants a deal to end the Russian-Ukraine conflict in two weeks or less. This comes a day after he met with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in Rome to attend Pope Francis' funeral in Vatican City on Saturday.

Trump said he was very disappointed that Russia continued to carry out missile and drone strikes in Ukraine. He also said he believes Zelensky is willing to give up Crimea to Russia as part of a peace deal, despite denials by the Ukrainian leader.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week will be very critical for Russian-Ukraine conflict talks as the U.S. decides whether to continue pursuing a negotiated settlement or turn its attention to other matters. So for more on this, my colleague Zhao Ying joins us in the studio. Welcome, Zhao. Thank you. How much do we know about Trump's meeting with Zelensky and how significant was it?

Well, this actually marks the first face-to-face encounter between Trump and Zelensky since their unpleasant meeting in the White House in February. And it lasted for about 15 minutes. The White House described the meeting as very productive, and the Ukrainian president said it had the potential to become historic.

So we can also see from the photos that the two men were sitting in chairs and leaning toward each other. The atmosphere looks quite different from their last meeting in the Oval Office that ended with Zelenskyy's abrupt departure from the White House and the temporary freezing of all USA. And during their last face-to-face meeting, Trump had told Zelenskyy, you don't have the cards and that he was not winning against Russia.

He blamed Ukraine for starting the war and has accused Zelensky multiple times for being an obstacle to peace negotiations.

But this time after the meeting, Trump said Zelensky is calmer and he said he thinks Zelensky wants to make a deal. And Trump also posted on social media that he questioned Putin's willingness to end the war. And that came after Moscow's strikes on Kiev earlier. He urged Putin to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal to end the fighting and suggested this could be achieved within two weeks.

So I feel he's kind of in a slightly different tone this time. But also, he said he thinks Zelensky is willing to give up Crimea to Russia as part of the peace deal. And Zelensky has repeatedly rejected this idea in the past. So I believe this will continue to be a sticking point in their negotiations moving ahead. Before this meeting, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Putin at the Kremlin. How much

do we know about those talks? Yes, Steve Witkopf spent three hours meeting with Putin at the Kremlin on Friday. And the Russian side said the talks were constructive and very useful. And they say the discussion helped

bring U.S. and Russian position closer, not just on Ukraine, but also on the broader international issues as well. And after that meeting, Trump said Russia and Ukraine were very close to a deal, while the Kremlin said Putin had confirmed to Vytautas Russia's readiness to enter into direct talks with Ukraine without preconditions.

And according to reports, Vitkov presented a version of a peace proposal that would involve major concessions to Russia, including U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, lifting certain sanctions, and halting Ukraine's path to NATO membership. However, Ukrainian and European allies have pushed back strongly against those terms, and it's said that the Ukrainian and European version of the peace proposal wants a ceasefire first,

followed by discussions about territory, with Kyiv receiving defense guarantees from its allies along the lines of those found in NATO's Article 5. So I think while the recent talks suggest the Trump administration is trying to speed up the peace process, they also highlight the growing gap between what Washington might be willing to accept and what Ukraine considers acceptable.

But Trump says he wants a peace deal in two weeks or less. How realistic is that timeline based on what we know about the negotiations?

Well, I think that seems highly unrealistic given where things stand right now. And a major sticking point, as we mentioned just now, is the territorial issue. Ukraine has made it clear it won't agree to any deal that involves major territorial concessions. So that's sort of a red line for Zelensky and his government. And the European allies would also be unlikely to support such a move.

And it's clear that these two versions, one from Donald Trump's camp and one from the Europeans, are miles apart. And this divergence could be a significant challenge to any quick resolution. And another complicating factor is that despite Trump's position, optimism,

The two sides have not engaged in direct talks since the early days of the war. And we know that any meaningful negotiation would require substantial dialogue between Ukraine and Russia, which could take time to set up, given the sensitive nature of the issues at hand. And moreover, Donald Trump's

frustration have become more apparent. He's reportedly expressed concerns that the negotiations are stalling, which is no surprise given the difficulty of bridging these opposing visions of what peace should look like. And the situation is further complicated by the ongoing military actions, such as Russian bombings of Ukrainian cities. So I think given all these factors, a peace deal in less than two weeks,

seems more of a political statement than a practical expectation. Rubio also said the U.S. is assessing whether to continue mediating if a deal isn't reached soon. Is that largely symbolic pressure, or is there a real possibility that the United States would step back from these talks?

I think there's a clear frustration on Trump's side with the slow pace of the peace negotiations. And this is especially important for Donald Trump because he campaigned on a promise to end the war in just one day. And his pledge is obviously under scrutiny as negotiations drag. And because of this reason, I think Rubio's remarks is largely a symbolic pressure aimed at pushing both sides to reach a deal more quickly. And

I think it's difficult to imagine the US fully stepping back from these talks because of course there's certainly a desire within some parts of the US political establishment to focus more on domestic issues and potentially de-escalate involvement.

The geopolitical stakes of this war are simply too high for the U.S. to entirely walk away. So I think it is unlikely that the U.S. would completely step away from these talks. One last question, because Trump also expressed doubts about Putin's willingness to end the war, citing new Russian missile strikes on Kiev. What do you make of Russia's position on a peaceful deal today?

Well, it seems that Russia is sending out mixed signals here. On the one hand, Putin said he is open to direct talks with Ukraine without preconditions. And the latest update is that he just announced a three-day truce from midnight May the 8th. So I mean, this kind of showed his willingness to negotiate. But on the other hand, Russia has continued military actions. The

The Kremlin insists it is targeting military infrastructure, not civilians. But Ukrainian officials argue these attacks show Russia's disinterest in halting the war. So I feel that Russia may be signaling strength to pressure Ukraine into some sort of concessions.

And if you look at the Ukrainian side, it is also pushing for more weapons from the West, which suggests that Kyiv is also preparing for a prolonged fight if the talks falter. So there seems to be a lack of trust on both sides, which could further complicate the negotiations.

Thanks, Zhao Ying, for your insights and time. Coming up, Canada is set to vote in an election overshadowed by Washington's terror policies and annexation threats. This is Road Today. We'll be back.

Hello, I am Dr. Digby James Wren, a political analyst and international relations scholar specializing in China area studies. World Today offers unmatched in-depth perspectives on China's politics, economics, business, technology and society. World Today's team of reporters and contributors provides valuable information from all of the world's major economies. I hope you can join me on World Today for the very best insights and news from China, on China, and help to build a better understanding of China's role in the world today.

Welcome back to Road Today. As Canadians headed to polls on Monday, they face a choice that will shape the country's future. Will they extend the Liberal Party's rule or will they hand over the reins to the Conservative Party? The decision will come down to either Prime Minister Mark Carney or opposition leader Pierre-Paul Yves.

Looming over this election is the backdrop of rising tensions with the United States, specifically President Trump's tariff policies and annexation threats. They've cast a shadow over trade relations between the two countries. Both Carney and Poliev have said if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations on a free trade deal between Canada and the United States in a bid to end the uncertainty hurting both economies.

to help us break down what's at stake for Canada in this pivotal election. We're joined by Joseph Siracusa, Professor of Global Futures with Curtin University. Thanks for joining us, Professor. My pleasure.

Professor, let's start with the election itself. This federal election in Canada is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested in recent memory, with Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party holding a narrow lead over Conservative leader Pierre Pelliev. The race is intensifying as the new Democratic Party, along with smaller parties, look to make significant gains. So to

To begin with, could you share your overall impressions of those major candidates in this election? Well, I mean, the major candidates, of course, are Mark Carney, who is leader of the Liberal Party, successor to Justin Trudeau. And then we have the leader of the Conservative or the Tory party, Pierre Poliviev. And then we have the leader of the New Democratic Party, which is a left-leaning party, a

led by Sikh leader Jagmeet Singh. And then we have Bloc Quebecois, which is led by Yves-Francois Blanchet. Incidentally, the election doesn't have much support outside of Quebec. It's just a Quebec-run thing. But it's a balance of power, and if the election is close, that is, if

It's an overwhelming majority. There's going to be a minority government, which will have to turn to the New Democratic Party or a Bloc Québécois to form a party.

some kind of ruling party. Now, every election in Canada is important. This one's especially important. The Liberals have been in charge for 10 years, and a number of things have happened there through no fault of their own, and maybe some policies of their own. There's been a lot of scandal there. But there's the issue of affordability and the crime and the economy.

and drugs. And then all of a sudden, Donald Trump comes along and he threatens and menaces Canada. He says with rhetoric that he'd like to annex the place, which is ridiculous. There are 42 million Canadians there, 90% of whom live within 100 miles of the American border. They're not about to be annexed by anybody, as a matter of fact. So the election has got this kind of supercharged

economic nationalism to it. Who's going to stand up to Trump? Right now, the Liberal Party, which was dead in the water about two months ago, has come back to life with a leader who only got a seat

Sort of like yesterday, because he's a technician. This is Mark Carney, who was a member and leader of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada. And he is a globalist and he is a negotiator. And so he's the expert. He could probably take on Trump in a very technical way. Polyev, of course, who...

imitated or mimicked a number of things that Trump was doing, now has to put some distance between him and MAGA, because he was sort of the MAGA of Canada, though every country wants to be great again. And so we got this economic mix, we got this cost of living crisis in Canada, and we got a lot of people who are very anxious. Now, the Americans,

I'm going to be marching over that border. The Canadians are very angry about Trump's policies. And as you may or may not know, in the polls that were taken yesterday in New York and a number of places, a lot of Americans are very angry about Trump's policies vis-a-vis Canada, too. So the tariffs haven't worked very well.

The outcome of the election is uncertain, but voters' priorities are quite clear. They are heavily influenced by key issues such as rising living costs, housing affordability, and climate action. How do you interpret these voters' concerns, and what do they review about the broader mood of this electorate? I don't know so much about Europe or certain parts of Asia, but in North America,

The economic, the home economic issue is always the leading one. It's the pocketbook. You know, can you afford to put groceries in your cart? Can you afford petrol or gasoline for your car? That kind of thing. This is just the ability to live a life, you know, to buy.

Young people want to buy a home. It's a dream now out of reach, out of reach also in Canada and America, a number of other places for the same reasons. And inflation has got this problem also with this. So it's about the cost of living. It's about what they call the hip pocket or the personal economic factors. Now, there are big issues here, of course.

You know, life and death and domestic or foreign policy issues. But at the end of the day, the North American voter, Canadian and American, tends to vote with their pocketbook. Earlier, we talked about the significance of the U.S. factor in shaping voters' behavior. So in your opinion, could it be a decisive influence at the polls?

Absolutely. I mean, as I say, the Liberal Party was dead in the water a couple months ago. And because of the nationalist pushback in Canada, and their own retaliatory tariffs, the Canadians have, the party got a new lease on life. I mean, Justin Trudeau, as I say, was

Dead in the water, I think there were 20 percentage points behind the Conservative Party. So the Trump tariff war against Canada, which is going on right now, and of course, the tariff war began when there was actually a trade policy or trade agreement in place. So a number of Canadians thought they were ambushed there. They don't know what Trump wants to do. And to tell you the truth, I don't think Trump knows what he wants to do with Canada, except

There's a great deal of trade between Canada and the United States. 80% of all exports from Canada wind up in the United States. And it's a great influencer in terms of car parts and lumber and energy and things like that. It has a major impact.

So when Trump threatens Canada, a good neighbor, as well as with Mexico, he's really creating a lot of problems in his own neighborhood. And the Canadians really don't know what to do except to regroup, to push back and to negotiate.

And that is why the Liberal Party will be poised to win. Now, I could be dead wrong about this, but all the polls show the Liberals up four or five percent. Carney is the ideal negotiator to deal with Trump. He's a very cool economist and dealing with sort of those crazy ideas coming out of Washington. So maybe he can talk some common sense. But I think Canadians who are very staid type, they're very conservative.

No matter what they call them. I think they would have a lot of confidence in someone like Kearney, who's had major positions on the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada.

Many have suggested that strengthening multilateral trade ties would be a way to counterbalance U.S. oppression. During this election campaign, how have the candidates outlined their visions for trade relations with other regions, especially Asia and Europe? Are there notable differences in their approaches?

Yeah, this is a standard approach when someone's leveling these kinds of tariffs against you. You do two things. You fight back, and then you look for new trading partners. So they're looking all over the place to find ways to sell what they make and what they do.

I think all the parties are looking in that direction. But in a sense, it's a smaller country. I mean, it's still big at 42 million, but they're all looking at the same policy. You know, they all know what the problem is, and they've all identified the problem.

And, you know, how are they going to get there? So the Conservative Party wants to unleash energy. They want to cut down trees, open oil wells and that kind of thing. The Liberal Party, which tends to be more green or green type energy, though it's not the Green Party itself, which I should have mentioned, which has just got about 12 or 13 people

The Liberal Party, particularly Kearney, tends to be looking for investments, private investments that genuflect in the direction of Congress.

clean air and climate change and that kind of thing. So they're both going to step on different kinds of brakes and accelerators, but they're both looking to create new markets somewhere and in a shorter period of time as possible and to engage the United States as soon as possible in multilateral negotiations.

Thanks, Professor. I think foreign policy hasn't dominated a Canadian election this much since 1988. Whichever candidate emerges as prime minister for sure will face a litany of challenges, especially from their neighbor to the south. We'll definitely keep a close eye on how this unfolds. That was Joseph Siracusa, professor of global futures with Curtin University.

Turning to developments in the South China Sea, a spokesperson for China's Coast Guard has criticized the Philippines for violation of Chinese sovereignty, urging it to immediately halt infringement and provocation. The Coast Guard says six Filipino nationals illegally landed on the Tien Sien Kiao part of China's Nansha Qundao or Nansha Islands.

Officials reaffirmed China's sovereignty over the islands and surrounding waters, saying the Philippines breached the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, a key agreement aimed at maintaining peace and stability. To discuss the broader implication of this, let's have Professor Wang Zhengxu from the School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University.

professors a spokesperson for the china coast guard stated that china has indisputable sovereignty over the nanxia chundal or nansha islands including tianjiao and their surrounding waters from the perspective of international law and historical evidence could

Could you please help us understand the main legal and historical grounds for China's sovereignty over Tie Xianjiao? Well, China's sovereignty over Tie Xianjiao, which is part of the Nansha Qindao in the Chinese terminology, this is firmly grounded in historical evidence and international law. Historically,

Chinese records, as early as the Han Dynasty, Chinese documents have shown the discovery, naming and use of these features. In terms of contemporary period, well actually by the time when the European colonial powers are in this region, they recognize this as Chinese territories.

And 1945 was the post-World War II beginning of China's assertive sovereignty. You can say the modern contemporary sovereignty over these features. And actually by that time, what is known as the Philippines, the Republic of the Philippines, didn't even exist. So the sovereignty rights of these features to China, that's indisputable.

We've seen that recently the Philippines have carried out multiple illegal activities in and around Chinese territory, including Tie Xian Jiao. How do you interpret the deeper reasons behind these repeated provocations? Well, these activities by the Philippine power, they came out of both domestic and external factors of the country.

Domestically, the current government, the Marcos administration of the Philippines is facing very heavy political pressures in terms of its many policies. So it is using its nationalistic activities to rally public support at home. Externally, the Philippines is emboldened by its military relations with the United States. And this is part of the United States' global

and regional effort to counter China's regional influence to undermine China's peaceful environment. So it is not surprising that in recent months, the Filipinos positions or activities regarding this South China Sea features are quite visible.

In response to this illegal landing by the Philippine side, China Coast Guard officers boarded Tishanjiao to verify and handle the situation according to law. What signals does this prompt response send regarding China's approach to safeguarding its sovereignty? The China Coast Guard's very prompt boarding of the Tishanjiao

in April this year was to inspect and adjust the illegal Filipino lending. And in that sense, the signal that one China is very committed to defend its sovereignty

And secondly, it is also a very measured, very restrained response that demonstrates China's effective control over its territory, but also to reinforce China's historical and legal rights. Meanwhile, when they were on the island, on the feature, they were very responsible. They even were conducting environmental protecting activities.

So all this is meant to say that China is defending its territory, defending its sovereignty, but it's also willing to de-escalate the tension and try to reach out to the Philippines to do negotiations to de-escalate tension and to maintain regional stability.

Looking at the bigger picture, what risks do these provocations by the Philippines pose to the overall peace and stability of the South China Sea region today? These activities are highly destabilizing, is provocative, is destabilizing. So they pose very big risks to the region's peace and stability. They will increase escalate tensions and they will escalate

increase the likelihood of miscalculations or clashes. So that will be very dangerous. And in this context, these things are highly undermining regional cooperation frameworks like the China ASEAN Code of Conducts,

And Malina, I think it is very unwise to align with the United States in terms of military support, including some things they are recently doing, joint patrols, internationalizing the disputes. That has a very, very bad implication by joining external powers into regional issues.

Then building on that, it's clear that the Philippines' repeated provocations have seriously impacted China-Philippines relations. Under the current circumstances, how do you think China-Philippines relations might evolve, especially considering the role of the United States in this situation? Well, I think one is the Philippines is making misjudgment that because the United States

is taking up China as its main challenge, that the United States is putting a lot of pressure on China in terms of global economic development, trade and so on. So the Philippines feel that there might be some opportunities for itself to benefit from a big tension vis-à-vis China. And I think that's a very unwise judgment.

If that is not changing, things will remain highly unstable. But I think opportunities are still there that if the Philippines realize is to realize that the peace and prosperity of the region depend on good relation with China, with other ASEAN countries. So things will happen. Relations could improve.

If Malina realized its priority is not provoking China over these minor territories, but is to build better ties, to build economic ties. And China is the key trading partner for Philippines. China is the most important economic actors of the region. Within the ASEAN framework, there are opportunities for the two countries to

to talk and to find an acceptable solution to both sides.

That was Professor Wang Jingxu from the School of Public Administration at Zhejiang University. That's all the time for this edition of Road Today. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching Road Today. For further discussions, please follow us on X at CDTN Radio. I'm Ge'anna in Beijing. Thank you so much for listening. Bye for now. ♪

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