Panel: Past as prologue — Why Xi’s Moscow visit matters in a shifting world
51:24 Share

Hello and welcome to Road Today, the panel discussion with me, Ge'anna, in Beijing.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on China and Russia to maintain strategic resolve and coordination as the roads enters what he described as a new period of turbulence and transformation. Meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of close communication to guide the future of China-Russia relations and contribute to global governance.

Meanwhile, in a joint statement signed by the two leaders, both countries criticized the U.S. and NATO policies in the Asia-Pacific region, warning they threaten regional stability.

China and Russia have pledged to enhance coordination and cooperation in response to what they call U.S. double containment policy. They also reiterated their shared commitment to defending historical truth, especially regarding World War II and preserving the post-war international order.

Adraud closely follows President Xi's state visit and his participation in the events commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory in the Great Patriotic War. Key questions emerge: What does this visit reveal about the evolving nature of China-Russia ties? And how have shared wartime experiences helped lay the emotional and strategic foundation for today's political trust?

To delve into these questions and explore the broader implications of this visit, we are joined by three distinguished guests. Dr. Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics at Chongqing University. Great to have you, Professor. Hi.

Dr. Joseph Mahoney, Professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. And Dr. Timo Kibimaki, Professor of International Relations at University of Bath. Welcome, Professor. Thank you very much.

Gentlemen, there is a lot to unpack today. But before we delve into President Xi Jinping's trip, I'd like to begin by discussing the cultural and value bonds between the two nations. Professor Yao, let me start with you. It seems that every generation of Chinese has a deeper understanding of Russian culture.

Classic songs like "Kachusha" and "Moscow Nights", as well as literatures by Tolstoy and Pushkin, for example, have influenced generations in China. And from Russian side, it was one of the first countries to study sinology and its sinological research

has been leading the road. So the list goes on. You have witnessed the development of China-Russia relations in the changing international landscape. Then when you think of Russia, what images, stories or feelings come to your mind? Yeah, I think there are so many commonalities and also common values between the two countries, Russia and also the former USSR and China.

Now the Chinese Communist Party was formulated and is very supported by Marxism and Leninism.

So I think the common political ground was very similar, although unfortunately, Russia is going into a slightly different trajectory. But I think the common foundation, the common belief of prosperity for all the people and also the culture rooted at the grassroots level, common value in the society,

There are still lots of similarities in the past and also the present Chinese society. I think the cultural influence, I mean, in the 1960s when I was born and when I grew up, we had lots of intellectuals who were sent to study in Russia, speaking Russian as their first foreign languages.

For example, the past president, General Secretary Jiang Zemin, he was educated in Russia and he can speak very fluent Russian. And in that generation, even up to the 1970s, there are lots of people who were educated there. They learned the science, they learned engineering technology, military technology, and coming back to China.

And if you go to Beijing, you see the People's Congress and also many buildings surrounding the Tiananmen Square. They were historical, very beautiful and gigantic buildings. They were also technologically supported by Russia and lots of companies such as the automobile company, the first auto work in Changchun.

They have lots of heritage of the Russian technology. So you asked me about my impression about all the image about Russia. I think the Russian people, they are a great nation and a great people. Especially they show the resilience and also the courage in the First World War and also in particular the Second World War.

I think without Russia, without the USSR entering into the Second World War, I don't know what would be the final outcome, not only for Europe itself, but also for China.

And without China's resilience against the Japanese, anti-Japanese war, we just don't know what will be the outcome for Asia today. So I think at this particular moment, I think we should pick up the commonality, the common value in the past, and we should move forward, look forward to see a better future. And at this particular junction,

I think the international politics, the international value chain changed over the last 80 years.

But the common point is that 18 years ago, when the Second World War was won by not only China, Russia, but also Britain and also the United States, this should be remembered. For one thing, we should remember the painful past. And for a second, we should remember that the painful past cannot be

It shouldn't be repeated in today's world. In today's world, there are still lots of difficulties. People may go back and forget the Second World War. I think it's wrong. So the visit for Xi Jinping to Moscow, this time actually he spent quite a few days and had a very lengthy discussion, different occasions, including drinking tea in a relaxed environment in the Kremlin office or Putin office.

So they have a very useful discussion. I think the general response within China is very positive. I think we see signs of international stability and also prosperity if we and Russia can work together as a good partner.

We'll discuss these aspects in more details later. Professor Mahoney, having lived in China for many years and being an expert in Marxist studies, how do you view the cultural bonding between the two countries and the resonance of their values?

Well, I'd like to begin with a strange little anecdote to sort of highlight sort of an unexpected cultural affinity. In 2011 in Washington, D.C., the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial was installed just off of the U.S. National Mall there in downtown Washington. And what's interesting about that memorial

memorial is that it features a large statue of Martin Luther King in softened white granite. Now that granite comes from China and the designer, the sculptor, is

is also Chinese. His name was Lei Yixin, and he won the international competition to sculpt that memorial to the dissatisfaction of some Americans who were troubled that a Chinese would get that honor. But it was a blind competition. But what's interesting about sculptor Lei is

And that memorial is that it was supported substantially by the Chinese government because the U.S. government is not allowed, interestingly enough, to pay for memorials, not even for someone, a global historical figure like Martin Luther King. But also because the style that Lei uses is the socialist realism style, which is a style that was imported into China during the Soviet influence, the USSR's influence,

on Chinese aesthetics. And indeed, Lei has sculpted many prominent figures in this style, including Mao Zedong. So it's an interesting thing to see this Soviet aesthetic in a Chinese hand representing one of the champions of peace in Washington. I would think that one of the things that we would point out about the cultural bond

between Russia and China. It is very, very old. It has had its ups and downs. One of the things that we've seen is that the influence has largely been positive. I've had Russian students who, and I haven't verified this, but Russian students who say that

Russia essentially learned its idea of modern governance from the Chinese state, which of course innovated the proto-modern government system, starting with the Qin dynasty thousands of years ago, building a professional bureaucracy, state exams, all these things that advanced during the Han and Tong dynasties.

But aside from this, I would concur with my colleague that we know that there have been a lot of cultural influences from Russia. But this is also, I think, consistent with the Chinese embrace of a lot of different cultural influences around the world. China has been trying to take and learn the best, especially in the modern period or the new China period, the best that it can from different countries. And in this case,

Russia's considerable accomplishments in art, literature, and music certainly stand as key achievements. I know that here in Shanghai at the Lushun Park,

We have the Literary Square, which features major writers from different literary traditions around the world. And it features several Russian writers. We know that Russian writers were very influential in the movement, the New Culture Movement in the 1916, 17, 18, and then the May 4th movement.

And certainly, as was mentioned, Russia played a very significant role in supporting the foundation of the Communist Party of China in Shanghai in 1921, and then supporting the United Front with the Kuomintang, helping China get on its feet when the PRC was established. All of those are very, very powerful contributions to Chinese development.

The one thing that I would say that's very, very interesting because it sort of marks something exceptional, and that is China learned a whole lot from Russia in terms of how Russia had developed Marxism-Leninism. And this was very, very constructive because the way Mao Zedong and the other leaders of the first generation were able to synthesize that and adapt it to meet China's needs provided some incredible innovations in that political way of thinking.

But one of the things that I think also bears mentioning is that because Russia had its revolution before, because they had the struggles of going it alone in the 1920s,

China was able to learn a lot from the Soviet mistakes. So in other words, the Soviet Union provided a historical example that China could learn both positive and negative lessons from so that it could avoid repeating some of those mistakes. And so I think it's important to note that China took a lot from Russia

or the Soviet Union, but it also was able to improve upon and adapt and avoid some of the shortcomings and pitfalls that the Soviet Union ultimately encountered. But in the end, China still remains strong and firm, and China was able to get its feet under itself through Soviet support, is now a very powerful strategic partner with contemporary Russia. So in other words, history has circled back and

one hand has served the other. Thanks for enriching us with so many historical stories. Professor Kivimaki, from your perspective, what are your impressions of China-Russia people-to-people ties? I think this is a very valuable interaction. And it's interesting in the sense that, I mean, on the one hand, it supports the two main joint

diplomatic objectives of Russia and China, namely the promotion of multipolar world order and also the opposition of any kind of hegemonistic tendencies. But I think what is interesting in the relationship between Russia and China

is the fact that culturally this kind of East Asian way of handling things is spreading to this relationship.

It is focused on things that unite rather than things that divide. Now this sounds kind of self-evident, but it's not. Much of Western cooperation is based on problem solving. The focus is on problems, not things that unite. That's important as well, because of course, resolving problems requires some attention to the problems, but sometimes exaggerating

the emphasis on problems may also poison relationships. And I think in the Russian and Chinese interaction, especially the involvement of people-to-people cooperation, it emphasizes the things that unite. And in a very East Asian way, Russia and China manages to sideline those issues where they don't agree.

I think the two countries have explored a model of bilateral relations better suited to their own development and focusing on the consensus they reached and also the programmatic approaches to problem solving. Professor Yao, building on this

Cultural Foundation, let's turn to the major event everyone has been focusing on this week, that is President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia. In an article published in Russia, President Xi mentioned how China and Russia supported each other during the World War II. As you said, these historical facts have deeply shaped the strong bond between the people of the two nations. But

How have they laid the trust-based foundation, especially political trust, for current bilateral cooperation regarding the timing of his visit? Yes, I think Xi Jinping's visit at the time by mentioning the past history is actually trying to remind people that these two nations actually have a very historical, glorious path of cooperation and supporting each other.

Now, after 80 years of international development, the international order is now very different. But luckily, I think, despite some minor world and many other small classes around the world,

But at this time, I think it's better to remember that the Second World War involved so many nations and had a subsequent devastating outcome for all the people, reducing many, many nations into ashes and also many lives were lost.

Nowadays, we should talk about more cooperation, about international order and peace. And people have to follow some sort of international peace order and

So the big nations like Russia, United States and China, these are probably the three most important countries in terms of not only just the population, but also the economy, as well as the military strength, especially the nuclear strength.

Now, this big nation, they should look at the higher level of cooperation rather than antagonizing each other and jeopardizing the global order, which has been more or less built based on the post-Second World War. And we should remember that the Second World War is a very painful past. We shouldn't go there and make more violence in the current situation.

This bidjik, I think, the value of this bidjik is to send a signal to the outside world, not only China but also Russia. They like peace. They like to remember the painful past and make the painful past as the future trajectory that we should walk at a peaceful path.

common prosperity and common peace to the international order. I think this relationship, the basic and also the future built up of the two big countries is very important to counteract some of the instability here and there in the world. Both sides emphasized

in their joint statement that China and Russia relations are at their highest level, but also point out that they are not directed against third parties and also not subject to any third party influence. With the US maintaining sanctions against Russia and simultaneously intensifying its trade conflict with the world, especially with China, how do you view this independent bilateral relationship model? And how do you view

the China-US-Russia triangle? Yeah, it raises a very important issue. You know, China-Russia relationship, although the joint agreement and also the discussion is officially declared to be independent and not involving the third party. I think the third party in this document, in the official languages, need to interpret it in a rather complicated way.

I think certainly the relationship between China and Russia is certainly for the China-Russia interests. There's no doubt. But why this relationship is so important at this particular moment in the first 20th century and also in the coming decades is partly because of the complicated international politics. The international geopolitics system is now highly disturbed

because of the so-called American first. And the American first, I have no problem with the American first.

But the problem is that under the disguise of American first and also under the disguise of the Lipsy-Purco-Talib, actually the United States is destroying the existing order which has been contributed by so many parties in the world, including the United States in the past.

For example, like the WTO, like the Climate Change Agreement, the Parliamentary Court, and also the common effort for the United Nations to reduce poverty and also to reduce conflict.

here and there. But some countries, particularly the United States, I have to mention, is the most dominant power at the moment. The power in terms of economic politics and also military strength and education science. I agree that there is no second country as strong as the United States.

But the United States has to remember why the United States is so strong. It's not because the United States has been working alone.

because the United States invests heavily in other countries. The United States benefits a great deal from the international division of labor and also globalization. And why it decided to have this decoupling and also the Protestantism, Unilateralism, is because the United States thinks

I am doing so I can benefit most and I don't care about the suffering or so the damage to any party in the developing world. And in this case, I think China, Russia is often regarded as the most competitors in the global economy and politics.

Russia has been isolated. Trade retaliation and also sabotage against Russia. Russia has been suffering a great deal. We have to go back to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It's highly unfortunate. It's actually, on the Chinese side, it has a very complicated feeling.

We don't like the war, certainly. But what is behind the war is also the United States' invisible hand behind the scenes. The United States not only used the Taliban, but also used regional conflict to benefit itself.

and expenses of life. For example, at this time, the life of the Russian soldiers and the life of the the Ukrainian people. But the behind force is the so-called propaganda in the West and also some sort of misleading conflict between Russia and Ukraine. You see, nowadays there are actually quite a lot of regional conflicts which are

are threatening global prosperity and threatening the common peace. At this time, I think the big nations, they have to have a very strong stance on how to go ahead with the global order. I think the stance on the Chinese side, I believe,

He is under the leadership of Xi Jinping. He wants to establish a balance, for example, the balance between the triangle, United States, Russia and China.

And hopefully the united force of Russia and China can create a legitimate force toward the instability force that has been imposed and generated by the so-called American first ideology at the moment.

Let's have a short break, gentlemen. Coming back, we'll continue our discussion on President Xi Jinping's trip to Russia. You've been listening to Road Today with me, Guiana, in Beijing. To revisit this episode or catch up on previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching Road Today. Stay with us.

Welcome back to Road Today, the panel discussion with me, Ge'anna, in Beijing. Now let's dive back into our discussion on China-Russia relations and the broader implication of President Xi Jinping's visit with Dr. Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics, Chongqing University, Dr. Joseph Mahoney, Professor of Politics, and Dr. Wang Shujie, Professor of Economics, Chongqing University.

and International Relations at East China Normal University, and Dr. Timo Kivimaki, professor of international relations at University of Bath. As I've read some analysis from Chinese experts of this three-country relationship, and one prevailing view is that the current China-Russia-US triangle's main characteristic is

is that China and Russia are strategic partners, forming different positions from that of the US in international politics. But both countries have not formed a structural framework targeting the US, and they both wish to cooperate with the United States rather than form an anti-US alliance.

And as I earlier mentioned, they positioned the China-Russia relations not directed against third parties, but some Western media question whether China and Russia can maintain such a non-aligned status under current circumstances, especially under the huge pressure from the United States. So, Professor Kivimaki, what's your take on that discussion?

I think it's very typical of the Chinese international relations thinking, even so that we often call this idea where instead of doing what we Westerners often do, instead of focusing on actors, they focus on relationships. Now, it is very typical that China and Russia are

both saying that they are not anti-American, developing their cooperation in order to be anti-something. They are relational. Now, I'll put this very simplistically. Typical American thinking in insecurity is that

you identify the bad guy and you assume that peace is not possible because the bad guy, so therefore you have to destroy the bad guy. As a result, you don't end up with good relationships, you don't end up with anything but war. This is not a good approach. Now, the reason why I was talking about

what Russia and China can build on in their relationship with the US. I wasn't focused on the bad things, but if we try to find something that we can build on, despite the fact that the US is currently disrespectful of the international law, etc., this part is better.

than the assumption that has been prevalent in US policy, where interventions have been justified by saying, we know what's best for Afghanistan. We know what's best for Iraq. We know what's best. I think it would be useful for Russia and China and for all other countries involved

Also, to try to emphasize that the UN, the international law, has to be strengthened and not weakened, that the climate change is a real threat and we all have to focus on that. We have to take this Chinese...

international relations approach which is focused on relationships which is trying to build on something that unites rather than being obsessed about what divides us and assumes that killing all the bad guys solves our problems. But

But Professor, the reality is we still see the U.S. encouraging other countries to adopt a hostile stance towards China and Russia and discrediting their cooperation. The statement also mentions that China and Russia will strengthen coordination to resolutely counter the U.S. double containment strategy against them. So how do you view the U.S. attempts to implement such double containment strategies?

on those two countries? And how should China and Russia respond to such a strategy? I do think that it's quite clear that what China and China are doing in terms of developing their own ability to avoid those unilateral sanctions and unilateral interventions, that's good also. It's just not the only thing. For example, building on Brexit

And bringing in countries like Indonesia, I mean, almost 300 million people who used to be extremely pro-US are now in the BRICS, which is clearly rejecting the idea that the world is ours.

only dominated by the US. I think all of that is good also because it does force the US to yield to some kind of an agreement on rules that bind all. It does prevent

the US to think that they are exceptional. So that side is also important. I'm just saying that think what is good that is no longer assuming hegemonically that the US knows what's best for other countries. I understand your point. We should focus more on cooperation and development rather than getting trapped in the US-led confrontation model, right?

Professor Mahoney, what's your take, and especially on the dual containment strategy against China? I think there are two points to emphasize here. The first is, you know, this term strategic partnership is a term that we use, I think, a little too loosely in English. China has many different categories of strategic partnership. But by the last count that I did, China has almost 90 strategic partnerships with countries around the world, not just China.

Russia, but also the UK, Australia and many, many others that I think that most people in the West would be surprised to know. In other words, China as a principle, as a basic principle,

seeks to build these types of positive, constructive relations with all other countries in the world and not just Russia. And so in this sense, it's asserting that the principle of building this closer relationship with Russia is not derived from this negative relationship.

world order that the US is bringing to everyone's door, but based on the principle of building forward through emphasizing common ground and reserving differences. That's the first point. The second point is, I think we have to be realistic, however, about the immediate context of President Xi's visit, which is, you know, we saw President Trump take power in his second term,

And by many reports, including reliable sources in Washington, one of his immediate objectives in trying to broker a peace in Ukraine was to create, if possible, a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. And he, you know, I think we can all recall the way he lambasted Zelensky when Zelensky came to the White House

The way he humiliated him, the way he questioned his legitimacy, saying that his democratic mandate had run out and so forth and so on. And one of the things that that Trump soon discovered was that he wasn't able to.

to break that relationship. There had been this narrative in the West for several years that China and Russia were unnatural allies, that they were unnatural strategic partners, and that the US foreign policy had been terribly misguided in so much as it had put together or pushed together these two countries that really should be competing with each other. That's the Western mindset.

And what they discovered is that Russia was in no mood to break its partnership with China. And indeed, my sources in Moscow tell me that that relationship is indeed stronger than ever. And Russia is prepared to

to bury once and for all its relationship with Europe and the United States, if that's what is required to move forward. So that's one context. The other context is that, you know, once it became clear that

that Russia wasn't going to move in the direction that the US wanted. Then we saw Trump making a deal with Zelenskyy. All of a sudden, Zelenskyy is empowered again and legitimate again. And now we're going to have a mineral deal. And this is a mineral deal so that the US can feed its war machine after China had decided to restrict exports of strategic minerals. So this is real politics.

And at the same time, we were expecting this month a considerable breakthrough in China-India relations, per my discussions with Indian diplomats and others in Beijing.

And what we saw instead was Vance moving as quickly as he could. Once it became clear that he couldn't separate Russia and China, he went into New Delhi to start trying to create a big trade deal with India to try to thwart this reconciliation agreement.

and there are quite a number of countries that would like to derail a reconciliation between india and china and the relations by the way have been improving for for a couple of years now with very constructive steps forward but we were anticipating a really big uh breakthrough and and if we find um russia

China and India, all working in a comprehensive strategic partnership together, not where they are all in central military alliance opposed to a third power, the US or whomever, but where they're on the same page and they're not undermining each other's interest.

then this would really be sort of the end of the road by many accounts for U.S. hegemony, which, by the way, continues because of the dollar and the role that the U.S. plays militarily around the world.

as well as Trump's ability to even launch a global trade war, even though he has to take considerable steps backward given the growing limits of American power. But what did we see in the last couple of weeks but a conflict spark between Pakistan and India? And there were many people in the West who were hopeful that that would drag the relationship, the burgeoning relationship between India

and China down and that this would benefit U.S. interest in this return to great power competition. It's not America first, it's great power competition and a zero sum game. So in this context, I think this is how we have to understand President Xi going to Moscow to publicly signal that, yes, that they're on the same page, that they're shoulder to shoulder,

And it's also, of course, interested in connecting the positive history of the past in terms of both countries resisting fascism and sometimes resisting fascism hand in hand and the effort today to resist the darker forces wherever they may originate.

Professor Yao, as Professor Mahoney mentioned that Trump administration is trying to shift its dual containment strategy to a "unite Russia to contain China" approach. How do you assess the feasibility of such a strategy? My answer is that it's unlikely to work. I think I agree many times that the United States

have the strongest hand in the world at the moment, not only militarily, but also financially, the US dollars and also international trade. But the US up to now has only a population of just over 300 million, similar to Indonesia, probably a little bit more Indonesia.

And the biggest population is actually in India and China, where it also has the greatest growth potential. And the compality between Russia and China is so obvious, because Russia has mineral oil that China needs, natural gas, and Chinese manufacturing is badly needed by Russia.

So the cementment between Sino-Russian relationship is certainly some significant force that the United States cannot ignore.

My colleagues mentioned about India. I think the relationship between India and China is also complicated by the relationship of China and Pakistan. So China is actually facing a difficult balance in terms of international politics.

not only between China, Russia and the United States, but also between China, Pakistan and India and also the rest of the world. China's relation with Ukraine is also pretty good in my mind. So China is trying to

balance the power not only in Asia but also in the international context for the benefit of peaceful development for China itself. Now, the biggest problem that we haven't talked about is that because of the fear

of the United States by the rise of China, because China is maybe sooner or later is going to be the number one largest economy in the world. And this is something that the United States found fairly uneasy about, because, you know, 40 years ago, per capita GDP of China is only a small fraction, something like 1%.

of the United States. Nowadays in terms of PPP, it's probably three to one. And in terms of the total power, I think China is the biggest manufacturer and agricultural producer in many respects.

So the United States does have a fairly difficult feeling, you know, how to maintain the hegemony, how to maintain the world dominance. They also, you know, try every possible way whether to slow down China's progress or whether to totally depress China into the so-called middle income trap.

And China is certainly not going to be, you know, hegemonized by the United States. Trying every possible method, including building up the relationship with Russia, building up the relationship and probably trying to help the peacemaking process.

in South Asia and also have a good relationship even with Japan, South Korea and also Asia.

So China is building up peacefully with lots of countries that there is going to be regional but multilateral relationship which is going to create a stability in the international business and also a military order. And this is precisely behind the Chinese development issue.

which is quite different from the United States approach, which is very aggressive. And the Chinese one is more inclusive. And there are two Western and Eastern values going to have very long periods of, first of all, cooperation and secondly, conflict. And China's long-term view is trying to change the conflict into cooperation.

And this is what China is trying to do. But in the end, if the United States continues to be fairly expansive and fairly aggressive, then the Chinese way is to unite other countries so that they can form a fairly strong solidarity. They can counteract what the United States is going to destroy the global order.

Gentlemen, let's shift to the last sector on China-Russia economic cooperation. It continues to deepen under the leadership of their heads of state. Trade between the two countries reached about 250 billion U.S. dollars last year despite external challenges. So, Professor Yao, as an economic expert, how do you think this visit will affect China-Russia trade in the near future?

The Sino-Russian bilateral trade has been increasing rather exponentially over the last six years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic and after the blockage of the Western power against Russia.

So the bilateral trade, as I just mentioned, there's a very strong degree of complementality. China is very good in manufacturing the goods which are needed by the Russian markets. And the Russians are rich in terms of gas and natural oil and other agricultural produce, of course.

These are desperately needed for China to feed not only the large population, but also to feed the industrial machine, which requires lots of energy, especially the fossil fuel.

from Russia. Of course, China is doing its best to improve, to build the capability of renewable energy, but the dependency on oil and natural gas is still very strong. So to segment the two relationships,

China, Russia, I think there will be a very good future, not only a good development path in the last few years, but also into the future. Not only for the complementarity of the national prosperity, but also for national security in terms of

energy security in terms of full security and also political military security. So the two sides, I think, is driven certainly not by just political relationship. It's more like business relationship because both sides have a great deal to offer.

And I think the bilateral trade last year, you just mentioned the figure of 244 billion plus, you know, bilateral trade is quite a significant number.

Because the US trade is less than 700 billion US dollars. So, the population is only more than one third of the United States. So, if you count it by the population size,

the intensity of bilateral trade between China and Russia is nearly equivalent to the intensity of trade between China and the United States. So by building also the degree of complemented mentality is stronger between China and Russia than between China and the United States. So I think the business relationship is highly significant.

Professor Kivimaki, what's your take? What aspects of China-Russia economic exchanges do you find most notable? I think it's important to realize that world politics is making Russia and China more compatible with each other. On the one hand, obviously, to go around U.S. unilateral sanctions that are not...

mandated by the UN Security Council. In order to go around them, Russia has tremendous benefit from trade with China, which is expanding also because of that there is Western sanctions against Russia. At the same time, China is benefiting partly because of the fact that they are now more available for China. So that side

there's a growing complementarity. So that's one side. The other thing is that it's quite clear. If we look at the power relationship between, I mean, the triangular power relationship between

US, Russia and China, we realized that when in 2019 - US started imposing sanctions against China - Russia was outside of this deteriorating relationship. As a result, Russia did benefit from that situation - compared to the US, for example.

Then in 2022, when the US imposed sanctions on Russia and strengthened sanctions on Russia, China was again outside. So basically this triangle works in a way that always

harms the US, takes turns between benefiting China and Russia. This can be seen if you look at the development of GDPs. It is quite clear that US unilateral sanctions -

against those two countries have been mostly harmful for the US itself. Of course more harmful for the EU, because they are designed to be less harmful for the US. But if you look at the triangle between -

China, Russia and the US, it's quite clear that the US is harming itself with its politically motivated sanctions. Professor Mahoney, do you share the same stance? What's your thoughts on the outlook of China-Russia trade relations? Well, I don't have much to add beyond what colleagues have added. I was thinking about the conversation and

And I think, Timo, I didn't hear the date of the first sanctions that were imposed against Russia, but that was back in 2014, by my recollection, because of the situation in Crimea. But in the case of – the point that I would like to raise is that we know that for several years President Putin and others in Russia

Moscow have argued that climate change wasn't a serious issue, that it might even benefit Russia in terms of opening up more access to the

the northern seas, but also thawing some of the frozen tundra and thereby make resources more available. But one of the things that I'm hearing from a number of Russians, including Russians who are coming to China, is that there is, in fact, a growing concern and recognition that Russia itself is very vulnerable to climate change. And I would

would suggest that China here, given its world leading role in green innovation and development, that despite the fact that Russia has an economy that's still very much dependent on fossil fuels,

that China can play a very constructive role in helping Russia mitigate some of the challenges associated with climate change. In China, this is not just green innovation and green development, but also large-scale infrastructure efforts to move water around, to deal with desertification and other issues. Really, only China has that sort of capacity

And so we might see this type of movement of services and capabilities into the Russian market as Russia has to deal with these effects more directly, having been somewhat insulated from them in recent years due to its position in the global north. I hope that's the case, and I also hope that we'll see China leading Russia into

sort of a global solidarity with regard to helping to mitigate climate change.

And all the various ills that come along with it. Indeed. Thanks, Professor Mahoney. And thanks to all of our panelists for such an insightful and thought-provoking discussion. Today's conversation shall lie not only on the historical depth of China-Russia relations, but also on the evolving dynamics shaping their partnership in today's complex global landscape.

That was Dr. Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics at Chongqing University, Dr. Joseph Mahoney, Professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University, and Dr. Kimo Kibimaki, Professor of International Relations at University of Bath in the UK. That's all for this edition of World Today. I'm your host, Ge'Anna. Thank you so much for joining us. Until next time, take care and stay informed.

so