Strategic Bitcoin Reserve | Pro-Bitcoin DC | Market Dynamics
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You, what subset fans from your host pretty soon and here, swan signal live here with my boy's brand and john Steven brand. And what's going on.

men, how you don't have, couldn't be any Better but going pumping big week .

via high sub john, happy friday with some fells, you get gold down, stocks down, bonds down, the clean up. That is what i'm seeing .

right now on correlated asset. Sometimes IT is, sometimes IT isn't. What's up even? What a what?

What are two weeks.

man, I mean, we've been living in historic times, excited to be here.

Another epic week. We're gonna stack epic weeks one after the other for quite some time to come. It's the exciting part of the four years.

It's kind of like it's kind like the the world cup or the the summer olympics every four years that gets really exciting for a little while. And a here we are. Uh the the four year both cycle.

Um what do you what do you guys think about? There's been a lot of talk and i've been a part of a conversation about, uh, what this next cycle will look like. Is this going up? We always say, is this time different right? In his last words? Um there are some fundamentals here that that are pretty big, uh, that can justify making such a statement. Uh, we d love to hear a what you have to say.

We'll start with Steven. I will do. I will do. I mean, they tell you never to say this, but I will come out and say I do think this time is different or fox d like it's the dangerous thing to say.

But you know, everything i'm seeing just shows a fundamental landtag change. I mean, there are moments in time where things accelerate, you know beyond you know what what had happened otherwise. And I think with this administration coming in, practically everyone has been appointed either holds big coin is pro big coin.

I've during a toner stuff behind the scenes from from close to some of these avenues. And you know we get even half of you know what we're looking at here with these outcomes. I mean, I could be game changing for four background.

agreed. Brandon is a different.

I think the answer is yes. Stevens got you got a cavy at this one so hard. But I pull out two things that I think they're different here.

One, I think the U. S. Essentially just directed from any western alignment states point of view.

If that covert forms in with even a small position in the next twelve to twenty four months, the numbers going way, way, way up. And so I think that changed. Um I think we're plan to talk about that later. But I also think, uh, competitive investments in the space, let's take all coins, I think they going to under perform relative to previous cycles. And brady, you let me know if you want me to go to that now or save that for the chart.

Yeah, i'm with you. It's it's not the same as you know, in twenty seventeen and in twenty twenty one you had these grand new narratives for a lot of these all points I C O bubble in twenty seventeen defi N F T and twenty one. And there's just really, I mean, you have like meme coins.

Like meme coins is the thing this time, but the thing with that is it's downstream of this by fraction of bitcoin and cropped out where bitcoin is. The institutional is like institutional great asset. It's kind of broken free and mean coins are a you know it's a casino lot we ticket, which is what IT always has been.

Now they're honest about IT. I honestly I I like that a lot Better. That's Better to be honest about IT, but um it's not the same sort of competitive dynamic.

Yeah, I think I think all that is different. And just on the topic of this idea, like this time it's different or you can never say I get I get all the cabriolet, but you know sometimes in history in markets this time really is different. And this thought that is randomly, but i'll share IT for the history fans out there.

He guys like hard court history with then Carolin. Um he has so many great shows. The one of his called and is hot blue crit for army getting and it's about world war d one.

And he points out this amazing historical fact at the beginning of world, world one IT, was people still fighting on course back, because that's how the horses before that, that's how the worse before that we're fought. But then you have the machine gun in world were worn, so the people who weren't prepared for that, you know, imagine telling them all this is different. They have machine guns.

Imagine the guy in the horses like it's never different and so is the same of um you gotta a over sometimes IT really is different. And I think in this case, that could be the case for bitcoin in the cycle. I'm in the cave that there's still are gonna big drawdowns in the nights or hood of White, thirty to fifty percent, but I think it's only after a big run up.

So I think big drawed out still happen. What I think is different is that if you get the U. S.

Adopting IT as a strategic asset, I doubt you have the litter to two long period where people are saying big ones dead. It's not a thing. It's a joke. I think that may be gard, that may be a thing of the past. So in that sense, I thin we did that might be different looking forward.

Yeah, I had an idea um of a new kind of having added into the bitcoin cycle. And it's the cutting in half, the downward, the basically the the drawdown having affected up um and so we've on average been about eighty percent over the last four cycles, Scott, slightly lower, think the last was seventy seven percent. Um so with these fundamental changes, huge, huge like resources of capital that could potentially come in the space.

So if there is a bitcoin strategic reserve and if the united states starts ying to add to the two hundred or intent thousand that he has from from assets users, from criminal investigations at saturn, um then I could see you know the nation state formal taking place um obviously downstream to massive corporations black new black rock are involved and that will just speed that up. All of that comes is pulled forward. And then I think you don't see A A draw down more than forty percent like the the the game theory will play out that all of those debts will just be bit up um you know very quickly in my opening end in size.

Um and so there is that competition, then maybe the next having its twenty percent max drawed down than ten percent as we get more and more stable kind of like gold has been when we reached that level uh of an asset and beyond. And I think you will become more stable um lower drawd downs and eventually there's no you know theos equivalent fia to bitcoin exchange. I mean that assuming that fia goes away becomes irrelevant um which we could debate. But um you just are left with every increasing purchasing power in a deflationary money.

I think people the the kind of knock on effects in the game theory of the U S. Buying bitcoin dc into bitcoin in some cats and we will talk about why that makes sense and also why people are increasingly excited about that. But just simply put, the knock on effects in the game theory and and IT is hard for anyone to Price in the sheer impact you would have because the moment the us.

Does that other countries need to do with financial companies? Bitcoin, suddenly a major financial asset. You have to have a hedge funds, wall street, wealthy families, family offices.

There is this huge casale because ultimately, the world is under exposed tubing in most people. Don't the number of people that own over ten thousand dollars of big coin, its miniscule IT is I had to treat about this last week. But if you actually think about this, IT is without historical precedent that an asset reached to this level of geopolitical influence of the U.

S. Doing a reserve in these sorts of things while simultaneously being so on owned. There is no comparison of something becoming this important while still being owned by so few people like you know gold and these different things that these are widespread assets.

These are things that you know are just widely distributed. But with bitcoin, you're with something that is very still very early in its cycle of being distributed and adopted. And so you get something like this again, I think there's a lot of reason to be quite optimistic that you do IT changes everything.

I'll take the .

overall forty percent.

I think we will see more than a forty forty percent drop down from peak to truth. And I think two reasons. One is technical being that I could see a intraday week go to like astronomical numbers that you can't even believe is real and then crashed down to eighty percent from the top of the week.

So that's one technical reason. I think we will see over forty um if we threw that out, I would say I think there is significant geopolitical race in the world. And I don't necessarily think that those are bad for big coin.

I just think that the entire world is a little place for the next period time. And so if we have a global hot war, if we have a sovereign t crisis that actually materializes, it's A I think, something like that. We would definitely see more than a forty percent drop down the coin. But on the other hand, that could be its a buying opportunity in IT be going to go up in the dust.

right? So true for you, Brandon. Let's say assume you know for a fact there's no like like swan event. There's no big hot war like, let's say, in Normal circumstances, what would you say that on the drown out more than forty, less than forty?

So no geopolitical events, no tactical.

nothin huge, nothing like a world war breaks out, like the covet cross. There's those moments, three of these sudden things, let's just say Normal market structure and sixty.

fifty six still taking the over .

o the reason, guys, people still don't know what this thing is. Okay, we know what the coin is. People are going to found on the big coin without truly know what IT is and they're .

gna pan excel again. But to me, it's like now that you have like institutions and nations and you know just pools of capital far bigger than retail that drove twenty seventeen and most of twenty twenty one. And then IT just changes the equation, right? Because the a mad lic, we still one points, you know what? Truly one points, four, seven, one point seven, one one, eight trillion other, as I know, still pretty small. And IT doesn't take a whole lot to move that. So if you have access to a big full of capital, a corporation or a nation state, then you can be buying those dips up in size without, you know allocating too much of that much of your capital, to be honest, like a small percentage, your capital.

So prediction all make is boring, a black swan, boring, like a china ban or cover or one of these kind of like, you know, fundamental scenarios. I think during the bull markets on the way up, not after the peak, not on the way down, that's a different conversation. But you know usually in a bull market, you see like seven, thirty, thirty five percent corrections on the way a i'm going to say we don't see that. And unless there is like I had a sudden event, but I think those dips are much smaller.

I I could see IT. My only my case for saying that I could not happen would be that there's just such a fast rise up that a bunch of people kind of panicked by into IT formal by into IT. And then if there is a kind of that turns on itself, maybe they're some panic selling out of IT.

So yeah, my cases, if there are big drawdowns, I think it's only after a really crazy run up. But I but I don't think it'll be coupled. Well, now i'm kind of change the topic here.

After the peat, I think after the people will not be coupled with the bitcoin stead we're not going to hear about anymore. That's what I think is the biggest difference in future cycles. I don't think there's going to be a post in twenty eighteen bear market, but I don't think there is not be a post F, T, X bear market. But I think that was really different. yeah.

Do you think will pump ed in hit the peak within, let's say, twelve to eighteen months kind of mimicking previous for your cycle? So do you think go up slower longer or faster longer?

I mean, I think a lot of IT depends on what plays out. I think great. Now this promise of a much closer embrace of bitcoin by the federal government is being Priced in. Um I don't think it's completely Priced in, but there is what is this Polly market have a have odds on uh, state bitcoin reserved becoming a thing .

I would like seventy percent right and rising IT was not that well. There's two markets that speak there's Polly market and there's calcium. The difference in these two markets is the Polly market market is by April, the calls y market is by twenty twenty six.

So just sometimes here. So the Polly market, market was at thirty percent, maybe thirty five. Maybe it's forty now, uh, but again, that's like by April, it's like that's that's a that's a gamble.

You know nobody knows is exactly how long would take to get I I placed less importance on that market, on the cosy market, which gives us the year. Yeah, it's like seventy percent right now. It's been rising.

And I mean, i've been having a tonic conversations behind the scenes with people that are you know materially close to this thing. They're feeling very good. They're feeling they're feeling up domestic .

and that's what the the polymer still you use investors, they are getting information rumbling like conversations that are happening inside the transition team that, uh, this is something real and not just a appendant problem.

There's real. So and so let's get in to this a little bit. So there's the question of like does this happen? And there's also the question of like what does IT do and and why? Um and so peppa, pull up do mat pines .

this tweet? Um I don't but .

to grab IT yeah .

it's in the channel. So um map pines is with B P I bin policy institute. Do great work and he's a good friend of mind and he had a great treat.

Talking about why? Because there is also some criticism floating around twitter is like why would we do? The reserve is just just big coining ers enriching themselves, this just profit tearing like we other guy in and make us rich.

And on the surface level, I understand that quality. I don't agree with that, but I understand that um but map pines had a great tweet breaking down why bitcoin is important for the U. S. And why would benefit the U S.

And effectively what IT is is is an argument that you know if we ever wanted to fight a war with china, like not that we wanted fight that war, but like imagine warna scenario where we need to fight a war um if you can't effectively finance yourself in wartime conditions, you have a problem and the treasury market could become deeply and profoundly impaired. Buy one of these worst time scenarios. But if we buy a bunch of bitcoin and bitcoins a lot smaller, ergo, bitcoins a lot smaller than gold, we kind of get IT early.

We support IT. IT has time to grow substantially higher. IT actually provides us with like a profound hedge as a profound safety asset that in the very scenarios where the U. S. treasury. a. Is least able to itself.

Dick coin saves the day and we have and it's not even that like once we get toward time in that scenario, is that even having IT functions as deterrence, if r geopolitical enemies know that we're sitting on a million coins and they know that in a wartime scenario, while they might impair e uh, treasury market functioning, we would actually benefit from the big coin holdings and we would have that to to wield that actually reduces the probability of war even to begin with. And so this is an angle that I think is being really undiscussed that this would be good for the U. S, not just good for bitcoin.

And of course, other people are talking about, hey, if we really embed race this thing, the value could go up so much and and I would go up so much that IT can help us reduce the the debt load, help the fiscal situation. So there's a ton of very real world, very practical benefits for the U. S.

Obviously, it's good for big coin, but I think it's good for america. And it's important that we have that conversation. And I think as this thing presented, it's crucial.

And this is the aspect that I really get from the critics of this. When we bring this proposal out, IT needs to be very clear how it's being presented. This is for the good of every everyone will benefit from this.

And and there's even more reasons why one would benefit from that. You actually can make a very simple argument why bitcoin rapidly increasing in value would actually create more demand for treasuries and help the U. S. Finance itself.

IT are not to mention the U. S. Government is giving all american citizens ninety days to front run the news. Yeah, you you got appreciate that.

absolutely.

Anyway, whose front running? Who's front running right now? And you have speculation.

I mean.

I I don't know anything beyond rumours on twitter.

Ninety right .

now or ninety one, two, three, nine and my yeah here back up to back with the nineties, make another run at IT hundred k on sunday.

Um I think people .

see the writing on the wall. I was talking with some people, uh, that I was some some of my contacts for having a conversation with some people at major hedge funds and at this hedge fund, which is a major one, is you know close to a hundred billion um all of the people on the trading floor started getting long big coin last week. So I think like there may be a big entity that's in the market.

I've heard rumors of that. But certainly I think there is a widespread people that just see the writing on the wall. They see what where this thing is headed and see how much broad adoption.

broad support.

even friendly ness from this incoming administration changes the prospects for bitcoin entirely.

Yeah I mean that this run up uh twenty twenty four twenty five thousand dollars since the election I mean doesn't empty connections ily has to be a nation state like this could just be a persistent bid from the market praising in a prob ico in presidency in the united states, not not of another but also you know in congress there's a sweep. So a bullish for bickle and probably everyone put in some bids out there. I certainly was.

I think that's right. I mean, I think that's completely right. I if there is a large notable energy buying in even in that case, I think they're responsible for a small part of this Price move. I think there's a lot of people buying something.

I would just say, number one, has been at crazy busy last ten days from my cent activity perspective, new and existing, something i've been talking about with clients for almost the whole year, have after that first run up on with the U T F rules and we hit the high sixties but the first sign um I said anytime someone asked me, hey, once your forecast for Price I was like, you know what to be honesty bitcoin could be fifty k or could be a hundred fifty k in next six months and neither would surprise me yep, now however, this plant with what has happened is just like every up, just the election, but like leading up to the election.

Trump s speaking at the boring conference, said the allow us being more vocal, or of t being very vocal, all that stuff going on, a real moves for a strategic coin reserve for the U. S. And then trumpeting the new life, be all that together now IT, he was really hard to see fifty eight. So now yeah really guy need to revise that to say to be anything between in 1k and hundred fifty in the next months and need surprised by the range is clearly moving outwards .

yeah clearly I think .

big corners need to get their act together a little bit because i'm on twitter and whenever anything happens I see all these equal accounts just tweet oh， we're gonna dump now. It's gone too far. We're going back to that range.

We were stuck in. I won't even say the number. You know what number i'm talking about.

There is a meme number where we were. I don't even say that number any more. I don't think you should speak.

We're polluting the comments with all the stuff. Being bullish is a public good. You got to just gotta be in IT to win right now.

I'm i'm very serious about sct to five hundred and eighty k again right now.

Well, yeah, five hundred.

The only numbers .

are allowed to mention or above the current spot press. All right. There is no reason to talk about numbers .

below the current. Embrace winning. Embrace winning. Be so much winning you be tired of winning. Um let's like a little bit about this uh strategic I can reserve um this is the this is the bill uh officially upon the congress stuck gov sites.

It's in the hopper as Cindy allama said uh which is literally a box on the floor of the senate where you put bills. So it's very old school thing, but this tradition, the. S, P, R, the bill basically would see you this.

Obviously creates a bitcoin reserve um aiming this is what is in the legislation to buy up to one million big coins over five years and hold for at least twenty years they'll be a bitcoin purchase. Programs of funding for the biton purchases will come from reality ating Better reserve surplus funds and adJusting gold reserves, ensuring no additional public debt is created. Um then he talks about how we're onna store IT distribute the keys called storage regular audits with chain regular adit.

That's pretty nice. Um it's all on jane. We get to watch. We added every ten minutes um they participated and so that this is kind of all the states can voluntarily store their bitcoin within the national framework, leveraging ing the reserve security infrastructure. So that's pretty cool.

Just encouraging states to uh set of their own S B S, and they can do not worry about security, what the feds take care IT. So that those the the highlights of the bill itself, I think lum's without talking a little bit more about the a part of the bill that includes buying gold. I am sorry, selling gold to buy the coin, I think to me, but what's being Priced in and the expectation is not that we're just going to keep the two hundred or in ten thousand bitcoins, right?

I think I said this at the top, but they were actually going to start buying bitcoin as as this legislation says, if we if we actually start doing that, that to me is an actual strategic, big in reserve, embraced ed for adding to IT and and that is that the bullishness. So the first time if this legislation passes, let to be bullish. But when I see bitcoin on chain being deposited into the B S R you know addresses, yeah and and then that's like that's game on like that's global nation state game, very happening.

Let's also be clear here though because there's one there's one detail for this. Um the guy's A B P. I have have done illegal and alysa on this.

And we do not need lum's bill to buy some background. We would need to build to buy as much bcc coin as she's talking about. But by executive order from their analysis, the president can start buying billions in that coin material amounts of bitcoin. But so there's the bill, and then there is kind of another conversation, and both of these things are in the air at the same time.

was just get trump a swan up. And you can just sit there behind a resolve desk, can just smash by a billion at a time.

I get the swan force for ferland on first.

Fair enough. We're talking .

about them adding. So I I presume that, Stephen, I would imply there is no congressional approval needed for trump to say, hey, that two hundred thousand roughly bickle we all land we're holding IT and i'm in the camp that just that would be in massive, massive signal even if they don't add another bitcoin for the next yeah if they say they're gonna call wherever that is.

Roughly summer between fifteen to twenty billion were the dick as a strategic asset. The wealth est most powerful nation in the world. Just told you that I that that to me is a big enough signaler, even if they can get their act together to add more.

absolutely. I mean, just doing that, it's still it's about the knocked on effects. I agree that the one where they're buying, that's the really impact for one. But even if they just hold big coin in that way, make no mistake, that will be very positive.

Do you think the U. S. Goes full in, full into S, P, R? We start taking sad as a government.

How that looks? You think that makes our geopolitical enemies more or less likely to buy bacon? N more likely.

more easily got to our and and I don't think this is like two hypothetical after what happened with russia in early tony touring. Two, when they are assets which were not really under their control, whatever in a treasuries that they own, dollars that they owned, afford of their goal, even got seize, maybe all the above. This is not some hythe posture.

And look like all nations getting a conflict, some more of assets might get frozen, literally just happened two and a half years ago. So this kind of feeds into that the stuff magazines were talking about when conflict spt is it's more likely that all of these assets, which are not neutral, decentralized assets that somebody decides, say, no, this country is not getting this warm. So the more that the potential for conflict and even just the potential rises, the more that some of looking at this and saying, hey, I wanted asset that nobody can freeze. And last time I tried that basically just back one. You and I .

want to hit this from another angle too because the last night.

um sorry, I am just .

replacing the chat Sharon Brown is out. They were voted out. They lost the reelection part of what was so, so good about all this shot. So another angle to hit this from is last night when people were criticizing the the strategic bitcoin reserved, there was there was opposed by someone at sixteen z just a little ironic. But they were criticizing like, hey, strategy big coin reserve isn't really what's important.

It's like what about these other things like and some people in china, I get of course you know like protect of custody rate to mind these sorts of things um and and that's reasonable. So the question is like, is buying bitcoin for the strategic reserve? Is that really what's best for big coin or some of these other things a more important and I actually would take this stance that I should think the strategic reserve does more than most of those things.

And here's my argument. I want to hear what you guys think you agree with me, do not agree with me. So the administration could pass a bunch of laws, and I hope they do that, enshrine some sort of protection for self custody.

You roll back bank secrecy, y act, the tornadoes, cash stuff, all of these things, right? And there would be good. And I hope that happens.

However, those laws can be rolled back by the next hostel administration, right? A law is just a law. It's not like there forever.

It's easy for another administration to come in and bully that as well as IT. Be much harder, I think, to roll back the bank secrecy act, then I would be to just start buying bitcoin. But if we start buying bitcoin, here's the thing is i'll see the U.

S. Puts in a four year bid on buying bitcoin by the end of the four year period. Some people say, well, hey, the next administration can sell that big point. But after four years, everyone in the world will own bitcoin.

Every financial firm, every country, most people with any sort of asset IT will be so widespread and so adopted that these sorts of hostile actions against IT become relatively unthinkable. And so well, you know, I understand the criticism of age. Just want to push the Price, whatever you've got.

I actually think this sort of four year structural adoption is the best thing to protect big corn Better than any laws, Better than these other things. I hope we do that other stuff too. But this is a material step.

I hadn't thought about that aspect where which which one is harder to roll back if IT does happen? Yeah, I did think I agree that in theory, it's possible a new administration could come in and say, i'll look, the last administration acquired this much big one. We're going to sell IT.

It's possible. But I think it's really hard to see that happening, especially if the the path that that I think we're on keeps kids playing out, which is the U. S. Fiscal situation just looks worse and worse. How do you justify if they do have this asset that I don't know, pick pick numbers like they started with fifteen billion and then four years later, they own one hundred billion, two hundred billion because they added and plus press appreciation. How do you make the patch to people like we're going to get rid of this one asset that's making our books look Better, yes, while we're taking on all this massive debt, right? So I think that that's really hard to see that happening.

And yet, I mean.

there is some sort of light if there is so if there is a massive drought under so transactions istra's and there's a democratic administration comes in that the senate then uh, let's say bitcoin is still in the depth of a bear market, right? Maybe just getting ready to come out of IT. You're in the timing that would mean like an extended boron because of this administration.

And then you know the we kind of throw off for your cycle maybe and we have a bear market going into like that, that would be all the justification you would need. Um be like, look, this thing is down to sixty percent. Why are we gambling with this, you know, internet magic, internet money at the u, this is ridiculous, is crazy.

This is the united government. Uh, we're gonna that crazy trump policy. Um I can see that I could see the argument being made and may be being effective. I think that there is a .

chance that apps I and totally, I agree, but I think the the the counter is like, yeah, they could do that on the government level. Bad leg. Everyone will have IT at that coin. And then you're like, you know, let's say let's say, big coin is two percent of everyone's network, their portfolio, they put two percent of their money, and every single person has IT.

This is gonna be so much resistance to something like that, like this new administration comes in, uh, especially after losing all their freak senate seats because they opposed bitcoin and says all we're going to sell the big coin and everyone loses their mind while street loses their mind backed rock you know, individual investors, it's A I understand my people don't immediately go here. But truly Price exposure and Price performance is actually what's best for bitch coin protecting IT in many cases, like I know that sounds self serving and and especially people from the outside like might think that's bullshit. But IT IT truly is when you think about IT bitcoin being worth more and more people learning IT is the single best outcome.

Agreed completely.

hundred percent agreed Prices. The best defence for bacon always has been. Everything else is secondary ary by like a order mag.

And it's also a bitcoins weakness because you know, Price dumb s twenty thirty percent confidence gets lost. People to know what IT actually is, then that's just self in self affiliating to the eighty percent. So it's it's it's the strength in the weakness.

But this is this is how a new money is, you know adopted. It's just it's very volatile that happens. I way I don't I wouldn't see IT as a weakening.

Um I wouldn't yeah I wouldn't. It's kind of you they come with the other, right? So it's not really a weakness on the downside. In a strength of the upside is like, yeah, there were two hours of the same phenomenon that's extremely important in driving frequent adoption.

So saying if bittern went into an interview and I said what are your strength of weak says they would try to do the old cash out, answered give a weakness but it's really a strength .

in time exactly yeah um you know I I draw down in U. S. Dollar Price about eighty percent every four years in the you know it's it's a leads to these giant five, six, seven hundred percent Price increases eventually. But person, a lot of people and I feel bad.

you stick with me.

you'll be drilled actually no shuttles .

to toys on this one an because I think part of the magic here is he understood how humans would interact with an asset like this if IT is the best type of money and they were given so too much credit. But I think the four year having cycle, which appears to generate formal um maybe not that we don't have enough dated to say that butt say that is true.

Um I think those hyped cycles are actually the fastest way to gain adoption even though you have these mega bear markets. And the reason is IT requires so much to get this new internet curiosity to be broadly understood, not even understand, but the the awareness of this thing right. People people have memories of twenty seventeen mania bitcoins, twenty twenty one mania that coins dead right? So you need the mega overshoe and just take over the consciousness in order to uh raise awareness.

And yeah like he celebrated. The cost of doing business like best is a big drawdown. But the drawdowns also have a unique psychological effect.

Paul tuder Jones name this reason for one of the primary reasons he went long the coin and doesn't want to sell is because in the bare markets, all the cycle past who bought the top at all, a small percentage of a psychopath who bought the previous cycles top, they stick around and they trigger out a way to build conviction. And those people become the hardness of last resort. And know, paul re.

Jones, couple years ago said, I saw this psychopath, not selling after makes four eighty percent drawdowns. This is an active, I want to own you. And so so he is called, whether he intended this or not, he made a giant called. And that is what defends the asset. And so remember to king.

remember saying, talking about that too, when he first came, and I made a huge impression on him, the cyber horn ets think he gave, he gave us name. He was the pledge. But the cyborgs nets, and was just like these these people are just have such deep conviction that are going anywhere, and that's what you need to bootstrap and asset like this.

Um yeah it's it's uh phenomenal. So I think if you have this sort of steady growth, it's gona go much slower. It's gonna ach, fewer people and you need those blow off tops and all that media attention that comes with IT to get bitcoins who where IT is now we're pretty much everybody on the planet has heard the word bitcoin right at this point.

Yeah, just one more of thought on Stevens comment about of the coin shoot gy preserved being heard to roll back and really you play the other side of IT. Just thinking about a little bit more. I'm still in the camp that it's hard to see them selling because I don't think they will own enough relative to the debt to even make that cage like there would be so much push back rough even if they get to australian and they hold yeah a trillion dollars in value of the big the hole and IT pulls back to half a trillion, right? And someone tries to make the case all this pulled back by so much.

What are you doing? Like what are they are going to do there in to sell half of their to sell two hundred and fifty billion doors of the coin to pay down the yet at forty five trillion at like what what argument are you eve making? IT did just would be a drop in the buckets. I would hope that cooler heads would prevail on it's like guys like selling two hundred fifty billion hours of equation does nothing for our .

practical position yeah it's that's slightly but I can see the non cooler, non cool heads um having announce seat the table especially after you know twenty years of trump dominating republican in politics that I was just going .

to say we think that in administrations gonna sell trump bitcoin. How long you gna be before they actually put something together .

that .

can compete yet the dances in sham bolls.

I'm looking at a Polly market right now. We've got Scott passing up to seventy three percent IT for treasury sexy. Um this is a really interesting and call a race or kind of competition or outcome where I mean this relation blow your mind whether we get Scott decent who IT looks like it's gonna be and i'm hearing um or you get Howard ltd.

Ck either way the secretary of the U. S. Treasury of the U S. It's gonna be someone that's propt coin and I am hearing more about the you know there's there's good traction there.

So no matter which outcome we get, you're going from Janet yelm who hated this whole thing to know somebody that is vocally and consciously for IT. And there are going to be in the highest kind of financial position in the country like you can't you can't overstate the impact this is gonna have. I mean, not just unlike the laws and regulations and do they do the reserve what? But imagine you work at golden sacks.

Imagine you work at, uh, which we won't hold against john. Imagine you know you work at J P. more.

and. You know, you're coming from this critical bitcoin position and suddenly the head of the U. S. Treasury likes this asset is just completely weekends. Any of your opposition?

So interesting spot best to use an american investor and hedge fod manager um known primarily for his work with this with sorrow fund management so and he played a key role in the one billion dollars fer from shorting the pound in one thousand eighty two which is no relatively famous active of financial and know what you want to call IT but um IT was i've i've actually heard about that um and i'm not in finance deeply um so he's in a running a fun rate now backed with two billion dollars in George which is is like really interesting to me since services you know famous for a funding democratic politicians .

um and he .

holds a significant personal big coin position and believes in the long term um and yeah so this is this is super, super bullish um so the head of the tragedy department so he's at seventy three percent right now. What do you think would be the like any difference between him in that, nic, is this or why do you think he's you know seems be likely to get disappointment?

Is primarily, you know, right now we're dealing with a game of thrones morale go edition. Everyone is down in morale go and IT is a IT is full blown game of thrones about appointment positions on who's gone to get them. And so you know, this has to do with internal politics within the trump campaign.

Link was the had a coherent of the transition team. So he obviously, and he runs counter fit gal here. There's some loyalty and there you know feelings um but is IT seems like is gonna be the pec and um obviously each kind of has their own background and qualifications and there's a time going on that you know where not privy too glad there. There's just been very kind of constant position and he was originally just best and I was basically he was gonna be the guy at the last minute lutnick throws head into the ring OK it's been a scuffle .

le but um yeah the idea jacking for position gave a thrones drama ending out of my logger right now is pretty awesome. I would love to be a fly on the wall or on the inside somehow and just watching happen. There needs to be some kind of drama that comes out of this like netty special or you are talking about a some kind of animation.

I would love a show that like literally just takes place in moral logo, either like right now, like it's it's it's a drama of this competition that's happening right now down there, or even like an animated show that set in the future of like some like, you know, it's like barren trump p is president and IT greats future animated drama that takes place kind of game of thrones style in moral logo some doing.

yeah, yeah, yeah be cool right over the a planet of iraq as you need to pick a new barren for the spice mines.

Baron trump. He was born for this, named to.

named for this. I would wanted to also be like the simpsons, where they just like end up forecasting so many real things that actually happen.

Um we got a clip of mr. Sailor and talking the so it's funny like what we're witnessing right now .

is such a return to form in what i'm saying is that like trumps basically like holding court down in moral logo and everyone is like jokey for positions and this is kind of out of the ordinary in our kind of modern liberal democracy. But IT IT is history ally. It's such a return to history like this is what IT was always like in the past. This is how power functioned and um we're going is weird, you know at least uncommon return. It's I I find IT just fascinating.

Alright, got to finish that. We ve got fifteen minutes left. Uh, we've got a few things we can hit, relive vely quickly. But I think this will Spark a conversation. This is sailor earlier this week on and believe at.

see, the states was built by purchasing manhattan, then we purchase the Louise a and a territory, then we purchase california and acquire taxes. And we bought aska, the next great tracker cyber space. And the obvious thing to do is to own cyber space by the future.

And I think it's a great idea. I think that will happen. And I think IT is important to the united states because IT submits the ununited states control over the future world serve capital network center lamia bill offset sixteen tre dollars of our debt, according to my models right out.

T I think it's economically wise. It's technical wise. And I get big point is manifest destiny for the other states.

Sixteen this is this is huge .

center alarm. Is bill offset sixteen tre dollars of our debt according to my models? right?

Holy moly. Okay though manifest testy just yet another sailor. Um sort of analogy, I guess for bitcoin um was the idea that americans were um destined by this obvious you know um sort of power or in a lot of ways lake by god to conquer the west um and that that was basically idea.

We're going have a bunch of your pioneers out in the west. This is manifest destiny. We need to go do this is part of our destiny. Uh same thing here, right? This is just the inevitability of bitcoin is what he's talking about uh and it's another good analogy.

Gy, I think a lot of people, especially a in his generation, will appreciate that one um and it's it's the money that will take over all money is the asset that will take over all other assets and be superior to all of them. And this is just between destiny. So I love that part.

Sixteen trillion dollars, uh, the dead knowns went thirty something, thirty four trillion dollars, I think and it's just, you know, growing extremely fast. But sixteen trillion dollars is A A lot a lot more than I thought I would be. So what's A A million bitcoin? And then he's probably expecting IT pricing IT out for years .

call IT million bitcoin, five percent of big coin. It's really more because a lots loss but call IT five and so bitcoin would have to be sixteen trillion times twenty so you know two hundred and thirty two trillion yeah um which would be like a hundred acts from here. So he's he's modeling in on basically like a one .

hundred x three hundred dex from government interacts yeah roughly because you go from one point seven to three hundred and twenty. So yeah that's doodle.

Definitely doable. Sailor had modeled, I think he did twenty one year time frame. Uh, on purpose, of course, really did his own microstrip gy conference is sock in the year twenty forty five at twenty one year outlooks. So when lisa on C B C, according to his models, i'm assume he's talking about a time ring that's like close to county years out there OK.

that makes sense if it's thirty million, a coin that definitely would would IT make sense in the bill does say hold. They will huddle for at least twenty years in the bill. So that's pretty cool.

First total of twenty years. Um in order to undo that, you would either have to be there have to be a successful um like event in the court court decision against IT. I don't think it's on constitutional, so don't think that would happened.

The only other way to do IT would be to pass a build to undo this one. Um so yeah are definitely hurdles in place to to have to to undo and sell the strategic big in reserve. The law will get a hold up.

For twenty years i've been visioning like the opposite. We have the dead ceiling debates. Now it's like, hey, we set this limit on ourselves, but we we debate, we have this shot, song and dance and we end up going through IT.

And actually in the future, it's like we actually had here to a date when we hold the vito's. But then there's a huge debate over likes and and this is a new way where actually does appreciate to a massive number. And then it's like I we passed the day where we can actually use some of that. Imagine politicians being like, this is what i'm going to use some of the bitcoin strato preserve for. Um it's just kind of wild to think about them debating that versus how much death should we add next year.

Yeah love that for IT as long clarification, brady uh it's thirty .

six trillion .

for that. A couple ilo .

among it's not and so IT be .

sixteen million of coin. I just got the number of so he he's basically saying it's gonna reach sixteen million .

coin yeah for sixteen trillion that makes sense.

Well um and that's just on the bitcoin Price appreciation. What happens if we lean in the bitcoin that generates more economic growth outside of simply pumping the current Price, right? I think we all believe that bitcoin, something closer to a bitcoin standard, would have other positive effects to the economy and society. And so we probably don't even need maybe what half of those gains we can make up elsewhere. So even if the coins fifty percent less than what he assumes, I think we would still have that same economic .

impact right face over .

twenty years .

to a long time the long time yeah that smart. I have a little fun and take look at a oh ah this is a brand so we are talking about inevitability um and algorithmic curves. H brands got this provocative tweet out there when you tell us why this might happen, why this how this could happen.

How this treat up is I was as bull posting like everyone else this week yeah then I blew up the man ahead to actually think about IT. And after thinking about IT, I would probably give this a twenty percent chance of being true. So let's start with my actual position. That's what I think is true um in order to go from that from one hundred k to one million and fifteen months, that would definitely require all these things to line up that we described. So a nation state formal sobbing wal funds corporate formal uh just upon the all over the place for a year state um so I think it's possible but eighty percent chance no um but really what I was trying to get out here is trying to illustrate gradually then suddenly and I liked the poetry of the fifteen months versus fifteen years. So um I think it's roughly accurate though I think once we had the elbow of this curve, um we should see growth df or previous shirts um go with the log chart of cake in sense existence is not that hard to think we overshoot on this round.

Um until you does my take.

I think it's reasonable math. I mean, if we get some of these outcomes, I I really think to solve bets off, you get the reserve, you get some of these things and it's just it's off to the race is it's the world's of biggest catch up trade.

Are you onna? Wait for the dip. No, you not.

Not again, the dip. The U S. Is stacking sets like get with IT and .

that's a twenty trillion dollar market cap roughly. It's a large number. But I I think the coins equal librarian Prices tired than let .

me size this twenty trillion, right? That's that coin. And even you'd really say seventeen but twenty trillion, that is less.

That is two thirds of the value of all the residential real state just in the U. S. Not including commercial like is a big number for sure. But it's not like insane like you know, let me see if I can get some other numbers to size that, but it's reasonable or .

it's a moving target to right? Like Prices and dollars of everything are going up as well. So it's like not gonna be the exact same purchasing power that we're visiting IT today. If you say want big is million dollars, it's not going to be what a million dollars can buy you today so that that that helps the Price appreciation at at least not online.

Yeah, I just got estimated about fifty trillion for all the U. S. Real estate. So you up less than ha, according to wikipedia.

if you add .

up all the U S. Is financial assets or all assets are in, not just financial us. To three thousand, two hundred seventy .

trillion.

things reasonable.

I think us on nine hundred trillion is the estimate for assets globally, which is a little crazy just because one that increases a bit more. We're all going to have to get used to using the word quadrillion.

That's not really a word that .

any of us use on a regular basis, but it's the only time I ever use that is when I tell people how many stores there are. Yeah two point one could really insinuation yeah let's take a look at oh yeah the more common before we go .

to that bring context to numbers were like kind of place in number ah you always remember obama's big tarp bailout. Yeah, that was the biggest number ever. People couldn't believe IT.

And eight hundred billion .

is one hundred million.

See that's that's how 下 billions yes， yeah. It's still a tiny .

number compared today. We look at the bills we pastor in cobo, like the inflation reduction act. We sent seven hundred million to rehabilitation robbins with the formed wings in the upper middle st region. Yeah OK like with your mark seven hundred. And what are you whatever you want to .

do a whole other show on this but the uh it's just the politic political system is so messed up because there's so much money in IT and all of these little things are favors to two dollars you know that's what like family members or something like that um you know in those little ones they add up um but the the real problem is in this is what archa junior wants to address this.

You know when you basically own like policy development for your industry, whether that be farmer or food as a couple of examples, uh that's how you end up getting this completely unhealthy stuff because it's cheap for them to throw this sludge into you know the cereal um in the drives of their profit margins. So it's worth than you know donating one hundred million dollars across the bunch of candidates so that they can get these, you know, these regulations changed and be able to feed the united states fletch rates. This is how all of this happens, and it's just all controlled by big money.

Read, read, republic lost. If you wanna go down that rapper hole, what's sent me down the river haul IT was right around occupy wall street times so like two thousand and eight two thousand nine when bitcoin in network started um coincidentally or not um ends IT goes into how like how do you get republic back you know how can you get IT back from this you know corrupted political process anyway that's a whole the topic I love uh you know thinking about IT. But it's maybe it's something that we can actually address now with them the president who likes to kind of turn less system upside down in drastic change.

I me that's what I would take. You would take massively drastic change in the way that our elections are run. Um anyway, let's a let's pick a quick look at sad Peter ship.

This is the gold shirt from from one in ten from the time that bitcoin had A A treating Price um all the way down to now and there is that there is a nice that to run up gold gold kind of got ahead a bit going there for a little while um and now here we are there's a big dump. Uh this this is a month, the chart. Uh, so how how is now?

He's asking if he can attend the one of key party. Thought I was actually pretty unna. He.

he's prety funny sometimes. So here's but cool here, right? Because you can do this thing, or if you chart from the dawn of bitcoin, everything looks like nothing comparison to a because its early Price performance was so large.

But what's really notable here, you take IT from the peak in twenty seventeen, right? So you bought IT at twenty k seventeen IT was aren't uber early? You didn't buy IT at one dollar and and I mean, you you still gain tremendously against gold or so .

it's like this is a log here. So I mean.

yeah we got yeah I mean, that's a master. If you're looking at like maybe point zero six, point zero seven downtown, almost point zero two six, if you won at the top of twenty seventeen out.

So anyway, um gold were coming for you were well on the way also one percent there one showed out to gold a .

kind of time in the john's comment earlier which was that he's .

going down .

sim multi eus is big coins going up right? And so I think it's a Better uh, genome or would be bitcoin, our side would be gold. So on pricing bitcoin in gold rather than fia .

because smelting ice cue, yeah I think it's Better person something on this.

So I, I, I, I, I responded to a comment on twitter about this, but people are often say this thing like bitcoins not going up. Dollars are going down. And that can be true in some cases.

But in this scenario, bitcoin is literally going up. Like that is not what's happened. There is a massive repricing of bitcoin happening like the U. S. Dollar did not inflate forty percent on the last month, right? Like you're having something change in bit in bitcoin can go up because the dollar goes down, but they can also go up just because IT goes up .

yeah in big when he has our pace inflation. So that be clear about that one more you know IT looks be sad for one of our former competitors. This is the eat chart uh party Lewis posting IT uh cyp t has been a long con, especially a theory um headdresses once a theory, an fully collapses the death death of crypto will be near in the coin will be much easier for people to understand and this is a good point the crypto has made its so much harder to educate market by going then uh it's it's just it's literally given the in a bad name um and that is changing this is this is very satisfying to see to me personally um and yeah I just love how this like somebody tried to pump IT up and reverse the trend and just got nuke right away.

I mean astonishing that and on paper the trump win should have been bullish. Ed, for a syria in some ways you can make an argument like, well actually the only way a theory um was gonna IT was like regulatory capture and keeping salona out of the etf but you know that the side IT should have been good IT should have been like, oh, all the clipped those stuff does well defy the block and and IT pumped after that and it's got completely retraced. I mean, if I am, is really in a rough spot here.

You guys just alerted me to the fact that it's high. I just looked at the one year chart. I seemed that the theory um had a high earlier this year. I was mistaken. There's high was back in twenty twenty one around forty eight hundred and change against coin no just just its nominal heart was one bleeding out against thirty five percent percent all time so big in being at ninety k truck getting elected for cyp to regime not even that has been enough to get a theory um to an all time high yeah on if we go back to december twenty twenty wasn't .

that also the case bitcoins firing at all time high mode eat is totally still dead aren't have a check up but I I do remember this leg happening every single time and then we all get over confident and then somehow gambler come back in the market in the sing raps yeah I think there's a chance of theory um still does red than all the other ship records, just like every other cycle.

However, I think this is the first cycle with alternatives for that market segment to participate in so they can go punt microstrip gy options. They can go due N F ties on the coin, pythian narratives in shambles. So using the chain isn't as good as maybe IT once was an upstart to have no decentralizing or a Better experience. Um so east kind of a caught in the middle but I think you just to ute where the gambler is go, that's more or less might take away .

there's oh sorry.

good pretty much you d delete where the gambling goes and some of the gambling is now in bitcoin land. H simultaneously, the one more point in the product coincides all the energy around IT as being a financial asset. IT really does differently between this tech B C, saudi equity play that we might call crip jal.

Yeah, there's also mean coins now, which there is a redeeming factor in that they don't pass enough and pass themselves off something but not it's just a min coin. It's just a again, it's just gambling um and that's that's what IT is all these other crypto market, you know here's IT is like bitcoin and we've improved this part or we can do all these contracts and here's our scheme of like how complicated and thus you amazing know this thing must be when really is just pumped m coin uh and all that stuff is bullshit and if they're lying to you at least with a mean coin, it's like, okay but you know it's just a bit like I so I I thought I would prefer to get all the stuff that's lying about bitcoin out of here and just have IT you have the gambling .

coins yeah and one other change uh, two things actually. First ban, if you're a long sleeves, your short bitcoin hate the brake, too. So in previous bull markets, like coin base was the on boarding platform, right? And so people came on the coin days.

They bought the coin, and then coin base up, sold them in the tones of other crip dose. In this bull market, the spot, T, F are huge, one of the on boarding platforms. And once you provide the spot T, F, there's no doge coin T, F, you don't rotate.

The money stays in there. And so I think would drove this dynamic and a lot of these other cycles was that the money rotated. All that money, all those billions going into the sport. Tf, that is not rotating.

That's a fair point. That end, as I look at the screen of a all coin nonsense, i'm so amazed at the fact that dog point has a fifty five billion dollar market.

Those like, uh, you know with with elan and the the department of government efficiency and everything like that, that do he's always wanted didn't mean that thing to the moon. And so he's going to is gonna happen. The dog coins going to be the first currency on mars.

Market market means and gambling hard hard to get away from that .

yeah is like the funniest staying is usually the outcome or something like that.

Um one more one more knocked on that your points even about not having chickies to gamble once around the etf platform a as a email marketer for a long time, I keeping I on our competitors right as one does. And yes, our competitors send like come rockets at all time high to the entire coin base list every superball market.

So yeah I think in the fact .

not only this coin base, uh a charge to high fees and whatever, we can not come for service that so hard. They they market your grammar come rocket at the .

beat about that. Think about that. You should probably use one. We don't do that shit. alright.

Will we will treat your grandmother with respect and will send education that he can understand and will help you orange kill her. Uh, in speaking of which the swan APP is the best way to orange for someone. We spent the bear market building this thing.

The on boarding experience with the swan APP is absolutely redial to two or three minutes like you can you can some people get go from in one minute from like you know K Y C at a bank account buying sets in one minutes. So only on average, just like two or three minutes. Um you can stand next to your grammar and you can pull out phones or slow bickle and start buying your first seat in like three minutes and then shall be a receiving budget education.

So I think I think that are the swamp experience is like way to on board someone. You should check that out if you don't have a sone account yet. Do if yourself think h john and Stephen going to hop off to go sling some corn and will end up with a fun little video about about the swamp.

Oh, end we do this every friday the four, the four of us, uh, and will be back next friday, are always talking about bitcoin and what's going on. If you enjoy the show, maybe you joined late, you can find the podcast, uh, in your podcast search, swan signal uh, the replay will be on youtube and on twitter as well, so you can search this one bitcoin youtube channel and submit there lots of awesome stuff that gets put out there. Shut out to um the manager director content uh hardly I know you're watching, but you do you do in killer work um so check out want you to one signal podcast sone APP and um we'll see you. I'll see you next week thanks. So .

future, here I come on. Max does no turning back now. OK do I have everything I need?

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