Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities.
And even another passenger. We're three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC.
Auto insurance can all seem the same until it comes time to use it. So don't get stuck paying more for less coverage. Switch to USA auto insurance and you could start saving money in no time. Get a quote today. Restrictions apply. I'm Frank Holland and you're listening to CNBC's Worldwide Exchange. Our show is live weekdays at 5 a.m. Eastern. Listen in.
China clapping back, saying no trade talks with the U.S. have taken place and urging the White House to drop the tariffs. This comes as the White House does a partial U-turn when it comes to auto tariffs. In futures, they're in the red after two days of solid gains as earnings and outlooks grab some of the spotlight. It's Thursday, April 24, 2025. You're watching Worldwide Exchange right here on CNBC.
Good morning. Thanks so much for being here with us. I am Frank Collins. Get you ready for this trading day ahead. We begin with U.S. stock futures after the major indices. They close higher on back to back days. But take a look here. You can see futures. We're in the red across the board right now. The S&P and the Dow, they're both down nearly one percent. You can see it looks like the Dow would open up about 300 points lower than Nasdaq. The heart is hit down more than one percent. Investors, they're just digesting the president, considering some exemptions for some auto parts from China. Also, the response from China that we're going to get to in just a second.
Also, the president saying he plans to call Jay Powell to discuss cutting rates. I haven't called him. I might call him. I haven't called him, but I believe he's making a mistake by not lowering interest rates. And I think as well as we're doing, we do much better. He's keeping rates too high. He historically has been late.
So back to those comments again, the president say he's thinking about calling Jay Powell to discuss rates right now. Take a look at the S&P 500 laggards. Again, futures are lower across the board. Taking a look, we see a lot of earnings movers. We're looking at the laggards. IBM, 8 percent lower after earnings. Chipotle, similar story, down 4 percent after earnings. MGM down almost 4 percent after earnings. Sincor and Textron running out your worst performers on the S&P. Then we have the S&P 500 leaders taking a look. Also, another earnings mover.
ServiceNow shares, those shares up 9% following earnings, following ResMed, Tyler Technologies, Dover Corp, and Texas Instruments also moving higher following earnings. All right, checking the bond market this morning. All bond yields, they ease just a few basis points overnight, but very important to note, two-year yields. They've risen about 10 basis points week to date, while the long end has declined week to date. Also, five-year auction yesterday. Are Rick Santelli giving that a
B grades. And when it comes to the auction on the five year B grade from our Rick Santelli, also important to note the CEO of Citadel, Ken Griffin, also a Republican mega donor. He actually spoke about the treasury market saying that President Trump and his administration, they're at risk of damaging the brand of U.S. treasuries. But again, auction yesterday, Rick Santelli for the five year, giving it a B.
Moving on to currency, the dollar coming off its best day of the year, rose just about 1% right now. You can see it's pulling back just about a half a percent. Month-to-date, the dollar pulling back more than 4.5%. And then gold coming off its worst day since June of 2021. Big pullback yesterday. Taking a look this morning, big rise. You can see gold's up about 1.5%. Month-to-date, up over 6%. Remember, this is a safe haven play. A lot of times when we see the futures lower, we see gold higher. Right now, gold up 1.5%.
We're also watching the automakers this morning. The president saying he's considering an exemption for auto parts from China. Taking a look at automakers, you can see kind of mixed reactions. Stellantis shares, those are up 1%. The rest of these pulling back. Yesterday, Ford and General Motors were up about 1%. You can see right now Ford pulling back more than 1%. General Motors back about 3.25%. Tesla down about 2% right now.
Okay, that's your setup now. We want to stick with the tariffs and some new developments out of China. Our Eunice Yun joins us now on the CNBC Newsline with the very latest. Eunice, good morning.
Good morning, Frank. China is flatly denying claims by the Trump administration that the two sides are in talks over tariffs. At a regular briefing today, the Commerce Ministry said, at present, there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S. And then it added, if the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem, it should cancel all
the unilateral measures on China. The statement came after President Trump had insisted overnight that there had been direct contact every day, he said, with China. And this is despite Treasury Secretary Scott Besant saying that talks between the two countries on trade haven't started. Even so, both men had indicated that there could be a de-escalation of tariffs, though Besant's
had cautioned reporters at the conference that any de-escalation would have to be mutual. He had warned that the U.S. and China trade war was not sustainable. And when asked today about reports that the U.S. is considering dropping tariff rates to somewhere between 50 to 65 percent, the foreign ministry repeated its official line that China would be open to talks, but only if Beijing was treated as an equal. Frank?
All right. Eunice Yun live from Beijing. Eunice, great to see you as always. Thank you very much. I want to take a quick check of the global markets right now. First, we're going to start off with Europe, taking a look at the moves there. You can see right now we're taking a look at Europe. The stocks I just checked it a short time ago. It was lower. We're going to show you the European markets in just a second. The stocks, it was lower about a half a percent when I checked just a short time ago. Taking a look at the reaction in the European markets right now, just waiting for those graphics to come up.
All right, we're going to move on. We'll show you the European markets in just a bit. Time now for your big money movers. We're going to start off with shares of Chipotle. Under some pressure on the back of first quarter results, revenue missing estimates, same-store sales declining for the first time since 2020. Chipotle also lowering the top end of its outlook for full same-store sales growth on the earnings call. The company's CEO raising some concerns about the consumer. In February, we began to see that the elevated level of uncertainty felt by consumers starting to impact their spending habits.
We could see this in our visitation study where saving money because of concerns around the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers were reducing the frequency of restaurant visits. This drove a slowdown in our underlying transaction trends. This trend has continued into April.
So again, Chipotle shares lower just about 4%. Moving on to IBM, also under some pressure right now, down about almost 7.75% right now. Despite beating on the top and the bottom line and maintaining its full-year guidance, IBM's suggesting that economic uncertainty and U.S. government cost cuts may hit the company's business.
Shares of ServiceNow, they're taking off earnings and revenue topping expectations. The company also raising its annual guidance as it says its government business is growing. The CEO saying the platform is operating in a best case scenario environment as companies look to optimize their supply chain. ServiceNow shares up just about 9 percent right now. All right. Time now to turn back to the broader markets and bring in Doug Bonaparte, president of Bonafide Wealth. Doug, good morning. Thanks for joining us. Doug, good morning. Hope you can hear me.
Can hear you. Good morning. Perfect. Why don't we start off with just how you're seeing the market? So yesterday we obviously had earnings, very strong results from ServiceNow, IBM. Results were strong, but a lot of investors responding to the thought that the government cuts may impact their business. How are you viewing tech right now?
Tech looks a little attractive off the highs, but you've got a lot of uncertainty here. Mag7 hasn't really performed this year. You've got to go out to international to get any kind of performance in the market. But you've had some good years, right? You've had some mega years out of those stocks. So if you're a long-term investor and you're looking at technology, you probably are bullish here. You're going to pick up some discounts.
All right. So when you say pick up some discounts, it sounds like you're saying, you know, the phrase, quote unquote, buy the dip. But aren't there some big differences when it comes to tech, whether you're talking software, cybersecurity, the hyperscalers, for example, Alphabet reporting later today. So would you buy that stock ahead of earnings? Are you feeling that confident?
I'm not a fan of buying anything ahead of earnings. You never know which way it's going to go. But again, long enough of a time frame for an investor, you're going to look at 10, 20, even more percent of a discount and say, hey, is this something I want to hold for the long term? And you might actually appreciate that a very long time from now.
What do you make of some of those comments from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin saying that the brand of U.S. treasuries could potentially be damaged by some of this trade policy? How are you looking at the bond market right now? When you're looking at bonds, if you are at all for your clients, are you looking at treasuries? You're looking at corporates. Where are you seeing the opportunities?
Usually, I'm looking at the Barclays aggregate U.S. bonds as a whole when it comes to our volatility dampener in our portfolio. We're still getting some decent yields relative to where we were when we had zero interest rate policy. I don't think Ken's wrong. What we're seeing here, the indecision out of Washington,
The 10-year treasury whipping around here. The bond market is clearly screaming something, and it's not good. So Ken's not too wrong here. We could use more communication. We could use some more certainty, of course, to understand what the game plan here. Right now, investors are kind of white-knuckling volatility, and that's never fun, but they're hanging in.
They're definitely hanging in. Earnings season so far, we've seen obviously some mixed results, but some positive outlooks out there. In your mind, how does earnings season continue to influence this market? Is it simply just trade policy tariffs or is there some other impact that we could see from earnings that could move the direction up possibly or even lower?
Yeah, earnings are going to be important to see where we were before all of this trade and tariff stuff has come into play here. But as far as forward-looking guidance, I mean, can you imagine being a CFO or a CEO in this environment and trying to figure out how you're going to spend your capital over the next year or several years? It has to be impossible. It has to be super frustrating.
And that frustration is showing up in the form of volatility and in the form of investors not really knowing where to put their next dollar. But again, long-term buy and hold investors, dollar cost averaging into this market is exactly what this is designed for. So you kind of got to go
Eddie, how's we going here? What about cryptocurrency? You've come in, we talked about it before. It's back above 90,000, but it's certainly been volatile. Basically just as volatile as the stock market right now. Has the last couple of weeks, has that changed review on cryptocurrency or Bitcoin at all? Is it a hedge for the volatility or an option outside of equities?
I think that's one of the more compelling stories right now, as you look at specifically Bitcoin decoupling from that leverage risk on the asset that it's been for pretty much ever. And now it's doing the thing that it's supposed to be doing. Now, granted, very short period of time in which we see this decoupling taking place. But yeah, Bitcoin, you know, coming down from $93,000 into that $91,000 range. But, you
you know, well off its lows. I would keep your eye on Bitcoin, particularly will it indeed become that hedge or that, you know, decoupled asset from the Nasdaq or the markets in general. Yeah, taking a look at it right now, actually, it's trading at about 92,250, down about 1% right now. But remember, it trades around the clock. Doug Bonaparte, always a pleasure. Great to see you.
Great to see you, too. All right. We got a lot more to come here on Worldwide Exchange, including the one word that investors have to hear today and the stock pick that every investor needs to know. But first, much more of the president's partial turnaround around auto tariffs. Our next guest says the relief could actually be pretty short lived.
Plus, markets bracing for the next MAG7 report. That's Alphabet, which you need to watch on those critical results. Take a look at shares of Alphabet. They're pulling back about three quarters of one percent right now. And later, more of our big money movers. We're talking Texas instruments taking off as the chipmaker soothes tariff concerns. A very busy hour still ahead when Worldwide Exchange returns. Stay with us. Do you know how long the average professional spends making slide decks every week?
Five hours. That's almost an entire workday resizing text boxes and moving around bullet points. Well, Gamma is here to rescue you from presentation purgatory. Just drop in your notes and Gamma magically turns them into polished presentations, websites, social posts, you name it. No design or coding skills required. Start for free at gamma.app and get a month of Gamma Pro for free with promo code podcast.
Stripe helps many of the world's most influential companies grow their revenue and build a more profitable business. Whether it's Hertz making checkout a smooth ride for their customers, OpenAI answering unprecedented demand, or PGA chipping away at back office inefficiency, Stripe's financial infrastructure platform helps companies achieve ambitious goals. No matter what success looks like for your business, Stripe helps ensure the complexity of financial systems doesn't get in your way. Learn more at stripe.com.
Introducing the new 2025 Ford Maverick truck. With in bed power, up to 4,000 pounds of towing capability and elevated off-roading capability. The new 2025 Ford Maverick truck with a standard hybrid engine and available all wheel drive. Ford, make it with Maverick.
Max towing on all-wheel drive models with available Max trailer tow package excludes Maverick Lobo and Trummer models when properly equipped. Max towing varies based on cargo, vehicle configuration, accessories, and number of passengers. Always consult the owner's manual before off-roading. Know your terrain and trail difficulty and use appropriate safety gear.
Worldwide Exchange watching shares of the automakers this morning. The White House telling CNBC President Trump is considering exemptions for automakers for some previously announced tariffs. This after the Financial Times reports the president's planning to exempt auto parts from tariffs on imports from China and those put in place over steel and aluminum. The FT adds the 25% tariff Trump put on all foreign-made auto imports, that would remain along with the 25% tariff on foreign imported car parts.
which are set to take effect next week. For much more on this, let's bring in Tim Higgins, columnist at The Wall Street Journal and a CNBC contributor. Tim, good morning. Good to see you. Good morning. Good to see you. All right. So the exemption here is on auto parts coming out of China. How big of a deal is this for the auto industry?
Huge deal, huge deal earlier this week. A group of the auto industry lobbying groups, including the automakers, suppliers, franchise dealers, all were telling the White House that this sort of thing was needed, warning that there could be a domino effect, a cascading effect, if you will, if these tariffs were to go into effect.
really increasing the cost of business and concerns broadly about the state of the supplier industry. As we know from many, many years of watching this industry, that part of the supply chain for the car business is very fragile. A lot of these suppliers are probably not in a very good spot and not able to kind of weather the increases they'd be seeing. And they're worried about the industry going down.
All right. So when we're talking about these auto parts from China, I mean, I don't know if you have hard numbers, but just give us a rough sense directionally. What percentage of the parts and autos are coming from China? I mean, you sent us some numbers about how many parts really go into an individual car and you don't think about it. You get in the car, you just drive it. You don't think about all the individual components and parts and the seats and everything else where they come from. So just roughly how many come from China and how big of an impact on price could this have?
Well, that's one of the challenges here is when you think about a car that's got 10,000 parts into it, and even just one seemingly innocent piece that's coming from China could be critical to allowing the vehicle to be made. And that's what has these companies, these automakers, scrambling to figure out kind of what vulnerability, what exposure they have. And it's one of these things that, A, the supplier, the parts maker themselves, who
can't just turn on a dime, but also the car makers themselves can't turn on a dime as well. Trump has suggested in recent time here that there'd be some perhaps willingness to allow kind of some time for those parts to be brought to the U.S.,
maybe that are made in Canada and Mexico. So we've seen some of this flexibility from the White House, which gets to why Mary Barra, the General Motors chief executive officer yesterday, was saying, look, they're looking for consistency and some kind of clarity to what's going on here before they start to make huge changes to their manufacturing plants. Tim Higgins from The Wall Street Journal. Good to see you as always. Thank you very much.
Thank you. All right. Coming up here on Worldwide Exchange, a pulse check on the state of small businesses all around the world. We got the CEO of fintech company Payoneer. He's here with what he's hearing from his clients. That's coming up next. Stay with us.
Stripe helps many of the world's most influential companies grow their revenue and build a more profitable business. Whether it's Hertz making checkout a smooth ride for their customers, OpenAI answering unprecedented demand, or PGA chipping away at back office inefficiency, Stripe's financial infrastructure platform helps companies achieve ambitious goals. No matter what success looks like for your business, Stripe helps ensure the complexity of financial systems doesn't get in your way. Learn more at stripe.com.
Does it ever feel like you're a marketing professional just speaking into the void? Well, with LinkedIn ads, you can know you're reaching the right decision makers. You can even target buyers by job title, industry, company, seniority, skills.
Wait, did I say job title yet? Get started today and see how you can avoid the void and reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. We'll even give you a $100 credit on your next campaign. Get started at linkedin.com slash results. Terms and conditions apply.
And welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Right now, take a look at futures right now. You can see futures in the red across the board. The S&P and the Dow pulling back about two thirds of one percent. The Nasdaq, the hardest hit, down about three quarters of one percent. However, all three indices off of their lows of earlier this morning.
And now checking shares of Payoneer Global. That stock under some pressure this morning, but still in the green for the week so far, up just about 1.5%. Bit of a tough start to 2025 for the fintech player, finding itself caught up in the broader tech sell-off. For more on this and a closer look at global commerce, let's bring in John Kaplan, CEO of Payoneer. John, good morning. Thanks for being in here. It's terrific to be here. All right, so you recently did a survey, all right? So is the survey with Payoneer
Big enterprises, small and medium-sized businesses, who's this survey with and what was the real focus of it? So we did a survey of 4,000 global SMBs and asked them how they feel about cross-border trade, global trade, and the overwhelming majority of them are focused on expanding their cross-border trade. At this time, when there's the disruption in the macro economy, this macro disruption is driving innovation and dynamism among small businesses
globalization isn't retreating actually it's diversifying and this diversification is happening for small businesses all over the world all right so it sounds like they're actually diversifying away from america though according to your survey 26 of them they see europe now as a buyer's market it sounds like they previously saw the us as a buyer's market actually it's interesting the us is essential to global trade and businesses the biggest market yeah exactly and businesses that export to the united states
are eager to continue to. And people have been planning for tariffs, but 145% is sort of outside of the absorption zone of the tariffs. So what's a buyer's market? Is the U.S. still a buyer's market? I think SMBs around the globe are focused on Latin America and real growth into Latin America, into Europe, into Australia, and as it relates to the United States, preserving and developing the relationships that they have.
SMBs around the world view the United States as essential. We also see US SMBs increasingly looking to globalize their workforces. The Payoneer Workforce Management product, a firm customer of ours, IA Blueprint, excuse me, using Payoneer to pay contractors
and suppliers in the Philippines, for example. All right. So those are small and medium-sized businesses. I also want to point out you have some big-name customers and partners. We're talking Amazon, Etsy, Walmart, Airbnb, eBay. Obviously, they do a lot of global commerce as well. What are they seeing? What trends are they seeing when it comes to global commerce? And where are they looking for opportunities? I think all of those firms rely on international supply to fuel their marketplaces. Fifty-nine percent of Amazon's
e-commerce business is marketplace and that's international. A lot of that is international sellers and international sellers really value the demand to bring high quality, low cost goods to U.S. consumers and love the distribution channel provided that they can do so in a profitable way. All right. Uh, you have earnings coming up in a few weeks, so we're not really talking about your numbers right now, but I do want to ask you in this environment, we've seen some companies push back guidance. We've seen some other companies give outlook. Uh,
I believe it was United, gave two sets of outlook. One if this happens, one if the other one happens. I'm asking for the numbers right now, but how are you viewing guidance? How are you viewing the next year ahead as someone who runs a business yourself? Yeah, I don't want to get ahead of myself, right? Earnings for Payoneer is May 7th. What's interesting about our business overall
This is our 20th year. We've thrived and grown through COVID, through the disruptions in the financial crisis, through the war in Ukraine. Our North Star is our customers around the world. Two million cross-border SMBs doing business across 7,000 corridors. I am a believer and optimistic about the long-term strength of small businesses and cross-border trade. John Kaplan, CEO of Payoneer. Great to have you here. Great to see you again.
All right. Coming up here on Worldwide Exchange, we got a lot more to get to. But first, we're going to take a quick check of shares of Caring sliding on a bigger than expected sales drop in the first quarter, fueled in part by continued struggles with its Gucci brand. Our European colleagues calling it a Gucci crisis, actually. The luxury giant warning of possible job cuts with no signs of improvement in sight. And if you haven't already, follow our podcast. If you miss Worldwide Exchange, check out Apple, Spotify or other apps. We'll be right back after this.
In 2025, we plan to invest around $75 billion in total capex. This investment will be directed towards our servers and data centers, which includes powering our AI compute and cloud business.
That was Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai earlier this month reaffirming his company's commitment to CapEx spending this year despite the tariff headwinds. We're going to have to see if that's still the case when the tech giant reports its results after the bell. Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. I'm Frank Holland. Coming up this half an hour, we're going to have much more of what you need to watch when it comes to that tech giant's earnings. But first, we're going to get you ready for the trading day ahead. We begin with U.S. stock futures after the major indices.
They close higher on back-to-back days. Taking a look at futures right now, you can see we're in the red across the board. However, off of our lows of earlier today, right now it looks like the Dow would open about 260 points lower. The S&P and Nasdaq both down more than a half a percent. Investors this morning are digesting the president, considering some exemptions for some auto parts from China. China also responding. Also, the president saying that he may call Fed Chair Jerome Powell to discuss cutting in rates.
I haven't called him. I might call him. I haven't called him, but I believe he's making a mistake by not lowering interest rates. And I think as well as we're doing, we'd do much better. He's keeping rates too high. He historically has been late.
And on the back of those comments, checking the NASDAQ 100 laggards. Remember, futures are lower right now. Taking a look, you can see Xcel Energy pulling back about 3%. PDD Holdings, O'Reilly Auto, MicroStrategy, and Palantir running out your worst performers on the NASDAQ 100. Then the other side of the coin, the NASDAQ 100 leaders, the best performers, Texas Instruments. Those shares up over 3.5%. Atlassian, Lamb Research, Microchip Tech, and Cadence Design Systems running out your best performers.
on the Nasdaq 100. We also want to check the bond market this morning, taking a look at the action there. So bond yields in general, they eased back a few basis points overnight, but it's very important to note week to date, the two-year yield, that's up almost about 10 basis points. A lot of continued rise on the short end of the curve could be a sign of concerns about economic growth. Also looking at the five-year, Rick Santelli gave the auction on the five-year yesterday a
B, saying the demand was pretty solid. Five-year yield at 3.97. Also very important to note, CEO of Citadel, Ken Griffin, coming out, also a Republican mega-donor, by the way, very critical of the Trump trade policy, saying it has the potential to damage the brand of U.S. Treasuries. All right, moving on to the currency markets right now. The dollar coming off its best day of 2025, moving up just about 1% yesterday. Right now you see it's pulling back just about a half a percent. Month-to-date pulling back about 4%.
four and a half percent and also looking at gold coming off its worst day since June of 2021. Right now you can see gold actually spiking right now up about one and a half percent month to date up over six percent. Also, we want to look ahead. Several big earnings reports today, including Alphabet, Intel, Procter & Gamble, Merck and our parent company of Comcast. Seeing some mixed reaction in the pre-market of those.
Alphabet shares pulling back more than a half a percent. Let's take a bit now deeper into Alphabet's first quarter results after the close today. The stock's down more than 17 percent this year. Joining me now to discuss Alex Kantrowitz, founder of Big Technology and a CNBC contributor. Alex, good morning. Good to see you. Good morning, Frank. Great to see you. All right. So we were planning that soundbite from Senator Pichai from earlier this month saying that the company plans to maintain its CapEx spending. What are you expecting? A lot has changed in these couple of weeks.
If Google says that it's going to pull back AI infrastructure or data center infrastructure spending, I think that's a terrible sign. I think they're going to keep their foot on the gas pedal for one important reason. This is the company that brought the generative AI innovations to market that kicked off this entire moment. And then remember, they were behind.
And they are going to do whatever they can to stay in the game and stay ahead if they can. And so them cutting AI infrastructure spending at a time where they've said that their systems are stressed would be a terrible sign. I think they're going to try to stay ahead. I think they're going to keep spending. And we know there's demand. And we know that this AI spend is powering cloud for them. So I think it's very important for their business. And they're going to keep their foot on the gas pedal and keep moving.
All right. Speaking of cloud, that's continues to be the growth driver of this company. Estimates have revenues for Google Cloud rising more than 12 billion dollars, a 28 percent growth rate year over year. What do you expect? Do you think they can maintain this level of growth or actually meet the estimates? I should say we've seen a lot of companies pulling back on spending. Do you think that also impacts cloud spending?
we're going to see less impact from the tariffs in the anticipation of tariffs in Q one. So everybody who's talking about pausing their build outs I don't think that's going to apply to this earnings report- but that said I do think that they have the ability to keep their foot on the gas pedal on cloud as well. I spoke with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian just a few weeks ago. And AI is a real driver of their business there are companies startups in particular. That are coming in there seeing the technology. And they're wanting to build with Google. As well as
And maybe in the past they might have said, we'll just do Amazon. They say now that we'll do Amazon and we'll do Google because we know that there's a lot of innovation, especially on the core technology on the company's front. And I think that's going to continue. All right. So you have a lot of confidence in the cloud business. You don't see a slowdown there. But what about the ad business? So I'm looking at the YouTube estimates, 11 percent growth year over year.
We've previously kind of framed ad spending as perhaps a canary in the coal mine where people are expecting an economic slowdown. That seems to be one of the first areas they cut back. So if this number comes in weaker than expected, what does that say to you? Yeah, it's bad because Google ad spending should be more resilient than the rest of the ad industry because a lot of Google ad spending is performance related. You put a dollar in, you get a dollar fifty out. OK, now you put unlimited money because you're going to make
unlimited revenue if you're able to use those systems effectively as opposed to like big brand spend. We'll see some of that on YouTube. But for Google, mostly it's performance related. And if performance advertising comes down, there means that there's going to be a real slowdown in the economy. It's like the second thing
thing that you cut in your ad budgets when you cut brand and you see that's not working, then you say, OK, what can we cut? Maybe we cut performance. So again, I think Q1 is probably going to be untouched. Remember, Liberation Day, beginning of Q2, and it was worse than expected in terms of the amount of measures that would come in.
But what they say on the call today is going to be very important in terms of where they're looking, because they do have a pulse on the economy. They do know what the what the brands across the U.S. and worldwide are doing when it comes to spend. And that, of course, is correlated to anticipated economic behavior. So I would watch that very closely. All right. Alphabet, obviously, huge company. It is big enough unto itself. I want to take this a little bit broader.
The numbers and also the guidance and the commentary on the call from Alphabet, what is that a read into? Is it a read into the other hyperscalers? Is it a read into the rest of the tech sector? In your mind, what does it impact?
Yeah, again, I think it's a read into everything because a company like Alphabet, it touches the entire economy. It touches the small businesses that are trying to accelerate their business by using some advertising. It touches the startups that are trying to build infrastructure through cloud and the bigger companies that are looking to Google for things like workplace. So every company in the economy could potentially touch Google. Everybody uses Google. They use Google Drive. They use Gmail. They use Docs.
They use Google Sheets, especially if you're in business. So if Google is seeing a drawback there, I would say that's a problem. But I would put it in perspective to say we're about a month into this, into this Liberation Day moment. And every day we hear another thing about maybe there's going to be some negotiation or maybe there'll be some pullbacks. And I think it's still a little too early, even within Q2.
to fully assess what's going on. Now, there's definitely going to be a pullback because of all the uncertainty, but we've got two months left to the quarter, and I think Google will be a little bit hesitant before bringing in the prophecies of doom, but we'll see. Alex Kandrowitz, always great to see you. Thank you very much.
You too. Thank you. So Alphabet's not the only tech company reporting today. Intel also out after the bell shares pulling back more than 1% in the pre-market. This report, it marks the first under its new CEO. Christina Partsenevelis has much more on what to watch.
Intel's earnings report marks CEO Lipu Tan's first quarterly appearance since taking the helm of the struggling chipmaker. Tan hasn't wasted time making dramatic changes. Recent reports indicate he's cutting about 20% of Intel's workforce, that's nearly 22,000 employees, signaling his determination to streamline operations.
Despite Intel's challenges, including missing the AI chip boom and losing market share to AMD, its stock has actually outperformed this year, up about 2%, while the broader semiconductor SMH index has plunged about 18%. Analysts expect decent first quarter results thanks to PC sales pulled forward by tariff concerns,
But today's focus will squarely be on TAN's strategic vision rather than the numbers themselves. Options markets suggest an 8% stock swing in either direction following the report, which underscores both the uncertainty and opportunity ahead for Intel, though. With earnings expectations already low, Frank, investors are really focused solely on what the new CEO can deliver on cost reductions, efficiency improvements, and accelerated product timelines to really help regain lost market share. Frank?
break coming up here on worldwide exchange more of your morning's big money movers and what's creating some turbulence for shares of southwest ahead of the open you can see they're pulling back more than four percent we're back in just a moment and welcome back to worldwide exchange taking a look at futures right now you can see we're in the red across the board the s p and the dow pulling back about two-thirds of one percent the nasdaq down about three quarters of one percent however important to note they're off their lows over earlier this morning
And we'll take a look at the Dow laggards right now. IBM off of earnings pulling back about seven and three quarters of one percent. NVIDIA, Apple and Honeywell running out the worst performers on the Dow. Then we have the Dow leaders this morning taking a look at those as well. Salesforce right there at the top of the list. Those shares up over two percent, followed by Home Depot, Merck and Coca-Cola.
And right now, we want to take a moment to show you CNBC's newest subscription streaming product, the CNBC+, which you're currently seeing right now is our CNBC Plus data feed. It shows enhanced data and the latest headlines during our live programming. You can also stream this show and any of your other favorite CNBC shows anytime, anywhere, on the go, and also on demand. You can see headlines over here, down on the bottom, some stock tickers. So it makes it a little easier to follow some of the action in the pre-market or just throughout the day.
All right. Time now for your big money movers. We're going to start off with Southwest Airlines reporting a first quarter net loss on record revenue, but demand and sales weakened throughout the quarter, especially for domestic leisure travel. Shares of Southwest pulling back about 4 percent. Southwest is also pulling its earnings guidance for the year, expecting growth to slow in the second half, given the uncertainty about the overall economy. Southwest CEO Bob Jordan is going to be on squawk on the street for a first on CNBC interview at 930 a.m. Eastern time.
Whirlpool's first quarter earnings were in line with estimates, but the sales, they dropped about 19 percent, falling short of estimates. The appliance maker says tariffs have weighed on the business for the past two quarters, with the threat of retaliatory tariffs affecting results in Canada and Europe. But it expects President Trump's policies to help level the playing field to support U.S. manufacturing shares of Whirlpool. They're up over 3.5 percent.
Texas Instruments reporting strong first quarter results and is forecasting second quarter revenue above analyst estimates. The company's betting on robust demand for its analog chips, even as the threat of U.S. tariffs has created uncertainty across the industry. Shares of TI, they're up about four and a half percent right now.
All right, coming up, we've got the one word that every investor has to hear today and the stock pick that every investor needs to know. Plus, getting a real read into the American economy. We're going to talk to the CEO of one regional bank on the trends that he's seeing among his customers. We're going to be right back after this break. Stay with us.
Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. Shares of BOK Financial, they're down just about 2% this week. The regional bank, which offers services across several states in the mid and the southwest, reporting first quarter earnings on Monday that missed analyst estimates on lower performance in brokerage and trading activity and higher than expected loan paydowns. That offsets solid expansion in net interest margins and growth in fee income from other businesses. Joining me now is Stacey Kimes, president and CEO of BOK Financial. Stacey, good morning. Thank you for joining us.
Good morning. Glad to be here. All right. If you don't mind, let's start off talking about your results just a bit. So stocks moving a bit lower since earnings. One of the reasons is you actually lowered your full year fee and commission guidance. It was eight to eight hundred and ten to eight hundred thirty million. You lowered it down to seven seventy five to eight twenty five. You get about 40 percent of revenue from fees. What made you leave? What led you to that move, I should say?
Yeah, so we lowered the range. It's very volatile right now. So if you look at the trading revenue in the first quarter, January was a great month. February, the tariff discussion started to emanate from the executive branch. You saw more and more uncertainty among the trading groups. So February and March were very slow months for us. April has rebounded. So we'll see. What we did was we lowered the range. It's not easy to forecast that segment for us very well. But if you look at the other areas of the business—
went very strong. Our fiduciary asset management business grew over 10% year over year. So mortgage, despite a very tough market, is still growing for us. Our transaction card business is growing well.
So the trading revenue was really the miss for us this quarter. You know, we're really excited to talk to you to kind of get out the bubble of the coast and kind of get to the middle of the country. You have a big business and a lot of people call the Sun Belt. So I do want to ask you, when we're talking about economic activity in those areas, you loan to health care businesses and energy businesses. How are they seeing things? We were just looking at some of the data here at CNBC and on about 90 percent of earnings calls. We're hearing companies talk about recession. The companies that you work with, how are they seeing the economy?
Absolutely. Our base case at BOK Financial is not for a recession. If you look at our geographic footprint, we're in some great metropolitan markets. Dallas, Houston, Denver, Phoenix, Oklahoma is growing very well. So we're in a great regional footprint. And our borrowers are still very optimistic. Clearly,
All the discussion around tariffs and what the impact that that's going to have has created some uncertainty. And there's been a little bit of pause in economic activity. But for the most part, our borrowers are still very positive about the outlook. So you're positive about the outlook. One other thing, you reaffirmed your provision expense. You kept it the same, saying that credit looks very strong. It seems like in this environment, as you mentioned, you're mentioning a lot of the uncertainty. Why wouldn't you want to increase those provisions? Why wouldn't you want to give yourself some more cushion?
Well, we have very healthy reserves to start out with. If you look at the history of BOK Financial, particularly
recent history, we were the largest bank in the United States that didn't participate in TARP because we had extraordinarily strong credit outcomes relative to the market back during that period of time. So we are very strong from a credit underwriting perspective. Our discipline there is very strong, and we have a 1.4% allowance, which on a relative basis, particularly compared to, I think we had two basis points of charge off this quarter, is very, very strong. And so even as we look forward, our forward-looking banks
unemployment-based case for the end of the year is around 4.5%, I mean, 4.5% and 5%. And so that's very doable inside the allowance that we have today. Not worried about credit today. Credit is unsustainably good, and we're not anywhere close to really a reversion to normal.
I'm asking a lot of tough questions, Stacey. And again, we are very excited to talk to you just because of the region that your bank represents and the people that you cover. But I do want to point out a highlight from your report. You were able to expand net interest margin, a very key metric for profitability for every bank. What was the catalyst for that? Well, we've done a very good job of controlling deposit costs. We have a very strong liquidity base that's allowed us to manage deposit costs effectively.
The first quarter, the Fed wasn't moving. We continue to be able to slowly move deposit costs down, which allowed us to expand our
net interest margin. The other piece that's different for us is we have a very short duration securities portfolio. So that securities portfolio is repricing more rapidly than maybe other regional peers or other larger banks are able to reprice because we've got about a three to three and a half year duration of that portfolio. So that fixed income portfolio is repricing more quickly. That's also helping us expand our net interest margin.
One other question for you. When we're talking about your trading revenue, I know you said that was a weak spot in the last quarter, but when we're hearing from the big banks, the volatility has actually boosted their trading revenue because people are coming to professionals and experts looking for help. Do you expect that to improve as the year goes on? And hypothetically, we get more certainty about trade policy and tariff policy?
Certainly, as you get more certainty, that category will improve. I think for us, what's different than the money center banks is we don't have the equity trading or the foreign currency trading. Ours is really mortgage-backed securities trading. So it's a smaller sliver of that trading segment. And so where the larger money center banks have performed very well is really on the equity and foreign currency side of it with all of the volatility in the markets. The fiction thing outside has struggled in other banks as well. And we were certainly no different
I think if you look at where customers value our advice and counsel is really on the fiduciary side, where we're helping manage their retirement assets or their foundation or other assets. We've got $115 billion in assets that we manage for others. So that
That trusted advisor role that we play is really heightened in an environment like this where we can provide great counsel to our clients around what to do in this environment. Stacey, I imagine over recent weeks getting a lot of calls about retirement accounts. I'm sure the phones have been ringing. Stacey Kime, CEO of BOK Financial. Thank you so much for joining us. Hope to have you back.
Thank you very much. Appreciate it, Frank. Thank you. Have a great day. All right. Coming up here on Worldwide Exchange and under the radar, Pharma played our next guest calls her top investment idea. That stock up more than 20 percent this year. We will reveal our mystery chart coming up after this. Also, if you haven't already, you should follow the podcast. If you miss Worldwide Exchange, check us out on Apple, Spotify or other apps. We'll be right back.
As we close in on the 6 a.m. hour, check in a few big stories that we're following this morning. China this morning disputing that it's been holding trade talks with the U.S. The Commerce Ministry saying if Washington wants to resolve trade issues, it should lift all unilateral tariff measures. Shares of Chipotle, they're under some pressure this morning. Q1 revenue missing estimates and same-store sales declining for the first time since 2020. Chipotle also lowering the top end of its outlook for full same-store sales growth. Shares of Chipotle pulling back more than 3.5%.
Shares of IBM also under some pressure despite beating on the top and the bottom line as well as maintaining full-year guidance. IBM suggesting that economic uncertainty and U.S. government cost cuts may hit the company's business. Shares of IBM pulling back about 7.5%.
ServiceNow's earnings and revenue topping expectations. The company also raising its annual guidance. It says its government business is growing. Shares of ServiceNow, they're up over 9%, a best performer on the S&P in the pre-market. Also looking at shares of Caring this morning. They're sliding on a bigger than expected sales drop in the first quarter, fueled in part by continued struggles with its Gucci brand. Again, our European colleagues calling it a Gucci crisis. Shares of Caring pulling back about 5%. The luxury giant warning of possible job cuts with no signs of improvement in sight.
And new this morning, Bank of America cutting its price target on Apple down to 240 from 250, citing tariffs and AI delays. Shares of Apple right now pulling back just about 1%. The relief rally in the markets over the past two days appears to be fading a bit today as investors, they take stock of President Trump's back and forth stance on tariffs and on Fed chair Jay Powell. Joining me now is Lisa Thomas, deputy head of global research at TD Cow and Lisa. Good morning. Good to see you.
Great to see you. Well, as we see futures, they're lower, but off their lows of earlier today. Why don't we start off with your word of the day?
Sure. It's a reluctant word, and I may be projecting, but fragile. Fragile is the word we agreed on. I think coming out of two up sessions with the SEP that were really predicated on sentiment, as you said, we had some comfort around Chairman Powell. The market was happy to see that. Certainly, we have had some really solid and even strong earnings results, which have been great.
But it's all about the look forward, not the look back. And I think it's going to be really hard for the hope that the market wants to have to be maintained until we really start to get more concrete data about trade negotiations, progress and crystallization around the tariff outlook in particular. You know, Lisa, with that in mind, I want to play a soundbite from our Jim Cramer yesterday, what he said about the market and also the president's influence on it. Sure.
Right now, Trump owns Wall Street and only he can decide if that's going to be good thing or a bad thing. It's kind of plays into your fragile idea here or your fragile being word of the day. Do you agree with that take that right now earnings? We're seeing, you know, some positive outlook like a service now, for example, but others given a bit of a dreary outlook on the economy and the consumer. But do you agree it's really just the president that seems to be the driver?
Absolutely. There's no question. And I think that that certainly is going to cause bounces when we're hearing things from the president and the White House that are consistent with what the market wants, which is really consistency first and foremost. It goes in the other direction when we don't get that. But I think what the market is really getting to is a place of realizing that we do need to see concrete data bear out.
And and I think you're right. The voice of the president's what's dominating and what Wall Street responds to most positively is the voice of the president that is reflecting the input in particular of Secretary Besson. You know, one thing I want to ask you about our Fed is the Fed and Fed rate cuts. Your rate strategist actually moved up his outlook for the first rate cut to happen in June. It was previously in July. How big of a factor is the president in that, at least in his mind and your house for you?
Yeah, our rate strategist, Gennady Goldberg, has pulled forward the rate cut expectation. I think that the president's view is probably on the margin of factor. How could it not be, certainly? But I think that they are coming from the same things in the sense of saying, listen, we are going to have to be proactive here because the data inherently are backward looking. You really can't wait until you see that
the future reality perfectly reflected in the data, especially because we know that so much of the spend and the performance that we've seen for Q1 is really based on a lot of pull through where it's unclear how much of that is pull through. That's been the dominant conversation around all the earnings calls. And so I think that there will be some recognition of that. And with that, why don't we get to your pick? What is your pick for us today and why?
Sure. Well, you know, we really try to focus on durable investment themes at TD Callen, and we certainly view biopharma innovation as a really critical, enduring theme. You know, human need is not going away. And so we're interested in a stock that can give us exposure to that biopharma innovation and that growth, but in a way that is a little more protected and tariff resilient in this kind of environment.
So royalty pharma is a really interesting play. It's a royalty structure. The company negotiates guaranteed contractual royalties on future pharma revenue streams. Very, very diverse portfolio across many biopharma companies, many different underlying assets. So they get that yield, but they don't have to worry about
the tariff impact that an operating pharma manufacturer does. So it's a really interesting way to get some of that exposure, but in a much more protected way. All right. Lisa Thomas from TD Cow and your pick for us today, Royalty Pharma. Thank you very much. You have a great day.
Thanks for your time, Kim. All right, one more look at U.S. stock futures right now. Taking a look, we're in the red across the board, but again, important to note, we're well off of our lows of earlier. Right now, the S&P down under a half a percent, the NASDAQ down more than half a percent. The Dow looks like it would open about 250 points lower. That does it for us. Squawk Box starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Worldwide Exchange. You can always catch us live weekdays at 5 a.m. Eastern.
Introducing the new 2025 Ford Maverick truck. With in-bed power, up to 4,000 pounds of towing capability and elevated off-roading capability. The new 2025 Ford Maverick truck with a standard hybrid engine and available all-wheel drive. Ford. Make it with Maverick.
Max towing on all-wheel drive models with available Max trailer tow package excludes Maverick Lobo and Tremor models when properly equipped. Max towing varies based on cargo, vehicle configuration, accessories, and number of passengers. Always consult the owner's manual before off-roading. Know your terrain and trail difficulty and use appropriate safety gear.