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cover of episode Panel: Will China stabilize global trade?

Panel: Will China stabilize global trade?

2025/4/11
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World Today
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E
Einar Tangen
F
Frank Liu
P
Peter Chang
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Ding Heng: 就美国总统特朗普的关税政策对全球贸易的影响，以及中国在其中扮演的角色，我们展开讨论。 Peter Chang: 我认为，中国必须承担起维护自由贸易和全球化的更大责任，这不仅是为了中国自身利益，也是为了全球经济的稳定。当前的全球化是由美国主导的，但美国主导的全球化时代即将结束，中国将引领下一阶段的全球化。面对美国单边主义，其他国家可以采取两种策略：一是通过WTO改革，二是加强区域合作，例如RCEP和‘一带一路’倡议。‘一带一路’倡议不仅是基础设施建设，还包括数字、绿色和健康等领域，对全球南方国家意义重大。中国在RCEP中发挥了关键作用，未来还将继续帮助东盟国家加强内部贸易。 Frank Liu: 美国采取单边主义贸易政策，而中国则致力于多边主义，投资区域贸易集团（如RCEP）和‘一带一路’倡议，促进经济一体化。中国加入CPTPP，既有战略考量，也有经济因素，旨在参与塑造高标准贸易框架，并促进区域合作。‘一带一路’倡议正在改变传统的贸易模式，帮助发展中国家提升价值链，并提供替代性的贸易路线和市场。中国与欧盟在市场准入、补贴和产业政策方面存在分歧，但也存在合作的动力，共同维护多边贸易体系。 Einar Tangen: 面对美国退出全球化，世界其他国家有两个选择：一是让WTO多数成员投票要求美国退出WTO，改革WTO；二是进行区域化，例如RCEP和‘一带一路’倡议。特朗普的政策对中国来说是一个机会，因为它促使世界其他国家寻求更稳定的合作模式。中国必须抵抗美国的单边主义霸凌行为，维护自身利益。中国在重塑国际秩序中，将基于三个原则：国家安全、发展和主权尊重。关于‘一带一路’倡议是国际贸易破坏者的说法是错误的，西方国家提出的‘债务陷阱外交’论调是站不住脚的。中国长期支持全球化经济，其原因在于：支持中小企业发展，利用数字化技术促进全球贸易合作。中国可以通过加强与其他国家的合作，特别是通过WTO改革，来稳定全球供应链，应对特朗普关税的影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the impact of Donald Trump's trade policies on globalization, considering two potential paths: a reformed WTO excluding the US, or increased regionalization. The discussion considers the possibility of a future US administration re-engaging with global trade.
  • Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wan declared the end of rule-based globalization and free trade.
  • Two possible outcomes are a reformed WTO without the US or increased regionalization.
  • The panelists discuss the potential for a change in US policy under a future administration.

Shownotes Transcript

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and tariff threats are inflicting significant disruptions on international trade. Allianz Global Investors has warned that Trump’s ‘liberation day’ announcement will shave at least 1% off global economic output.

China is the central target of Trump’s tariff war. Faced with US tariffs, China is sending a message that it stands firm against bullying practices, and that it remains a strong supporter of globalization.

Amid turbulence caused by Trump’s trade war, to what extent can China maintain stability in global trade? Host Ding Heng is joined by Peter Chang, Former Deputy Director of University of Malaya’s Institute of China Studies and Research Associate of Malaysia-China Friendship Association; Frank Liu, Associate Professor at the Business School, University of Western Australia; Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow of Taihe Institute.