Why China and Latin America move to strengthen ties
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Daily news and analysis. We keep you informed and inspired. This is World Today. Hello and welcome to World Today. I'm Ding He in Beijing. Coming up, President Xi Jinping calls for unity with Latin America in face of global uncertainty. And we will take a look at China's first ever white paper regarding national security.

U.S. President Donald Trump embarks on a visit to the Gulf region seeking big economic deals, and Kurdish PKK disbands and ends 40-year Turkish insurgency. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching World Today.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on China and Latin American and Caribbean states to further align their development strategies and promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. The Chinese top leader made remarks on Tuesday at a ministerial meeting of a forum between China and the community of Latin American and Caribbean states in Beijing.

President Xi Jinping said China is ready to work with Latin America to safeguard a multilateral trading system and ensure the flow and stability of global supply chains, adding that bullying or hegemonism only leads to self-isolation.

This year is marking the 10th anniversary of the China-Sealac Forum. China on Tuesday announced the plans to provide Latin American and Caribbean countries with some 66 billion yuan or 9.2 billion US dollars in terms of credit funding. So for more, joining us now on the line is Han Hua, co-founder and secretary general of Beijing Club for International Dialogue.

So thank you very much for joining us today, Hanhua. First of all, data compiled by China shows that under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, more than 200 infrastructure projects have been implemented in Latin America over the years, creating over a million jobs.

Two-way trade between China and Latin America also exceeded US$500 billion for the first time last year, a 40-fold increase compared to the start of this century. So with that in mind, what do you think is really driving this momentum in this growing economic ties between the two sides?

Oh yes, this is a very sharp and timely question. And I think the numbers are really encouraging, especially in the backdrop of this Latin American forum. So I was actually having a dialogue with the Chilean ambassador to China several years ago. And he told me that there was never a boring moment in China because there were so many business opportunities to discover and to talk and to make them into deals.

and the Chile was one of the first countries in Latin America to sign the free trade agreement with China. So Chile can be a very good example to share with you the driving forces of this momentum coming today to these growing numbers and these encouraging figures, especially the job creation opportunities.

in Latin America as a whole. So I would like to share with you that there are several driving forces. One is the complementary economic structures, because China's demand for energy, for minerals, and for even the agricultural products

aligns well with Latin America's export profile. You know that we're not importing soybeans from the United States anymore. We're only importing them from Brazil. Now we are talking to Argentina to import more soybeans. So this shows that we have really a very complementary but very promising economic structure to have mutual benefit. It's a true street.

And the second reason is the Belt and Road Initiative expansion. Certainly, this is our initiative, but it coped so well with Latin American countries, especially in its ports, the railways, the roads, and energy facilities. Still, the Chile ambassador told me that even Chile was not on the traditional roadmap of the so-called "the ancient Silk Road,"

But they wanted, as well as the Uruguay, Uruguay also, they wanted to be, some Latin American countries wanted to be the new hub for the Belt and Road Initiative expansion in Latin America for China and, you know, for the two sides to have more cooperation. Latin America is the second largest trading partner with China. And I think they aim to be the number one in the future. Yeah.

So if China and Latin America can somehow work together to jointly safeguard this multilateral trading system and to try to ensure the smooth flow within the global or international supply chain systems, what would that mean to the global trade order? I think first thing first, it can certainly strengthen the multilateralism in the micro sense.

because the China-Latin American cooperation would not only reinforce - the relevance and the resilience of a rules-based global trading system - and enhancing the significance and the working order for the WTO, - it can particularly, especially when the protectionism - and the unilateralism are on the rise.

So I think China and Latin America can together send a very clear message to support the World Trade Organization and to put all, if there is any, trade disputes under this framework.

and to uphold the principles of fairness, openness, non-discrimination in global commerce, and also to diversify the global trade routes and partnerships, especially when China is doing its global supply chain, it's enhancing its global supply chain. Latin America can be the piece that cannot be missed.

Also, in terms of the supply chain, because of the tariff war, because of the Ukraine crisis, the global supply chain needs to be reshaped. And it shows that if China and Latin America can cooperate more, it can showcase the supply chain can be very resilient because these are the two continents that are

that's too far away. But if two parts can work together, the joint efforts can improve the infrastructure, can improve the digital connectivity because it's an internet all connected. So the digital connectivity and also the logistics so that it can certainly enhance the supply chain.

Now, for the next three years, President Xi Jinping has pledged to continue China's cooperation with Latin America in food and agricultural affairs, while also expanding cooperation in areas such as clean energy, the digital economy and artificial intelligence. Why do you think these are seen as some of the focal points for cooperation?

Yeah, I like your question so much because for food and agriculture, for Latin American countries, for Argentina, for Brazil, they're like the godsend because they have these vast lands, they have these grasslands for their food and cultural business. These surely can help the bilateral trade.

trade cooperation. But trade cooperation is like the funding or the foundation, the solid foundation for the bilateral relations. But it is kind of a light touch for

For going forward, the clean energy, the digital economy, artificial intelligence have emerged as focal points for China and Latin America cooperation. So I really think these areas are really promising, especially for clean energy. This is not only for the bilateral cooperation, but it is more like have a very significant and positive impact

impact over the global climate change and how to respond to this climate change. It's a joint response from China and Latin America, but it's to the world. And for digital economy,

We have to say that both sides have this innovative driving forces and some inclusivity for the technology. So both sides need to work more on this area, in particular like 5G network distribution, like the e-commerce platforms growth.

and to enhance the e-commerce, the bilateral trade and the multilateral trade. And for the smart cities building and infrastructure building, I think both sides can use each other's technology and innovative energy to develop.

It is not a one-way street, it is a two-way street. And artificial intelligence, it is not only about the development of artificial intelligence technology which China has led in terms of its deep seek, in terms of its military strength,

But I want to point out that Latin America can be a very strong force in terms of artificial intelligence governance because it is a driving force for the global south development. And the global south needs to make a stronger voice in the artificial intelligence governance.

Now, this time we understand in addition to the foreign ministers from the more than 30-something CELAC countries, top leaders of Brazil, Colombia, and Chile are also in China for this forum on one hand and on the other hand for an official visit to China as well.

In the words of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil has a desire to build indestructible and indispensable ties with China.

Now, some people say this underscores how was a new geopolitical situation surrounding the United States. Latin American leaders are increasingly reaching out to other parts of the world. What is your take? Well, we're like observing the drastic events, the world events almost on a daily basis. This is the world order shape.

And even the Secretary of State of the United States, Mark Robill, said the multipolar world is coming, is real. So this is a multipolar world, or this is the era of the multipolar world.

The highlights of this forum is that several presidents of the Latin American countries are coming to Beijing to show and to highlight the significance of this forum and also to show the growing strategic weight of China-Latin America relationship and to also signal a broader recalibration in global diplomacy. So I wanted to share with you that

I'm truly a believer that a multipolar world is taking shape. And as President Xi Jinping mentioned in his speech addressed to this forum, that we need to have more solidarity so that we can compare nodes on a more regular basis.

about the world order, how to shape the world order, how to become more relevant to each other and how to work more towards this development initiative, towards this civilization exchange initiative and towards the security initiative. And these are the funding

you know, measures all the funding cornerstones of the future world development. And this is in particular important to the global south solidarity for these leaders, state leaders of Latin American countries to come to China to show this solidarity. And this is also leave this geopolitical space for diplomacy.

So diplomacy is for peace. Diplomacy is not for disputes or for wars. So these are very good measures and initiatives for the geopolitical space for diplomacy as well. Do you think China has any intention to rival with the United States for the so-called regional influence in Latin America? We know this is a worry on the part of Washington, not only

for the Trump administration, but I guess for the broader foreign policy establishment? I don't think so. I think this is like the Western narrative, especially shaped by the Western media. We can take the China-US announcement on the trade or tariff discussion as an example.

China went to Geneva for peace, for the serious discussion, but we are also totally against the hegemony in using the tariff as a means, as a measure to demolish the

the development rights, not only for China, but for other countries. So this is not a tool or weapon that can be used by the United States. For China and Latin America, China's engagement with Latin America or vice versa, I think it's primarily driven by economic interests.

because we are so far away and the bond united us is not only the tradition not only the civilization exchange which we had compared to those countries with less years of history we have

been bonded together for a very long history. And the reason for development and the motivation for development is for real. So this economic interest can drive many things to happen. So we are very in reality and in practices, China and Latin America are really serious and very

a very realistic, for example, infrastructure development, trade, technological and agricultural cooperation. So these initiatives naturally extend China's influence in this region, but we are not aiming for the so-called sphere of influence because we are dealing with

over 140 plus countries where their largest trading partner. So at the end of the day, it's about the trading, it's about the commerce, it's about the business, and it's about the job opportunities, and it's about the living standards for each and every nations that are dealing with China about their livelihoods.

So there's no so-called strategic agenda behind this. It's all on the paper, and it's all comparing notes from time to time and to have mutual benefits. Thank you very much for joining us. Han Hua, co-founder and secretary general of Beijing Club for International Dialogue.

Coming up, we will take a look at China's first-ever white paper on national security. You're listening to World Today. We'll be back. You're listening to World Today. I'm Ding Han in Beijing. China has issued its first-ever white paper on national security. The white paper says China coordinates its own security and a common security, and that China opposes the overstretching of the concept of national security.

It also says that anti-China forces are relentlessly pursuing strategies of containment, suppression, and encirclement, but China has strong confidence in resisting external security threats. The white paper adds that China's national security in a new era promotes high-quality development, supports high-level opening up, and operates under the rule of law.

So for more, joining us now on the line is Ina Tingen, senior fellow with Taihe Institute. Thank you very much for joining us, Ina. My pleasure, Tim. So this white paper we are talking about here has named people's security as the ultimate goal and political security as the fundamental task. In the context of China,

How do you think people's security and the political security are interconnected to each other?

Well, Ding, I'm familiar with reading through defense white papers from the United States and also from Europe and Australia. And I can tell you there's such a marked difference. China's plan is six major points. It's holistic. It's about defending society, not killing people. So if you look at their priorities, it's all about maintaining the country, serving the country, serving the people.

The last thing they really get to is defense in case there's a war and things like that. Whereas if you look at something from Australia or Great Britain, the United States, it's always about identifying threats, right? How they have to defend, how it has to be a military response, how they're gauging other countries and things like this. So, I mean, really very, very refreshing.

And I think it's something that will have a tremendous impact on the global South, because they look at this and they say, okay, this is a different idea about what the military is about.

So, what do you think is the core message from this statement in this white paper that China's national security in a new era promotes high-quality development, supports high-level opening up, and operates under the rule of law?

Yeah, but it's holistic. That was the point that I took away from it, that it is not about what would be, as I said before, the traditional Western method idea that you have an army there that kills people.

This is an army that helps people first and defends the country also first, but that is the last resort. It really is about furthering the interests of China. As you pointed out, the economic interests and ideas about promoting China are important.

part of this white paper. You would never see anything like that in the United States, Great Britain, Australia, Canada, anywhere else in the world. So, by the way, do you think nowadays a secure and stable environment politically or socially has become a source of China's attractiveness in the eyes of foreign investors? Why or why not?

Well, you know, as Helen Han-Wok, your previous speaker, was talking about, China's perspective is quite different from others. It is not about establishing spheres of military or political influence. It is about trade and that's it.

And that's why there's 140 plus major trade partners with China. So it's not a situation where China is trying to create its enemy, it's cooperation. If you think over the last 600 years, the colonial powers were always extracted. How can we take value out of other countries? Whereas China has come along with a new idea, it's cooperative. How do we work together to make the pie bigger? And how do we get along?

And, you know, there's the three pillars of security, development and respect just for sovereignty. Those are the core assets and issues that China is bringing forward. So this idea that we need common security like or sustainable security, your security should not be built upon the sacrifices of my security or anybody else's security.

How does this idea sound like? I mean, from a Western perspective, probably, do you think they will find it difficult or challenging to accept this idea?

Well, in theory, it shouldn't be difficult to accept. There have been those who have said it. But, you know, but in practical application, you have, let's take Russia, for example. They said that, you know, you said to the West, James Baker said, we will never step one inch. We'll never expand NATO or EU one inch into the previous Soviet bloc.

And they violated that. And then Russia sent all the signals that, look, we're concerned about our security. You continue to encroach on our lands. Do not go into Ukraine. And they did. And that's a situation where how can Russia feel secure if there are missiles five minutes from Moscow?

So actually, I know when we talk about the overstretching of the national security grounds, China is definitely a victim in this regard, especially when some Chinese companies, for example, Huawei, try to do business in certain countries or in certain markets.

So, going forward, how do you think China can somehow manage to work with more countries or more like-minded countries, let's put it this way, to jointly say no to this idea of overstretching the concept of national security?

Well, I always tell people I don't care what you're doing. Lead by example. Preaching words are wonderful, but the real test is action. China's success, even in this latest trade negotiation, being able to get the U.S. to calm down, to be the adult in the room,

This is sending a very, very strong message to other countries. Who do you want to deal with? Somebody who's unreliable, who is imposing tariffs on 180 countries, or somebody who's built up relationships of trade with 140 countries and is open. A country that is saying, look, we want the WTO to function. I mean, it wasn't by mistake that they went and briefed, that the meeting was in Geneva, and they went and briefed the WTO head. That was deliberate.

and it was a showing that china cares about international tuition so there's a there's really the answer your question is is very simply china will continue

to be a factor and to lead simply because it is leading. Thank you very much for joining us. I'm Atingan, senior fellow, West Taihe Institute. Coming up, China's electric vehicle exports soared in April as Chinese cars continue to enjoy strong appeal in some emerging markets. And Donald Trump, the US president, has embarked on a visit to Gulf region seeking big economic deals.

You're listening to World Today. I'm Ding He in Beijing. We'll be back after a short break. Whether it's about your education, the home you live in, or the items you buy, your money has a story to tell. Because every business story is a human story. Global Business.

You are back with World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing. China's car production and car sales saw double-digit growth in the first four months this year. Over 10 million vehicles were made and sold during this particular period. Among them, new energy vehicle production surged by 48% to 4.4 million units, with sales going up by 46%.

New energy vehicles also made up more than 40% of all new car sales in China from January to April. And China's auto exports in the meantime has also edged up, growing by 6% to nearly 2 million units.

So for more on this, my colleague Zhao Yang earlier spoke with Dr. Yan Liang, professor of economics with Willamette University. So Yan, China's new energy vehicle exports saw a notable jump in April. So what are the main reasons for it, especially under the U.S. tariff threats?

Right. So as you mentioned, the NEV passenger vehicle export increased by 44.2% year on year. And we saw this is also just an ongoing trend because the first three months, China contributed to 84% of the global NEV sales. And so that just shows that China's NEV exports are very competitive.

In terms of the U.S. tariff threats, I don't think this affects China's NEV exports very much because the U.S. market was pretty much closed to China's NEVs. China's exports only auto parts and some of the components to the U.S. and mostly from the Chinese's subsidiaries within the United States.

So, I mean, the long story short is that, you know, China does not rely on the U.S. market very much for its NEV exports. And the question about where does China sell it? I think Europe was a big market for the NEVs and also Southeast Asia and now increasingly Europe.

Latin American countries as well as Middle East countries. Those are the large markets for China's both and EVs, but also internal congestion combustion engine cars as well. So in other words, you know, global sales market is growing and China is also taking measures to reduce the trade barriers with the EU. And so I think those would be the most that those would be the major markets for China's and EVs.

And you mentioned Europe, Southeast Asia, Middle East. So what are the advantages of Chinese NEVs on these overseas markets?

Well, China's NEVs are very competitive in both of its pricing. So they're usually very cost competitive because China is very large scale of production. But moreover, I think China's NEVs just excels in their performances and all these innovations that have been propelling the NEV sectors. We know that China has many different models of the NEVs with different price ranges that could fit different budgets.

And they also keep innovating, putting a lot of AI softwares and all kinds of interesting features in the car that enhance both the safety, but also driver experiences. And so that's why I think the Chinese and EVs are

really competitive and very welcomed, very popular in these global south countries as well as EU. And we've also seen some possible progress in the China-EU tariff negotiations on EV, which could benefit both Chinese automakers and European dealers. So what do you think is the outlook of China and EU cooperations on the EV industry?

Well, we know that the EU is very competitive in the ICE production in the past decades. And now they're also moving towards the sort of front line of the NEVs. They're also making a lot of progress in terms of technological innovations and also large scale of production. And they also are very sort of

in favor of the kinds of green transition in the transportation sector, unlike in the United States, they still very much favor those gas gasoline, SUVs, and big sort of the internal combustion engine cars. Whereas the EU, they do have the goal of facing out these ICEs and try to adopt NEVs by 2035.

So I think this just means that there are a lot of potential for China and the EU to cooperate. They could divide the market, they could specialize in certain types of cars. Europe is still very good in making luxurious cars and they're also very good in designing the cars.

So I think those are really the areas where two sides can cooperate. China excels in battery technologies and China also has a lot of first mover experiences in EVs. They also have very large scale production. But at the same time, like I said, I think EU still has their own advantages.

That just means that, you know, those countries can divide up the market and try to expand their comparative advantage in certain segments of the markets. And that would help them both to take advantage of the scale effects and to be able to serve each other's customers, especially, you know, when China's EVs open plans in EU that help to create jobs in local market. It helps to reduce the cost.

of these cars for European consumers. And same thing when EU comes to China and invests in China. So I think there are win-win cooperation that both sides can seek. And the matter is, through these trade talks, through communications, both sides could really understand the advantages and cooperative opportunities to really expand the market and gain from the expansion of the market rather than competing out each other.

And China's electric vehicle market has reached the milestone with EVs now representing over 52% of the new car sales in April. So do you think this is a trend or what can the government and industry do to ensure this trend continues?

Well, I do think this is a trend, and I think there are many factors why EV transition has been so rapid in China. So you mentioned the role of government. I think government has been supporting various infrastructure, so building the highways, building these –

high-speed rail that connects distant cities together. And so people don't really have too much of the road rage because they can always drive the car and they can park at certain places and take the train. So it's not like in the U.S., for example, where if you wanted to drive from one state to the other and you don't have those fast-speed train, then you

consumers do have those kinds of road ranges. They worry that the battery is going to run out. So I think the government can continue to support EV industries by building infrastructure, especially in some of the rural areas, to build high-quality roads that would allow EVs to be able to drive on. Government can also continue to support some of the basic research and development and continue to roll out policies that are

friendly to private enterprises and encourage them to take risks and innovate. And the industrial sector, in terms of businesses, they definitely play a very important role here because they continue to innovate, they continue to spend a lot on R&D, they continue to cooperate and also compete

to roll out the best product at the most competitive prices for the consumers. And so we know the most recent trend is really to integrate AI technologies, self-driving, autonomous driving into these vehicles and also improve the battery technologies to have fast charging batteries and long lasting batteries. So I think all of this will help to improve the quality and entice customers

consumers to purchase more. And last but not least, I think the consumers are also welcoming these EVs because it's very easy for them to have the charging stations. Again, this is another infrastructure the government has been building. China has the most publicly accessible charging stations than any countries in the world. And so that also facilitates the consumers to purchase the EVs. And Chinese consumers are also very tech savvy. They also welcome these kinds of

new products, both for the safety and the convenience of driving, but also for the sake of environmental protection. So I think, you know, from both government to the industries, to the consumers, you see a very healthy ecosystem that will continue to promote EV penetration. And you mentioned the artificial intelligence. So how much has this tech already transformed the EV industry?

Well, I think China is developing AI technology in not only fast speed, but also make it very affordable. So the deep-seek moment has shown that the AI technology could be open sourced and could be very cost effective. And so that way it's very easy for other industries to utilize AI in their various products and services. So I think that is why you're seeing the AI technology is being really quickly integrated

uh in the in the ev industry and that includes even some of the very low end right very low price range uh cars that still have autonomous driving features and so on um so i think this is a very important trend i think um as some of the industry experts talked about china's ev is not just ev is eiv is electric also intelligent vehicles and so i think that is really where the market potential is going to be because consumers

You know, they don't just like clean cars, right, clean energy cars, but they really like those smart, intelligent features of the car. And I think the AI development in China make it so much more cost effective for this technology to be integrated into all various industries, including EV. And so we're seeing this is very fast developing right now, you know, from all range of technologies.

of cars. So I think this really puts China's EV industry and AI industry in a very good, synergistic way that helped to develop both industries. Yan Liang, professor of economics with William M. University, talking with my colleague Zhao Yang. Coming up, Donald Trump embarks on golf visits seeking big economic deals. This is World Today. We'll be back.

You're listening to World Today. I'm Ding Han in Beijing. U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the Middle East to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with the Gulf states. It is the first major international trip of Donald Trump's second term in office.

He will stop in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates during this ongoing four-day tour. According to the White House, the U.S. president will seek expanded investments from the region, part of his renewed effort to drive American economic interests overseas. For more, my colleague Ge'an Na earlier spoke with Dr. Joseph Siracusa, professor of global futures with Curtin University.

Professor, first of all, how do you view President Trump's current trip to the Middle East? And why do you think he chose this region for the first major international visit of his second term? Well, as your listeners might recall, President Trump visited the Middle East on his first trip overseas after his 2016 election. He has friends and a lot of business interests in Saudi Arabia. He likes the way he's treated there. They treat him very well.

And he likes Qatar and he likes the United Arab Emirates. So, you know, he likes that part of the world because somebody said today, you know, it's his happy place. He knows he's going to be treated well there.

And he's got a lot of business. You know, he's in the middle of a lot of things right now, tariff negotiations and wars in Gaza in the Middle East and in Ukraine. And so, you know, he's going to a place where they're going to make him feel pretty well. And he wants something from them. He wants them to pledge billions of dollars of investments in the United States.

And so I think President Trump is going there for emotional reasons, political reasons, and he wants to score some runs on the board. So in terms of economic and trade cooperation, what kinds of specific deals do you expect will be signed during this trip? And how might these agreements impact the development of relevant U.S. industries? Well, I mean, he wants them to invest in microchips and AI and that kind of thing.

he he wants them to um be part of building factories in the United States you know he's determined to give the impression whether it's true or not that manufacturing is coming to the United States and this is his way of attracting it he also has a very selfish motive too here and that is he's um he's uh trying to hold down the prices of oil for inflationary reasons and he'd like um

Saudi Arabia and others to maybe agree to hold down the price of oil so as not to pass those those costs onto the American consumers so he's got that too and he's now he's not just going to talk him

economics you know you can bet that when he sits down with the uh the Crown Prince Saudi Crown Prince he's going to talk about the U.S efforts to uh dismantle Iran's nuclear program and he's going to be talking about ending the war in Gaza because you know when the war there ends someone has to pick up the bill and try to rebuild the place or or do something with the Palestinians so he's going to need the efforts of the Saudis and

And of course, he's got a special relationship with the Qataris is because they've actually are the interlocutors or the brokers with Hamas. So, you know, he's got a lot of deals there. He's brought his secretary of state, which is his chief diplomat.

And he brought his entourage and he's brought business interests. So he's trying to whip up business. At the same time, he's trying to gain some political allies or he's trying to secure his best political friends in the Middle East. And keep in mind that he's very close to Israel and he's not going. This will be the first time a president gets this far without going to Israel. And this is sort of...

sort of a slap down of Prime Minister Netanyahu. You know, I think the Americans and the Israeli, not interest, but their goals in the Middle East are diverging. And I think Trump would like to end the violence there and sort of get the credit for it at the end of the day. And of course, the Israelis are in no hurry to end the war.

But according to American media and analysis, this trip appears to heavily focused on business and trade while largely sidestepping regional security issues, because Trump's current Middle East policy, especially on the Israel and Palestine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue, has drawn criticism and raised concerns. So how do you assess such analysis and the Trump administration's overall approach to the region?

Well, I mean, I think he's trying to bypass the public perception that he's not going to be conducting...

foreign policy in the area it's just about business but that's not true when you sit down with these people and given the interests i mean what happens in iran is that it might happen to uh israel it might happen to saudi arabia one day i mean the iran has got to be uh on good sides with everybody and so are the saudis so i don't i i think privately uh president trump will engage his hosts on security and political issues but he's not going to be talking about it

to the press or he's not going to give the impression that's why he went there. But I don't see how he could avoid talking about security and politics and what happens after Gaza and whether there's a deal with the Iranians. I mean, on the surface, it's about business. It's about his business interests there. And it's about getting the Saudis, who also last time, I think in 2017, promised a lot of money that wasn't really delivered. But

He likes to keep these people on side. They're important allies for him. And I think he's determined to do business with them

despite the promises of the Abraham Accords. He was going to organize sort of regular relations between these neighbors and Israel so that he could do business in the Middle East. And I think we're beyond that right now because of what's happening in Gaza. It's a little late to be sort of mending those kinds of fences. It's almost...

almost too late at all. So he's trying to do an end run here. Business, but you can bet that at dinner, after dinner, private conversation, security interests will be discussed. U.S. media reports also suggest the Trump administration is trying to ease domestic political pressure by attracting increased investment from Gulf countries.

But many past deals, such as the US$350 billion agreement announced during Trump's 2017 visit to Saudi Arabia, have not been fully realized. So if new deals are reached this time, what obstacles might stand in the way of their implementation? Well, I reckon that the first set of promises

fell short because Trump wasn't reelected. These things can extract a trillion dollars from these people overnight. While the Saudis are famously wealthy, I think they don't have that kind of cash in the bank. So, you know, it has to be done over a period of time.

And it has to be some reassurance that people in the White House will be the same political party. As you recall, that compared with the Biden administration, Trump's on positively friendly terms with the Saudis. I think Biden avoided the place and he wanted to hold the crown prince there accountable for murder and all the rest of it. So it takes a while to develop these deals, maybe five to seven years. And I think

Trump is going back to, it's unfinished business for him. He wants to complete what the Saudis were going to do in 2017. And because Trump was consumed with defending himself at a couple of impeachment proceedings, and he was consumed with his critics in Congress,

He didn't have a chance to, I think, focus on what was going on there. But I think he's going there to secure the money. He's going to want to see from the Saudis proof in the short term that they're serious. What that proof looks like, I'm not quite sure. But he wants them to commit large amounts of monies to investment on American soil.

Joseph Syracuse, professor of global futures with Curtin University, talking to my colleague Ge Anna. Coming up, Kurdish PKK disbands and putting an end to a 40-year Turkey insurgency. This is World Today. Stay tuned.

You're listening to World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing. In Turkey, the Kurdistan Workers' Party militant group has decided to put an end to its armed struggle. The PKK said on Monday that all military operations would cease immediately, adding that weapon handovers would depend on Ankara's response. Ankara, for its part, has welcomed the PKK's decision.

The decision was actually made at a PKK congress held in response to a February call to disband from its long-time jailed leader Abdullah Al-Khlam. The PKK, for your information, launched its insurgency in Turkey in 1984. So joining us now on the line is Zhang Shen, a research fellow with the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs. Thank you very much for joining us.

Thank you. So many people are wondering what has really prompted the pinkie cane to make this very decision. What is your observation?

I think the PKK is basically driven and forced in a sense by the current international atmosphere in the Middle East region to make such a decision. And one of the most important factors is the regime change in Syria taking place in the end of last year. And because in the past 10 years, the PKK and the YPG in northern Syria has been

taking advantage of the terrible relationship between Erdogan's government and Assad's government in Syria. So Erdogan could not have cooperated with Assad to militarily invade northern Syria to destroy the regimes of the Kurds in that region.

But what happened after the regime change in Syria is that the new HTS-led government is very pro-Turkey, is very pro-Erdogan, and it has been receiving a lot of armed supports and monetary support from Turkey. So in this new situation, Turkey could have...

cooperated with them and to launch a larger scale, even like total war against the northern Kurdish areas of Syria. And the second reason is the U.S. is basically betraying the Kurds. During the war against Daesh in early in the 2014 to 2017 or 16, during that time, the U.S. was very close to the Kurdish forces in northern Syria.

and was giving them weapons and money and a lot of political support as well. At this moment, Trump has made it clear that he does not want to stay in the region. He's no longer giving support to the Kurds. And he's even thinking of retreating U.S. bases in nearby Syria back to U.S. or to deploy to other places.

So the Kurdish forces, especially the PKK, feel like they could have been threatened by the joint force of HTS government in Syria and of Turkey as well. And they could not expect further support or mediation or diplomatic help or protection from the United States. So I think those two reasons prompted them to make the decision.

Hmm. So currently, it seems there are no available details on how the disarmament and a breakup of the PKK would actually happen in practice. What kind of barriers do you think this process are likely to be faced with?

I think there are at least three major direct barriers and I think one fundamental problem that are all hindering the peace process. The first one and most obvious one is that there might be militant members within the PKK continue to do their armed struggle or attack.

And this is not a rare thing. In history, back to 2004, there are already this group of PKK members who feel like the PKK is not so-called radical enough to meet their desire. So they break out from the PKK to form this organization called Kurdistan Freedom Hawks, the TAK.

And we could expect the same thing to happen in this round, is that even though the leadership asked people to lay down their weapon, but the actual fighters in the ground, they may not necessarily listen to that and they just refuse to do so or they break out of the organization and form a new organization to continue doing those attacks. And the second barrier, I think, the direct issue is that what happens with those PKK fighters in northern Iraq?

You know, the Iraqi Kurdish government has been in quite close cooperation with Erdogan's Turkey in terms of economic trade. But if the Turkish government asks them to basically hand over PKK fighters or to force the PKK fighters to lay down their weapon, that's another level of a thing that the Iraqi Kurdish government may not be able to do or they may not want to do.

because of the political correctness in the Kurdish society itself. And the third one is whether the Syrian Kurdish forces, the YPJ, the YPJ under the leadership of PYD might agree to this or not. And this is an even harder issue to make than comparing to the Iraqi case I just talked about.

And I think the fundamental barrier is very important is whether the Turkish government in the long run is able to further integrate to the Kurdish communities into the Turkish mainstream society and to sort of make a compromise with those Kurdish communities on their political or cultural identity rights or demands and things like that.

And if this process of true nation building and national compromise is not completed, I don't envision the peace being able to continue for long. So the final question before we let you go, do you agree with this idea that if somehow this PKK's armed struggle in Turkey can be resolved in a peaceful manner,

it will be a significant development for the Middle East as a whole. I do not believe so, because PKK can lay down the weapons, definitely like a big progress for Turkey. But for the region in total, I think it's very difficult.

say. Because let's say in the Kurdish issue in that side, we see that the Kurdish movement has like two different wings or two different factions, let's say. One is the PKK-1, which is historically supported by the Soviet Union, having leftist ideology and doing armed struggle. But there's also a new

when that is probably the mainstream at this moment, is those liberal nationalist Kurdish movements supported by the United States in the last about 10 years. And the example of that is, let's say, the Iraqi Kurdish movement, the Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum in 2017.

So even if the PKK is gone, what happens with the Kurdish issue is still going to continue. And what happens about, let's say, this liberal wind of the Kurdish movement in Iraq?

The Turkish Kurds can also do the same similar thing to focus on, let's say, nonviolent way of nationalist building and focusing on lobbying the Western powers. And the Kurds in

in general has been doing quite well in lobbying western powers in in france in in the united states and things like that so i think that's very difficult to to say that even as long as pkk laid down the weapon the kurdish question just disappeared actually is might even becoming more

difficult to do for Turkey to stop this process. And the second thing, I think the most important thing in the region is related but not directly about the Kurdish issue, is that the new regime change in Syria, the HTS-led government is very likely quite religious religiously extremist one and then they may cause further refugees wave in a

couple of years if they fail in governing and delivering economic protection to the people of Syria. So if that thing comes out, the situation would become even more difficult. I'd say millions of refugees may further escape out of Syria and go into nearby countries like Turkey, like Jordan, those places and causing

severe instability and HTS might be exporting some sort of religious extremism again to Turkey, to Jordan, to those nearby countries and causing further instabilities in the region.

And the relationship between HTS and Turkey is hard to say that it's going to be as good as right now in the very long term. So I think even if the PKK lay down the weapon, the leftist wind is gone. We are still bothered by, let's say, not only the liberal way of the Kurdish national movement,

But also we would probably see some sort of like the spillover of religious extremism in the region that makes the Middle East as a region still quite unsafe. So I doubt if the PKK issue is going to have a very profound impact on the stability of the region in the long term.

I take your point. The road ahead is very long, obviously. But thank you very much for joining us, Dr. Zhang Shen. That's all the time for this edition of World Today. I'm Ding He in Beijing. Bye for now.