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cover of episode Ep 457: What You Need To Know About the 2025 Economy

Ep 457: What You Need To Know About the 2025 Economy

2025/1/8
logo of podcast HerMoney with Jean Chatzky

HerMoney with Jean Chatzky

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Jean Chatzky
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Kathryn Edwards
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Kathryn Edwards: 疫情对经济的冲击持续存在,造成了当前经济的不确定性。疫情导致的封锁、人口迁移、储蓄增加以及供应链中断等影响,远远超过了疫情本身。这种经济冲击使得我们无法迅速恢复到正常状态。美国经济在2020年单月失去了2250万个工作岗位,失业率一度接近20%。尽管经济复苏迅速,但美国经济并不适合快速变化。我们就像一艘在风暴中航行的巨轮,虽然最终会渡过难关,但已经受到了深刻的影响。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is there significant economic uncertainty heading into 2025?

The uncertainty stems from the long-lasting effects of the pandemic, including supply chain disruptions, job losses, and economic shifts, combined with the upcoming presidential transition and President-elect Trump's unpredictable policy priorities.

What are the structural economic issues in the U.S. that have persisted since the 1980s?

Since the 1980s, the U.S. economy has experienced growing income inequality, with top earners seeing much faster income growth than the bottom half. Key goods like housing, healthcare, and college have become increasingly unaffordable for most Americans, creating widespread economic instability.

What is the economic impact of tariffs according to economists?

Tariffs are considered economically destructive because they increase consumer prices and create unpredictable ripple effects. For example, tariffs on one product can lead to price hikes on related goods, and they often provoke retaliatory measures from other countries, complicating trade relations.

Why is childcare considered a market failure in the U.S.?

Childcare is a market failure because the private supply is neither affordable nor adequate to meet demand. High costs and limited availability make it inaccessible for many families, particularly those earning less than $50,000 a year, leading to a growing reliance on informal or subsidized care.

What is the predicted GDP growth for the U.S. in 2025, and what does it indicate?

Wall Street analysts predict U.S. GDP growth adjusted for inflation will be slightly over 2% in 2025, indicating a modest economic slowdown but not a catastrophic one. The economy remains cyclical, with expansions and contractions being a normal part of its trajectory.

What advice does economist Catherine Edwards give for managing personal finances in uncertain times?

Edwards advises focusing on controlling what you can, such as managing spending habits, improving credit scores, and maintaining a diversified investment portfolio. She emphasizes long-term financial planning over short-term market speculation to build stability and resilience.

Chapters
The pandemic had a significant and lasting impact on the US economy, creating a lingering sense of uncertainty. The extreme nature of the economic shock makes a quick return to normalcy impossible. This, combined with decades of structural inequality, contributes to current economic anxieties.
  • Pandemic's economic reverberations lingered far longer than the pandemic itself
  • U.S. economy shed 22.5 million jobs in a single month in 2020
  • Economic problems have 40 years of antecedents, rooted in structural instability and inequality since the 1980s

Shownotes Transcript

Welcome to 2025! It’s a New Year and it’s also a Presidental transition year which means we’re all wondering where things may be headed this year economy-wise. A little trepidation is always expected anytime a new President is due to take office, but Americans are feeling especially uncertain about how President-elect Trump’s decisions may have a ripple effect on our personal economies. 

Kathryn Edwards), PhD Economist shares how the US economy is really doing and what it could mean for our wallets in 2025.

CHAPTERS:

**04:00 **The lasting economic reverberations from the pandemic

06:00 Structural economic inequality in the U.S.

11:00 The economy’s cyclical nature

14:00 Advice for investors

17:00 The economic impact of tariffs

**22:00 **The childcare market failure

TAKEAWAYS:

  • The pandemic's impact has left a long-lasting imprint, contributing to current economic uncertainty.

  • The challenges Americans face are rooted in decades of structural economic inequality dating back to the 1980s.

  • Tariffs increase consumer costs and create unpredictable economic ripple effects.

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