Whipsaw Rally to Records, Marathon Vote Underway, Apple Siri Revamp 7/1/25
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Listen and subscribe to Thoughts on the Market wherever you get your podcasts. The day begins at the Chase Sapphire Lounge by the club at Boston Logan Airport. You get the clam chowder. In San Diego, it's tostadas. New York, espresso martini. It's 10 a.m. Why not? It's the quiet before your next flight, the shower that resets your day, the menu that lets you know where you are.

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A wild first half of the books with the S&P and the Nasdaq both sitting at all-time highs, the Dow within striking distance. In Washington, a marathon voting session underway as the Senate pushes President Trump's one big beautiful bill despite infighting among Republicans. Plus, Apple reportedly taking a fresh look at its AI offerings and two new potential partners and a possible Siri revamp.

Stock futures are lower on this first day of the second half. It's July 1st, 2025. This is Worldwide Exchange on CNBC and streaming on CNBC+.

And good morning. Thanks so much for being here with us. I am Frank Collins. Let's get you ready for this first trading day of the second half. We begin with the U.S. markets, the S&P, the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100 in all-time highs. And this morning, investors are also weighing the potential impact of President Trump's letter to the Fed, once again urging the central bank to cut interest rates. Take a look at futures right now. You can see we're in the red, just fractionally lower across the board. The Dow looks like it would open about 20 points lower. We're going to take a look at the S&P 500 pre-market laggards first. Taking a look at those, you see right here at the top of the list,

Insulate Corp pulling back about 7.3%. Tesla shares under quite a bit of pressure in the pre-market, down about 4.5%. PACCAR, Dexcom, and Waters running out your worst performers on the S&P. And then we have the leaders, of course, in the pre-market. Take a look at those. Las Vegas Sand shares up over 2%. Train Technologies.

Those shares up over 2%. Big HVAC company, Wynn Resorts, Centus, and Hasbro. We're rounding out your best performers on the S&P in the pre-market. So again, today's the start of the third quarter and the second half of the year. Here are the top stocks year-to-date. Take a look. You see Palantir right at the top of the list. Shares up over 2%.

Over 80% year-to-date, followed by NRG Energy, Hamad Aerospace, Seagate, and GE Vernova. You see two industrials' names right here. Not surprising. Industrials are the best sector year-to-date. Here are the top names. You can imagine you're going to see some crossover here. Hamad Aerospace, the top performer in industrials, up over 70%. GE Vernova, Uber.

In the industrials, keep that in mind, GE Aerospace and Axon Enterprise, the maker of the Taser and some body cameras, renting out your best performers in the industrials. Coming up, we're going to dig into the top picks in the industrial space. Also want to check the dollar again after the president once again pressured the Fed to cut rates.

Next meeting coming up at the end of this month for the Fed. The CME FedWatch total shows a 21 percent chance of a cut. The president's urgings, that is definitely pressure the dollar. You see year to date the dollar down essentially 11 percent. Right now in the pre-market down just about a third of 1 percent. Also a check of the Treasury market again on the back of the president urging the Fed to cut rates. We see the two-year, the most influenced by Fed rate cuts right now at 3.7 percent. The benchmark moving to the downside at 4.19 percent. The 30-year, the long bond at 4.74.

Okay, that is your setup. Let's now turn our attention over to Europe and see how Europe wrapped up the first half of the year and also a check on the early trade on this July 1st. Karen Cho, she's live in London with a look. Karen, good morning.

Good morning, Frank. It is a cautious start to the second half, but we have wrapped up our first six months. They're very strong for quarters of the European markets, in particular the DAX. That was a real standout thanks to all the defence and infrastructure news, the development of putting money into these growth areas that propelled the DAX forward. The FTSE year, a

area of safety as well don't forget around the oil trade some of the geopolitics that came into the mix as well the luxury story somewhat undermined the french stock market by comparison but you can still see double-digit gains in some of these european markets now you mentioned the s p 500 gainers well i can tell you in the banking sector

Here in Europe, you saw similar size gains to those winners stateside. European Stocks Banking Index seeing its best first half since 1997. And you can see StockGen, a real winner there, up close to about 80 odd percent. One key sector to the downside, though, was autos. They were among Europe's worst performers in the first half as President Trump's tariff policies hit the sector with uncertainty still surrounding the industry as talks between the US and EU

eu continues so you can see red right across the sector down to the tune of 30 plus percent for the likes of stellantis and i've got to say today one of the big takeaway messages was from asian factories that have seen a slowdown thanks to the tariff uncertainty and a slew of european central bankers talking today in central also highlighting the lack of decision making now taking place

hampering growth. So I've got to say, we are really seeing some of that concern around trade tariffs and the geopolitics come into the mix now economically. Back to you, Frank. Yeah. Jay Powell also speaking at that ECB forum. So we're going to be watching that very closely. Our Karen Cho live in London. Karen, it's always a pleasure. Thank you.

All right. Turn our attention now to Washington, D.C. and Capitol Hill. Also a developing story there. A live look at the Senate floor where lawmakers are holding a marathon voting sessions on dozens of amendments in the lead up to a final vote on its version of President Trump's one big, beautiful bill. NBC's Alice Barr joins us now live from Washington with the very latest. Alice, good morning.

Good morning, Frank. So the Senate majority leader just told NBC News he thinks they're close to wrapping up this all-night voterama session when senators in both parties have been lobbying out change after change to the big bill. Most, though not all, have been shot down. And with that process now winding down, we could be nearing a vote on final passage in the Senate.

On Capitol Hill overnight, the marathon before the sprint as Republicans push to pass President Trump's signature spending and tax cuts bill. Make sure people's taxes don't go up tomorrow, the next day, forever. Senators locked in a voterama, introducing unlimited amendments before a final vote. We have before us a bill that gives tax breaks to the top 1% that will be paid in cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and more.

Proposed changes repeatedly shot down, including one from Republican Susan Collins to increase taxes on the ultra wealthy in order to boost funding for rural hospitals. When these facilities close their doors, the people they serve

are often left behind without access to health care. Democrats say Republicans are creating the danger to rural health care through Medicaid cuts and not going far enough to fix it. It is a band-aid on an amputation.

It provides just a tiny fraction of nearly $1 trillion in cuts. More than 11 million Americans are expected to lose their health care. Republicans argue the overhaul will help keep Medicaid running long term. We are fiscally making Medicaid more sound. Also touting the bill's extended tax cuts and billions for defense, deportations and the border.

Spending, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates, will increase the deficit by more than $3 trillion. President Trump's one-time advisor, Elon Musk, resuming his online attacks, saying Republicans who campaigned on cutting spending and back this bill, quote, will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this earth.

Musk and President Trump's war of words also reigniting overnight with the president saying that without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa, suggesting that Doge should take a look at that with

big money to be saved. Musk fired back overnight, calling the president's bluff, saying, quote, I am literally saying cut it all now. He also promised to back House Republican Thomas Massey that President Trump had threatened to try to unseat because of his opposition to the bill. Frank. Wow. A lot of political wranglings, not only on the Senate chambers here or in the Senate chambers, but on social media. So, Alice, give us a sense. What's the state of play right now? How many votes can Republicans actually afford to lose?

they can afford to lose three and going into this we already knew there were two tom tellus and rand paul who said they were going to be no vote susan collins has voiced some serious concerns though she hasn't said where she's going to land and then there's murkowski where collins goes often murkowski follows though she has been very tight-lipped actually saying radio silence when asked how she's leaning and

And so however this lands, if it's four, no votes, that's too many. If it's three, it would still pass. And then it has to get over through the House without any changes in order to make it to the president's desk by that self-imposed deadline of July 4th.

All right. Alice Barr live in D.C. Alice, thank you very much. Turn our attention now back to the markets. Really a wild first half for 2025. Take a look here at its lowest point. The S&P 500 was down 15 percent on April 8th following President Trump's big tariff announcement. Since then, it's come back just over 20 percent. And now it's up over 5 percent for the year. But

Plenty of headwinds remain for the second half of this year. From next week's tariff deadline to the upcoming earnings season, questions about stock valuations, tensions between the White House and the Fed, and just really a wide range of geopolitical issues. For much more, let's bring in Alan McKnight, Chief Investment Officer at Regions Wealth Management. Alan, good morning. Good to see you. Frank, always a pleasure to be here with you. So we were just kind of showing what we like to call the wall of worry, using some air quotes there. Is there one of those in particular that you see as the biggest worry specifically for the markets? Yeah.

I think the biggest worry right now is around uncertainty, which breeds volatility and complexity. And when you look across the landscape, whether it be the situation in Washington, which you're just discussing, the trade policy discussions, businesses and investors just want some clarity. We just want to be able to understand what are the rules of the road going to be and how should we allocate capital going forward. So once that's behind us, I think the wall of worry will be somewhat climbed. But there's always something out there. So right now, it's really those two big ones. All right.

I want to get to where you're seeing some opportunities in this market. You like the mid-cap. So we're going to show the SPY, which obviously represents the S&P 500. Then there's the MDY that represents the S&P mid-cap 400. So the thing about this, you see the charts, they're very similar with the exception that the mid-caps are down about a half a percent year to date. We mentioned the S&P is up about five and a half or five and a quarter. They have similar EPS growth. The mid-caps traded a discount about 17 times forward earnings. But does that make up for the underperformance in the actual stock market?

No, I think what we've seen to date, at least, is the mid-caps have taken a little bit longer to get going. And when you think about it from an earnings growth perspective, you know, they're almost on parity and growth. But that valuation disparity doesn't accurately capture the opportunity going forward in mid-cap. And I think as you look out over the end of this year and into next year, for those companies in the mid-cap space that have solid balance sheets and

that have good earnings growth on par with what we're looking at in large cap, they should start to receive and garner a valuation that's more akin to what their large cap peers are receiving. Wait, you think the valuation is going to increase? Then why would the mid-caps be attractive? I mean, they're underperforming. Similar EPS growth. If you think the valuations move to the upside, doesn't that make the mid-caps less attractive? No, we think that the valuations in mid-cap, if they go from 17 times earnings to 21 times earnings, 20 times earnings, somewhere in that neighborhood,

you're actually getting that benefit because earnings at the very least will start to grow. And so they will actually be growing in valuation and in earnings. So we actually think there's that opportunity while we think that large caps really don't have a whole lot of wiggle room from a valuation perspective. It's hard for us to rationalize, particularly in certain sectors and names,

for them, like, say, the Magnificent Seven, to be receiving additional or higher valuations right now. All right. What about the bond market? We're actually seeing yields move to the downside. I would think creating less competition for the equity market, but you're seeing opportunities in corporate bonds.

We are. We think that corporate bonds are a nice opportunity because of the balance sheet and how well corporate America has navigated through some of the challenges year to date, both from a trade perspective and overall policy perspective. And when you compare some of those names from a balance sheet perspective to sovereigns out there,

We think it's actually attractive and they think as long as the economy stays on firm footing and we don't envision a recession right now, we think they can do well through the end of the year and into next year. But under that thesis, does that mean high yields really attractive right now? Obviously, you know, a higher yield, but a bit riskier when it comes to the businesses. You seem to have a lot of confidence in the U.S. economy, specifically with that mid cap play where a lot of those names are more domestically focused.

We're not quite as excited about high yield and only because to your point, they've already had a great run. They've really tracked the large cap index and they've really tracked over the last couple of years what we've seen in the real high performers. And so we think that they may not do quite as well as the corporate side of the house. Not that they're going to go over the cliff again, but we just don't think they're going to necessarily generate the types of returns that we've seen on a year to date or even compared to last year. All right, Al McKnight, always a pleasure. Thank you very much.

All right. We're going to be a worldwide exchange. We've got a whole lot more to get to. Apple reportedly putting its in-house ambitions on the back burner and looking for some outside help and a massive Siri revamp. While my next guest says he has 20 billion reasons that Apple should actually be looking to an old friend for a little bit of help. Plus, how how AT&T found itself on the wrong side of a Trump truth social tirade.

And later, we're watching shares of Tesla moving the wrong way. After a rough first half of the year, we're going to dig into a possible reason why. A very busy hour still ahead when Worldwide Exchange returns. Life insurers put life into the things you live for. The new factory that's hiring your neighbors. Maintenance on the bridge that keeps traffic flowing. The paycheck that puts pizza night on the table.

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Like with every technical transformation, there will be fewer people doing some of the jobs that the technology actually starts to automate. But there are going to be other jobs, and we're going to hire more people in AI and more people in robotics, and there are going to be other jobs that the technology wants you to go hire that we'll hire over time too.

That was Amazon CEO Andy Jassy speaking with our Jim Cramer on Mad Money last night. He's maintaining his message that the rollout of generative AI tech will mean his company will one day need fewer employees to do the same amount of work. Jassy's comments to Cramer coming along with the new Wall Street Journal exclusive, saying that Amazon is on the cusp of using more robots than humans in its warehouses.

Sticking with AI, we're watching shares of Apple. Reports are the company is considering using artificial intelligence tech from Anthropic or OpenAI as the backbone for a revamped Siri in the process of sidelining its own in-house efforts. According to Bloomberg, Apple has spoken with both companies and has asked them to begin testing their AI tech on Apple's cloud infrastructure. CNBC has reached out to all the companies involved. Apple and Anthropic both declined to comment on that report.

Joining me now is Richard Kramer, founder and senior analyst at Arate Research. Richard, good morning. Good to see you. Good morning. Good to see you. All right. So, Richard, you always come with some very interesting perspective. You're a bit of a contrarian on this one. You say those reports you believe they're just they're misguided, I should say. You think Apple's going to go a different direction. But let's start off with the report. Why do you think that Anthropic and OpenAI are not the right picks?

Well, I don't know that it's misguided. I think Apple made it very clear at the WWDC that they would open their platform to frontier models. So what they choose to integrate into Siri, you can imagine, is going to be a range of models. And Apple is incredibly sensitive to

about hallucinating in their models. They don't want to have bad quality results from something as important to the company as Siri. All right, Richard, take a sip of some water really quick. We've all been there early mornings. The throat's getting a little tight. Take a quick sip.

I want to talk about your other thesis here. Go ahead. Take a sip. Catch your breath for a sec. No, I'm good. I want to talk about your other thesis, the fact that you think that Apple's going to do a tie-up with Alphabet, and you think that makes a lot of sense. And we teased it. You said there's 20 billion reasons, obviously alluding to the search payments that Alphabet makes to Apple. Absolutely. So Apple clearly needs to replace a $20 billion hole in its P&L if the DOJ turns around and says Apple cannot be paid by Google for default search in Safari. Right.

Google, on the other hand, needs to get very broad distribution for Gemini. They need that to go to the 1.3 billion endpoints that are on Apple devices. And Apple clearly needs RAG, retrieval automated generation, a truth set, a source of truth behind Siri that delivers the kind of actual results that you come to expect from Google search.

So these two companies we know from all the stuff that came out in the DOJ trial are very closely aligned. They have worked together for years. There's been money flowing between them. There's technology flowing between them. And indeed, Apple is one of the largest customers of Google Cloud. So there are already a lot of connections between these two companies. I'm not saying that they will use Gemini exclusively, but it would make sense.

make a very logical partner for Apple to work with Google. All right. That's a very interesting thesis. So you say I think the key part of that is once the DOJ situation is resolved, how confident are you that it's going to be resolved in a favorable way for Alphabet and Apple? And also, I have to ask you, is there any political risk in there? I mean, the president's been very critical of Tim Cook still building in India, you know, has mentioned him several times in less than positive ways. Is there any political risk of

this administration's DOJ doing something to stop that from actually happening? Let's set aside the political risk, which is about manufacturing and what Apple does in its software stack and services. And I think one thing that Apple has been very good at with its services is creating utilities that customers use every day. Apple Pay, iCloud, things like that.

Now, in terms of the DOJ outcome, whatever is going to happen, it's almost certain that Google will appeal. There may be some injunctions and restrictions on Google's behavior. Apple already tried to intervene and said, hey, we still want to get paid. So how can you tell us who to select as our search partner?

I think you're waiting until after that decision hits until you then see some sort of new deal between the two companies. And it may be just that Gemini is one of the partners added to Apple's roster of offerings that they support through Apple intelligence. All right, Richard, let me ask you one last question. We're talking about deals. I'm looking at the valuation of perplexity, about $12 billion.

according to Forge Global. I'm looking at the valuation of Anthropic, about 64 billion, according to Forge Global. Why doesn't Apple just buy both and just sort it out later? First of all, I think you know, Frank, that Apple is a company that has been almost entirely built on organic growth. It's done almost no acquisitions. It's just not the nature of the company to go and try to buy in technology. They like to control their software stack and

and control their ecosystem. So I don't think it's in their nature. Second, Perplexity is a very small company with very little underlying tech. I don't think that's the kind of company Apple would be looking to buy. I think, if anything, they will use the ecosystem that they have and the 1.3 billion endpoints and iPhones that they have as an attractive platform

a meeting point, if you will, for a company to do a deal. And I think you can see also Apple is extremely sensitive to corporate governance. That's, I think, why Phil Schiller didn't join the board of OpenAI and they didn't do a bigger deal back when that was rumored about a year, year and a half ago. All right, Richard Cramer, we're going to leave the conversation there, taking a check of Apple shares fractionally right now in the pre-market. You have a great day.

Thanks, Frank.

Shows XAI shares up more than 80% this year, roughly valued at $39 apiece. All right, still on deck here on Worldwide Exchange. You've got your big money movers and more records for this retail trader favorite. And what did CEO just told CNBC? We're going to reveal our mystery chart coming up right after this. If your small business has a problem, you could say, Ugh, just my luck. But you should say, Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. And we'll help get you back in business. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

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On WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages, whether it's a voice call, message, or sending a password. To WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late-night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends, and your family. No one else. Not even us. WhatsApp. Message privately.

And welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Let's get a check on some of this morning's top stories. Silvana Hanau is here with those. Silvana, good morning. Hey, Frank. Good Tuesday morning to you. Well, AT&T is refuting President Trump's claim it is to blame for issues he faced in hosting a conference call yesterday. Now, Trump taking to Truth Social to raise the issue, also urging the boss of AT&T to handle the situation without offering more specifics.

Now, the company posting on X, its initial analysis showed the problem was caused by the conference call platform used. The issue not impacting the stock up 3 percent yesterday, hitting a five year high. And right now we are seeing shares just fractionally lower in the pre-market. All right. Circle taking a step forward in its push to bring stable coins.

into the broader financial world, applying for a national bank charter. Now, while it wouldn't be able to accept cash deposits or issue loans, Circle would be able to offer custodial services and operate nationally under the office of the Comptroller of the Currency. If approved, Circle would be only the second

crypto company operating with a bank charterer. And we're seeing shares up about half a percent in the pre-market. And we are watching shares of Robinhood, which are pushing deeper into record territory after jumping more than 12 percent yesterday. And right now we're seeing shares up about 3 percent in the pre-market. And that surge coming after

After the company launched U.S. stock and ETF tokens for customers in the European Union, CEO Vlad Tenev talking about that expansion to CNBC yesterday. Listen in.

I think it's quite amazing and I believe it will make it easier to invest in American companies if you're outside the world. It will also bring the markets into 24/7 and fully on-chain and get all the benefits that crypto technology levies on these traditional assets. So I think it's time to move beyond Bitcoin and meme coins into real-world assets that exhibit fundamental utility.

And Frank, yesterday's gains helping Robinhood cap off a strong June up more than 41 percent. It's best month since its nearly 60 percent rally in November. Yeah, getting off to a good start of the second half. Right now up about three percent in the pre-market. So, Vonna, thank you very much. We'll see you just a bit later in the show.

All right, coming up here on Worldwide Exchange, trade deals in focus and a new reason the India ETFs rally may have even more room to run. Plus, a look at the year-to-date performance of the fund's top holdings. We're back right after this. Stay with us.

What Till has said out loud, I'd say a majority of senators, Republican senators believe that this bill is very bad for their states, but they don't have the guts to buck Trump. They're afraid of Trump. So in an uncomfortable position, they're fighting with each other and they're slowing everything down because they don't have a bill yet.

That was Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer talking to MSNBC last night about his Republican colleagues' race to pass President Trump's tax and spending bill, also known as the one big beautiful bill. The Senate's still in a marathon voting session on amendments to that legislation as GOP leaders race to lock in critical support to get it approved. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. I'm Frank Holland. Coming up this half an hour, we're going to have the very latest out of Washington and the lawmakers still holding out the key votes. But first,

We're going to get you ready for the second half and the third quarter of this year. We begin with the U.S. markets, the S&P, the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100, all of them at all time highs. And this morning, investors are also weighing the potential impact of President Trump's letter to the Fed, once again urging the central bank to cut interest rates. Take a look at futures. You can see we're in the red across the board. Fractional declines actually believe we're hitting our lows of this morning. The Dow looks like it would open up about 50 points lower. Want to take a look at the Nasdaq 100 pre-market laggards right now. Take a look at those names.

Tesla right here at the top of the list. Those shares pulling back about 5%. Packard, Dexcom, Strategy and Warner Brothers Discovery running out your worst performers on the NASDAQ 100. Then the NASDAQ 100 leaders this morning. Take a look at those trade deaths. Big digital ad company up over one and a half percent. Sintus, Xcel Energy, Atlassian and O'Reilly Auto running out your best performers on the NASDAQ 100 in the pre-market.

As we mentioned, today's the start of the third quarter and the second half of the year. Here are the worst performing stocks here to date. You see Decker's Outdoors right here at the top of the list, pulling back about 49%. Enphase Energy, UnitedHealth, Lululemon, Edison International, your worst performers so far.

year to date on the S&P 500. Consumer discretionary, the worst performing sector, heavily impacted by tariffs. Here are the stocks that move that sector lower. You're going to see some crossover, some overlap here. Decker's Outdoors, a big footwear maker, pulling back again, 49%. Lululemon, yoga pant maker, sourcing a lot out of China, pulling back 38%. Tesla down about 25%. Norwegian Cruise Line and Best Buy. Best Buy also sourcing a lot of its products out of China, pulling back more than 21%.

Quick check of currency, the dollar in particular, after President Trump again is pressuring the Fed to cut rates. Next meeting at the end of this month, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 21 percent chance of a cut. The president's urgings have pressured the dollar. You can see right here the dollar down more than 11 percent year to date, pulling back about a half a percent in the pre-market right now. And a check on bond yields. You see those have also moved to the downside in recent days.

The benchmark right now, we're going to take a look at that in just a second. Last check earlier in the half an hour was at 4.19%. Still there right now. Also important to note, the two-year, the most heavily influenced by Fed cuts at 3.7%. The long bond at 4.7%. We also want to check Europe in the early going this morning, taking a look at the stock 600. You can see it's pulling back about a quarter of 1%. The FTSE pulling back very fractionally. The Italian MIB, the worst performer out of all.

All the bourses pulling back just under a half a percent right now. We also take a check of European defense stock. They're in the red across the board on reports that the European Union will accept Trump's 10 percent baseline tariff on many imports. Take a look at some of these companies. BAE Systems pulling back nearly 1 percent. Talus pulling back about 3 percent. Saab down just about 4 percent. So you see a lot of red on the board when it comes to European defense stocks this morning. Also,

A mixed finish to the trading day over in Asia. The Hang Seng leading the losses, the Kospi leading the gains. You can see here the Hang Seng pulling back about three quarters of one percent down here. The Kospi up over a half a percent right now. Or actually, that's the way it closed. We also want to check some of the top performing global markets so far this year. South Korea's Kospi, that's right at the top of the list. You can see it right here, year to date.

up nearly 29 percent. The Hang Seng up about 20 percent. The German DAX up about 19 and a half percent. And down here, the Italian Med, despite it pulling back today, up nearly 16 percent year to date. OK, that is your setup. Now we want to turn our attention back to D.C. and a developing story on Capitol Hill. You're taking a live look at the Senate floor as lawmakers there. They continue their marathon voting session on amendments ahead of a final vote.

on President Trump's tax and spending bill. Emily Wilkins joins us now with the very latest. Emily, good morning. Good morning, Franklin. Yeah, senators up all night voting throughout the night. They are still voting now, as we saw in amendments. As GOP leadership behind the scenes, they're trying to wrangle a number of holdouts to find a way to pass this bill. It doesn't seem like the votes are there right now. Concerns are remaining both from Fiscal Hawk

like your Ron Johnson's who worry about the cost of the almost $3.3 trillion bill. Also from senators who want to protect things like Medicaid and some of the green energy tax cuts like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. At least one update has come from this voter Rama that moratorium on state AI laws that has been knocked out of the bill completely after nearly all senators voted

voted to remove it. This came after Senator Marsha Blackburn announced last night that she was walking away from a potential five-year moratorium agreement. She's backed out of that, and now that's completely out of the bill. We are still waiting to see if several other major amendments do get offered and what the votes are on those that could impact the ultimate outcome of the bill. One of them from Senator Rick Scott would shift some federal Medicare costs to states. And then another from Senator Joni Ernst

would allow more wind and solar projects to likely qualify for those tax credits. But further complicating all of this is Elon Musk, who according to his ex also seems to have been up all night. He continued to rail against the bill, tweeting that every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame and they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this earth.

Now, Musk is apparently already starting to make good on his word, saying on X that he donated to Thomas Massey's campaign, of course, one of the holdouts in the House. And Frank, that's going to be the big question. If we do actually happen to see the Senate pass this bill today, there's a lot of concern for what the path forward is in the House and whether they're going to have the votes there. But of course, as we go into this morning, the play is still very much with the Senate. And I think there's still a big question on whether or not they can get this passed before the July 4th holiday.

Frank? The Voterama continues. Emily Wilkins, the very latest out of D.C. Emily, thank you very much. The banking industry says President Trump's one big, beautiful bill could boost the U.S. economy despite concerns about how much it would add to the deficit. In a letter published on Sunday, the American Bankers Association says it

It strongly supports many provisions in the bill for the tax relief they offer. These include extending and enhancing the state tax exemption and making permanent 100 percent expensing for equipment, machinery and vehicles, otherwise known as bonus depreciation. Last week, Citi published a note saying passage of the bill combined with trade deals will be an economic tailwind.

All right, coming up here at Worldwide Exchange, digging into the top sectors so far this year. Industrials doubling the markets, broader performance in the first half. The names in that space, our next guest says, are the buys. We're going to have that coming up. Stay with us. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. A recent report card on the nation's infrastructure gave barely passing markets and highlighted a glaring and growing vulnerability in everything from bridges to ports to energy to communications and beyond. Our Diana Olick explains in her continuing series on rising risk from climate change.

At Fort Lauderdale International Airport, historic rainfall turned runways into rivers, shutting it down and stranding passengers. And in New York City, extreme heat caused metal on this bridge to expand so much that the bridge got stuck open.

U.S. infrastructure can't handle climate change. That's a recent finding by the American Society of Civil Engineers, which trains engineers and informs federal, state, and local building codes. According to that report, climate-related challenges are widespread, affecting even regions previously resistant to these events. The ASCE's overall grade for the nation's infrastructure? A C.

We continue to see more extreme weather events, so our infrastructure many times was not designed for these types of activities. Executive Director Tom Smith says it will only get worse. Whether it's ice, snow, drought, heat,

obviously hurricanes, tornadoes. We have to design for all of that and we have to anticipate not just where the puck is now, but where we think it's going. Sectors with the worst grades include airports, power and telecommunications infrastructure. We asked First Street, a climate risk firm, to overlay its risk modeling on these specific locations nationally.

It found that 19% of all power, 17% of telecommunications and 12% of airports have a major risk from flood, wind or fire. And those numbers will rise. It was built decades ago. So it was built for a climate that no longer exists. Sarah Kaepnick was chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration but was lured away by J.P. Morgan.

whose clients were asking more and more questions about the climate impacts to their investments. How should I change and invest in my infrastructure? How should I think about differences in my infrastructure, my infrastructure construction? Should I be thinking about insurance, different types of insurance? How should I be accessing the capital markets to do this type of work? For both Kaepernick and Smith, making infrastructure climate resilient all comes back to the science.

Climate and science is something that we take very, very seriously, working with the science, connecting it with the engineering to protect the public health, safety and welfare. But that science is seeing deep cuts from the Trump administration. It fired hundreds of employees at NOAA, FEMA and NIST, key government agencies that advance climate science.

There's going to be this adjustment period as people figure out where they're going to get the information that they need because many market decisions or financial decisions are based on certain data sets that people thought would always be there.

In addition to science, the nation's infrastructure also needs funding. ASCE estimates there is a $3.7 trillion gap over the next 10 years to get U.S. infrastructure to a state of good condition. The Trump administration has made deep cuts in infrastructure spending, including ordering FEMA to cancel the nearly $1 billion Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities Program, which was specifically aimed at reducing damage from natural disasters. Frank.

So, Diana, you highlighted three areas of infrastructure that are especially vulnerable right now, but what does the broader picture look like?

Well, in the broad picture, there were actually 18 categories in this study, everything from stormwater, drainage systems, dams, and every single one of them is impacted in the same way by climate change. That's why we really need the science in order to build better after we have these natural disasters that come through, whether it's fires, storms, winds, floods. You need to build to a more resilient infrastructure because most of the systems we have now, especially those stormwater systems, were built to a weather category

10, 20, 50, 100 years ago. We now know that rainfall is much stronger and flooding much more severe than it ever was before, Frank. Our Diana Olick with the latest look at rising risk. Diana, thank you very much. All right, coming up here on Worldwide Exchange, we've got the one word that every investor has to hear today and the stock pick that every investor needs to know. Also, as we have to break, we're watching shares of Tesla coming off its fifth straight session of losses. You can see right now Tesla shares pulling back about four and a half percent.

Sunday marking 15 years since the EV maker went public again right now, pulling back about four and a half percent. This recent slide adding to Tesla's woes for the year now down about 25 percent and 35 percent off of its December high. We're back in just a moment.

Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. The NASDAQ 100 is this year's top big index of the halfway market 2025. It's up 8%. The New York Stock Exchange Composite ranks second, up 7%. 5.5% for the S&P and the NASDAQ Composite, 5% for the Total Market Index. The Dow's up 3.6%. The Russell is still down 2.5%.

The industrials is the top performing sector so far in 2025, up 12 percent, followed by communication services and financials. Consumer discretionary is at the bottom. Palantir, the top performing S&P stock, up 80 percent in the first half of the year. That's followed by NRG, Halmet and Seagate. Let's turn back to that top performing sector, that's industrials, and see if the second half of the year will be a repeat of the first. Amit Mehrotra is the industrial sector head at UBS. He joins us now on the CNBC Newsline. Amit, good morning. Good to see you.

Frank, great to see you. Thanks for having me. All right. Let's just start off. Why are industrials the best performing sector in your mind? What's been the catalyst? What's been the tailwind? And do you see that tailwind continuing in the second half of the year?

Well, keep in mind that, you know, for the last two to three years, we've been in an industrial recession really on the back of the COVID hangover, if I can put it that way. And so inventory in the channel has been depleted. And really, there's a lot of pent-up demand in the system. So you need a little bit of confidence, a little bit of psychology moving in the right way with respect to revenue expectations over the

over the next six months for a lot of businesses to start rebuilding inventory we started to see that in december january february we hit a big giant pause button um vis-a-vis liberation day and tariffs and now we're hitting the unpause button we're seeing it in the leading indicator data so those are the reasons and frankly going forward um we're quite a bit more optimistic than when i was in your

in your studio in January talking about a positive outlook for the industrial economy. So we can get into that. But I think this trajectory is going to continue for the next six months. You know, I actually want to get in some of your top picks. So Johnson Controls, 3M, and Honeywell. Let's start off with the first one, Johnson Controls. Why are you so bullish on this name in particular? It's a player in the HVAC space. Is this tied to the tech trade? Is there something else that you see moving this stock to the upside?

It's really tied to the energy efficiency trade. Fifty percent of this business is commercial HVAC. When you think about data centers or all the demand for power in the U.S. and the world, power prices go higher. The payback for upgrading your commercial HVAC is

is meaningful in that backdrop. Johnson Controls has a new management team. We think there's about 70 percent, 7-0 percent upside in earnings power over the next three to four years. And that's very, very compelling against a lot of other things in industrials today. All right. Amit Morocha, great to see you as always. Thank you very much for joining us on the CNBC Newsline. You have a great day.

Coming up here at Worldwide Exchange, the tech darling outperforming every single MAG7 member this year that our next guest calls her top idea. That stock you can see right here, up 50% so far this year. Our mystery chart will be revealed. Stay with us.

Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Get a check on a few top stories that we're following this morning. U.S. trade officials are reportedly looking to close a series of increasingly narrow trade deals with a number of countries at a President Trump's July 9th tariff deadline. According to the FT, countries that agree on narrow deals will be spared harsher reciprocal tariffs, but will be left with an existing 10 percent tariff while negotiating more difficult issues.

This is coming as India is reportedly on track to finalize an interim trade deal with the U.S. as soon as this week. And then in Washington, the Trump-Powell feud continues. During a briefing yesterday, House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt held up what appeared to be a handwritten note from Trump to the Fed chair layered on top of a table of global central bank lending rates. The president apparently writing, Jerome, you are, as usual, too late. You've cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. Powell is set to speak at a central banking forum in Portugal later this morning.

Elsewhere, China's factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth last month. According to a new private survey, the report diverging with China's official PMI report, which showed activity actually contracted in June for a third straight month. And the cost of your 4th of July cookout is showing no signs of easing. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the retail price of ground beef is currently sitting at an all-time high at $6.67 a pound, the highest since that survey began back in 2013.

Back to the markets again off the second half of the trading year. Take a look at futures. We are in the red across the board, just fractionally decline or fractional declines, I should say, and off of our lows of earlier. With that, let's bring in Victoria Green, founding partner and CIO at G Square Private Wealth and a CNBC contributor. Vicki, good morning. Good to see you. Good morning, Frank. What's your word of the day?

It's unrelenting. I know out there there's a wall of worry this market has to keep climbing, and it can keep climbing. It's dang the torpedoes, full speed ahead. And that's such a great quote for this market right now, because that was back in the Civil War. Admiral Farragut and torpedoes were actually mines back then. But a ship hit a mine. Everybody got worried. Nobody wanted to move forward. And he said, dang it, we're going to go forward. We're going to make sure we just try not to avoid the mines. And that's what this market is.

market is yeah there's some minds out there yes there's some worry but we can go forward we can push higher new highs beget new highs we're bullish going into the second half of the year and don't don't get overwhelmed by the macro noise focus on the fact this market can continue to climb higher. So Vicki I mean obviously you were probably watching the show earlier we kind of showed the quote unquote wall of worry and all the different issues.

Which one of those do you think gets, I guess, resolved or smoothed over enough to move the market higher? Do you think the trade deals get resolved in a positive way? Do you think the Fed cuts? That's something else the market's very worried about. Of course, it's just general geopolitical tensions. And then there's the one big, beautiful bill.

I think one big beautiful bill gets done. Uh, they've been very effective at whipping their, their votes in line. I know we're having a lot of pain ringing, but that's what a big bill is. There's often this, this kind of last minute flurry. I do think that gets done. I don't think the debt ceiling comes into play this summer. I am not actually thinking we're going to get three cuts. So I'm kind of on the bearish one there on the fed. Um,

I think that's a little aggressive to see through. But my biggest worry probably is tariffs coming back into play. And who's paying the $60 billion we've raised the last three months? Somewhere that's going to show up. And right now the concern is, is that going to show up in margins? Often expected it was going to start hitting here in July.

So we're watching if that has an effect on PCE, on inflation, as well as any drags on companies' earnings. Somebody has paid in $60 billion to the U.S. Treasury, and we're going to figure out who over the next few months. You know, it's funny you mention that. We get the ISM report later today. I want to make this very quick, though. Do you think we start to see the impact of tariffs there? Industrial is the best-performing sector year to date, but do we start to see some weakness in that trade, in that sector, due to tariffs as soon as today, possibly?

Possibly. I think your shipping numbers are low and you're also seeing manufacturing still in decline here in the U.S. So we cannot get that manufacturing engine going. It's been a real struggle bus there. And we're also seeing input costs continue to rise, which should lead to inflation. So, yes, I'm concerned on ISM. And manufacturing has been a weak point in the economy for the last two years. You know, on our wall of worry, stock valuations is one thing. We're going to reveal our mystery chart in your pick today. It's Netflix for P.A. 50 times. Are you concerned about that when it comes to this name?

No, bulls don't die from a big PE. Evaluations are not a big issue. That's not going to be a problem to the stock. The stock is amazing. You need to focus on the fact that linear TV is still under a lot of pressure. Steaming is just now becoming the highest percentage of viewership. They're right behind YouTube and they're brilliant on what they're doing. Look at their pricing tiers, their addition of ad base, which hasn't really paid much. But we think ad revenue is going to be at least three billion and that's going to ramp up

closer to 10 billion, they're not going to report monthly users anymore because now it's about monetizing those users. And they're a fantastically run company. Content slate, second half, beautiful. All right. Vicki, I like your thesis there for one part. We're on linear TV right now, just FYI.

Victoria Green, great to see you as always. Great to see you as always. Before we let you go, one more look at U.S. stock futures we mentioned in the red across the board right now. Taking a look at the picture right now, the Dow looks like it would open about 30 points lower, fractional declines across the board. That's going to do it for us here on Worldwide Exchange. You've been listening to CNBC's Worldwide Exchange. You can always catch us live weekdays at 5 a.m. Eastern.

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