Why is Canada’s next PM determined to win trade war with Trump?
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Hello and welcome to World Today, I'm Dinghan in Beijing. Coming up, China pledges more support and funding to support employment. Canada's next prime minister vows to win trade war with Trump. In Syria, clashes and acts of revenge have killed more than 1,300 people.

And the European Central Bank has cut Eurozone interest rates once again, warning that trade war fears are hurting the economy. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching "World Today".

China has pledged to step up resources and funding to support employment. Wang Xiaoping, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, said on Sunday that new policies will be unveiled to help college graduates in China hunt for jobs. The minister suggested that China is facing an arduous task in terms of stabilizing and expanding employment in 2025, noting the first two months saw a good start for the job market.

China plans to create more than 12 million new urban jobs over the course of this year, while keeping its urban jobless rate around 5.5%. So joining us now on the line is Dr. Yao Shujian, Chang Kong Professor of Economics with Chongqing University.

So thank you very much for joining us today, Professor Yeo. It is generally believed that economic growth is the key engine for job creation. So at this year's two sessions in China, do you see strong policy support for achieving economic growth that can somehow in turn ensure stable employment?

Yes, employment and economic growth is intertwined. Without the economic development and GDP growth, it will be difficult to create new jobs. So this year at the two sessions meeting, the government report says that the GDP target is to set at 5%.

This means that China is able to create roughly more than 12 million jobs as last year. So the first priority is stable economic growth. With stable economic growth, then the business would expand to include more people for the job market. So this year the target is also very ambitious.

Although it is not an easy target, but I believe with the 5% economic growth, it should be able to digest this number of people into the job market. So on Sunday, China's Minister of Human Resources and Social Security pledged more specific measures such as supporting the labor-intensive industry during their transformation and upgrading,

In the meantime, more focus will be placed upon the advanced manufacturing sector, those new consumption hotspots, grassroots areas in both urban and rural communities, as well as, say, small and medium-sized enterprises. What do you make of the significance of these more tailored measures?

This more tailored message is very important for driving up employment because the large enterprises or the capital intensive, technology intensive enterprises, the capability of absorbing so many number of people is very limited. So by supporting the labor intensive industry plus the technology upgrading for those industries,

as well as the gross low employment in a work unit, as well as the medium, small, micro enterprises, there is a guarantee they should be able to provide sufficient number of job opportunities.

So the emphasis on the labour internship and also the smaller enterprises are the two important basic mechanisms for steady increase in labour employment.

And why we need to emphasize labor employment is because China has such a huge population. Each year, we have to increase so many number of employees into the job market. It's a medium-sized European country for the total population equivalent to just one year increase of the labor job market in China. So the task is

is very arduous, very difficult, but this requires a concerted effort, right from the central government to the local government and also the so-called cooperative effort between the government and the enterprises and also the financial institutions. So this kind of complicated effort

is reflecting the very difficult task to increase so many number of jobs every year. And this year is the same. The target is quite high, so the job needs to be done. So the kinds of effort emphasizing at the grassroots and also the smaller enterprises are the very necessary policy mechanisms.

So this year, the number of college graduates in China will reach more than 12.2 million.

In this regard, the minister pledged to expand the number of hirings in those grassroots projects and implement a million-job internship program. So from a university professor's perspective, to what extent do you think these measures can help reduce the pressure on employment for college graduates?

Yeah, working in a key university in China, I know we have different meetings. I mean, right from the university leader to professors to general, you know, people who are working with the students. I think the task is very important.

It's really big for us and the pressure is very high. But despite this, I think I just went to the administrative building. I saw lots of employers or the companies, universities, they are coming here to recruit our graduate students. Not only the bachelor degree students, but also master degree and PhD degree students.

Each year, this university has more than 10,000 graduates. So the task is very challenging. But the university I work is relatively more prestigious. For the university at a lower level, I think the task is even more challenging. So the cooperation between the university to provide the information, to provide the job market exchange,

And also, the government to encourage all the employers - to open as many job opportunities as possible, - including job training scheme, which is about one million graduate students, - which is quite significant. So, all these kinds of concerted efforts in different stakeholders, - university, government, and also employers, -

and also the social organization. These are necessary, you know, concerted efforts for the whole country to make sure that university graduates, this large number, 12.2 million graduates, they more or less secure a decent job in the society.

which is of course very challenging. I'm not sure we will make it 100%, but at the university level and the society level, then we are doing our best to make sure our students, when they go out of the university gate, they have a secure home for their employment. So in addition to college graduates,

One data I have read about shows that the employment needs of people who were lifted out of poverty in recent years remain above 30 million here in China. So what do you think is the focal point when we talk about how to provide job opportunities for these people?

Yeah, providing job opportunity for these people is very crucial in a sense of preventing the return of poverty into the Chinese society. And this is one of the very top priority of the central government, including the first policy document

a few days ago about how to revitalize the rural and agricultural sector and supporting the farmers.

So making sure that investment, job opportunity and the production system, the ecological compensation policy, and also through education, through the support for the relatively weaker, less vulnerable section of the population is very important. Because China was able to eradicate absolute poverty

absolute poverty in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is a great achievement. But nowadays, in order to prevent poverty from returning to the trap, it's equally challenging. So the only solution for preventing poverty from returning to the trap is that we provide jobs and make sure that the people at least have an income

for the family so that they can have a more decent life. So this is really a very challenging and very important task not only for the central government but also for the local government, for the community and for the agricultural rural sector.

The final question before we let you go, and I guess this is largely interconnected with the previous question. Some people say the most vulnerable group in China's labor market nowadays are actually the older generation of those migrant workers who are now approaching their retirement age, for example, around 60 years old.

But these people do not have access to pension funds or other kinds of social safety nets. Professor Yao, do you think this is a legitimate concern and how can China cope with the relevant risks here?

Yes, I think the Chinese people wondered how to look after the elderly, especially the people at the age of 60, 65, up to their retirement, and they basically don't have the capability or ability to engage in formal employment.

So particularly for the rural, you know, elder farmers, because they don't have the same social security guarantee as their urban counterparts. So relatively, these people, yes, they are far more vulnerable than their rural elderly counterparts. But if you look at the reality of Chinese society, these people can be divided into two different situations.

For most of the low-income elderly, they go back to the countryside. They can still have some sort of farming activity to make sure they have a basic necessity. And secondly, it depends on the family setting, because their children are working in the city or in other employment. So their children would be able to support to some extent to mitigate.

the difficulty of this group of people. But for those people who do not have the children to support, these people are particularly more vulnerable. I think the effort should be, you know, multidimensional. The first effort that the government at the central local level, they should look at each family in a very precise manner. For those families, they have a good understanding

family, the children have good income, it may not be a big concern, but they still should be protected. And the second group, if their children are either because they don't have a decent income or stable employment, this elderly will be particularly more difficult. So I would suggest the central and local government should pay more attention to this group of people.

they may not be accounting for a large proportion, could be a small proportion, but in terms of the absolute number, it could be quite significant. Your point is well taken. Dr. Yao Shujian, Chang Kong Professor of Economics with Chongqing University. Coming up, Canada's next prime minister vows to win trade war with Trump. Stay tuned.

You're listening to World Today, I'm Dinghani Baijing. In Canada, Mark Carney has warned the race to succeed Justin Trudeau as the country's prime minister. He is now vowing to win the trade war against the U.S. President Donald Trump. The former governor of the Canadian Central Bank and the Bank of England as well has beaten three competitors by a landslide in the Liberal Party's internal leadership contest.

The 59-year-old Kearney spent much of his victory speech attacking Trump, actually, saying, quote, Americans should make no mistake, unquote. He is expected to be sworn in in the coming days and will lead the liberals in the next general election. So joining us now on the line is Dr. Joseph Siracusa, professor of global futures with Kerding University. Thank you very much for joining us.

Thank you. So Carney has never served in any elected office before. He is largely seen as a technocrat. Within his own party, why do you think he has made, he has taken more than 85% of the vote to beat his nearest rival? Well, I think he beat everybody up because of what you just said. He is a technocrat. He is not a politician. I think they'd had enough of him.

Justin Trudeau and his politicking and his political wars with the United States and the like. And I think they've turned to somebody who has this very fine public service record. Apparently he was governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, which these are important positions, as a matter of fact. And they see him as somebody who's got the mental and physical ability to stand up to Donald Trump. Trudeau wasn't standing up for himself. You know, he just...

just kind of buckled. But, you know, Trudeau has been in power for nine years, and for a Western politician, nine years is quite a shelf life. So the next general election in Canada is expected to be called in the coming weeks. If we think about why Trudeau decided to resign, it

It was because he had faced the pressure to quit over some deep unpopularity among voters, I guess. But now it seems the Liberals have seen a remarkable political turnaround as Canadians have been galvanized by the threats from Trump.

For example, at the beginning of this year, the liberals trailed the conservatives by more than 20 points in the election polls. Now some polls show the liberals statistically tied with the conservatives. So, Professor, what do you make of this political turnaround for the liberals? And do you think...

It is fair to say that the threat from Trump has actually done the Liberals a great favor in Canada's domestic politics.

Yeah, I think Trump's attack on Trudeau in particular and Canada in general, I think has boosted the Canadian flag. And there, you know, it's an effect called rallying around the flag. A lot of Canadians have become very pro-Canadian. You know, in Canada, a lot of people there are North Americans. That is, they think of Canada and the United States as co-equal. Very few people think of Canada as just Canada. Keep in mind that 90% of Canadians...

over 40 million live within 100 miles of the American border. I mean, in that sense, they're tied very closely to the American economy, American media, American radio and all the rest of it. So they're pretty close. Keep also keep in mind that cost of inflation was killing Trudeau. I mean, aside from his fight from his fights with President Trump,

Canadians were having trouble affording apartments, houses. They were working on cars they couldn't afford. The price of living was going up. And, you know, they just didn't like the taxes that he brought in. He just looked a little too tax crazy for them. So they were looking for some kind of relief here. And, you know, Kearney looks like he may have that, as a matter of fact. But there's no doubt about it.

They had very, very low ratings. I think they were down in the one digits. And now they're tied even in the general election.

So I think President Trump has probably done the Canadians, at least the Liberal Party, a favor, though certainly didn't intend it. And I might also add, he did the same thing for the Mexican president. He made her a little more popular than she might have been. Claudia Simba. So we have actually heard all those harsh words against Trump's threats from Carney.

For example, he has called Trump's tariff as "unjustified". But do you think those harsh words from Carney that can somehow show a high degree of determination can be translated into real action against the threat from the Big Brother on the South when Carney is actually in the office?

Yeah, I think Kanye will be able to put up quite a fight, as a matter of fact. He understands the significance of retaliatory tariffs. He understands the significance of doubling down on diplomacy to look for, you know, variances or dispensations. And he understands the importance of diversified trade. And, yeah.

and looking for new markets. I mean, this is going to force Canadians to look further afield. I mean, they produce important goods and services, and other people might be interested in these things, too. And also, he knows that he has ways of boosting domestic production.

and maybe even supporting business and workers through economic programs who are suffering on this. So he's got the technical skills. I mean, as an economist, I mean, sometimes economists get it very wrong. But it's not just the threat from Trump about the tariff. I mean, Trump has threatened the Canadians with the tariff because of, well,

aliens, undocumented aliens are supposedly coming in along a 5,000 mile border that's across the continent of the United States and then up north to Alaska. And he's also been complaining about ethanol and the basis of ethanol entering the United States. He makes a big fuss about that. But, you know, he also tells the American people these tariffs are going to fill up

the American Treasury, that's not true because these tariffs are going to fall on the American people. I mean, there is just no way in the world the American people aren't going to pay for these increases unless, of course, the companies buying these goods are able to force the Canadians to reduce them by, say, 25% if they have that kind of purchasing power. But anyway, I think...

This fellow has all the tools and keep in mind in the background, you know, he like, and I saw his speech today. He, he, he said that under his watch, Canada will never be the United States. This idea of teasing, uh, uh,

Trudeau with a quarry in Canada as the 50th state is 51st. It's sort of ridiculous, actually. It isn't going to happen. In 1812, the United States was at war with Britain and Canada. And as you probably may or may not know, the Canadians and the British went into Washington and burned the White House down. So you can't.

can't really push these people around because they know how to fight back. So Donald Trump's big leverage, or to use this Trump-style rhetoric, his big card in terms of how to bully Canada is that Canada's economy depends significantly on trade with the United States. There's no doubt about that.

Now actually we started hearing calls in Canada many many years ago about this need to diversify its foreign trade. So why do you think Canada has largely failed to do so over all these years?

Because after a couple of trade deals, one with Clinton and then another one with President Trump a couple of years ago, Canada felt the Canadians felt that their economy was satisfactorily integrated with the United States. This idea of the United States turning against him like some dog. I mean, that is all brand new to these people. They can't imagine what Trump is up to or what he's trying to prove. And so, yeah.

I think that's why they haven't diversified, because they didn't get their shock until recently that Trump is coming after them for a whole lot of reasons. And they don't really quite know how to respond, but they'll respond in a sensible way. Canadians are very sensible. I mean, they're not going to go crazy about Trump. No one's certainly going to threaten them over their flag of sovereignty or territorial integrity. That is a mistake.

So very briefly, Professor, do you think Mr. Trump has permanently damaged the Canadians' trust in America? Why or why not? Well, yeah, he has temporarily. I mean, this will all be patched up after Trump goes. I think he's done that. But, you know,

Tariffs are like sanctions. They don't work, or they may work 40% of the time. Trump's turning to sanctions or to tariffs around the world. The whole world is going to get hit with 25%, Chinese market 10%, some areas even twice that amount. This idea that tariffs will solve America's problems or distribution problems and return or repatriate the American manufacturing industry.

This is a pipe dream. It's never happened before, and it's not going to happen now because the president's policies are too confused and that cross-purposes to have a single goal. So I think at the end of the day, when Trump is gone, he's in his final term. He can't run again. Yeah. Your point's well taken, but our time is limited, as always. Thank you very much for joining us, Joseph Siracusa, joining us from Curting University.

You are listening to World Today. We'll be back after a short break.

You're back with World Today, I'm Dinghan in Beijing. More than 1,300 people in Syria have been killed amid intensified fighting between forces associated with the country's new government and those who are loyal to former leader Bashar al-Assad. The conflict is considered as the worst level of violence in this country since insurgents overthrew the Assad government back in December.

The fighting broke out on Thursday last week in the coastal province of Latakia following reports that 16 government forces were killed by the Alawiti government. And in response, the government sent reinforcements to and imposed curfews on this province as well as a neighboring province. The Alawiti community, for your information, was part of Assad's traditional base of support.

So joining us now on the line is Dr. Zhang Chuchu, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies with Fudan University. Thank you very much for joining us. So first of all, what do you think the outbreak of the fighting tell us about the current political situation in Syria?

Well, I think what has happened recently in Syria is very worrisome. And also, I think this shows that the post Assad, Syria is still far from being stable. For instance, above all, I think the reconciliation process definitely faces a lot of challenges.

And right now we can see that although the new group that takes control of Syria, which is Hayaat al-Tahrir al-Hashem, often shouted out the slogan of reconciliation after taking power, obviously right now the Alawis are not satisfied and they accuse them for the oppression. And also second, I would say the compatibility of Hayaat al-Tahrir al-Hashem recently is quite limited.

And it shows that actually this group has not gained absolute control. Also, we have to note that last year when Bashar's regime collapsed, actually the former government's army did not engage in fierce confrontation with the group for a long time. So lots of many former veterans and officers are still there. So that is why they can gather together and rearm themselves so swiftly. So on the part of these forces who stand royal to Assad's

What could be their ultimate political goals by fighting with the forces associated with the new government since Assad is already gone?

From my perspective, I think the objectives are still not very clear. And also we have to take into note that actually the Alawis is composed of different factions and actually different factions have different objectives. And I would say maybe the first objective, first type of objective may be to let Bashar al-Assad come back. But of course, that is going to be very difficult. And Bashar is not in Syria as well.

And the second scenario might be to support a new force of Alawis. But I think in any case, it is still very hard to change the whole situation and the geopolitical landscape right now in Syria, because it is quite hard to destroy Hayat al-Hashem at this stage. And also we have to take into consideration that

It is considered by a lot of foreign forces and also right now I think recently Turkey has already made it very clear that it's not going to let the Alawis come back. So I think it is still very hard.

So by the way, frankly speaking, do you think the whole Alawi community around Latakia and the neighboring Tatus province should be seen as a group that wants to fight or resistance and does not want peace?

Personally, I don't think the whole Alawi community around these provinces should be seen as a group that doesn't want peace. Although there are a lot of discontent sentiments in general among the residents in these provinces, and this is caused by the failure of reconciliation between the Alawis and Sunnah at the moment.

And as you know, the Alawis, despite their very small demographic size in Syria, used to be the dominant force under Bashar al-Assad. And Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that overthrew Bashar's regime, has a leadership mostly belonging to the Sunni sect and is used to take an Islamist position.

So recently after they took power, there are still a lot of conflicts between the two sides. But I would say the civilians are very different from the armed activists. And also it is important to take into consideration the fact that Syria has long been an arena for proxy wars. So we also have to take into consideration the external forces.

And actually, after the collapse of Bashar's regime, I would say the proxy conflicts and confrontation has actually intensified. Now, actually, Syria's interim president, Mr. Ahmed El-Shera, he has on more than one occasion pledged that the new government will protect all minorities in this country.

Speaking from a realistic or a technical point of view, how would you assess the difficulty of doing so? Well, yes, actually, like many Islamist parties or groups experienced in the past, I would say there are a lot of challenges. And one typical challenge faced by Hayat al-Tahrir al-Hashem at the moment is to what extent and in what way is this going to make a real change?

Originally it was an Islamist group and that was why it demonstrated a very strong mobilization capacity. And it chanted anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans at the moment and also it had a lot of sectarian policies. But actually right now after it took power in order to lift sanctions

Also, in order to attract more audience, both domestic ones and foreign ones, it tries to take reforms and also it tries to adopt a more tolerant policy. But right now the challenge is that if you change too much, then it means that the core supporters in the past of your group can become very unsatisfied and in the end there can be big disputes.

and even fragmentation in terms of your organizational structure. And that is what Haya Tahrir al-Sham is facing right now. So very, very briefly, the final question before we let you go. What do you think the role that, for example, outside of forces, for example, UN security peacekeepers might be able to play in terms of

calming down the situation right now in Syria.

Right, I think basically two measures can be taken at the moment. I think the first one is that the international organizations might try its best to alleviate and reduce the humanitarian crisis that is faced by Syrian civilians at the moment, including the women and children. And also on the other hand, I think the national organizations and also big

powers and regional powers might try to provide more platforms for policy coordination with each other and also provide more opportunities to facilitate negotiations between different factions and groups in Syria in order to maintain its peace.

Thank you very much for joining us. Dr. Zhang Chuchu, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Fudan University. Coming up, European Central Bank has cut Eurozone interest rates once again, warning trade fears are hurting the economy. We'll be back. Hello, my name is Alessandro Golombievski Teixeira. I'm a professor of public policy management at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

I am a great listener of The Wall Today. In my opinion, The Wall Today is one of the best China radio programs. In The Wall Today we can get the best news and analysis in what is happening now in the world. So please, come to join us!

The European Central Bank has announced that it is lowering its benchmark interest rate to 2.5%, aiming to bolster economic growth. In the meantime, the ECB also forecasts slower growth for the eurozone, basically 0.9% for this year and 1.2% for 2026.

Referring to U.S. tariffs on its allies, the ECB President Christine Lagarde said an escalation in trade tensions would lower eurozone growth by dampening exports and weakening the global economy.

So for more, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr. Yan Liang, a professor of economics with William Mudd University. So Yan, the ECB has cut the interest rates for the sixth time in nine months. So can this kind of loosening monetary policy really work to spur the eurozone economic growth? Or what will be the effect of this policy?

Well, I think to some degree, this lowering interest rate will be helpful because the interest rate has been relatively restrictive in the euro zone. And so cutting the rate means that it could help to stimulate more investments, could also help to stimulate a little bit more consumption by making the credit cheaper. It could also help to depreciate the euros a little bit, even though right after the rate cuts,

the euro's value actually strengthened. But in any case, I think lowering the interest rate, giving the current low inflation or the inflation is itching down, I think makes a lot of sense. But that said, I don't think rate cuts will be sufficient because there are so many challenges that are facing the eurozone and they need more forceful policies and reforms to be able to really strengthen their economy.

And the ECB once again reduces forecasts for the economic growth in the Eurozone, putting the expansion this year at just 0.9%. So what do you think are the economic headwinds or challenges for Europe? Well, I think right now the biggest concern is in terms of the U.S.'s trade policy towards European Union, because we know that Trump has been touting this idea of reciprocal trade.

tariff, which means, you know, by April 2nd, he's probably going to increase tariff rate against Europe. So I think this is a big uncertainty on top of the already low consumer confidence and also the continuous weakness in their economy in terms of investments.

So now added to that, the trade policy uncertainty. So I think that is really in a way hitting the EU economy. Not to mention, I think now there's also a concern about the fiscal focus. We know that the European Union needed a lot more public investment. They need to increase their fiscal spending in a productive way. But right now, I think...

A lot of discussions are about raising their spending on national defense. And so that is going to, again, further constrain the fiscal space in supporting public investment and really help the economy. So I think that is another major obstacle going forward.

And you mentioned the threats of the US tariffs. So how do you think the Trump's tariff policy is likely to impact or affect the eurozone economy? And which sectors will be hit most?

Well, I think the escalation of trade tensions would likely to lower their growth by dampening their exports because the European Union's exports really rely on the U.S. market. About one fifth of the Europeans exports by their way to the U.S. markets. So if the United States increase the tariff against the Europeans exports, this is going to dampen their export growth. And so that would add it to the weak demand that they are facing with right now.

And on top of that, I think before the tariff is really being implemented, there's still a lot of uncertainty. And so that uncertainty is also not conducive for investments because none of these investors likes uncertainty. This is difficult for them to make long term planning. So they would usually pause before they invest.

know what the tariff would look like. And so all of these, not only the direct effect of tariff, but this indirect effect of tariff, which is heightened uncertainty, would also, you know, would both work to weaken the economic growth in the European Union. And what do you think that Europe can do to offset the US tariff effect?

Well, I think in a way, European Union needs to diversify their exports. You also asked earlier about which sectors are mostly affected. We know the automobile sector, some of the electrical machinery and equipment, electronics, and also medical, pharmaceutical products, those are really heavily reliant on the US market. So I think for one is the European economies need to strengthen the domestic demand

trying to boost domestic demand to absorb some of these products, but also diversify their trade partners, working with Latin American countries, for example, they've been talking about trade deals, also working with countries like China. I think all of these would be

important for Europe to weather through some of these external shocks from the United States. And how will this, you know, impact the transatlantic relations, especially the economic and trade relations?

Well, we're already seeing this widening, I would say, rift between European countries and the United States, right? So we all remember JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Summit, which again, in a way, it stirred up

the traditional sort of allyship between the two. The events seem to be really in a way sort of cutting the tides in some ways with the European unions, especially when it comes to the traditional kind of the relationships that, you

you know, has always been based on the shared values between the European Union countries with the United States. And so on top of that, I think now the economic relationship is also under strain, as you know, Trump is talking about tariffs against the European Union. So I think from both geopolitical relationships and also from economic relationships, we're seeing, you know, the wedge between the two is increasing. So now as the two

facing more struggles and tensions, this is going to hurt the US economy as well. And the latest ECB rate cut also came as a sell-off of the German government bonds. So how do you view German economy right now? The sell-off came after Germans moved to, you know, increase the military and infrastructure spending. So what do you think could Germany do to put his economy back on the right track?

Well, I'm actually not too concerned about the sell-off of German government securities. After all, they're still able to have very low rate on their treasuries.

And I think for Germany, given their very ultra conservative fiscal discipline in the past decades, I think it is time for them to increase their fiscal spending, especially on, you know, civilian spending when it comes to, you mentioned infrastructure, right? We know the German economy is very much lagging behind in the digital infrastructure and now lagging behind in their, sorry, AI innovations.

So I think it makes a lot of sense for Germany to increase the fiscal spending, especially in the public investment arena. Well, at the same time, the ECB head Christine Lagarde said the eurozone faces risks and certainty all over and the threat of a trade war with the U.S. So under this scenario, what should the euro do to address its problems and bolster its economy?

Well, internally, I think they need to have more pro-growth, more advisable economic policies. So ECB cutting rates, I think that makes sense, even though it's not sure when their next rate cut would be. Now, some of the analysts argue that they probably won't cut in April. Probably the next cut will be in July. So depending on, as Lagarde talked about, data, they become a lot more data dependent to giving the current uncertainty. So, you know,

It remains to be seen if the monetary policy will continue to ease, which will help the economy. They also need to work on their fiscal spending, as I just mentioned, to prioritize public investment in some of the key critical infrastructure, especially in the digital infrastructure, and try to bolster their manufacturing, inevitability, and trying to boost their productive sector.

Then I think there also need to be some policy in terms of coordinations among different nations when it comes to their regulations and their bureaucratic relatives. Those need to be streamlined in order to stimulate their domestic investments.

Now, and external externally, I think they as I mentioned earlier, they need to really diversify their investment and trade relationships. At this point, they need to realize that China's relationship would be stable and it would be mutually beneficial. So in a way, I think you should not see China really as a competitor or rivalry.

And she tried to work with China in a more cooperative and collaborative way together, I think, to counter these kinds of external shocks coming from the United States, very uncertain and precarious, and also sort of anti-growth kinds of policies.

Yan Liang, professor of economics with William M. University, talking to Zhao Yang. Coming up, an anti-China, Australia-based think tank suspends China research as Donald Trump's funding cuts bite. Stay tuned. You are listening to World Today. I'm Ding Han in Beijing.

An anti-China think tank based in Australia has announced plans to suspend some so-called research on China after the Donald Trump administration passed the grants. The move by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, or ASPI, is coming after Trump decided to cut almost 90% of funding for the USAID.

According to U.S. media reports, the American funding stoppage has caused the ASPI to halt work on China-related initiatives and research worth about 1.2 million U.S. dollars. Since 2019, U.S. government funds have contributed to 10 to 12 percent of ASPI's funding and some 70 percent of the organization's so-called research on China.

So joining us now on the line is Chen Xi, Assistant to the Executive Director of the Australian Study Centre with East China Normal University. Thank you very much for joining us. Thanks for having me. So first of all, Chen Xi, how is the reputation of ASPI among serious scholars and academics?

Yeah, so ASPE doesn't have a very good reputation among serious scholars and academics for sure. And in 2020, the foreign ministry described it as the unreasonable and also not independent or scientific. So it is not really unusual to read from many of its reports and also commentary pieces to encourage Australia and other governments to take action against China.

And ASPE today is for sure not the one that Hugh White might imagine 20 years ago. And it has transformed into something totally different to what it was established in the very first instance. So the critics towards ASPE that I've heard from Australian colleagues I speak with include that its analysis is too frequently poor with a steady stream of factual errors and missing context, and that ASPE's multi-million dollar, multi-year taxpayer-funded grants makes for an uneven playing

feud among the Australian think tanks. I take your point. So here we are talking about mostly a scenario like this. The US government has provided a lot of funding to a think tank based in Australia in terms of fabricating a negative narrative about China. For example, a couple of years ago,

They were making a lot of analysis, so-called analysis or reports about the so-called human rights abuse in Xinjiang. That's according to my own memory of the whole situation. So what do you think this tells us? And how would you rate the importance of maintaining certain level of critical thinking skills when people read or see something negative about China?

Yes, so ASPE claimed itself to be an, I quote, independent, non-partisan think tank, but actually it's not. When ASPE was funded by the Australian government in 2001, it was 100% funded by the Australian Department of Defence. But this ratio has gradually fallen to less than half around 2018 to 2019 financial year. And we have now identified

like the three sources of funding were already identified in addition to the Department of Defense, including the defense contractors, technology companies, as well as the foreign governments. So when we heard that the US government funds have contributed around 10% of ESPY's funding, that's not a really alarming ratio, right?

But of course, now we find out that 70% of its China research was actually funded by the United States, by the US state government. And the other problem is because it didn't actually review that its research was funded by the United States.

by the US state government. In one of its previous reports on the alleged foreign interference, when the report first came out, it mentioned that the funding was provided by the US state department, and then it deleted this sentence from the report and changed it to, I quote, "No specific sponsorship was received to fund the production of this report." So think tanks, they could for sure be established with USG funding, but it should be transparent

But by doing so, their impact will be much diminished. And as for the critical thinking, I agree that it's very important to maintain critical thinking. But when the public discourse is actually dominated or controlled by just the one voice, it will be very hard for the general public to distinguish right from wrong. So the usual procedure I've usually noticed will be like the ASB published reports or commentary pieces on China once. No fact check, only part of the story, but they produce a lot.

flood the market. And then many news outlets from Australia and the US quote them, which make them become the main voice. And sometimes because it's a government created entity, which actually to some extent endorsed their credibility. And for anyone trying to rebut, it bloody takes a lot of time to do the fact check and also to confirm data. And then a discourse to a very large extent will be dominated by the allegations and the speculations.

And by doing this, it actually has contributed to a lot of the panic about China in recent years by spreading the false information as well as misleading the public. So, by the way, based on what you have elaborated just now, when we talk about the scenario in which the China-Australia ties were at a low point a few years ago,

What do you make of the role played by ASPI in terms of contributing or paving the way to the situation at the time?

Yes. So besides what I've just mentioned, for example, I'll take Antarctica as an example, because this is a topic I've been following in recent years. So there are actually a lot of speculations from SB, especially that they actually claim that, I quote, like China might be militarizing Antarctica. But guess what? Actually, there is no direct evidence at all that there has been any breaches of non-militarization provisions from China.

And also the second thing is the public discourse could impact to some extent on the policy making. And I have to make clear that we don't really have concrete evidence on the specific China-Australia policies, but there are certain details on public record we can have a look. So we know that the Australian federal election in May 2022, so when the Labor Party came into power, which was led by the current Prime Minister of Australia,

And shortly before the election, Justin Bussey was appointed as the executive director, who was the former chief of staff for Maurice Penn, the then foreign minister. And it was reported later that certain documents show that the then defense minister, Peter Dunton, overturned ESPY's council of choice of

candidate to appoint Bazzi, who had been a long-term advisor to the liberal politicians. So actually from this, we could see some of the connections between this. So very briefly, the final question before we let you go. Now at a time when this organization has lost a big chunk of the funding from the U.S. government, is there still room for this organization to continue to exist?

Yeah, I don't think ASB will disappear because like I mentioned before, besides the US funding, which is a very big proportion, especially for the China research, there are still other funding from not only the Department of Defense of Australia, but we

We have already seen that at least the current Australian government, they have full determination to change the whole strategic policy work in Australia. There was a review called Vaggie's Review, which was released last December together with the government's response. So basically, the 14 recommendations recommended given by the former Secretary of the Defense of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Peter Vaggie's,

So basically, the government accepted most of the recommendations, and in some, actually, the government takes even steps further. For example, in one of the recommendations, it actually says the government should adopt the five-year so-called to provide the operating funding commencing from the 2027. And in the government response, it actually says that the government sees value in possibly starting earlier. Wow.

I take your point. But thank you very much for joining us. Chen Xi, joining us from East China Normal University. Unfortunately, that's all the time for this edition of World Today. I'm Ding He Lin, Beijing. Bye for now.