cover of episode What's Trump's tariff hokey cokey all about?

What's Trump's tariff hokey cokey all about?

2025/4/10
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The Briefing Room

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People
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Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
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Douglas Irwin
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Duncan Weldon
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Mehreen Khan
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Meredith Crowley
Topics
Donald Trump: 我坚信通过关税可以使美国再次强大,关税是保护美国工人和产业的必要措施,也是对抗中国不公平贸易行为的有效手段。麦金莱总统通过关税使美国变得非常富有,我要效仿他的成功经验。 我致力于通过关税来减少贸易逆差,让美国制造业回归,创造更多就业机会,提高美国工人的工资。关税也是我外交政策的重要组成部分,可以用来迫使其他国家与美国达成更有利的贸易协议。 Douglas Irwin: 特朗普对关税的理解和应用存在历史局限性,他将19世纪的关税政策简单套用在当今复杂的全球经济环境中,这是不合适的。麦金莱关税时期虽然是美国经济扩张时期,但那时的经济环境与现在完全不同,当时还有资本流入、移民和技术进步等其他因素在起作用,不能简单地将经济增长归功于关税。 关税政策会带来负面影响,例如贸易伙伴的报复性关税,以及对经济增长的损害。高关税也会导致通货膨胀,损害消费者的利益。 Meredith Crowley: 历史上的关税政策经验表明,高关税往往会适得其反,导致贸易伙伴采取报复措施,加剧经济衰退。斯姆特-霍利关税就是一个典型的例子。 二战后,全球贸易体系逐渐走向自由化,关税水平大幅下降,这促进了全球经济的增长。特朗普的关税政策逆转了这一趋势,可能会对全球经济造成负面影响。 美元作为世界储备货币,具有特殊的优势,但特朗普政府似乎试图通过关税政策来贬值美元,这可能会引发市场波动和不确定性。 Duncan Weldon: 特朗普的经济顾问认为,全球化导致美国去工业化,美国应该通过关税壁垒来保护国内产业,促进美国制造业回归,创造更多就业机会。 他们认为,关税不仅可以增加政府收入,还可以迫使公司在美国生产商品,以避免关税。这将有助于美国重新工业化,并为美国工人创造更多高薪工作。 Mehreen Khan: 特朗普政府对关税的依赖性越来越强,关税已经成为其解决各种经济和政治问题的万能工具。 特朗普政府的目标是通过关税来减少贸易逆差,并通过贬值美元来提高美国出口商的竞争力。但是,这种策略存在内在矛盾,因为他们同时希望美元保持强势地位。 中国是特朗普关税政策的关键目标,但中国并不希望贬值人民币,这使得特朗普政府的策略难以奏效。拜登政府也关注美国工人的问题,但他们采取的是提供补贴而不是关税的策略。 试图在特朗普的关税政策中找到一个连贯的长期战略是徒劳的,他的决策往往是基于直觉和短期目标,而不是基于深思熟虑的经济理论。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the historical use of tariffs in the United States, focusing on the McKinley Tariff of 1890 and its impact on the American economy. It also discusses the shift towards income tax in 1913 and the limitations of tariffs in funding modern government spending.
  • The McKinley Tariff aimed to protect domestic industries and raise federal revenue.
  • The U.S. experienced industrial expansion due to openness to international capital, immigration, and technological advancements.
  • The introduction of income tax in 1913 reduced reliance on tariffs, but tariffs didn't disappear completely.
  • Applying 19th-century economic lessons to today's global economy may be problematic.

Shownotes Transcript

Rarely has it been so difficult to see the wood for the trees. The trees being Donald Trump’s new tariffs announced on what he called Liberation Day and which took effect this week, plus the immediate responses to them. And the wood being the economic strategy that lies behind it all. ​​ ​​That strategy seems to evolve on a daily basis. Having vowed to ‘stay the course’ on tariffs earlier this week, yesterday saw Trump issue a change that ‘came from the heart’ - that change being a 90 day pause for everyone except China. It’s hard to keep up with the plot changes and in this programme we’re not going to try. Instead we’re going to step back and explore the origin’s of Trump’s love of tariffs, find out what history tells us about their effectiveness and we’ll ask whether Trump does actually have a grand plan. ​​ ​​If he does, what is it and can it succeed?

Guests:

Douglas Irwin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics the University of Cambridge Duncan Weldon, economist and author of "Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through" Mehreen Khan, economics editor of The Times

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Beth Ashmead Latham Sound engineers: James Beard Production Coordinator: Katie Morrison Editor: Richard Vadon