Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hello and welcome to World Today, I'm Zhao Ying. Coming up, President Xi has arrived in Kazakhstan to attend the second China-Central Asia summit. What to expect? Israel vows Iran will pay the price as both countries intensify cross-border strikes. How might the situation further escalate?
And as three seven leaders gather in Canada, is the divide within the alliance deepening for the more unilateral United States?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has arrived in Astana for the second China-Central Asia summit. The president will also hold separate meetings with the leaders of other Central Asian countries. Earlier, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the summit will further consolidate mutual trust, promote cooperation, advance a closer China-Central Asia community with a shared future.
For more, we are joined by Qu Qiang, fellow of the Belt and Road Research Center at Minzhu University of China. How has China's Central Asia cooperation evolved since the first summit in Xi'an two years ago? And what new opportunities has the mechanism created for regional development? I think many opportunities have been created. Well, ever since the 2024 summit,
I think China and five countries in Asia, actually their trade has been reaching about $100 billion. So this is probably more than 200 times when we first established our diplomatic relations. China, Kyrgyzstan, and also Uzbekistan, railway and all kinds of bilateral and multilateral port.
has those kind of major project has already been implemented. And also we've been seeing that China Euro Express Railway has been going through the mid Asia, Central Asia. And also we've been seeing that the Central Asia has played a very important part in this cross-continent railway. At least 80% of the mileage actually been crossing this Five Nations
in Central Asia. And also, I think all this kind of investment, especially the Belt and Road Initiative in those countries has been providing more than 80% of the jobs newly increased in those markets.
And also, lots of investment are coming into those regions, and also the spillover effect is very, very large. Not only this project itself, but also the local capitals or the third-party international capitals have been vitalized. And the whole region has been revived through all this kind of the cooperation.
We've been seeing that digital cooperation, energy cooperation, green industry cooperation, and all these things are happening. Cross-border trade, digital trade, and also the high-tech, you know, cooperation and manufacturing are actually forming a new momentum in the regional growth. Yeah, we know that trade between China and Central Asia reached nearly 95 billion US dollars last year. What key sectors are driving this growth?
Well, I think there are many of the key sectors very important for both sides. And number one, I think traditionally, energy cooperation is, of course, one of the most important projects that we're doing. Central Asian regions have very rich deposit for the oil and the gas, that's for sure. So that's the reason why China has been exporting, sorry, importing lots of the oil and natural gas from those regions. We've been building pipes
building all kinds of infrastructures and also not only buying the oil from the local regions and countries, but also it means a lot of the investment, including the infrastructures for the oil and gas, but also for transportation like highway, like bridges, like the tunnels. And all this has been supporting the local incomes. Well, a lot of people are saying, well, everybody needs the oil for sure. But please just remember one thing.
There isn't much of the economy in the whole world can actually afford and also need that kind of a large supply for the oil. Well, right now is really a demand side market. America has become a large oil producer for itself and the European Union.
has been uh incorporating with them uh the middle east and also right now i think uh china has become a very important you know market for the energies so that's for i think that's all the oil and gas producers will understand so
So I think also beyond this oil and infrastructures and also we've been looking at, you know, a newly growing emerging sectors between China and the Central Asia. Number one, I think is agriculture. A lot of people are saying the Central Asian has
have not a very favorable natural condition like they have very dry weather the water supply is not that much and also the raindrops and all the soil conditions are not good for large-scale agriculture industry but actually both sides and Central Asian and China's corporation are telling the world this is not
the obstacle for us if we can if we want to do it if we just pull our wisdoms and resources actually we can do it so china has been providing the central asia lots of the infrastructures technologies and know-hows for the agriculture industry especially for the dry land agriculture um
like the crops, like the fruits, like the nomad industry, like the livestock raising industry, and also food processing industry, and a chemical industry, fertilizers, for example. And all these has been expanding the capacity in the Central Asia and stabilize the local food supply and also forming this region as one of the very large production center for the food and agriculture industries
value-added products. So it's not only good for the local food security, but also, you know, local quality food, agricultural product has become a very important source for the international trade and increasing the local country's income. And also, we need to talk about manufacturing. Everybody knows China has a rather, you know, very strong competitiveness in the manufacturing industry.
Well, Central Asian nations, they have a rather weak foundation in this area. Well, they're good in the heavy industry, but when we're talking about modernized and high-tech manufacturings like the digital devices, like the house appliances,
the cars for example like the ev and also the high-tech mechanics and all these actually are not very strong for central asian nations but uh for them they have very large population and all those nations they have their own version of the modernization they have their own dream you know to grow their uh
living standard and the technology. So that's the part when China can help. So China is not only selling the product to those places, but more than that, we try to not only provide the fish, but also teach how to fishing. So that's the reason why we've been cooperating with them, you know, pass on the technology, building the capacity with them and, you know, co-invest with them. So the local nations get the urgent needed,
technologies and capacities in industry for themselves. And also talking about the modernized trade and more of the legal system to foster the trade-free zone and cross-border shipment of the cargoes, as well as the cross-border financial services. All this has been creating new jobs and new opportunities for Central Asia's growth.
So what are the key priorities of this year's summit? Like what issues will be discussed? Well, I think for this year, especially among the Astana summit, I think we were looking forward to explore more of a bilateral trade investment, transportation, energy, agriculture,
culture and all this will be still the most important pillar for our bilateral cooperation we have already set up a very good foundation for sure milestones have already been there but we need to build on the momentum and carry on with the torch to make sure all this you know priorities can be actually fully implemented and generate more of the positive
spell over effective and beyond that I think in the new topics I think you know high-tech like AI like the green development like digitalization and also the e-commerce internet and also like the data standard and all this will be also on the page for the discussions because right now more and more of the China Central Asian corporation happened on the digital platform or on our
through the internet and also be more and more AI-reliant. So I think how can we create this momentum, but also to make sure these forces can be used in a good way will also be very important. And also talking about tourism, for sure, because right now the whole region has been signing a new round of the visa arrangement, which means
The cross border of tourism, travel and culture and people to people exchange will become very, very important sectors for us to cooperate with each other. And also last but not least is how can we defend
our self together from the bad forces for example like the traditional security issues like the extremists like the drug and population trafficking and also how can we deal with those you know desertification to restore the ecology systems in this fragile uh natural conditions so i think all this will be covered during this year's summit
Well, how have the U.S. tariff hikes influenced the region's trade strategies? Do you think this is kind of accelerating a shift toward closer economic ties with China? Well, I think everybody knows that the tariff conflicts raised by America actually have been forming lots of influences. Well, bad influences towards the whole region. But also we're thinking...
Well, this can be a very negative impact, but also creating opportunities since in China when we're talking about crisis, we're always saying is the both sides of a coin, you know the good side and also the bad side. So I think this kind of policy from America actually will foster the original integration and trade and economy and also the financial services. China and Central Asian nations will form a more closer economic ties and
also because of the uh tariff is basically non-discriminative so which means it's not only you know targeting uh in those developed nations like china and europe but also are targeting like emerging market like the central asia so their costs are also are getting higher and higher so when they are more in the most urgent you know
you know important uh in a moment to try to develop their economy and now you're saying I have to give you some harder version of the trade and give you higher tax I don't think they want to really do it so uh China has one of the largest economy in the whole world we have very vast uh supply chain and very comprehensive industrial system and also we have one of the largest uh
market for the whole world among the whole world so I think Central Asian nations right now is for them is the right moment to take opportunity to work with China and utilize the supply chain technology as well as for the market demand to supply their own economy and also to mend up for their losses when they're trading towards America
Well, you know, some would view China's engagement in Central Asia as an attempt to expand its geopolitical influence. How would you respond to that perception? And at its core, what do you think China is aiming to achieve through its cooperation with the region? Well, China and the Central Asian mechanism actually provided a very important communication and coordination platform.
For China and the local nations to talk to each other and cooperate with each other in the regard of the original governance. And this is very important because when we're talking about the original governance, it means a lot of really detailed issues like the security,
like dealing with the terrorism, separation test, and also dealing with the local security, trade, and all kinds of issues. So we need know-how, we need technology, and more importantly, we need to work with each other. So I think what probably will be covered on this summit is that, for example, how can we deal with
you know, the cross-border, you know, criminal activities, for example, like the drug trafficking, weapon trafficking, the crime network, and et cetera. So, which means our border controls need to work with each other. Our data centers need to, you know, communicate
calibrate with each other on the data and also we need to work together to prevent the illegal immigration and across border crime and etc and also we know this area is always have very complicated background for ethnic group issues
religious issues and also sometimes we will have some argument on the territory issues. And meanwhile sometimes we'll be seeing a larger picture about like the natural conditions deterioration. They also will cause some human related issues. For example, desertification and also the shortage
of the water, for example, the shrinking of the Caspian Sea. And all these, you know, worsened the natural condition will force people to move and all this kind of the people's activities will create a new round of the conflict or even crimes. So I think this broader security and governance issues will be, you know, included in this framework during this summit for sure.
That is Qi Qian, fellow of the Belt and Road Research Center at Minzu University of China. This is World Today. We'll be back.
You're listening to World Today. I'm Zhao Ying. Iran and Israel are escalating strikes amid the rising death toll. Iranian missiles hit Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa on Monday as Tehran pressed on with retaliation for Israel's surprise attack on Iran's nuclear program and military leadership on Friday. Israel's attacks continued through the weekend, killing a number of Iran's top military commanders and nuclear scientists.
Iran has reportedly told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire while it is under Israeli attack. Joining us now in the studio is my colleague Ding Heng. Thanks for being here. Hello, Zhao Ying. Well, Israeli officials described Friday's strike as preemptive. How would you interpret that?
Well, the narrative that the Israeli side is promoting is that Israel learned a lesson from the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, that the Israeli side is not going to wait for its enemies to surprise the Israeli side once again.
Israel also claims that Iran had enough material for multiple nuclear weapons. So instead of being surprised by Iran, Israel decided to act preemptively and choose to surprise Iran. This is what the Israeli side is claiming. But in the meantime, and perhaps more importantly,
I think Israel has every reason to sabotage diplomacy between Washington and the Tehran. Washington and the Tehran, the two sides, had a plan to meet on Sunday, I mean on this past Sunday, for the sixth round of nuclear talks between the two sides, but that didn't happen because of Israel's attack and the subsequent developments.
The Israeli leadership has been holding this view for a long, long time that the only way to stop the Iranian side from developing a nuclear program or a nuclear weapon is by going to war with the Iranian side. And Israel has tried to sabotage any diplomacy between Washington and the Tehran for more than 20 years, actually. So...
One detail I have noticed is that Ali Shamkhani, which is a former Iranian defense minister and also in the meantime a close advisor to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, he was among those targeted by Israeli strikes, and at this point we don't know yet whether he is confirmed dead by
by Iran's media. So he is seen as a leading figure in terms of Tehran's negotiations with the Washington side over the past few months. This is a very important detail, which can shed light on Israel's bigger picture regarding why it's targeted Iranians at this point.
So what options do you think Iran has in its conflict against Israel? One thing we can keep in mind is that Iran is believed to have the largest missile program in the Middle East. We are talking about thousands of ballistic missiles available for this country with various ranges and speeds.
And at the current rate, if Iran wants to, it could likely carry on attacking the Israeli soil for several weeks, which would inflict significant damage on Israel.
I think it is true on one hand that Israel's people, Israel's overall population might be quite used to various attacks from nearby weaker armed groups based in the Gaza Strip, for example, or in southern Lebanon, or Yemen's Houthis, etc. But a direct attack from Iranian soil is not something
on the same scale, arguably. We saw Iran's Haji Qasem missile being used for the first time against Israel on Sunday. It was able to evade Israel's air defense, severely testing its ion-dome system. But
I guess at the end of the day, Iran has its own calculus. It is not reckless. I think Iran is going to avoid attacking U.S. bases or personnel in the Middle East. Iran does not want a direct fight with the United States or to give Washington any excuse to add its own offensive military capability, military might to the might of the Israels. So...
A joint US-Israeli attack will be the worst case scenario for the Iranian side because that would likely destroy the country's most well-protected nuclear sites. I think the Iranian government has made it quite clear that it will reciprocate if Israel stops the attacks and Tehran is willing to return to nuclear talks with the United States.
A pretty strong card that the Iranian side is holding at its hand is that whether it will close the Strait of Hormuz. Once that very important strait is closed, then the transit of millions of barrels of oil a day will be stopped immediately, and global oil prices will rise significantly above 100%.
Do you think the conflict between Israel and Iran could lead to a broader Middle East war?
I think the relevant fear is of course there. It's very palpable. This is why countries across the wider Middle Eastern region have condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran, calling for urgent de-escalation.
Their response here is exactly driven by a common concern that tit-for-tat retaliation will lead to a wider regional war, because we're already seeing some regional fallout from the conflict between Israel and Iran, such as...
The intercepted Iranian missiles, for example, falling in the countryside of southern part of Syria, schools closing in southern part of Lebanon, and Jordanian jets shooting down some drones and missiles, etc. We can see all these developments from regional news outlets.
Though many states in the Middle East, particularly in the Arab Gulf region, they don't get along well with Iran in general, but a
A full-fledged war between the Israeli side and the Iranian side is not really in their interest. I think this is the general consensus on the part of all these regional countries. Okay, then to what extent do you think the United States is willing to get involved in this situation?
Initially, we saw President Donald Trump claiming credit for the perceived success of Israel's operation against Iran, but only initially, because that initial response from Trump has given Iran this impression that the U.S. was involved in the deception prior to Israel's attack, with the Americans maintaining control
This very pretense that nuclear talks with the Iranian side were the go-ahead on Sunday, despite secretly knowing that Israel was going to attack. So, on one hand, Trump's initial rhetoric has eroded Tehran's trust in him, if there was any. But that's the way Trump's rhetorical style has been. It seems a stronger...
Or a clearer message we have heard from Washington is that there should be de-escalation between Israel and Iran. To say the least, President Trump does not want a war with Iran or another major war involving the United States in the Middle East.
Rather, he wants a clear deal, a clear nuclear deal with the Iranian sides. That's a part of his diplomatic effort. That's the bigger picture. So in order for Washington and Tehran to return to the negotiation table, then I guess the Trump administration will have to work hard to de-escalate and put an end to this conflict between Israel and Iran.
Okay, thank you, Jingheng. You're listening to World Today. We'll be back after a short break.
This is World Today. I'm Zhao Ying. Leaders of some of the world's wealthiest countries are gathering in the Canadian Rockies for this year's G7 summit. Canada chairs the G7 this year. It has promised a set of streamlined priorities focused around the global economy and security. But issues such as U.S. tariffs and the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine will feature heavily during the summit.
This is Donald Trump's second time in Canada as US President, the first being a discordant summit in Charlevoix in 2018. That visit was encapsulated by a photo showing world leaders confronting Trump, who remained seated with his arms crossed while others stood. This year, Canada has decided to abandon the annual practice of issuing a communique at the summit's conclusion.
For more, we are joined by Professor Shen Dingli from the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University. Thank you for joining us, Professor Shen. My pleasure. So what are the key priorities at this year's G7 summit and how has this escalating Israel-Iran conflict kind of shifted or overshadowed the original agenda? I think initially,
This year's G7 summit plans to focus on global trade, artificial intelligence, Russia-Ukraine war, etc. But as you have pointed out, now Israel-Iran conflict probably will become a major focus of this upcoming G7 summit.
So do you think the G7 countries can play a meaningful role in de-escalating tensions between Israel and Iran? Well, I think on the surface, none of the G7 wants to welcome such a conflict.
but also in the bottom of their heart. None of them wants to see that Iran may be approaching to the day when it would actually acquire nuclear weapons. But they also want to make sure that Iran would abandon its nuclear ambition through its attack with Washington.
But Israel has intervened to disrupt such a talk by bombing Tehran at this time. So there must be a court to welcome such a radical effort to denuclearize Iran's nuclear weapon dream.
and also hoping to prevent the further escalation that may spill out of the region. Well, given the chaos of the 2018 Charlevoix summit, how does Donald Trump's return to the G7 stage compare this time? And what are leaders doing to avoid another diplomatic rupture?
Donald Trump has had some change, but also he has not changed a lot. For instance, he is still carrying his trademark to be a person which does not care about international institutions. He cares about making deals through talking to other countries one-on-one.
and he thinks he is a master in commanding such an art. Therefore, I think the host country, Canada, will be very careful
in not making Trump angry by pushing the envelope of imposing some institutionalized approach upon Trump in order to prevent him from leaving the summit prematurely. But I would also say Trump has had some change.
So I think at this time, he may be a little more mature, quote unquote, and he may be willing to talk to other G7 members regarding a G7 approach to Israel and Iranian ongoing fight.
So we will see Trump is no longer the old Trump, but he is still largely the same Trump. Well, tell us what exactly has changed? Why do you think he's more mature this time? And how do you think his, you know, the unilateral approach by the Trump administration to trade and foreign policy is kind of reshaping the G7's ability to function as a unified bloc?
One, he has found the right person who has loyalty to his mega agenda. Second, he shows some flexibility. For instance, he would have some friendly phone call with Canadian current prime minister.
and he is no longer pushing the envelope of making Canada as America's 51st state. And he is not pushing the agenda of sending the U.S. armed force to Panama in order to control Panama Canal. So he has
He is pushing some idea, but he is not imposing to implement his idea. And he has created the idea of imposing the so-called reciprocal tariff. But he would have opposed for 90 days with all of the other countries, including China. So he is no longer that old Trump.
But he is still resolute in pushing his agenda that Americans should export more, the world should work with the U.S. with a more fair manner, quote-unquote. So this is a Trump which seems to have some difference with that one eight years ago.
Okay, so we know that Canada has decided to abandon a final communique at this year's summit. So does this signal the decline of the consensus-based diplomacy in favor of a more fragmented coalition? Canada wants to make this summit a success. It does not want Trump to leave the conference before it would end.
It wants to have some sense, some impression of unity. So it is not interested in pushing its agenda in making a consensus that Trump would dislike. So Canada will be very careful in catering Trump's temperament. I think other countries, they are prepared. Probably there will be no consensus.
So we should not create a communique to pretend to have a consensus. So then Trump might be happy and Trump might be more willing to work with other countries to create some statement, or at least a cheers statement. So I think they are careful to look at the face of Trump.
And if Trump wants to get the support of these G7 partners, he would be, I think, be more polite than he used to be toward his partners. Okay, thank you, Professor Shen Dingli from the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University. This is World Today. Stay with us.
You're listening to World Today. I'm Zhao Ying. China's economy registered steady growth in May, with production and demand rising steadily. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial enterprises' value-added output grew 5.8% annually. There were relatively strong gains, particularly in equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors.
Meanwhile, retail sales rebounded significantly in May. Sales of consumer goods rose 6.4%. Employment conditions remained stable and new growth drivers expanded rapidly.
For more on China's economic performance in May, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr. Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics at Chongqing University. So, Professor Yao Shujie, thank you very much for joining us. China's economy withstood the external pressures and maintained stable growth in May. So what factors contributed to this economic resilience and how sustainable is it, do you think?
Yeah, China's economy is picking up over the year from the beginning of the first month of the year. It seems like the manufacturing sector, the service industry and also consumption is gearing toward a full momentum up to now. Partly because of the COVID-19 pandemic, tailing effect is diminishing, so the economy is
doing a full recovery in the process. And also government policies over the last few years, particularly early this year, the central bank, the state council and different departments and the local government, they have been rolling out many supporting policies
to support a sustained recovery of the economy. So all these policies have been starting to have a real effect on the manufacturing and service industries, in particular the subsidy policy for consumption, which helps the consumer consumption and sales in the shops. These are the very
complicated set of policies adding together. And another factor is that China has been able to digest the external shock
particularly from Donald Trump's second term, the strong suppression of Chinese exports to the United States. But China is able to diversify the export to other destinations, such as the European Union, ASEAN, and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.
And the other factor is that the Chinese manufacturing industry is doing very well in terms of transformation and technological upgrading. So domestic products are getting more and more acceptable and also welcomed by the domestic consumers.
as well as by the foreign consumers, which have been the critical factors of driving China's steady growth in terms of export. And we are seeing China's industrial output grew by 5.8% in May with
big contributions from the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, the output of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles all surged. So what does this say about China's economy?
Yeah, there are two points here we can emphasise. The first point is that the Chinese manufacturing sectors - has shown a fairly strong resilience against the current external capacity. The second is that the Chinese industry is doing fairly well - in terms of upgrading from the low-medium level manufacturing - to high-medium level manufacturing.
As you just mentioned, some of the export of the key industrial products like 3D equipment and also robotic products as well as the new energy vehicles.
These are very typical emerging industrial and industrial products. China is certainly the world front runner in terms of producing this equipment and high-end products in the world. As I said, not only it is very welcome at the domestic markets as we can see the
booming sales of this cancer product in China itself, but also the very strong export to the foreign markets. And these are the two typical strengths of the Chinese industry.
And on the domestic consumption front, the market sales rebounded significantly last month and the retail sales jumped by 6.4%. So how do you see the growth potential of the country's consumption sector? And China has been implementing stronger and more targeted measures to boost consumption. So how effective have these efforts been?
Again, there are a number of factors contributing to the strong performance of consumption in the domestic markets. Firstly, I think because of the employment level is fairly steady, that means people still have fairly stable income. And if they have income, they will be able to consume.
Secondly, the government policy, there are two effects. The first effect is that the interest rate is relatively lower, so people tend to probably save less and spend more, or probably borrow more and buy more in terms of the cost calculation, because the interest rate is now
fairly low for many years. And secondly, I think the government policy, there is a so-called consumption subsidies. If you buy new vehicles, if you buy television and other domestic appliances, the government, particularly the local government, have some sort of support policy.
by either reducing the tax level or by directly giving the so-called cash subsidies. So they stimulate the consumption desire. Now, manufacturers also become very competitive because many of the manufacturers are quite desperate to sell their product to gain market share.
So high competition in the domestic market actually reduced the prices of all the consumer goods across the country. And also the foreign trade in goods expanded by 2.7% in May. So with the US tariff policy and the uncertainties, how are Chinese enterprises, especially the export-oriented one, adjust their strategies to mitigate the impact on exports?
Firstly, I think the government has been prepared very well for many years about this potential shock created by the U.S. government to rapidly increase the tariff against the Chinese export to the U.S. market.
In response to this, I think the most important step is to diversify China's export to all other markets outside the United States. For the country I just mentioned, European Union, ASEAN, and also the Bail and Law countries.
And also diversify to domestic consumption as you see the domestic sales, domestic consumption jumped by 6.4%. This particularly because of the price reduction effect because of the trade diversification.
The other strategy is to continuously improve China's export product quality and technological contents. So China is upgrading the export mix toward the higher end of manufacturing goods. And this turned out to be very effective.
If you look at the export figures from January to May, over the last five months in January and February, the export was actually showing a slight negative growth. But from March, April to May, the export volume seems to increase steadily month by month.
So 2.7% is probably the highest over the last five months. I hope that the rest of the year, this kind of performance will continue because the manufacturing sector in China, I think, is getting ever more competitive due to the external shock, due to the pressure from the United States.
So to sum up, I think it's diversification and also technological upgrading to higher quality and also the balance between export and domestic consumption. That is Dr. Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics at Chongqing University, speaking with my colleague Zhao Yang. This is World Today. Stay with us.
You're listening to World Today. I'm Zhao Ying. China is showcasing some of its top aviation products at the Paris Air Show. The Aviation Industry Corporation of China is presenting cutting-edge aviation technologies, including the J-20, the J-35A, and J-10CE fighter jets.
China's rapid progress in unmanned aerial vehicles is also on display. In addition, China is highlighting its achievements in emergency response and civilian innovation with a focus on services that support public welfare and the development of the low-altitude economy.
For more, we are joined by Zhang Fan, Associate Professor of Astronomy, Department of Beijing Normal University. Professor Zhang, thanks for joining us. Hello. So what message do you think China is sending by showcasing its cutting-edge aviation technologies, including the fighter jets and advanced drones at this global stage?
Right, I think this is mostly a commercial sort of activity because the Paris Airshow is really a sales pitch
sort of venue for the French defense and aerospace industry. France has always been very conscientious about developing its aerospace capabilities. They have, you know, Airbus is largely based there. You also have Dassault, the defense contractor, you have the engine maker, Saffron, and also the European sort of rocket, Ariane,
series of rockets, has a lot of French parts. So they need this sort of venue to showcase them. And the fact that China is going shows that China is looking at a new market sector beyond its traditional partners in the defense sector.
The customer that goes to these shows tends to be the ones that are rich, looking for sophisticated, traditionally Western systems, but not necessarily looking at American systems, because the American systems are politically intertwined and they tend to be really expensive. You're really paying for American protection rather than just the systems.
But when you go to the European systems, you tend to be just looking for the product. And China is trying, I think, is trying to break into that market. And it's not even the airplanes, it's just mostly the models going. They're not the important things. The important things are China is showcasing whole systems.
holistic solutions for air defense, including the early warning, including command and control the missiles and everything. And this is one of the advantages that China has. Because the very fact that European countries, there are so many of them, and the fact that the American systems have inserted themselves into the systems here and there, means the European solutions tends to be fragmented. While China can
present a one package for all your needs sort of approach. And this is what the Chinese company is really trying to showcase and demonstrate at this airshow. Okay, and how competitive are Chinese products on such as the fighter jets like J 20 J 35 compared to their Western counterparts?
Right. In terms of the radar, the missiles and everything, it's always been quite good. In the past, the engines, it's a bit lagging. But now the Chinese engine development has really improved.
gone leaps and bounds. If you look at the last year's Zhuhai Airshow, J35 flew there and if you look at the engine performance, it's quite good. So I think the particular J20 and J35, they're on par with the best. And the fact that they're there in the sales pitch shows that maybe in the near future they'll
become possible to export them. And whenever that happens, it really indicates that they're not the most advanced fighters in China anymore. You never sell the best you have. So the sixth generation, next generation planes currently under test flight, their performance would likely be quite, be much, much better. And the progress must have been really good for people to,
for it to be meaningful to put these things out there in these kind of sales markets at all. Okay, and beyond military aircraft, China is also presenting civil aviation technologies for rescue, weather support, and low-altitude tourism. How does this align with China's broader push to develop the low-altitude economy?
It's something that China has been looking at quite closely. There is guidance, support from various sectors in the government. So the whole point is, you know, the ground is only two dimensional. You can only fit so many vehicles on it. The density is low and the speed is low. But if you go to
go in the air, it's three dimensional and things travel much faster. So transportation and logistics become much more efficient if you use that.
In this particular air show, China is presenting helicopters, presenting all sorts of drones. And also, particularly interesting is an amphibious aircraft that can land on water, suck up a lot of water, take off from water again, and then go off to fight forest fire. And given the climate change situation, given what happens in Australia and Canada right now in terms of burning forests,
putting even more sort of global warming gas into the atmosphere, - having a fleet of such aircraft would really be quite helpful. So China is offering solutions on this front in this show as well.
Yeah, but we know that this year's air show actually comes just days after the fatal crash of Air Indian flight. How do you feel that that incident has kind of changed the tone of this year's Paris air show, especially for Boeing? I mean, Paris is really the home court for Airbus. So given the contrasting sort of safety performance between the duopoly aircraft
I don't think it dampens the tone of the air show in general, but it is a major problem for Boeing. I mean, 787 is their new technology demonstration, and although it's probably their best-selling wide-body aircraft, so the narrow 737 MAX is already experiencing problems.
If 787, the problem turns out to be Boeing's responsibility and the Indian authorities seems to be at least partly investigating that way. They're excluding bird strikes and everything. Then you become a major problem for Boeing on their bottom line hit. So for them it is a major concern.
And also with the Israel-Iran conflict escalating just as the show opens, how are the rising geopolitical tensions shaping conversations around military procurement and defense budgets?
It's a long-simmering conflict, but one thing that seems to be happening is that the threshold for engagement has been lowered. People are now more willing to be trigger-happy and sending out this kind of aerial combat scenario where you have
low human casualties, that's probably the reason why the threshold has been lowered. But sort of a low intensity, long duration, attrition type warfare. So that will change the defense spending, I think. In the past, it's always been, I'm buying the biggest, most high profile systems for strategic deterrence. But now it's more of something, I
I need to replenish my stock quickly, I need to buy something cheaply so I last longer during the attrition. And of course, Chinese manufacturing being able to fill large orders at really low prices, high quality, and especially when new orders come around, the turnaround time for delivery,
especially low with Chinese companies, then that presents an opportunity into a new paradigm for the defense market. Thank you, Dr. Zhang Fen, Associate Professor of Astronomy Department at Beijing Normal University. And that's all the time we have for this edition of World Today. I'm Zhao Ying. Thank you so much for listening. See you next time.
♪