cover of episode What cards does China hold?

What cards does China hold?

2025/4/17
logo of podcast The Briefing Room

The Briefing Room

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Damien Ma
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David Henig
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Isabel Hilton
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Rana Mitter
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Damien Ma: 我认为中国政府对特朗普的贸易政策感到既惊讶又有所准备。他们起初认为特朗普政府可能会带来贸易冲击,但由于一段时间内没有发生什么事情,这让他们感到意外。他们试图与美国进行对话,但最终特朗普还是启动了关税措施。中国经济在关税宣布之前呈现出好坏参半的局面,政府采取了刺激措施。中国经济面临通缩和去杠杆化两大弱点,房地产市场崩盘是政府为抑制泡沫、转向新的增长模式而采取的政策结果。中国的失业率问题严重,官方数据不可靠。中国对美国的出口额巨大,但对世界其他地区的出口额更大。中国很难用其他市场取代美国市场。对中国经济而言,关税造成的损害是巨大的。中国政府需要采取大规模刺激经济的措施,但这次应对关税会比之前更困难。 Isabel Hilton: 我认为中国对特朗普的关税采取了有预谋的报复行动,这既关乎国家尊严,也是经过深思熟虑的策略,目标是美国经济的脆弱部门。中国认为与美国的贸易对抗处于势均力敌的状态,美国在贸易战中搬起石头砸了自己的脚,中国将从贸易战中变得更强大。中国将坚持在贸易战中的强硬立场,可以通过限制战略矿物出口来伤害美国经济。 Rana Mitter: 我认为中国正在寻求与其他国家建立伙伴关系以对抗美国,试图将自己定位为自由贸易的代表。尽管中国在贸易方面有优势,但安全问题是其一大劣势。美中双方达成贸易协议的可能性很高,因为双方经济都有弱点,都不想长期陷入贸易战。 David Henig: 美中贸易战将导致全球商品贸易下降,对英国的影响虽然不巨大,但也足以影响英国的财政状况。对英国而言,脱欧的影响远大于美中贸易战的影响。倾销是非法的,而贸易转移是合法的。美中贸易战可能导致英国从其他市场进口更多商品,并可能导致英国对美国的信任度下降,而不是对中国的信任度上升。英国可能会寻求与其他中等强国建立联盟。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the health of China's economy, noting mixed signals. While recent growth was higher than expected due to government stimulus, underlying weaknesses such as deflation and high debt levels persist. The impact of the US tariffs on China's economy and potential responses from the Chinese government are also discussed.
  • China's Q1 2025 growth was 5.4%, exceeding expectations.
  • The Chinese government is dealing with deflation and high local government debt.
  • The property market collapse hurt Chinese household wealth.
  • Youth unemployment is a significant concern.
  • China exported roughly $3 trillion to the rest of the world in 2023, and about half a trillion dollars to the US.
  • The trade war could reduce China's GDP growth by 0.5% to 1%.
  • China might launch a large stimulus package to counter economic slowdown.

Shownotes Transcript

President Trump’s fury with China shows no sign of abating. High tariffs - first imposed by the US but now on both sides - are giving way to a very real trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. China’s President Xi Jinping is refusing to blink - so far - and in the past week he's been on the road in South East Asia, visiting Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. Where this goes now depends in large part on China's calculations about the capacity and determination of both sides to endure a trade war. So what cards does China hold ? And what are the implications for China's own economy and for the rest of us?

Guests: Damien Ma, Economist, Kellogg School of Management, Chicago Rana Mitter, ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School Isabel Hilton, visiting Professor at the Lau China Institute, King's College, London David Henig, Director of the UK Trade Policy Project

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Lucy Pawle Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Max Deveson