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cover of episode Panel: How resilient is China's economy in the face of trade war?

Panel: How resilient is China's economy in the face of trade war?

2025/5/23
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World Today
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J
John Gong
L
Li Lun
W
Warwick Powell
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李伦: 我认为中国四月份的经济数据表现强劲，特别是制造业和高科技产业呈现持续复苏的势头。出口方面，对东盟国家的出口大幅增长，弥补了对美国出口的下降。这表明中国的制造业基础稳固，出口市场正经历结构性转变，整体经济保持强劲增长。面对就业压力，劳动力成本降低可能为创新和创业创造良好环境，外部环境恶劣时，更具生产力的企业将生存下来，最终有利于供应商和消费者。 姜工: 我认为中国政府和企业已经从第一次贸易战中吸取教训，并为应对潜在的冲击做好了准备。中国四月份的出口数据出人意料地增长，显示出出口部门的韧性和中国产品在国际市场上的受欢迎程度。相比第一次贸易战，中国现在更有能力应对外部冲击。即使在最坏的情况下，中国对美国出口完全停止，对GDP的影响也是可以承受的。中美之间最终会达成某种协议，贸易额可能保持在2024年的70%-80%，对中国GDP的影响可能仅为0.15%-0.2%。 沃里克·鲍威尔: 我认为中国对美国市场的依赖程度已经降低，出口市场已经多元化。中国国内需求持续强劲增长，投资和消费需求年均增长率至少为5%。中国经济对出口的依赖程度远低于普遍认知，净出口仅占GDP的2%左右。中国无需对失去美国市场感到恐慌，可以通过内生增长、现有贸易关系以及财政政策来弥补损失。过去五年房地产行业的去杠杆化使中国经济结构更加稳固，能够更好地应对失去美国市场的影响。中国制造企业主要面向国内市场，对美国市场的依赖程度不高。

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Chapters
Despite a drop in exports to the US due to tariffs, China saw robust economic numbers in April, with continued recovery momentum in manufacturing and high-tech sectors. Exports to ASEAN countries surged, indicating a shift in export destinations.
  • Robust growth in China's manufacturing sector in April
  • Significant increase in exports to ASEAN countries
  • Shifting export focus from US to ASEAN and EU

Shownotes Transcript

Despite the moderation in the trade war between China and the US, great uncertainties remain. Amid the fallout from the trade conflict, Chinese authorities are implementing a raft of stimulus measures including interest rate cuts and liquidity injection to support the economy. Beijing says the Chinese economy is fully capable of coping with all kinds of challenges.

How resilient is China in the face of a trade war? Can China turn the challenges caused by the trade war into an economic opportunity? Host Ding Heng is joined by Warwick Powell, Senior Fellow at Taihe Institute and Adjunct Professor at Queensland University of Technology; Professor John Gong from University of International Business and Economics; Li Lun, Assistant Professor of Economics at Peking University.