Deep Dive
What was the speaker's investment return in 2024 and why does it pose a challenge for future investments?
The speaker achieved a 99.54% return in 2024, rounded to 100%. As a value investor focused on low valuation and high dividends, this significant price appreciation makes future investments less attractive due to higher valuations. Therefore, the key strategy for 2025 is to avoid overcommitting and refrain from adding more positions.
How does the speaker view the shift from growth to high-quality development in China's economy?
The speaker believes that China's economy has transitioned from rapid growth to high-quality development. This shift reflects a move away from supporting low-quality enterprises to focusing on high-quality ones. The speaker sees structural opportunities in this new phase, emphasizing the importance of quality over sheer scale.
What is the speaker's investment strategy for 2025 regarding stock selection?
The speaker plans to focus on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks, expanding the scope from blue-chip stocks to include small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that meet these criteria. High-valuation, low-dividend stocks remain a strict no-go area.
Why does the speaker believe that dividend stocks will dominate the A-share market in the future?
The speaker argues that dividend stocks will replace growth stocks as the dominant investment style in the A-share market. Dividend stocks provide a steady cash flow to investors, enhance disposable income, and boost domestic demand. They also have a self-correcting mechanism for high valuations and bubbles, making them suitable for a long-term bull market.
What are the key reasons the speaker continues to hold China Merchants Bank (CMB) in 2025?
The speaker holds CMB due to its low liability cost and asset yield, which indicate the lowest risk weight among banks. CMB is also less cyclical and has significant capital surplus, making it well-positioned to increase dividends or engage in high-risk investments. The speaker has been studying bank stocks for a decade and considers CMB a core holding.
What challenges does China Ping An face, and why does the speaker continue to hold it?
China Ping An faces challenges from declining interest rates and reduced growth in liabilities due to the fading of agent-driven growth and setbacks in real estate and internet investments. However, the speaker believes the company has bottomed out and entered a recovery cycle in 2024, making it a continued hold for 2025.
What are the speaker's concerns about Gree Electric, and why is it still a hold for 2025?
The speaker is concerned about Gree Electric's limited overseas market presence compared to competitors like Midea and Haier, as well as potential disruptions from companies like Xiaomi. However, Gree's low valuation and high dividend yield make it a worthwhile hold despite these risks.
What is the speaker's stance on using leverage for investments in 2025?
The speaker advises against using leverage to buy stocks in 2025 due to rising asset prices and the associated risks. Leverage is defined as a risk rather than gambling, and the speaker recommends investing only with surplus funds to avoid financial strain.
- 2024年大金融板块收益率近100%
- 价值投资者，追求低估值高分红
- 2025年将谨慎加仓
Shownotes Transcript
欢迎收听雪球出品的《财经有深度》雪球国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台聪明的投资者都在这里今天分享的内容叫《2024 年投资总结》及《2025 年投资展望》来自估值的就熟 2024 年我持有的大金融走出了 2023 年的黄金坑迎来了一波蓝壮阔的上涨近一年收益率 99.54%
45 入取 100%收益率我作为追求低估值高分红的价值投资者对于这种股价上涨对我并不友好我后续资金继续投资就没有那么低估值了所以 2025 年管住手不轻易加仓是关键第一部分成长与分红宏观上
中国在 40 年前开启了改革开放从那时起中国的市场是一片蓝海这发展潜力支撑了企业大量的成长性这意味着成长与规模是时代的主题而 40 年后的今天高层提出了高质量的发展这反映出中国的发展节奏要从快速成长
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我认为微观上企业从高速的成长变成低速高质量的发展阶段就是要降低企业规模的增长更加注重企业的质量大部分企业不仅仅局限于银行在规模增长降低之后势必会出现大量的资本富裕
这是大量企业提高分红率的基础我们也可以清晰地看到资本市场大量企业提高分红率强调股息率不仅仅只是一种高层的意志更是中国经济基础所决定的投资上 2024 年综合宏观与微观的形势转变我认为投资要拥抱低估值高分红优质股
远离高估值低分红黑五类我把之前蓝筹股改成优质股就是我发现随着 2021 年后世界货币美元转变的货币投放节奏开始 A 股见顶随后大量中小创被杀跌到了 2024 年我发现并非只有蓝筹股出现了低估值部分高分红的中小创也具备了一定的低估值高分红的投资机会比较典型就是富森美 2025 年我对股票的观察
选择投资的范围将从蓝筹股扩大至中小创对于高估值低分红的黑五类依然是我投资的红线这是绝对不会买入的红线我认为未来 A 股主体投资风格会从成长股变成分红股而随之而来的是成长股需要频繁再融资变成红利股对投资者资产现金流的夯实红利股的大量出现会夯实居民可支配收入
提高中国人均可支配收入进而增加内需由于红利股具备自我修复高估值与泡沫的机制以红利为锚的牛市具备长期走牛的基础红利股时代与成长股时代有着截然不同的底层逻辑成长股强调拉高估值高估值在融资增后每股净资产
企业每股净资产得到提升支持其扩大业务规模实现高速成长而红利股则会因为股价的大幅拔高而降低股息率一旦失去高股息率又会降低其红利特性本身具备修复高估值与泡沫的机制在过去十年里红利 ETF 和红利地波类指数基金均有长期慢牛的走势
未来 A 股在红利股的支撑下将改变风牛快牛的格局出现慢牛长牛 2024 年我持有最大比例的股票是招商银行我自 2015 年入市就是银粉和价值投资者虽然中途有投机炒作的误入歧途但是最终 2017 年还是回到了价值投资的正途中 10 年来我基本上都在断续续研究银行股
可以说银行股是我的主要研究方向大量金融知识储备也是在银行股上面而研究银行也提高了我对金融行业金融投资认知尤其是关于杠杆与负债的管理这点要从银行保险里面学我认为银行是当代货币金融体系的核心经济体所创造货币的主要部门招商银行是众多银行中负债成本率与资产收益率最低的银行根据低收益低风险原则
这意味着招商银行风险权重最低招商银行是周期波动中处于核心位置的银行若周期性最明显招商银行在经历了 2021 年牛市之后利息收入和非息收入都来到周期性底部利息收入依赖于规模因子和利差因子规模因子因为货币供应量增速下降而下降
招商银行出现了大量资本富裕未来具备了提高分红率可能也具备了高风险投资的可能解决资产荒无非就是这两种方法不可能拿着一堆无用资本眼巴巴看着净资产收益率下降
我将继续持有招商银行我持有第二比例的股票使中国平安保险和银行最大的区别就是负债驱动型银行是资产驱动型但是保险公司和银行一样都是利率周期股这一点是我账户的缺点利率周期波动对我整体账户影响较大保险公司在降息周期和银行一样感到压力债券市场的账户
债券供应价值的上涨国债收益率下降比负债端保险责任准备金上升少了本质是负债 97 比资产 97 长的原因中国平安负债成长性已经不如 2017 年那么牛了是
是因为代理人红利的退潮再加上资产端房地产和互联网投资等挫折从此进入资产负债表的周期性底部不过从 2024 年来看其底部周期已经走过 2024 年进入了复苏周期 2025 年我将继续持有中国平安第三比例的股票是格力电器这一个股票是 2024 年加仓最多的股票
主要是因为其股息率和成长性依然比较好看 2024 年之前没有持有这么多格力电器我认为中国房地产三道红线之后虽然进入了另一个发展周期地产股失去了高杠杆高周转高图储后净资产收益率会不高
然而居民向往美好生活的需求没有变未来不管居民住什么样的房子都需要买家电都需要吹空调这意味着地产周期对格力的影响小于地产股但是我对格力电器的担忧依然存在类似小米这种来自其他行业巨头的冲击不容小觑还有就是美的与孩儿已经大幅布局海外市场占
占比接近 50%格力海外占比只有 10%到 12%但是考虑到格力电器的低估值高股息率格力电器还是可以持有的 2025 年我将继续持有格力电器其他股票像建设银行中国石化中原海控富森美由于持有的比例太低不再一一陈述其逻辑由于上述股票都具有高股息率的特点
2025 年我将继续持有它们其中建设银行与中国石化为港股可能会在 2025 年去香港开户把他们两个从港股通卖出从港股账户买入相等的份额在这一年里我成功地把握住市场低估值的机会成功扩张的资产负债表但是由于 2024 年资产价格的上升按照第三部分的杠杆风险控制原则
2025 年已经无法再使用杠杆买入股权资产了虽然我把杠杆与负债定义为风险而不是赌博但是杠杆的风险不容小觑建议赌者不要借钱买股票要坚持余钱投资即使杠杆也要以余钱作为担保生活上在理性消费的基础上该消费的地方就要消费
投资只是生活的一部分投资是服务于生活的投资的目的是为了我们过上更好的生活不可以让投资成为生活的负担对于宏观经济上依旧保持对中国资产的高度信心在微观经济上继续买入低估值高股息优质股票