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cover of episode Panel: How will Trump's tariffs reshape the US and global economies?

Panel: How will Trump's tariffs reshape the US and global economies?

2025/4/4
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World Today
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Josef Gregory Mahoney
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Lee Pei May
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Zhou Mi
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Josef Gregory Mahoney: 我认为特朗普的关税政策是权宜之计，反映出美国经济的衰退和对自身国际地位的担忧。他试图通过单边主义手段，利用美国军事实力、美元地位和SWIFT系统控制权来维护其影响力，但这是一种高风险的策略。美国经济面临诸多挑战，包括中产阶级萎缩、基础设施落后、应对全球金融危机和疫情不力等，这些问题导致了民粹主义的兴起。特朗普政府的政策是试图在自身改革的同时，迫使其他国家做出让步，但这可能加剧全球危机。 Lee Pei May: 特朗普声称美国是全球贸易体系的受害者，这一说法站不住脚。美国长期以来是自由贸易的倡导者，并通过WTO、IMF和世界银行等机构推动自由市场政策。美国的贸易逆差主要源于其产业链的国际化和生产成本的差异，而非被其他国家剥削。许多国家，例如中国，正是因为采纳了美国的自由贸易政策而实现了经济快速增长。特朗普政府的关税政策忽视了这些事实，并可能导致全球贸易体系的破坏。 Zhou Mi: 特朗普将贸易逆差归咎于其他国家的‘不公平行为’，这种说法忽略了国际合作和产业转移的长期历史背景。贸易逆差是全球价值链演变的自然结果，并非单方面被剥削的证据。美国在全球价值链中占据有利地位，并从产业转移中获益良多。特朗普政府的关税政策是基于一种狭隘的、不准确的视角，并可能对全球经济造成负面影响。

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Chapters
The panel discusses President Trump's new tariffs, framing them as a potential turning point in US global economic policy. The experts debate whether this is a justified response to unfair trade practices or a high-risk measure born out of desperation.
  • Trump declared a national economic emergency to justify new tariffs.
  • Several nations threatened retaliation.
  • The tariffs target about 60 countries.
  • The panelists discuss the potential for a global trade war.

Shownotes Transcript

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping new tariffs against trade partners.

The tariffs will apply to about 60 countries, marking the biggest shake-up of global trade norms since World War II.

Trump argued that punitive steps would bring industry and jobs back to the United States.

Can these tariffs really deliver the economic boost Trump promises, or will they end up hurting American businesses and consumers? Could this lead to a global trade war? And could this mark a turning point in the US role in the global economy?

Host Zhao Ying is joined by Zhou Mi, Senior Research Fellow with Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation; Lee Pei May, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the International Islamic University Malaysia; Josef Gregory Mahoney, Professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University.