Is This the Start of a Super Cycle?
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What subject stands were then? Bet mode, sporran signal. Live here with my friends, and then a rampin on another guys. Another .

exciting day. The start of a in a poco ballon.

indeed. John ham, happy, traded once up. Everyone I click, I missed an opportunity year. It's like seventy degrees in new york. And this is probably my last chances to where a tank up today. Stephen gets that luxury all year around by I kind of missed in my opportunity is here.

May me next week I add the iron in this tank top before the podcast, I yeah like no one is ever ironed a tank tok ever was was so rankly. And i'm like, this ridiculous ous. But you know what? This is amErica and we're so bad.

And this of this shows very important. Like that's dressing up.

perceiving his highly inform tech.

The fifth in brain decline has got on. Well.

i'm from the north country and winter starts after labor day here, so i'm fully closed up with the switcher. There's no sleeve monster is here. They're in .

ford a hey, at the street, I check check of this cover cover. Do you have the shift? I think brand and very looks like he's nearing, doesn't just got IT. Can you do everything? And you got to do the, got to do .

the thing my weekend. He's got domestic gun in everything.

He's got domestic gump. When work hard, I think you went into new brand. She's a job and that .

I got my master come right here, looks magazine here, ira chisel again.

had a look good for those girlfriends.

You send me, you send me that message today, which I stall put on twitter. But I I got a text from brand and he got attacked, ed, from somebody that was, like, are really seeing a tale of two americas right now. Everyone in the cardio room looks miserable. Everyone in the weight room looks you for reacted this. This is where we are, folks.

One of both. I'm independent. I robots. There are some weights.

it's true, a few lift weight to become a conservative .

a long time running this messaging. I'm amona sly, shocked, IT and out for them. I'd mean, who could saw that coming?

All you knew he was to get calamari served, to do some bench presses into whats, you know what, to keep their use in, to make any check.

Who are there any jack democrats?

I mean, R, F, K was a what is?

Yeah, thank you for proving my point.

Feel at met get last tag out today, the uh seventy seven thousand dollars.

six and thirteen .

dollars picker up here and let this out of my labs up. So that's an all time. I think you're really closed all time high.

No new all time high moments ago. We just keep going .

to me a lot of waiting for big questions.

Yeah, I were about twenty seven right now. We're in new hard to remember right now to be followed by new high december, which then is followed .

by new high january is the to keep going are I mean, look, let's stuck a little bit of super cycle. This is A, I got to admit, I craned a little bit when I hear someone says super cycle. Now part of that is because I was one of those people, the beginning of previous bill cycle, like twenty, twenty one.

And I was talking about hobbles dma. I was my super cycle, you know, name that branding for IT. Everyone's gonna realize that this is an asset you all for the long terror use IT as clatter use of free a treasury seta um and they're going to get fun at a hot so maybe that actually comes around this cycle.

What happened and somewhat it's like sort of like the you know the deal buts saying not in the austrian saying this is gonna the crack at the note this time, not this time, list time at this time, they keep kicking the can and down the road uh and that you know at some point going to happen with with uh with the gonna break through. So let's take a look at A A target here from a David Bailey and props David bai for his work if the political arena this year and huge success in the end. Um so he calls for eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars per bit just bitcoin called charity for the target of this bull cycle. Then to the mister who I respect very much uh in terms of his you know analysis and Price calls, I tends to be you know pretty moderate you know is not like overly bullet says that agrees looking at a new year cates hearted uh, I think that qualifies said .

what you I think yeah so I think like twice target aside, the conceptive just is golt Perry. Whatever that number might be, is that possible the cycle, I think it's more possible than it's ever been. I mean, I think what we're dealing with is you can't over restin ate between the spotty t fs and a now, not only friendly White house, but a friendly congress probiotic politicians.

The regulation question just completely the risk is completely out the window. I mean, IT is a fundamental change to valensa pe because I think the number one saying holding back most of the money is the fear of like dick coin is the same tag onic asset that the governments gonna hate and they're gona, you know, like punish. And I think that kept so much money on the sidelines.

That is removed, the career risk is removed. We talked about this last time. Like you can get laugh out of the room and anymore.

If you go to your tech company, you go to your fun, you say, hey guys, I think we have a big coin position. Maybe they don't take IT, maybe you're not successful and convincing that, but it's not like the facto laughter ball. It's not like you said, hey, what if we put a bubble gum on the baLance? Try right? And that's how people see IT.

So I really do think you can't underestimate how much things have changed. And so I mean, you know, do we get there do we not get there as a eight hundreds ball parity, who knows? But um is IT sustentation ally higher than here? I think yes.

And do I think this bomb market ends in like A A year something? No, I think IT goes substantially longer. I think there's been A A fundamental rerating of the asset which IT will happen.

What do you think about a hundred, kate? So gold parody is reasonable in your mind. I I will say if the U. S.

Adopted as yet serve asset, right? IT really does put IT on par with ball because there's no other hard, hard money asset that we are holding in in, in at scale, the U. S. government.

So just luck will gets passed. Let's say allama spell gets passed. I think that's a no brainer, right?

If the U. S. Actually are buying by coin, I I mean, everything changes.

Does that happen? Does that not happen? I don't know. I would frame IT like this prior to the last few weeks. I wouldn't put the odds at bitcoin hitting gold parity the cycle at like sub one percent like yeah really law.

I think IT be reasonable to think it's a double digit percentage now like that's how much is change I like do I get to do is at ten percent? Is at thirty percent? Is seventy percent? I don't really know there's not enough information at this time, but I do think the chance of IT just went up over techne.

John, really think about this uh, tico Price target party. Would be that the ended ball? Yeah I think I have a little about P.

S. C. As well greatly from two twenty twenty one.

A lots people talking about the super cycle. The institutions are here. They can provide a flu with Price. And um I think those calls are a little early. Um and yeah so I think that's number one. But one of the boys thing, in addition, everything you guys said about remilitarization ity nation stated adapt shin.

I think there's a actually a big benefit of what we saw playing out in tony tony two, like all the cr nonsense and i'm matting is never going to be any cyp to scamming in the future. There you always have to hit t look after that. Well, like the whole F T X C S block five boyer, like them all, blowing up in spectacular fashion IT actually very good to have that in the past.

Now, yeah, we already went through that phase. A S D F being basically been made offs like a similar magnet and traditional y keyboards. My former colleagues, dear, like got this bit thing is dead again um whether were N A super cycle like what that means for Prices that there's a lot of debate there.

But I think we may have passed the blip where the mainstream may IT IT may never be a mainstream view again to say all bitcoin is dead. Uh there might be fifty percent drops because if you run up quickly or even seven, eight percent drops, if you run up to a massive number, you could have a fifty, seventy percent drops. So i'm not when I take super cycle, i'm not necessarily saying no more.

Fifty to seventy percent drops is if we run up to three hundred four decay quickly like that could fall over the vision percent. That wouldn't shock me. But I think what we um might not see anymore is this idea of like our bitcoins officially dead and it's just like a brutal bar market and you have to be a true believer or to stay in IT types of environments. Might be at the past.

Just a note zero quick. I think there's a massive difference between a fifty percent drop and in eighty percent drop. Those are completely different things in my book. And .

yeah, I do branded good a brand. And while those cameras like problem up properly.

some light difficulty here, I like to pick apart that. Will we hit gold's party? I'm very blish. By the way, I don't disagree with what I heard. I think ten next chance of a super cycle is probably the what just happened.

But I, in my opinion, return to a military transition globally here over the next, let's say, decade. And I do not think bitcoin passes golds market cap until gold is ruled out as the potential max reserve currency, right? We still see countries accumulating goal.

I think they're still a reasonable chance that we try some new gold standard. Two point noting, I think ultimately IT fails, maybe IT never good implemented, but I think the market needs to digest that is something behind us before we can crown bitcoin as the Victor or the next likely bit during when that happens. I think gold will be in the roof your meal for essentially forever.

But here's the interest I I, I agree with you. And I think prior to the last two weeks, my my base case was like they do something with gold first like that, that is like .

conditionally just .

what what will happen first. There's an interesting thing though to the extent that like. The to the exchange, like Peter tel is now running the U. S. Government, right?

Like to the extent to which Peter till backed political factions that obviously like you know intimately part of that to the extent to which that faction has gotten control. I I think you you start using your probabilities of like this move directly to bc coin. Like i'm not i'm actually very skeptic call that you ever see like like the dollars are going anywhere, anytime soon.

That's not the column making, but some some implementation of bitcoin is something strategic. I mean strategic result, right? Whenever IT is the U. S. Holds IT central banks maybe hold that IT becomes Normalized.

I do think like gone to my head, the more power that this sort of faction gets, the the Better those odds to get. And like time will tell how much power like these guys have actually suddenly got in. But I would bet it's a substantial amount and .

all the same of the gold stuff. Like the way I look at, I don't think gold is necessarily going anywhere. Like if someone told me they own own five percent or portfolio goal ten percent, I wouldn't be like k you you know you've tt a get rid of that I think balls, you will be around for a lot of hi I think like couldn't was saying IT IT probably will get ruled out as being like the next one will reserve I said I don't think especially going away but I think it'll get ruled out and when I just think of like the problem, what what would have to happen for you to be ruled back in ah you know not golf has already failed as a monetary asset that like there's no putting that gene back in the bottle.

What what are these countries going to do? I they they run up kind of tabs with each other, right? And it's like you, me, do you like this ready? But this story already happens like that.

They you can't just like send IT across an ocean quickly. There's going to be the central clearing houses. Some countries is going to have more ability to control that. And another one you'd really saw and I get, ends up not becoming a neutral reserve asset. IT can play a role, but like IT, IT doesn't actually become a neutral is a vacillate if china holds some gold for you, but like you run up baLances so that you know some that ball is alured to you because you engaged in some tree, like you can't settle that baLance immediately. You could so you're gna have to be like I warned in is holding gold for all these different countries and like that already sail so I I don't see IT ever coming tax um but again, i'm not saying tell your ball is going to zero, but it's not going to be this neutral reserve asset that replaces treasures.

I think that's probably right. I think the market still believes that goal is the uncertainty hedge in a future military world that we don't know. I think until that's clear what the next future is, gold remains valuable, able and I think hired the equine.

I I agree with you as they got right. That's definitely still the perception today. No question about IT.

The coin hasn't got in there yet, but can I get there over this next period of time? That's that's that's interesting and that's the interesting question. We're going na see a player and I also think like .

can't overstay .

big corners just got so much closer to political power like we were way out here before. And as a result of all these elections, the fund saying the money that went in the senate races, the presidency .

like .

this industry and the people and IT like now have the ear of power is very interesting. And and I think we are looking at like broadly speaking, like I think this is worth understanding, not just from a political standpoint, from a bad queen standpoint, the faction that just got elected, the faction that just came into power in the U. S, is fundamental like a more revolutionary right wing faction than what happened in two twenty sixteen was kind of you know screw the system, you know vote out you know these people um what you saw this time is this more right wing illite um capture silicon valley financiers like intellectuals on the internet. Uh you saw this kind of much more fundamentally like revolutionary rightwing faction got in and like .

depending on the .

degree of success that they have and kind of pushing some things forward, like these timelines could change dramatically. Uh because it's like generally this fact that you can go across all the blogs and all the writing in this kind of sphere of people. And they've been they've been into big coin the whole time.

You've been into big coin for a long time. They own big coin. They are old big coin. And the idea that these figures in particular would like go to gold rather than just bring in bitcoin.

And it's also just that like people who have already gotten rich from bitcoin have influences this outcome particularly. And now those people are gonna get more. There is a really interesting cycle here.

And I mean, the coalition was interesting that republicans definitely picked up some eetes, obviously some big names. But this is again, a working class, the driving coalition enlisting and the democrats messed up by focusing too much on social issues, which you know deserve attention.

Gut, I think that that hand was well played and um instead should have focused the number more on the economy, for instance, and just more practical and pragmatic teams mixing them in I think by highlighting these social issues so extremely, you're alienating a lot of that working class. Now the democratic party is given up that demographic. Yes, to light in large fire to you here. Republic into this in a swing started with the first drink, and I think probably I have IT looked at any example on this, but probably an even stronger with that demography.

And i've seen the data for this. You're completely write. I've seen the data in its wild. Basically, the republican party this election was, like the democrats in the nineties, the one big in the working class coalition. The only people they lost were the very wealthy and the very educated. And so in that flip, because that was the republican party in the nineties and the nineties, the republican party was like the big corporate wealthy people. And the demonstrators were like, the working class coalition is just completely one eighty inverted .

yeah the pendulum swings. And you'll see after a sleep, I got, you know, I I imagine you'll see a lot of change the the right. So are they other stickings and he issues there might .

might take here twenty sixteen trump did not expect to when he was caught off guard, he did not have his duck or o he did not know he was walking into when he was okay. But largely and effective on his ambition and I think covered mostly and related things that came out of that essentially radicalize a large portion of the united states, whether it's inflation, whether it's censorship, whether it's medical tyranny, various forms of authority.

M essentially said, hey, those with principles encourage on the left, like R, F, K. They decided to reject their own party. And again, at great personal cost, change their political use. And I think that's just a symptom of the exact same thing happening with the working class, which is that they feel talk down to shoes are not taken seriously. And trump gives my voice, and I will, at exactly in the same way that bernie Sanders gave, gave that group of voice in twenty sixteen for the dn.

He snub them, right? And so my take, where is sentimental necking new brakes? The democratic party is an absolute shambles, and they do need to rebuild and figure out what their future is.

Does IT shatter into a bunch of small cowards? Do they find a more moderate repositioning? I don't know the answer that, but if I look at four years and i'm been honest from the america, we do want a strong, uh, opposition to every party.

right? IT certain. Ly, the first obama Victory there is a sweep and both houses and um clean up the hopkins wet soul searching. This is how is how works. And you know if you figure out where where americans are elections, like the especial president's elections, and then you are you know require things and the'd get open future no you you finish our gree or that you going na change to a again, yes, this one one final comment on this topic.

You know we made the point that this is different than in twenty sixteen and is also different than that an alternate of universe where drunk was in office in ti twenty. Because I think about all these people that we're talking about, your R F K J events events fly would have been is so social with the G O P by like maybe not is directly involved a the zx toi um on on buying twitter, like the trunks ts in office in twenty twenty I and a penis is B P like things just play out completely differently. Maybe he does not even embrace the coin as much because is IT was there was no need for him to do IT um elon maybe never buys twitter um arf he never gets involved like would have been involved the G O P or stamp like this particular team of people.

I think it's fitter. Hey would never have been all together. Trump become president in twenty twenty. I know, you know, the people who voted for trump.

I know this locky thought there are just like held their nose and voted for trump because of the people around him. That is a completely different situation we have today versus had trumped pants one again in twenty. And so I think that is worth knowing. And what we're gonna be washington for is if this administration makes them on its promises um in a freeing rass day one um made he doesn't have a day one yes as a rose's mother win tweet that ross kyo lid january that so I wondered he has not like conversion you know like if I were heard, I definitely won seek some confirmation like he is this action is that would be crazy to get them on some sigal .

alive .

what is it's going to be intestine and what happened the last that what he does um you know he's he can he can do pretty much anything. He wants that in this industry if he wants to do IT. I have a feeling that did a lot of decline her required. He doesn't have to worry about that for a little that uh let's see okay, so let's of the, you know T V promises this is the biggest one the the coin strategic reserve and uh lamas court.

He reduced the bill after trump spoke nash bill and uh she's out there pushing IT again and and uh you know this is he schematic here is right that you know this apps that you know obviously would be not money and Sparks a race to a game on the game theory is on IT Emily for other something things to do saying. So this is this is the huge guys. And I what's just examining look IT further.

Like what does this really mean? What happens next after that? If this happens, what's what would you need to look like, I think, to have the sorted impact that the hot is there a certain amount of the coin is is just enough to be a little baby to ten thousand travel to keep as the beginning of the three strategic reserve. I think he would need to add to IT for IT to how uh you .

know the kind of back yeah so obviously the version where they buy more in some sort of clients is much more powerful, that's for sure.

Um that's gonna .

be the harder one to get across, but certainly do a able given the way that the races have shaken out. Um but even if you just does the one where they hold the coins, right, they take the same road coins, the mr. X coins, and they hold them, I think IT just has profound knock on effects.

It's not about that thing itself. It's not about just like all that reserve rate is on the margin. That's just like O K, two hundred thousand coins of sell pressures taken off the market.

Fine, whatever. That's good, but it's great. The us. Doing that I think just opens up. I mean, the U S. Is the most important country in the world and certainly the most important in finance in the financial world.

And I think you just start to see other countries and you start to see companies enter, you start to see individuals, the wealthy, like it's a blessing. I mean, the U. S.

Doing that is a blessing. That bit tween is a legitimate financial asset that IT has value. IT has fished value that the U.

S. Is holding. And and it's such it's such a ringing endorsement. So even if we only get that, I did get super material and I think the odds look good on that right now, some from some conversations i've been having. But if you get the lummy spill and you get some sort of like accumulation A I A is hard, hard up even estimate the impact that could have.

That is not also always flying. Would be incredible for policy inner. We're going to find be that would probably be a smart way to do IT so that they deoderant by the market in the driver Price up, make a huge lump song would be I mean, there would be bonkers.

They would make a candle with the triple or make a candle after or if that happened. Um so yeah I mean, how how would you do a john, if you were treasury separate dav, I would you all go about planning a big one? Bias will be on insects.

I mean, the real way to do IT is you don't you don't tell people ahead of time like you don't. This is an investment, right? Like you don't this is investing one to one like you don't start talking your book until your position is already on um um maybe in this case, you could argue that is so early that it'll still be beneficial.

What likes and they have two hundred thousand the coin already, so they're not starting from zero. Um what you do IT without telegraphic in IT. And like you build your position way bigger and then need you say like k word, building a big rating sail, maybe you don't even say how much is in there.

Now that's countered by this is a government that we don't the people don't really like the government in Operating in total stealth mode and you know you don't want them just doing things without knowing what they are doing out. Also, there's there's some baLance here. So what will keep we'll see.

Um but another comment on the strategy. Big core reserve. You have still the same before how all these supportive things that have happened for big, and it's like near zero chance that someone is gonna laughed out of the room anymore when they say just a bitcoin.

If the strategic bitcoin reserve and A A building strategic bitcoin reserve, the U. S. Becomes a reality.

Now it's interview, like people asking a question, why do we on zero bitcoin like our own government is adding to a reserve? Like how do we not own any of this? The three lives to that.

The career is now, not now. That I could see twelve like we OPPO and ten thousand and then looking at sailor staff and they like we get a duck. We get a duck. I have more.

more big in the states. We've cut the biggest stack of bitcoin people. No, it's got a bigger stack art, 比如说 all the like .

A I generated bitcoin pictures that sailor posts like pretty much every day。 Just imagine trump doing the exacting thing, like he instead posting rockets of them as an astronaut if they quit. And and is that .

the thing to think about all of this is not about the impact of someone buying expect coin per day or per year anything. It's like if the U. S.

Buys fifty thousand big coin a year, the impact of that fifty thousand twenty year will be a hundred times greater than if some private company bought fifty thousand eight hundred year rily. Let's be really clear. That sends a completely different signal for sure.

I think we have a good case of the year with the legs of norway, right? They set up a sovereign well fun because they just so happened, everyone, to oil offshore. And now they have almost two trillion dollars in this thing.

And how many people are in norway? Like five hundred or something like that, so that a lot a wealth per person over there. And what also is issued with norway, they're pretty money from oil, and they also have taken steps to invest that money and other energy acts diversify.

So they essentially have a lot of money and they're managing IT forever. Howard, lottie, when i'm punk show, see you of counter on the transition team cover the doge group department of governmental efficiency. And he was making all these claims on how they're gonna otie uh, landscape of federal government owns.

And all these other various forms of essentially unlocked in parts of our natural resources collected that money into a swell fun. So to me, that's the the key that amErica should think about here is bitcoins part of a portfolio o uh, that americans manage and we use that for maybe bAiling out social security or pensions or future should teach your investments or whatever is. And i'd like to see if sats per citizen tight target, right? We wanted get up to, I don't know, the number one hundred thousand sets per citizen or something like that. That's our our target allocation.

Your vision is we go from social security to social cyber security. IT was the number that we .

hand a like we divide that the number sets where the number people in the world I think the numbers like to seventy thousand thousand person. Is that right? Where in my yeah it's really in my I I don't know exact .

number but it's the yeah I mean.

you have have at least that much.

Two point one quadrillions sads divided by at weary eight billion inability .

yet it's about two hundred and forty thousand percent ran hours roughly, uh ChatGPT .

is at two hundred and sixty two thousand five hundred and shoes is what i'm which is let's do the math.

Something like.

Ninety one dollar is per person at risk. So let's so ninety one times a little over three hundred million P L U S would be what you're looking million yeah something like, yeah I mean, you could do IT something like thirty billion dollars like maybe a little bit more, which is kind of pennies for united date. So you one didn't do something like that.

We spent more and our our national debt one up more than that since we started .

this conversation on this solute. O and hey, just like back to be IT, there's a lot of talk of like this helping our death situation in the strategic big r IT definitely does help. But I god, to do the quick back in the unwell mac air.

If the coins, a one point five trillion dollar asset class today, let's say the U. S. Accumulates a ten percent of that scenario talking they've got a one hundred and fifty billion right? And then bitcoin has the ten ex from whatever rug dad.

Now they got NASA that's worth one point five trillion. You like we still have a thirty five trillion million dead and that's them. It's stimulating a lot and bit going going ten nex.

So I like i'm still in the camp ove, you definitely helps, right for sure. But we if you really want to solve the debt problem, you have to stop adding to IT. Just getting an asset of creating asset like bitcoin is, is a small part of the solution.

No question yet a through the the line coming in with a payable gn like A A R gold yet .

very for eighteen and he.

Indian brows who watched the entries.

you just little little out of the opposite ot bunch people to do so, David. So this kind of small liquid policy institute, even you are a kind of summer rise take. yes. So this this kind .

of tweet made the rounds yesterday. A David cell leads the bitcoin policy institute. We've worked with damage at swan.

I know these guys there are awesome. Uh, lot of the academics that came into your detroit cross. crag.

h. Andrew bai, some of a map. Hines, all these people were kind of associated with B.

P. I. In twenty one or twenty two or whatever those guys came in.

But basically this.

the street made the rounds. And so they've been very involved in some of these conversations. And you know David saying he's feeling really good about the chance of a strategic bitcoin reserve.

You know, I had a chance to talk with him. We talked last night and you know asked me to to keep some things private. So i'm GTA respect that. But um you know just going off the tweet, I can say these like they're confident these guys are confident they are in conversations and their confident it's not a done deal. But um I IT looks like this is something something we see could be as soon as they want。 So I think there's a reason to be optimistic that the reserve is a real thing.

Sw should be chat about I think it's worth talking about David cells other his analytic to the internet and I I love these things that just like what's big point in more of a historical of contacts so i'll just read like a couple he followed up this suit with the, I read a couple being serious. In a way, we've done this before with the internet itself.

Remember that until next to anyone, commerce on the internet, a libel lawmakers were concerned that the open exchange of information would facilitate money laundering, terrorism scams and use up lots of energy, food there, familiar anyone, and then he goes on. The proliferation of the internet was a deliberate policy choice by the united states. We got rid of bad laws, passed good ones, and form tens of billions of dollars into internet research, the government and access.

Um he says more but that's even even of kind of court of IT and like I said, I love the historical al analysts um which just helps people grasps like you of this has been done before in other industries and um is also just like a you know optimistic message it's not like a dumb thing of like the governments in a stra unlike sometimes we actually do get things right and pass good legislation yeah it's a proof acknowledge that actually leaves them and all the time and another one that the concerns was that IT was going to demolish small businesses like retail. But things you know out that they're still my town is still plenty of small businesses for retail businesses, little shops, their teeth such in there all over the place. Still, amazon are goliath, but they're still plenty of those small on the buck shops out there. I I think yeah it's things change like technology changes things, but everybody adopts in it's it's the dooming gloom predictions about technology almost never come deferment yet.

So we are making new all time highs. We speak, by the way, where above seventy seven, I think we had seventy seven, three.

seventy sudden, three, I eliminate before the end of the weekend to us, be in a new date.

What if we just get all time? I agree, friday for the show, and we can just celebrate like that. truth.

I here I did.

What's this the all time night?

What you know that A D came by new year's day? What this sounds incredibly, barry, right now, it's incredible. Get out of here. I saw on another call for one hundred and sixty care, double a dely cohere to the .

end of the year pull pull .

up that a microscope tweet that timely if we've got that, there was something on this.

not on the etf. So what do we have the army in tad, that only we put IT in our company as fine.

Well here where i've got right here.

you great if you yeah um tom.

I was on T V today.

basic.

You said it's becoming clear that within trump's campaign there is a discussion about revaluing bitcoin radically higher and positioning IT is an important part of U. S. Financial stability.

If you wins in november, it's going to be very difficult to fix the deficit, which just changes on tax and spending. But that's potential probably why bitcoin is kind of interesting here because it's potentially a treasury reserve asset. And if bitcoin rises in Price, IT helps actually offset the liability, which is the deficit.

This is what Brandon, you know, we were just talking about, but it's interesting to see this coming out of time and see this coming out of potential conversations in the trump campaign because there is a real thing like, no, it's not about waiting out the deficit, right? It's not about like they're gona buy big coin and pump bitcoin. The deficit it's gonna go to uh zero, right? That's not the thing.

If they could reduce the deficit twenty percent though, or ten percent day or five percent, those are massive numbers that completely change some of these calculations. Let's think, even if this just buy some breathing room, the U. S.

Gets serious about owning assets as a nation which other nations do. Lets be clear. Saudi arabia a does that.

Singapore does. The strategic well, funds are real. For some reason, the U. S. Has not done that. If we embrace that, that does help the situation in bitcoin can be a part of that story.

absolutely. Was said the position in the intros administration that will have the lost impact on the eventual uh, whether not the strategic reserve happens is how to roll out. Is the treasury secretary of that hines? Uh, we got we have a video this canada's doesn't as well.

Take a look out of the matter pins. IT is stating that he thinks with bitcoin h everything is on the table so can be one of the most exciting things like big land is for a generator. Al, investors who post group entity crisis, having looked for this opportunities, sound on the markets.

Solstice actualised a quick look at this idea of mush. This said, although IT. Let's see, where did you? And that I did.

This room. Well, I have to find that. So let's a combet really missing a window.

Let's see. Let's speak about federates. And then after that will be a strategy.

So generally you seek this one. Yeah, but what do this to E, T. S? And i'm going to find this is this click a rack.

Well, yeah. Basically we want to hit on IT because there was a fed meeting yesterday. These are historically big things.

We don't only come across as like these obsessive trade. Five people quite, oh my god. The third talked about this in the cut race by twenty five basic points of its huge. But you know there wasn't meeting they did cut by twenty five basis points that was very telegraft. Um right now, what you're seeing on the stream is the target great probabilities for the next meeting, which is the final one of the year and december eighteen.

Right now, it's about sixty five percent, thirty five percent, sixty five percent that they cut, another twenty five basis points, thirty five percent that they keep prints where they are now they're going to be watching the bunch different things. They're going to be watching you know what what do treasury yields kind of do um further at the curve, which is little bit more in market base, the fed controls more. The friend of the curve so far as strong ky elected, those rates have gone up. Um I think that people generally thinking it's going to be like a program agenda, which is gonna some inflation associated with that. So we'll see what happens there.

Um also just hit more like entertaining than anything, but this is a some contentious of dialog because um fan, do you know kind of reporters who covered the father basically saying, singapore, hey, what you gonna do if trump just rid of and you could tell power was like pretty peste even have to deal with the son and he was just like it's not permitted under the law when they were asking him at trump wants to get rid of you um you know, well, you step down and firstly just goes no and then her reporters like, can you have on that and he's like, no. It's not permitted under the law and I have a look been this but IT is kind of interesting and odd that a president could appoint a fed chair. But then it's like you can't get rid of them.

They're like protected by something. I know there's probably some legal new answer that I assume power is aware of just because this time of a sharp guy and the hazard level background. Um so there will be drama to follow as to whether not power is the the that chair but just like A T L D R on come and drinking yeah, that clip was great.

They should have pulled up but you should like, no, yeah, yeah he was there was just like, I would like drama to yeah T O. He is certain but he doesn't have to step down if trial class replaced because they may know that dramatic for upon that. But it's basically true or he's basically .

correct congress crede. I think congress could do IT, but trump on paper, the president cannot do IT which make sense you up yeah and and IT is reasonable. But I think there there are ways to get him out and they're certainly like there's many ways over holic S A man I mean, now that's just the kind of buy the book's way to do IT, but to obviously ways to put pressure .

on thanks into the do no all good. And I guess the logic there would be the president of points congress than crews so they would run. They don't want the president to just willingly arly being like you're out, your out, you're fired, you're fired from they were prem.

They once the apprentice there like we didn't have this happening. Um so yeah no till the r for me is like the reason i'm not obsessed ve rate cuts is because, uh no one these are just like twenty five basis point moves. It's much more so the trend of industry policy and that's important.

Um but even aside from that such you meet things have happened last few years with mortgage rates going like two and a half percent, so many people borrowed and then they're staying in their homes. So mortgage rates filling up to seven doesn't have that much of an impact at an every gate level for the people who just graduate college. And mortgage of that absolutely sucks for them or may actually AR, but I like an agreed level.

A lot of people walked in two and a half, three percent. So rates going up is not like a dire thing of maria level. Same thing with corporations. They borrowed time um safety with governments even to satis that they borrowed time. So the rates going up isn't having like a bigger than effect as maybe we think IT does.

But anyway, and same thing to the other side, like them cutting by fifty to one hundred basis points, it's not going to be like some at market moving in that. Um so that's just a little bit color on on rates hike. You get to fall the drama with power and the next fed meeting is december ity.

So I think ah I think what you see is I I think trump really pushes to get rates down. Ah, I think he really does and I think he's able to do IT. And I think the smart move is you combine energy deregulation and corporate deregulation with rate cuts.

And it's a way you get more liquidity into the system. You improve kind of profile for consumers, but you also keep inflation under control by like aggressively deregulating energy production. I think that's the sweet spot.

It's threats and needle, but it's possible. So it'll be interesting to see you know how that plays out because you know if you can drive the Price of oil down to fifty dollars a barrow, uh, you're to stand. You're in a much Better place with CPI.

We can hear you, brady.

while brady, sort of his idea cooked, thought to epower. Number one, IT is a very good thing that the president cannot appoint the fed chairman, right? Is beyond is that good? And and my my strong hope is that the trump administration and does not do need like overstepping the rules changes.

And we want to build a resilient system for hundreds and hundreds of years, and that requires that should be in power, he says. An american principle separate to that is, let's say, trump wants gone and polls kind of hang and around, is not really playing ball. What you think trumps going to do is onna make fun of them on the internet every day.

I commodes a new name. It's low energy general. You know, he can barely stay awake. These meetings. What whatever is going to come up with the name and he's going to brand IT IT would be all over internet and eventually drone will step down.

Yeah, okay, you guys just not told me that my mike was not rates after forty five minutes. Feel bad. Sorry, everyone. I have this nice mike that have been talking into the whole time, and I was not even a on .

IT certain evy should I call out?

Thanks, debby. Appreciate you. Okay, uh, seven, this is your thing. Let's go and pull up. Okay, this is that.

yes. So this is, this is we're talking about for treasury secretary, right? We got, yes, he is currently being flooded. Now, when I was reading about best, who's maybe geta come in to an important role in the trump administration, I saw a little note at the bottom wikipedia.

And then in a second trumpet administration, he proposed a three point economic plan for trump, modeled on japanese prime ministers. Siza ob three arrows. Now I don't know if you guys have been on the internet much.

Uh, you have. But there's been this trump in chin's o abbay. Means, which have been phenomenal, is the prime minister of japan. He was shot like he he was he was shot previously and they had a friendship but they were well known to have like a close friendship. So it's it's funny to see this after everything that's been going on but um yeah the internet but having a field day with with .

hinza a hilarious I found this clip. Here's the here's sa business. This was a week before the planning to announce making bitcoin to reserve set a major shift in the government approach to cypher out. The treasury would buy and hold billions in bitcoin like IT does for gold or foreign rents. Es, Scott wants to get your take on that.

I been .

excited.

The president embrace of a crypto. And I think IT fits very well with the republican party to the .

ethos to.

But the critter economy is here to stake. The democrats are running from IT because they're trying to wash off the stench of sand bank and free and family donations to a the democratic party. So if they're willing to take down the whole industry because of bad behavior on their part by behavior, one .

actor not, I think .

everything is on the table with with that coin and IT. To me, one of the most exciting things about bitcoin is for a generation of three masters .

who more time, medium babies.

toast, the great financial crisis, have been looking for investment opportunities, or maybe they have sweet on markets. Fritto is bringing in Young people, is most .

people who .

haven't participated in markets and you know, having a market culture in the U. S. And people believing the markets work for them is the centerpiece of ism.

Yeah, it's massive. I mean, it's hard to uh over estimate I an it's a profound realignment that they are you know you got to look at some of these may the shim means are hilarious, but the the the real line enemy that was an amazing clip of just like they're gonna take this stance. This is good.

I really do not think this was a passing fat on the campaign trail. I think this was a substantial thing that is gonna be embraced by the party and by the trumpet administration. I mean, you see IT from all all angles. They're still talking about IT. Your red flag would be he gets elected and they completely stop talking about IT.

exactly. John y will not look at the e after stroke. Ake, sure. historic. Historic inflows read after the election, actually on the same day and then after as well. Yeah for sure.

And I think this is just like another dropped in the bucket of things that trafic people like to see and his final these E T S um that shows legitimacy, that shows dank power and things like flows. Total asset setter in nam performance, a trading valley. Do options exist on them, which I think is hummer in two one, actually, I saw that they asked the question to rare about tune as or am or was jam safety.

Those those you guys like the same person to me. Stark, sorry to both of them, but they're just like bloomer traf guys who cover the etf. And I see a tweet from one of them.

I can't remember who would actually was, but what of them said that he thinks the options on vick in E T. After coming in the first quarter of twenty twenty five? So all those things I just listed, these are basically things that show more legitimacy to the asset class.

Um so yeah, I think it's just like this, another breaking the wall that trad hot people are gonna be like this is getting harder and harder to ignore. Um so yeah, and this is fun. The wife stem of the coinage and IT going as etf.

I think that there is going to be a ton of people in the next twelve months who have never had any exposure of bitcoin in their lives, and we're gonna get IT through the etf. And some amount of time later, they are going to go down the bitcoin rapid wall in all the various ways that they do now. And they are eventually gonna say, oh, this is way cooler and just the ticker in my broken age account, and I would like to own some real decline in my own custody.

So I just the a corea swan calls IT a good, the best type of function possible for real decline holders and that this so I am genuinely excited when I see the bitcoin etf doing well. It's like G, B, T, C brought in a lot of people to bitcoin, but they were related to on size. The gtc people getting brought in in the bitcoin through these etf is way, way Better for bitcoin.

Yeah, it's huge. I mean, the success of these etf is at record levels and being new at you rarely seen a product that has been the successful. You've rarely seen an etf launch that has been a successful.

Um and it's it's gona be a huge part of, I think like OK let's put IT like this. We have never had a ball market. We are easy to access bitcoin products where in everyone's broker account never this will be the first time where we get into the actual real meat of the bulb market.

And anybody in the country can just log in the fidelity, I would say they can log on a vangy, except those idiots s block the etf. So each your l for vanguard, but they can log in the most broker accounts and they can just hit by, we have never had anything like that. I was hard to buy bitcoin before IT really was.

You had to, you had to go into a completely new world, set up your two factor authorization. What's coin base? Blah, blah, blah. Um the on ramps are a hundred x wider. And, uh, it's gonna very interesting to see how that plays out.

Wanna end them to that? The ghost member in twenty seventeen where you could sell your baLance logged in for like ten thousand dollars because the I, C, O, gains were so high and the K, Y, C, lines were so slow.

I'm, you know, is craze.

I did not know that that's that's an in saying .

factory dinner I marry me out of kept a portfolio of for shared casinos after that waiting to the next cycle and and.

I like twenty two equal. I think good IT. We've been through everything. I know Stevens got to ghost ling some corn.

So think we going to rap IT up there already past three P. M. That's serious ly flu back now and really fast.

Yeah, right. Almost now. We did start late. Sorry about starting. The guys will be Better about this.

So h every friday same time, I living in P T, two P M E T, meaning the boys here will be talk in bitcoin on sponsoring alive. So come join us. Thanks to marathon for helping support the show.

Check out the swan APP in fact, let me see if I can pull up uh yeah I want to play this little ad from from the title twins um so check out the sone APP search. Sone biton in the APP store is the perfect orange pilling APP literally like two or three minutes to go from zero to your friend of fail members first sets. Uh then i'll take IT uh from there to help you out with education I R S more to seek custody.

Uh, clubbable casa is a trap. So thanks everyone, and we will see you next friday for another session. Thanks, guys. 使用。

With parental permission, I meant, actually, how do I buy some bitcoin? Why did IT saying coming and kip up?

One point is with so going only would not be on the other is great bad scan. It's there by swan, and we'd .

like to go second suppression on Green.

If you all haven't seen that new episode of the tuttle twins, check IT out there's two bitcoin episodes is an animated kids education show h but it's also one of those cartoons is fun to watch for adults. So check that out. Good time or I guess we're sign enough.