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cover of episode Prepare for a ‘technology supercycle’, with futurist Amy Webb

Prepare for a ‘technology supercycle’, with futurist Amy Webb

2024/12/12
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Amy Webb: 我从早期对移动技术的观察开始,就对预测未来产生了浓厚的兴趣。我预见到互联网的未来将更加分散,内容的传播将从一对多转变为多对多。我的职业生涯并非规划好的,一次考试的失败让我不得不重新规划,最终走上了预测未来的道路。我创立的未来今日研究所专注于战略预测,帮助企业和政府进行长期规划,并识别潜在风险。我们发现人工智能、先进传感器技术和生物技术是三大塑造未来的通用技术,其融合将产生巨大影响。先进传感器技术无处不在,收集大量数据,而生物技术可以革新肉类生产方式,提高效率并改善环境。这三种技术的融合将带来新的可能性,例如合成肉类和新型材料的生产。为了让领导者接受新的思维方式,需要用更直观、更贴近现实的方式来呈现信息,并提供数据支持的证据来增强信心。单纯的监管并非最佳方案,因为监管往往滞后于技术发展。我提出了一种基于数据信任的框架,以促进数据共享和公平竞争。在寻找解决方案时,要跳出固有思维,借鉴其他领域的经验。 Jeff Berman: 作为节目的主持人,我与Amy Webb探讨了关于未来预测、技术发展以及企业如何应对未来挑战等话题。我引导Amy Webb分享了她对技术超级周期的看法,以及如何将她的预测应用于实际的商业决策中。我们还讨论了政府在规范新兴技术发展中的作用,以及如何平衡创新与风险。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

How did Amy Webb's early experience in Japan shape her future career as a futurist?

Her time in Japan exposed her to advanced mobile technology, which she saw as a glimpse into the future of distributed internet and many-to-many content sharing, leading her to pursue a career in predicting technological trends.

What are the three general purpose technologies shaping the future according to Amy Webb?

The three general purpose technologies are artificial intelligence, advanced sensor technology, and biotechnology. These technologies are converging, creating a flywheel effect where improvements in one lead to advancements in the others.

Why does Amy Webb believe that biotechnology is relevant to industries beyond healthcare?

Biotechnology can impact industries like food production by enabling synthetically produced meats and new materials, such as nitrile gloves, which can be printed instead of extracted, addressing supply chain issues and environmental concerns.

What is the 'technology super cycle' that Amy Webb discusses?

The technology super cycle refers to the convergence of artificial intelligence, advanced sensor technology, and biotechnology, where improvements in one technology drive advancements in the others, creating a cycle of innovation with profound economic impact.

How does Amy Webb suggest organizations prepare for the future?

Organizations should develop foresight capabilities by tracking signals and trends, differentiating between what's trendy and what's a true trend, and mapping out scenarios based on uncertainties. They should also benchmark themselves against other industries to find new opportunities.

Why does Amy Webb argue against heavy-handed regulation in the tech sector?

She believes that traditional regulation is often reactive and may not account for the rapid evolution of technologies like AI and biotechnology. Instead, she suggests alternative frameworks that compel companies to make responsible choices without stifling innovation.

What personal and professional excitement does Amy Webb have for the year ahead?

Professionally, she is excited about the unpredictability of the future and the new opportunities it presents. Personally, she is looking forward to participating in the Unbound gravel race in Kansas, a challenging cycling event.

Chapters
Amy Webb shares her journey from envisioning future technologies in Japan to founding the Future Today Institute, emphasizing the importance of strategic foresight.
  • Amy Webb's career as a futurist began with early insights into mobile technology in Japan.
  • She transitioned from journalism to strategic foresight, founding the Future Today Institute.
  • The institute focuses on long-range planning and disruption for global organizations.

Shownotes Transcript

As the founder and CEO of the Future Today Institute, Amy Webb helps global companies and governments see what comes next. She’s an expert in strategic forecasting, NYU business school professor, and popular author and speaker on tech and trends. She sat down with host Jeff Berman to share her insights on how every business can better prepare for the future.

Check out Amy Webb's latest tech trends report) to go deeper on the topics discussed in this episode.

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