Deep Dive
What is Luckin Coffee's unique business model?
Luckin Coffee operates with smaller store spaces, focuses on delivery and takeaway services, and leverages strong digitalization (fully online ordering). This allows it to achieve a similar profit margin (around 10%) to Starbucks at one-third of Starbucks' price, creating a low-cost advantage.
How does Luckin Coffee achieve its low-cost advantage compared to Starbucks?
Starbucks' cost structure includes $10 for rent and $5 for labor, totaling $20 in costs for a $30 product. Luckin reduces costs to $10 by using smaller stores, focusing on takeaway, and digital ordering, selling at $15 and earning $5 profit.
What role does product quality play in Luckin Coffee's success?
Luckin filled the gap for affordable, high-quality chain coffee in China. Before Luckin, options were limited to expensive brands like Starbucks or low-quality coffee from convenience stores. Luckin ensured product quality first, then built a brand and scaled operations, making low-cost strategies meaningful.
How did Luckin Coffee build its brand value?
Luckin enhanced its brand through celebrity endorsements and collaborations, such as partnering with Liu Yifei and Kweichow Moutai. This elevated its brand perception, making it socially acceptable and differentiating it from competitors like Cotti Coffee, which struggled with branding.
What is the significance of Luckin Coffee's scale advantage?
Luckin's large number of stores, the highest in China, ensures accessibility for consumers, reinforcing its low-cost advantage. Scale improves user experience and strengthens brand loyalty, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its success.
What is Luckin Coffee's long-term profitability strategy?
Luckin aims to maintain a 10% net profit margin, a sustainable level that competitors cannot easily surpass. This strategy was reinforced after a price war with Cotti Coffee, which highlighted the importance of reasonable profitability.
How does Luckin Coffee's valuation compare to its earnings?
In 2023, Luckin achieved a 14-16% profit margin in two quarters, but this is expected to normalize to 10-12%. With an estimated revenue of 320 billion yuan and profits of 32-38 billion yuan, its current market cap of $7.2 billion reflects a 14-16x P/E ratio, considered reasonable.
What is the growth potential for Luckin Coffee in China?
China's coffee consumption is growing, with room to increase from 10 cups per person annually to 100 cups. Even in developed cities like Shanghai, consumption is 20 cups per person, five times lower than in Japan, indicating significant growth potential.
What are the risks associated with investing in Luckin Coffee?
Risks include its listing on the pink sheet market, food safety issues, competition from brands like KFC, operational risks such as overexpansion, and fluctuations in coffee bean prices. However, Luckin has mitigated some risks, like price volatility, through long-term contracts.
How does Luckin Coffee's international expansion strategy look?
Luckin is expanding internationally, with 47 stores in Singapore nearing profitability. Its high-quality, affordable model is resilient to economic downturns, as seen in Japan, where coffee consumption grew during economic stagnation.
- 瑞幸咖啡的低成本商业模式
- 更小的店铺面积
- 专注外卖和自取
- 强大的数字化运营
- 与星巴克相比，价格更低，利润率相近
Shownotes Transcript
欢迎收听雪球出品的《财经有深度》雪球国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台聪明的投资者都在这里今天分享的内容叫瑞幸咖啡投资逻辑来自时光投资 Edward 瑞幸独特的商业模式通过更小面积的店铺只做外卖和自取即走更强的数字化完全线上下单等
用星巴克三分之一的价格做到了和星巴克相近的利润率 10%左右的净利润这是一种低成本优势锐性的护城河依一句话讲低成本优势加规模效应相互强化一句话总结连锁餐饮的护城河我觉得难度高于一些护城河极为明显的商业比如微信这种排他的强网络效应一朝先迟
吃遍天但是连锁餐饮不是一招先是一套组合拳比如肯德基麦当劳达美乐星巴克二瑞幸的低成本优势是怎么达成的
星巴克的成本结构里面房租占比有 10 块钱还有 5 块钱的人工成本最后加起来 20 块钱的成本卖 30 多块瑞幸咖啡通过上面说的方式把成本做到 10 块钱卖 15 块钱赚 5 块具体的发展路径
首先是产品品质在瑞幸之前国内除了星巴克 Cust 这种一线品牌剩下的就是 711 麦当劳等这种餐厅咖啡还有太平洋上岛等二线品牌或者就是一些散点的小咖啡馆而麦当劳 711 的咖啡虽然价格不贵但是确实很难喝太平洋和上岛又没法带来生活的高级感瑞幸实际上填补了评价优质连锁咖啡的空白
星巴克是生活方式是理念瑞幸是功能主义是日常瑞幸要做低成本的前提首先是做出大家认可的产品品质在品质确保的基础上做低成本才是有意义的
这一点上其实做到不难瑞幸可以做到库迪也可以做到后来的模仿者也可以做到品质做到一定水平之后品牌要做出来做出品牌的意思是一是品质要极其稳定也就是供应链能力要特别强二是大家不会因为喝你而感到社交尴尬比如早期瑞幸出来在办公楼里面喝就有某种社交压力或者羞耻感
传递出有点喝不起星巴克的意思但是瑞幸把品牌做起来了瑞幸通过请明星代言或者联名的方式较大幅度的提升了品牌价值比如刘亦菲拿着瑞幸咖啡喝茅台都愿意和瑞幸合作我理解这部分能力模仿者已经比较难学到了
这已经属于花钱不一定能做到的范围这是需要一些商业逻辑和创意的但是也许这个层面星巴克可以做到第三是产品的可获得性或者服务的规模品质有了品牌有了那么消费者能否以更低的成本获得服务这就是连锁的意义瑞幸把连锁数量做到了国内第一且远远领先于后来者
这样一来用户体验和规模优势就相互强化规模优势会大幅度加强低成本优势消费者想喝咖啡在附近能找到这是非常重要的体验提升综上所述瑞幸从产品品牌到规模优势这一步步走过来在品质和品牌没有出问题的情况下成功做到了规模化
而规模化反过来强化了品牌效应竞争对手如果想复制在锐性完成品牌效应之后就进入了困难阶段库迪就是品质产品做的还凑合但是品牌实际上没做出来或者没做到位然后疯狂去做规模化自然结果就不会好不过库迪的出现很大程度刺激了锐性团队因为经过以上模式锐性的净利润做到了高达 16%这
这让库底进一步看到了低成本空间所以瑞幸发起了价格战打掉了对方的进攻这件事情提醒了瑞幸保持合理的利润率极为重要根据我的判断瑞幸长期保持 10%左右的净利润是个更加稳妥的策略这个利润下竞争对手想超过瑞幸
实际上不可能从成本结构上去超越了瑞幸的估值前段时间郭锦衣的分享提出一个重要的战略那就是瑞幸大概率长期会保持一个较低的利润率他也直言 2023 年的利润是过高的当然这也是被市场教育的这说明目前我们去看估值不能死板的去看是盈率而是应该估算一个合理的利润率
首先 2023 年有两个季度的利润率很高分别是二季度的 62 亿营收 11 利润和三季度的 72 收入 10 亿利润这个利润率已经达到 14%至 16%左右大家都知道餐饮企业长期能到 10%的利润就已经非常不错郭也提到了这一点而在 2024 年的第三季度 101 亿收入左右的情况下利润有 13 亿利润率是 10%
利润率已经下降到 13%因此我的逻辑是这样我们不妨保守一点根据 10%到 12%的利润率进行估值动态市盈率收入今年大概 320 亿左右大约是 32 到 38 亿左右的利润实际上动态市盈率利润估计是 34 亿左右倒是相差不大当前瑞幸市值 72 亿美金
大约是 14 到 16 倍 P 如果从三至五年的角度看瑞幸经过了大量开店目前同店销售没有回正在快速收窄整体上利润增速应该会超过营收只看营收的话 2024 年是 35%左右的增长
考虑到开店速度放缓,2025-2028 年分别增长 10%-15%是可以预期的,以及之后每年大约以 5%增长的速度,我觉得概率比较大,因为咖啡是成瘾性的,综合国情,如果看日本,在失去的 30 年咖啡销量是逆势增长的。
如果 2025 年估计营收能保持 15%到 20%的增长到时利润大约是 38 到 46 亿整体上我认为瑞幸的合理市盈率应该不低于 10 倍
目前瑞幸国内开店空间已经不大
郭说的咖啡频次的提高仍然是金矿从人均 10 倍到 100 杯这个空间很大打个对折还有 5 倍空间但这个我觉得是大概的不能完全套用还有个角度是以发达城市上海为例目前人均消费在 20 杯这个和发达国家包括日本也有 5 倍的差距咖啡这个生活方式目前看来在国内的接受度非常高基本上消除了文化差异
除此之外新加坡开店 47 家即将盈利出海可能成为加分项瑞幸本就是高质评价即便消费下行对瑞幸的影响应该是相对较小的之前提到日本失去的 30 年咖啡是逆势增长的瑞幸的风险一一粉淡市场二餐饮行业风险食品安全等三竞争风险
比如肯德基推出的现磨咖啡便宜卖得不错可能长期存在整体上可能分走一些价格敏感用户不过肯德基的咖啡品质没有瑞幸好瑞幸可以服务好自己的用户在相同质量的情况下做大自己的市场份额四
经营风险比如公司胡乱扩张或者和加盟商出现利益分配问题等五原材料价格波动今年咖啡豆上涨 70%瑞幸逆势降价
这部分瑞幸通过签订长期合约解决了问题 6.股东回报现在没有分红回购但管理层对股东回报很关注投资者关系网站做得很好从多个细节判断我觉得大概率没有问题后续可关注验证以上提及股票和观点仅为个人记录随时会变不构成任何投资建议当前持有少量瑞幸粉单仓位可能屁股决定脑袋