The market is experiencing significant volatility, with the Dow up 183 points to 42,575, the NASDAQ up 230 points to 19,487, and the S&P 500 up 47 points to 5,915. Small caps are up about 0.5%, and crude oil is at $73.50, the highest in a while. Bitcoin is also up $513 to $97,016.
The VIX has been volatile due to tax selling, tax buying, and light trading volume typical of the end of the year. This has led to significant market swings, with the Dow down 150 points one day and up the next, reflecting the overall choppiness in the market.
Natural gas prices are rising due to a cold winter forecast, with temperatures expected to drop to 28 degrees in some areas. Additionally, the shutdown of the pipeline from Russia to Europe and a 22% price spike on Tuesday have contributed to the increase.
The nuclear energy sector is performing well, with companies like Vistra and Constellation Energy seeing significant gains. Constellation Energy recently won a $1 billion federal government clean energy contract, supplying 13 government agencies. The sector is transitioning from being viewed negatively to being seen as a clean, renewable energy source.
Rigetti is currently seen as the leader in the quantum computing sector, despite its high volatility. Other notable companies include Arquit Quantum (ARQQ), Coherent (COHR), IonQ, Marvell, D-Wave (QBTS), Quantum (QMCO), and Quantum Computing (QUBT). These companies range from micro-cap to large-cap and are part of a rapidly evolving sector.
The Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) provides exposure to a basket of quantum computing stocks, including companies like Rigetti, IonQ, and others. It offers a way for investors to gain diversified exposure to the quantum computing sector, which is highly volatile and still in its early stages of development.
Citadel's flagship hedge fund, managed by Ken Griffin, returned 15% in 2024. This performance is considered strong, especially given the fund's focus on hedging and high-frequency trading, which aims to provide steady returns and lower risk rather than beat the market.
The AI sector is being driven by advancements in autonomous driving and robo-taxis, with companies like Cerence (CRNC) seeing significant gains. Other major players include NVIDIA and Palantir, which are benefiting from the broader AI rally. The sector is expected to continue growing as AI applications expand across industries.
The oil and gas sector is showing strength, with BP posting eight straight sessions of gains. However, the sustainability of this trend is uncertain due to economic weakness in China. Natural gas, in particular, is seeing a surge in prices due to cold weather and geopolitical factors, making it a key area of focus.
The U.S. stock market is expected to see record earnings in 2025, with estimates around $282 per share, up from $60 per share in 2009. This growth has been driven by rising earnings every year since 2009, except for the COVID year and a few flat years, supporting the ongoing bull market.
He's been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He's the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He's president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager, Bill Gundersen.
And welcome to the Friday. It is the Friday, January 3rd, the live edition of the Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. I'm here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst. And what in the name of the VIX is going on in the market these days? Over the last week, the VIX, which is the volatility index, has just been all over the map.
The market was all over the map yesterday. We are off to a very strong start here this morning. With the Dow up 183, it's at 42,575.
The NASDAQ is up 230 right now. After a pretty weak day yesterday, Tesla kind of dragged on the NASDAQ a little bit, but it did finish in the positive. NASDAQ is at 19,487. The S&P 500 is up 47 right now to 5,915. Small caps are up about a half of a percent.
Last time I looked at the 10-year, it was steady. The 10-year is steady at 4.55. It's actually down just a little bit. 4.55% is where the 10-year is. Crude oil has got a little bit of life under it. I don't know how sustainable it is with the weakness in China. Crude is at 73.50. That's the highest we've seen it for a while.
And last but not least, Bitcoin is up 513 to 97,016.
So welcome to today's Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management, and I'm here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst. And so far, Barry, the end of the year, the last few days, this entire week actually, including last Friday, is when things started to get really volatile today.
And all of a sudden the volatility has kind of taken over the market, the VIX, the volatility index, the VXX. But in the meantime, it's a good VIX. It's a good kind of volatility today.
It's driving the market to the upside. I don't really see any catalyst out there. It's a steady uptrend. It's kind of interesting looking at that chart. You're always going to get these spikes, but you can draw a line underneath the end of December, and you've got kind of an upward sloping trend to the VIX here. Yes, the VIX has definitely gotten wild. Well, you know what? I mean, look, you have tax selling, you have tax buying, you have all kinds of different
coming into the market this time of year on light volume. So that's going to increase the volatility. Yesterday, the Dow was down 150. The Dow is now in a secondary downtrend. The primary trend is still an uptrend, okay? And if you're an investor, that's the one that you're most concerned with.
We're looking for record earnings. I heard somebody come out with $282 per share this year, 2025. $270 around in there is the consensus, and that would be a record haul for earnings once again.
And this all began back in 2009 when we were at $60 per share. And nothing explains this bull market since 2009 better than rising earnings every year since then, except for the COVID year and except for, you know, I think there was a couple of years where we were flat to just slightly down.
The NASDAQ yesterday was down 235. Actually, it didn't have a very good day, and then it's gaining that back today. All right, so that's why we call it volatility. That's where the volatility is coming from when you're down 250 one day and up 250 the next day. Overall, the charts of the Dow I sent out this morning and the NASDAQ and the S&P showing volatility.
that they've clearly broken the trend line that they set. They went on a torrid run, including Election Day and the days thereafter. Now they've broken that trend line, and now we're in a little secondary downtrend within a primary uptrend, meaning that that's a very volatile kind of trend.
And there's some shorter-term trading opportunities in here for sure right now with the volatility in the market. Wall Street extended its losing streak to five days yesterday. Maybe we'll end that here today. But we've had intraday volatility all week, too, or yesterday, too.
We were way up in the morning, Barry, and I don't know what happened. You know, I went outside, got some fresh air, came back in, and I thought, what the heck happened to the market? I'm not going outside anymore. That's not a good omen. It was all over. It was very, very choppy yesterday.
And who knows? You know, today's not over. We've got a lot of trading ahead of us. We've got six hours to try to hold on to these gains. We could see some volatility. Today's a big day in the new administration, wherein they vote for the Speaker of the House, Johnson, Mike Johnson, whether or not they'll support him. Trump has endorsed him.
Without that Speaker of the House elected, you can't certify the election on January the 20th. So we could get some volatility coming from there. We've had some volatility coming from internal. Some terrorism is back. When's the last time we had a terrorist attack? We've got to go way back.
And all of a sudden that's back into the mix with two. Whether they're connected or not, I don't know. It's very strange. But the one in New Orleans was definitely a tear-connected. Georgia Bulldog fans a little under the weather here today.
Notre Dame handled them. I don't like the playoff structure, Barry. It almost drags it out too much. I thought it was great when it got to four teams is plenty. I thought they did that well, but when you keep going...
It's ridiculous. I don't even know. I can't even tell you the four. I could tell you three out of the four teams maybe left. You know, it just seems like that. It's watered down. At this point in time, we should be down to the two teams. I think after New Year's Day and all the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl and all that, we should be down to the two teams.
I don't like this still having four teams left. And these poor college football players, I mean, they're not exactly getting paid the millions of dollars a year. It's got to beat them up. Now, I know there's a lot of money in it for the networks and for the NCAA and for, I guess, the schools involved and for the gamblers and gambling.
But I am not a fan at all of this current format that they have. Yeah, and we don't get them. I don't think we get the champion until the 20th of January now. So I believe that's when the final is going to be. For me, Oregon and I think Ohio State are probably the two best teams. And, of course, Oregon is eliminated today.
Penn State snuck in and somebody else. Yeah, we've got Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, and Notre Dame. So those are the four. I mean, they've got some pedigree in there, certainly with the names, right? They ended up in a place I think that they're probably happy with.
in terms of ratings and things of that nature, but it's kind of a slow slog to get here, I think. Yeah. Well, choppy is the name of the game in the market right now. Definitely choppy. The oil stocks have started off on the right foot here. BP has eight straight sessions of gains here.
If I were to mention the charts right now, the best charts in the market, the best sector in the market right now was the worst sector last year. That's the oil and gas sector. You've had a huge jump in natural gas prices. You've had a shutting down of the pipeline finally from Russia to Europe.
And you've got a very cold winter with the end of next week looking like, you know, we're 28 degrees I see here in the area.
In Charleston. So it's going to get really, really cold. That's driving natural gas prices higher. Yeah, that's that forecast that drove them up 22% on Tuesday morning. And, you know, I was talking about this on that show is that I think, you know, in terms of, you know, quote, unquote, Trump trade, to me, the one that's the cleanest in terms of, you know, in terms of you can get to a...
positive move for the underlying stocks is really kind of natural gas, right? Yes. Liquefying natural gas. Well, there's a moratorium right now on us exporting it, and they've just shut down the pipeline. That makes no sense whatsoever, so I'm sure Trump will get rid of the moratorium on us exporting our liquid natural gas, which we have.
We have just an almost unlimited supply of natural gas, and we convert the liquid and help Europe out and make some bucks, make some money for America at the same time. Yeah, and Chenier just had a news story, I think, on Tuesday that they opened up a new facility. Yes, it cranked out its first batch of liquid natural gas.
Coming to a bar near you soon. No, I'm just kidding. But anyways, LNG had a big day yesterday. The stocks and your energy. And next decade and a few others. I don't know how sustainable the energy thing is, though, with China. China's weakness. Especially for the oil and gas. I like the gas. Are you a diehard...
And welcome back here to the second quarter of today's Best Docs Now show. Well, the Surgeon General.
pushes for cancer warning labels for alcoholic drinks. Alcohol usage was cited by the U.S. Surgeon General as the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the U.S. after tobacco number one, obesity number two, alcohol number three. And of course, tobacco we've known about for quite some time.
The obesity, we do have help for that now with the weight loss drugs. And the alcoholic drinks, I'm not a drinker myself, but obviously the Surgeon General says that alcohol contributes to 100,000 cancer cases and 220,000 cancer deaths every year.
So will we see warnings? Not only the, you know, the foreign, the booze from outside of the U.S. going to be hit with tariffs. Now it could be that they'll have warning labels on them.
uh about cancer surgeon general's warning s&p 500 returns on the first trading day of year poor barometer for annual performance okay well you know what i mean i just don't think that you can take any one day yeah right and say well okay i do think there is a barometer though that we had yesterday and that was the vix um
I do think we'll see a lot of volatility this year. Particularly in the first three months of the year. I mean, you've got a new administration coming in. You're going to have lots of stories about who's getting in the cabinet, who's not going to make it with votes, right? What's going on in the first hundred days? What's the real focus of what's going to be? What's it going to look like? Doge.
Yeah, and there's going to be pluses. I mean, you're going to be making along the way, right, winners and losers in the market. And so I think we will have a little bump in the road. Yeah, absolutely. It's going to be choppy. And I just think, I guess the word that came to me yesterday is I have to manage a little bit tighter this year.
And, you know, not let things get away. Not that I did last year, but I just think I have to be even tighter this year because of the volatility and some of the wild swings that we could get here in 2025.
So that takes, it's time consuming, it takes vigilance, but you know, that's what we're all about here. So anyways, very choppy start to the market. Biden blocks the U.S. steel sale to Japan. You know, he's making a lot of really big decisions with just 17 days left. Right before, yeah. Why, you know, you had four years to do all this. He wants to shut down through an executive order, right?
Much of the oil and gas areas that are very lucrative with lots of oil and gas in them, he wants to do an executive order which would be very hard to reverse in his last days in office. This is kind of...
I don't know. I'm not a fan, obviously. Blocking U.S. deals, well, Trump wants to block the sale. I mean, look how times have changed. You go back to World War II and the attack on Pearl Harbor and all this and that. One of the reasons that we came out on top is we had the natural resources, the oil and gas, the steel, et cetera, that Japan didn't have.
to sustain a long war. So, I mean, there's some of that, you know, do you want to, of course, we've been, they've been one of our closest allies now. Times have changed a lot. So, anyways, under America First policy, I think you would block that U.S. deal going to Japan.
So anyways, and like I say, Biden is poised to block more offshore oil drilling before Trump takes over.
And I don't think Biden is done yet. I mean, I think he's going to do more things before his time is up, which is, you know, his days are numbered here. 17 days left. I don't know when, I guess that's when he actually has to move out and turn over the keys to the White House. It was a huge monster day for the nuclear stocks yesterday. Holy cow.
Vistra and Constellation Energy, our dividend portfolio had a very good day yesterday. And both are following up today. Yes, Constellation made a big deal with the government yesterday.
So now Microsoft has a big deal with Constellation. The government, everybody's staking out of positions so they don't run out of energy, except for the consumer, I guess, the little guys. Yeah, maybe our air conditions. They've got themselves taken care of. Constellation wins a $1 billion federal government clean energy contract. Shares rise.
So anyways, Constellation will supply more than 13 government agencies and perform energy savings. So, you know, there's just more proof that the nuclear has moved from the bad side of the ledger to the good side, the clean, renewable energy side of the ledger. Constellation is sitting in a very good spot. We've owned Constellation.
And Vistra. That's what we like in dividend paying stocks. We don't like 13%, 14%, 15% dividends that come with extremely high risk and probably are not going to deliver that dividend when it comes to total return. Total return is what it's all about. Give me a smaller dividend yield. Constellation's dividend yield is a half a percent.
uh vistra's dividend you but it's it's a dividend but the look at the look at the capital appreciation over the years the stock market 90 of your returns have come from capital appreciation and these people that are trying to get those returns through dividends only
That's a fool's game. Vistra is breaking out today. Constellation is breaking out. And I saw a lot of those small nuclear stocks like SMR, Oklo, etc.,
They're having a good day also, and I think that's going to continue to be a playable, viable sector in the market this year, nuclear, not only for investing like we have in Vistra and like we have in Constellation. We also have some small in the emerging growth portfolio, some of the smaller nuclear, but trading also.
The nuclear sector is going to present some very good trading opportunities along the way also. These are very small, some of them very, very small companies, but they're signing deals with big technology companies. The other sector that had a very good day yesterday, and when we come back I want to talk about it,
There's definitely one leader emerging in that quantum space and several good runner-ups, too, in that quantum space. It had a big day. We'll check in on it and see if it's following through today. This is the Best Stocks Now show. We'll be right back. Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey,
This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today's Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can. To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersonCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show. Music
And welcome back here to the second half of today's Best Docs Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson.
And Barry Kite, our Chartered Financial Analyst at Gundersen Capital Management. The quantum sector kind of came out of nowhere in the fall of last year, maybe even the winter, I think. And it started really with Amazon announcing that they would be investing heavily in quantum computing.
And I have now created, I have a little watch list of, I want to say, 11, 10, 10 or 11 quantum-related stocks. There it is right there. And I think the leader right now is Rigetti. Even though, talk about volatility. Oh, man, it's like up 10% one day, down 12 the next day, up 9. But I think Rigetti is definitely up.
kind of stamped itself as the leader. But here's the 10 stocks that I watch on a daily basis in that quantum computing. There's also an ETF that is quantum. Okay, number one is ARQQ. I'm just going to do them in alphabetical order here. ARQQ is Arquit Quantum.
It is a $266 million company. So I just want to put that in perspective. That's a micro cap. So these really, are they investable for the long term right now? Maybe there's a few. But in the interim, I think this whole sector is kind of being sorted out right now. You know, the winners will start to rise up. The cream rises to the top, so to speak.
Because they don't have any sales or earnings yet. I mean, these companies are just really laboratories and, you know, that are hoping that someone will come along and use their services. Our kit is one of those. It's out of the U.K. Now, the second one here, Coherent, is definitely, that's an established company. That's a $16.1 billion company out of Pennsylvania, right?
And it definitely has an investable company, C-O-H-R. They've been around for a long time, kind of in the electronic parts business, but they're also part of that quantum computing sector right now as far as kind of the picks and shovels. And that one there is definitely more investable than just trading. IonQ has also kind of emerged here as a...
a leader, it actually has sales and those sales are starting to take off. They develop trapped ion quantum computers for the purpose of commercial, industrial, and academic applications. They have sales over the last four quarters, sales up 60%, sales up 77%, sales up 106%, sales up 102%. I'd put that right up there with Regetti.
And that stock's trading at 45. This is almost a, this is a $9.7 billion company already. This would fit down in that emerging growth category, you know, if you were looking for, you know, where it fits. This is not a dividend payer. This is not a large cap growth company.
This is not even a triple A. This is way down there at single A, kind of. I-O-N-Q. But one of the best ones right now in that sector. Marvell is a big one. That's a large cap. $100 billion company.
They are part of this quantum move. They design microprocessors, semiconductors for data centers, networking, telecom, consumer markets. That's where some of that quantum fits. Then there's D-Wave, QBTS. That's a $1.6 billion company. It's down there at the smaller end. It's highly volatile.
They do have some sales, very little, but it's definitely emerged. Then there's a stock just called Quantum, QMCO. They're more in the storage of the Quantum, on the Quantum side. This is a little one, micro cap, $250 million in market cap. Then there's the Defiance Quantum ETF, where this would contain all of these stocks in it.
And its symbol is QTUM, Quantum ETF. Okay, then the next one I have is Quantum Computing, QUBT. That's a $2 billion company. No sales, no earnings whatsoever yet. It's still out there on the horizon. This is the one out of Hoboken, New Jersey, home of Frank Sinatra.
uh... quantum computing then there's radiant no not radiant rad net which is out of israel no it's out of los angeles uh... actually rad net uh... is uh... kind of on the medical side of quantum computing uh... and then you've got reggetti reggetti's now a three point six billion dollar company they do have some sales very little in the way of sales and those are the ten right now that i'm tracking
talk about if they had a VIX on the quantum computing. Well, in individual stocks, you call that beta. You can look up the beta of any stock. If a stock has a beta of 2.0, that means it's two times as volatile as the S&P 500. So if we look up the beta right now on Rigetti,
Which I get. The beta is 3.36. There you go, yeah. 3.36 times. So that means keep a bottle of Tums.
Rolaids, whatever your favorite antacid is. Yeah, the average standard deviation or volatility for the S&P is 15. So that would be, what, times 3, close to 45? Yes. Meaning...
68% of the outcomes will end up between 45% and negative 45%. Well, that was part of my continuing education, and I know beta very well. There is a, now, okay, so there's all kinds of angles at investing. There's an ETF out there, Hibs, H-I-B-S, which, believe it or not, is inverse the high beta stocks.
So you get into any kind of a correction in the market, guess who's going to get hit the hardest? The high beta stocks. And so I have Hibs. Just ask Kathy Wood. Yes, I have Hibs, and SARC would be another one, which is in. Although she's lowered. I've noticed the beta on her fund has come down.
I think she's gotten a little religion or something in that high beta, you know, the gospel of high beta. I've got to look at the makeup of her 8% return. I think you said yesterday it was around 8%. It would have to be. I'm thinking, you know, given last year, I would have expected...
particularly towards the end of the year with some of those quantum names. And, you know, I would have expected a bigger pop there. You'll have to look up her top ten holdings these days. I know Roku is still there. Roku actually did okay last year. Now, the other one is AI, all right? And I have my AI stocks here separated off into –
a chart category and there's quite a few. There's more AI stocks than there are quantum stocks by quite a long shot. And there's a new one that's a new shooter entering the field today. There's my AI sector. How many do I have? I have 20 stocks in AI. I'm not going to go through those today. We'll do that another day. A lot of the AI stocks are big ones. Microsoft obviously is not a startup company.
But there's a little one here today called Cerence CRNC. We actually had somebody transfer this stock in. I've kept it for them because I said this is interesting. Cerence is very much related to autonomous driving, robo-taxis.
which I think is going to be another theme. Maybe we'll get the breakthrough this year in robo-taxis. I mean, they're already running around San Francisco and Phoenix and other cities. We just haven't made that breakthrough yet with the robo-taxis. But Sarens develops automotive software.
And it's definitely now in the AI. It's up 63% today. Wow. CRNC. CRNC. That whole AI rally is on today. I mean, I was looking down the list of names that we own that were, you know. On fire. Well, you've got NVIDIA up. You've got Palantir up. You've got Constellation Energy and Vistra up. Yeah, the nuclear stocks. The whole theme is up.
And the smaller nuclear stocks, right? And quantum. Yes. Okay, when we come back, the most successful hedge fund out there, I would say the most well-known one, how did it do last year? We'll use that as kind of a benchmark as to how you did last year.
Kind of an interesting number. And then we'll get into Hindenburg's latest shot across the bow. We'll be right back. You've got to go where you want to go. Do what you want to do. And then do it all again.
And welcome back here to the final segment of today's Best Docs Now show. Well, Ken Griffin Citadel, his flagship fund, he's probably the most successful hedge fund manager out there today. He moved his base of operations out of New York to Florida, along with the rest of Wall Street, just about. His flagship fund was up 15% last year.
So, you know, look, they do a lot of hedging. They do a lot of high-frequency trading. High-frequency. They do a little bit of everything. Yeah. I mean, hedge funds really aren't out to beat the market. I mean, they would love to beat the market, yes.
But I think they're probably more, you know, to give you a good, steady return over the years and lower the risk a lot. I think that's probably more a better way to describe a hedge fund. So 15% is what he did last year. Now, I'm looking, I'm finalizing our returns for last year. Our ultra-growth fund did extremely well, okay?
It's going to end up somewhere in the 35% to 36% area for the year. The S&P was up 23.3%, somewhere in there. Now, I'm also adding a column. That's the gross return, all right? That's if you were managing it by yourself without management fees and doing all your own trading and following along and everything like that. But I also have the column net returns here.
Which would be after our heaviest fee, which is what, Barry? Under a certain amount, you pay 2%. Yeah, 2%. And most hedge funds are going to have what they call 2 and 20, which means they're going to charge 2%. It doesn't matter how much money you have with them. Exactly.
And they're going to take 20% of the profits. Of the profits, which that's a big hit. That's a huge hit. It could be very big, right? I mean, well, if I took 20% of the profits, that's 7%. That would take your return down to 28%, and then minus 2% fees, 26%. I'm giving folks hedge fund-like benefits.
protection, exposure, for better or worse. You know, on one hand, it can dilute your returns. On the other hand, it can enhance your returns. But overall, you're trying to provide a bit of a safety net.
uh in vigilance and i was probably a little more cautious around the election which i felt was warranted i really did okay so well and you're in a good place to be cautious because we i mean we came out of the gate screaming i think the portfolios as a whole were up you know closer to you know almost to that uh close to that 20 percent range in the first three months of the year oh man yeah you had some uh you had some ability to coast and and and you know
raise some cash and be a little bit more cautious going into what was an epic election. Yes. So, yeah, so net return would be, now, our average fee, you know, is not 2%. That's our stiffest fee. That's for people that have under $250,000 with us. And we have a scale that goes down to, you know, 1%, even a half a percent at certain levels.
Okay, our little emerging growth portfolio had a fantastic year. I mean, it's going to come in somewhere around 47%, 48%. That's gross. And then we'll include the net in there over the years. And then the dividend portfolio did pretty well. I think it's going to come in around 21%, somewhere in there. And the large cap is going to come in around 20%, large cap growth.
uh and there was a lot of protection put in there along the way we don't want to see that 53 percent drop to your portfolio now if it happens overnight you know there's nothing we can do about that but you know if the economy starts to weaken if the
If earnings start to weaken, we're going to take defensive action against occurrences like that. So anyways, the newsletter this Saturday will have the final results. I have a lot. I have a lot. That's calculations to work on. Oh, Lord, I better have a sharp mind here this weekend, today, tomorrow. Now, I did freeze everything on Wednesday on 1231, all of the final prices there.
I set that aside, and that's what I'll be using is showing where we ended for the year. Unfortunately, we ended kind of on the low because of those few days right before the market. That took about 3% or 4% right in the last few days of the year, which...
And now we're back up. We've regained those points. But December 31st, when the bell rings, that's what we use. That's what we use in everybody, the mutual funds, the ETFs, et cetera, for your year-to-date performance. Unfortunately, it did end on a low note and doesn't really kind of reflect
What a good year we really did. It does. I mean, we had a good year, but it was even better. Now we're back to where we were before this sell-off, right going into the holidays. Well, anyways, we're having a lot of fun over here. I've sent out several messages here this morning, updates on the charts, and
updates on the volatility. I'll be sending out a lot of updates throughout the day on my observations. I did a little bit of buying and selling, quite a bit actually yesterday.
And I just think that things have to be managed a little tighter this year. Don't go to sleep. Don't be asleep at the wheel in a passive portfolio. I think that could be very tough this year.
You know, things can happen very quickly, and you could say, oh, I wish I would have listened to Gunnarsson and managed my portfolio a little bit tighter in 2025. Last year, you know, we pretty much had our pedal to the metal, and then we kind of took it off track.
The accelerator was we headed into what I consider to be a very volatile period of time leading up to that election. You could see how razor thin, you could see how different outcomes, you could see how a tie or a big controversy could have created a lot of volatility.
And the market had already hit 50 all-time highs at that point, right, in 2024, even leading up to that. And we enter this year with the P.E. ratio of the NASDAQ that's gone from 20 to 37. So I have all of that to take into consideration.
But at the end of the day, I'm just going to give you the simple formula. It comes down to one stock at a time. I make a lot of little small decisions instead of one big massive decision, which a lot of people out there call and sell everything, and then they're out, and then they're in. No, you know, it's a market of stocks, and you have to, just like patients, if you're a doctor,
You manage every patient individually because they all have different characteristics, different needs, different risk tolerances, etc. So that's how I do it. One day, one stock at a time, knowing what the backdrop is behind me. Okay, to get four free weeks of the trial, join in on the fun. Go to GundersenCapital.com to set up an appointment with us. This is very time-consuming stuff.
Set up an appointment at 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST. Have a great day, everybody. This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.