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cover of episode Generative Quarterly with Semil Shah: Seed Markets, Vibe Coding, and the Flappy Bird Effect

Generative Quarterly with Semil Shah: Seed Markets, Vibe Coding, and the Flappy Bird Effect

2025/4/10
logo of podcast Generative Now | AI Builders on Creating the Future

Generative Now | AI Builders on Creating the Future

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Michael Mignano
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Semil Shah
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Michael Mignano: 我观察到疫情后纽约的科技人才流入增加,但AI的兴起和湾区的高薪使得人才回流湾区。 关于洛杉矶,我认为硬科技和太空科技在当地发展迅速,但规模相对较小。 我注意到游戏产业的兴起,特别是结合AI的休闲游戏,这可能是未来消费科技发展的一个重要方向。 关于种子轮投资,我注意到估值越来越高,这给投资策略带来了挑战。 大学文凭的价值正在受到挑战,在线学习资源的丰富使得人们可以获得更多的知识和技能。 Semil Shah: 我认为纽约在疫情后吸引了很多人才,但随着AI的兴起和湾区高薪的吸引力,人才流向又发生了逆转。 我同意游戏产业,特别是结合AI的休闲游戏,可能是未来消费科技发展的一个重要方向,这与早年iPhone应用商店的休闲游戏热潮类似,历史总是惊人的相似。 AI工具降低了软件开发门槛,人们可以快速开发并发布应用,这催生了新的创业机会,这与“氛围编码”游戏的兴起有关。 在AI时代,种子轮投资面临估值过高的问题,如何调整投资策略以适应高估值环境是一个挑战。我们更关注团队和人才,投资策略是关注那些并非纯粹AI的公司,并关注非AI领域中使用AI的公司。 一些种子基金正在尝试更早期的投资阶段,例如参与加速器项目,以寻找更多投资机会,但我更喜欢通过人际关系而非批量化方式寻找投资机会。 我不会过度关注OpenAI对初创公司的冲击,因为优秀的创业者会提前预见到潜在风险并做出应对。A轮投资的门槛正在提高,投资者更关注快速增长的公司,但我担心一些公司为了追求快速增长而牺牲了营收的可持续性。 在AI应用领域,自筹资金与风险投资各有优劣,选择取决于创业者的具体情况和目标。风险投资的优势在于提供前期资金支持和专业指导。 我个人认为大学教育的必要性正在下降,但一些非学术方面的益处仍然存在。 目前种子轮投资领域没有被忽视的趋势,因为各种投资策略层出不穷,一些基金,例如Spark和Union Square Ventures,在早期就识别并投资了一些非主流领域,这些基金的投资组合可以作为参考。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

History may not repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. Vibe coded games, like a flight simulator from @levelsio, are reminiscent of early iPhone app store games like Flappy Bird and Paper Toss. How else are consumer tech cycles evolving? Lightspeed Partner Michael Mignano welcomes back investor Semil Shah for their quarterly check-in. They talk about the landscape of VC seed investing, the impact of AI on tech hubs like New York, LA, and the Bay Area, and whether accelerators like Y Combinator still have the same edge?

Flight Simulator: fly.pieter.com)

Episode Chapters:

(01:22) LA vs NYC Tech Scenes

(02:54) AI's Geographic Pull

(05:37) Gaming as Future Consumer Tech

(08:35) Vibe Coding

(17:40) Seed Investing in the AI Era

(25:13) The Series A Crunch

(36:03) Rising Series A Standards

(41:14) Bootstrapping vs VC for AI

(45:26) Value of University Degrees

(55:32) YC's Expanded Cohorts

(57:52) Overlooked Seed Trends

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