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cover of episode Friday May 23, 2025 - Trump vs. Cook

Friday May 23, 2025 - Trump vs. Cook

2025/5/23
logo of podcast Best Stocks Now with Bill Gunderson

Best Stocks Now with Bill Gunderson

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Bill Gundersen: 我认为特朗普的贸易政策,特别是他对苹果、欧盟等采取的强硬态度,给市场带来了不确定性和紧张情绪。我对特朗普与特定个人或机构的争斗感到不满,认为这显得小气。虽然黄金在贸易动荡时期表现良好,但整体而言,这些政策对市场不利。我目前持有较多观望资金,因为与欧洲达成协议将非常困难,涉及地缘政治、国防和贸易等多种因素。我最不喜欢特朗普的地方是他与特定个人或机构的争斗,并且不肯罢休。特朗普对欧盟提高关税的威胁,使我们又回到了需要贝桑介入调解的局面。欧盟不喜欢特朗普。我认为公司的CEO应该倾向于雇用美国工人。我不认为应该强迫像蒂姆·库克这样的CEO将生产线搬回美国。苹果公司缺乏创新,可能需要更换领导层。即使没有关税问题,苹果的股票表现也不佳。30%的关税导致海报板的价格飞涨。特朗普禁止外国学生入学的行为看起来很小气。我担心取消或削弱美联储的独立性,因为总会有新的政府上台。英伟达面临的许多障碍已经减少,因为特朗普政府对中国采取了更宽松的政策。所谓的“大美法案”实际上削减了开支。太阳能股票正在遭受重创,因为政府将加速淘汰太阳能补贴。Flutter的五年期债券收益率为5.125%,非常有吸引力。特朗普将签署一项命令以促进核工业的发展,核能股因此飙升。 Dan Ives: 我认为如果苹果完全在美国生产iPhone,那么价格将达到3500美元,而且需要五年时间才能在美国建立工厂。苹果在美国生产iPhone的想法是不切实际的。 Waller: 我认为如果关税稳定在10%左右,美联储就可以开始降息。 Apollo: 我们观察到穆迪下调美国债务评级,增加了借贷成本。持续的关税负面影响、贸易协议的不确定性和贸易战、企业规划的高度不确定性、企业信心不足、由于沃尔玛等商店的价格上涨,消费者支出放缓、目前消费者信心处于历史低位、目前旅游业不景气、美国国内对特朗普的强烈反对、学生贷款偿还重新开始,这会减少经济中的资金、由于抵押贷款利率上升,住房需求减弱、道奇公司解雇政府工作人员。 Societe Generale: 我们认为日本债券市场的动荡可能引发全球金融市场的剧变。

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The market experienced a downturn, with the Dow and NASDAQ significantly down, largely due to Trump's threats against Apple. However, gold showed resilience, proving to be a solid hedge against market turmoil.
  • Dow down 277 points
  • NASDAQ down 218 points (1.2% drop)
  • Apple under threat due to manufacturing location
  • Gold up 1.34%, acting as a market hedge

Shownotes Transcript

He's been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He's the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He's president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gundersen.

And welcome to the Friday, it is the Memorial Day weekend edition of the Best Stocks Now show on this May 23rd, 2025. And may we all remember what Memorial Day is really about.

It's not water skiing and fishing. Yeah, that's all the things we do, but remember what Memorial Day is all about. We've got the Dow down 277 today as Trump threatens...

Tim Cook, he threatens Apple, he threatens Harvard, he threatens the EU, and on and on and on. And that's got the markets a little nervous. Dow down 277. The NASDAQ is down 218. That's a 1.2% drop. I didn't see much that was really down, however. It was mostly Apple with the threats against them.

about refusing to bring any of their manufacturing to the U.S. The S&P is down 86 basis points right now to 5,791. Small cap's down 1% right now. I did notice that the 10-year is back to where it was before the Moody's downgrade of our debt.

It did get up above 4.6 there for a while and now it's back to 4.50. So right back where we started from. We have Bitcoin down a little bit. It's at 108,000 after hitting a new all-time high yesterday of 111,000 and change.

The big mover today, and it's been good to us, it's the best hedge when this turmoil hits. Trade turmoil hits is gold. Gold is up 1.34% today, which is easing the pain for us quite a bit here today. Nice hedge. It's kind of been one of the only persistent hedges. Welcome to the Best Stocks Now show.

on this Friday, beginning of a three-day weekend. I officially proclaim it a four-day weekend as it begins now, you know, as you think about what you're going to do this weekend. My wife is headed off to Atlanta to see the San Diego Padres play the Atlanta Braves. I was just a little bit...

You know what? I don't know that I could stand in another TSA line right now. That's the worst part of travel. I was shocked when I got to the Cleveland airport at 3.30 a.m. and arrived there in the departure area, and the line was down the block for TSA. I mean, really, really long, which was surprising because Cleveland's a pretty quiet airport, actually.

And then, you know, I finally get up there to where they look you in the eye and then they look at your ID and they said, you've got to go redo your ticket. And I said, what are you talking about? They have one day off. I was off by one day on my birth date. Instead of January 18th, they had January 19th. You mean to tell me I can't get on a plane?

I'm a threat because of that? What kind of... Now, I didn't say this to the TSA guy or I might not be here today. Yeah, you said this on the way back to the counter, bro. Oh, God. You know what? That is just stupidity. I mean, that is bureaucratic stupidity. But anyways...

Got home, and here we are today. And they love your equipment, by the way. And I'm sure they love your radio equipment that you can take through there. They were okay, and the meatballs I smuggled home from Red Steakhouse, they were happy about. The drug-sniffing dog was a little on the edge there with those in my suitcase. But anyways, here we are today.

And I expect a quiet day in the market, although it has started off kind of with a big downward move. The true social message kind of. Trump's in the threatening mood. And I have to say...

So that's the thing I like less, the least about Trump is when he picks these fights against certain individuals or certain institutions and just won't let off. I mean, he's got it in for Harvard. Now Harvard, that's going to go to court. He's got it in for Tim Cook and he's going to just continue to rail on Tim Cook.

And he's got it in for Apple. He's going to continue. And, of course, the EU, he's threatening to raise the tariffs to 50 basis points. So we're kind of back to where we need Besant to enter the picture here.

He did. He actually spoke real quick. He had a quick comment maybe about an hour ago, and it kind of quieted things down a bit. He's a little more diplomatic than our president, I would just say. And today tends to be one of those, from a volume standpoint, it tends to be a very light volume day. So to start out with some headlines like that, it was, oh, my God.

All the big institutional money managers and head fund managers are standing in TSA lines right now. That's where they're at mostly or driving somewhere. Driving to the Hamptons. Yes. We did have a very soft day in the market yesterday. I mean, the Dow was down one point. After all of that, I said, why did I even come to work today?

But the 10-year was down four basis points. Bitcoin hit an all-time high, $111,000.

And 69, which is pretty incredible. Okay, today I guess there's a couple big news items that are driving the market south a little bit. Trump pushes EU to lower tariffs or face more levies. The EU does not like Trump. Okay, let's just call a spade a spade. The EU as a trading bloc does not like Trump.

He's pressing them to unilaterally lower tariffs on American goods, warning that without such a concession, negotiations to avoid additional 20% reciprocal duties will stall. And he's got his big boys on this one now, working with the EU, Jameson Greer.

They want some action on this. The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on EU cars, steel, and aluminum in March, followed by 20% tariffs on other EU products. Then he halved them until July the 8th, creating a 90-day window for both sides to negotiate tariffs.

And that's where I hope that enters stage door left, stage right. Hopefully Besset will get in there and smooth things out a little bit. The EU so far has merely offered a reciprocal tariff reduction rather than pledging to lower duties alone.

So anyways, we always knew that Europe would be a very tough block to deal with. And he said it himself. Trump has said it himself. Next month, Greer and his counterpart from the EU are going to meet in Paris. So that would be in June. That will be a crucial test of whether or not the two... I say Sen Besant...

Well, and send Besson over there. I mean, we're more intertwined, obviously, not just from, say, an economic standpoint. We know the China deal will be tough, but that's primarily economically. And when you look at Europe, there's obviously geopolitical defense, trade, right? There's a million, lots of different factors intertwined within a deal with Europe. So I've always kind of thought that one's going to be one of the

tougher pieces to hit just because of so many different facets of that particular agreement. It's kind of like deja vu all over again. We're going a little bit back to March 8th, and of course that was the low of the market. The 90-day negotiation window with Europe is set to expire on July 8th. So the clock is ticking, but we've got plenty of time.

They'll work it out. I feel strongly they'll work it out. And that's one of the reasons you've been holding a little bit more dry powder. I mean, as you kind of go through these, you know, as you go through...

these different 90-day periods, at some point, right, you create a little bit more uncertainty and then something's going to shake out. But the trick is, what's the timing of that? Yes, and I have taken on a little bit different tactic here recently. Normally, I buy 4% or 5% positions in stocks.

So a portfolio ends up being 20 to 25 stocks. During this time of uncertainty, I've been taking 3% positions, just a little bit less to not really, you know, I just dip my toe in the water. Three is still a pretty big position.

When you consider that an index, let's say the S&P 500 is a very small position. That's 0.2%. I'm taking a 3% position these days. And I'll say one other thing. I was really in the buying mood. I got off the plane. I got home right after the market opened, not too far long after it. And I did do a lot of buying yesterday.

And the reason, my main reasoning behind it, I think we've had one big uncertainty taken off of our plate, and that was the passing, at least by the House. The market really does not like unknown tax policy. And that tax policy, you know, I mean, it's almost a certain thing now that those Trump tax cuts, for better or for worse, are going to stay in place forever.

And, you know, they really wanted to keep the growth part of the big, beautiful bill intact.

and they did that, and the House amazingly agreed on something. And that does take a bit of uncertainty off the table. I do think that it's, you know, I think the Senate will definitely pass that big bill, and then we can go on to other worries, which we'll talk about here in a moment. This is the Best Docs Now show. ♪♪♪

Oh, what's going on? What are you feeling? I've had a thought, my love.

All right, get out your worry towel. You remember the basketball coach, Jerry Tarkanian. Tark the shark used to chew on his towel. By the end of the game, there was very little left of that towel. I'm going to tell you one other little quick analogy here. When I was growing up in San Diego, we used to go to the Imperial Valley, which was about two hours away, to go pheasant hunting.

in the alfalfa fields. And we had a little bird dog, Brittany Spaniel, that never had any training at all. He just knew how to do it. He knew what to do. There was bread in him. He would bounce through that alfalfa field, which is, you know, alfalfa is not a low plant. It's at least 18 to 24 inches high. Every once in a while, his little head would pop up. But then he would start making a big circle.

And each circle would get smaller and smaller and smaller. And then he would stop and come to a point, and that pheasant would come flying out of that, fleeing out of that alfalfa for his life. I like in the stock market, you know, I kind of spend Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday going through the alfalfa, and my subscribers will see my head pop up every once in a while, and I'll say, I'm looking at this one, or I like the looks of this one, but I'm not ready to pounce yet.

Thursday is usually my busiest day in the market, and yesterday was very busy. I'm going to guess that I made at least 10 buys of stocks that we already own that I bought for new people that don't own them yet. And then I think I bought one or two brand new stocks yesterday. That's all going to be in the newsletter this weekend, but I went on point.

And those stocks flushed, and I pressed the trade button, the buy button, and bam. So I just want to let you know that, you know, you think maybe I'm not doing anything on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. No, that's when the real work is taking place. And Thursday a lot of time is the trigger day.

where I pull the trigger and make the final decisions on a lot of those stocks. The nuclear stocks really look good to me right now, once again. Through the roof today. Yeah, because of what Trump... Trump is very much pro-nuclear. I saw some really good action in the big ones and the small ones.

The quantum stocks had a very good day yesterday, very good day, and a very good week. But they still make me a little nervous. You've got to understand that that is way off. That's a Cathie Wood type stock. It's a long duration. Maybe someday it will be profitable.

Maybe not. So, you know, that should not be bought in a conservative. Those are trading stocks as far as I'm concerned. I was going to say, because, I mean, where you've got to look at is in the inherent volatility of them. They're not a buy and hold. They might be one you own five times from now until 2030, whenever SMR actually has. That's the way I look at them right now. I look at them as very, very volatile.

Okay, now let's take a look here. There is a lot going on here, obviously. I've got to get my notes up here. Barry, talk for a minute. Oh, yeah, no, we got the... I mean, I was... You said that you had the... Talking about Europe, I saw where Denmark raised their retirement age to the highest in the world. So it'll be...

68 if... I think they went to 70. Didn't they go to... Yeah, but they're doing it incrementally. So 68, it'll be 2030. And 69, it'll be 2035 before reaching 70 in 2040. So...

They're trying to maintain that pension, and they have an aging population. And so that's just kind of some news that I saw today from a planning standpoint. It was like, well, we are living longer. We need to, for whatever reason, that is the third rail of politics, is to not even talk about Social Security and Medicare, which...

aren't on a real sustainable course. And it seems to me that at some point, whether we like it or not, we're going to have to address that. And to me, that would be the natural, the least painful thing

uh way and the least controversial way to uh you know give ours a little bit of a boost would be to move the ages forward a few years on everything would that create a total backlash would that be a losing hand when you go to run for re-election as a party if you were to touch that i don't know

But that seems to me like if you're going to do it, and I think at some point they're not going to have a choice. Well, the problem is they've shown it. The easiest way to show it and the most proper way to show it is mathematically. Mathematics. Right? That doesn't mean anything to Washington. It doesn't work.

Exactly. They don't believe in mathematics. They need opinion. You've got to have some opinion because it's more of a gray area than it is if it's mathematics, right? Yeah. This is going to run out on this day if you keep doing this, right? Well, they keep trying to convince me that the new math says that you can take in $4 trillion and spend $6 trillion and everything's going to be okay. Right.

That's new math, all right. Now, okay, the other one that is in the headlights or in the crosshairs of Trump today, Apple dives as Trump says tariffs must be paid on iPhones not made in the U.S. That's a big deal. Now, he's threatening that. That is not – if you go to the AT&T store today or the Apple store or Verizon or whatever the case may be, you're not going to have to do it.

But he is not happy. He said, I long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhones that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States of America, not India or any place else. Well, in my book, a CEO of a company should have the say, right?

He should lean towards hiring American workers and whatnot. I don't know that you can force somebody, but he has done the same thing with the auto industry, really, I mean, with Mexico and Canada. And they are bringing their Mexican operations here, and so are the Japanese car makers here.

And what do you think out there? Our listeners, should a president of the United States force a CEO like Tim Cook, who's spent billions of dollars setting up these plants? Moving it to India. Well, first to China and now to India. And he's wanting them to bring it to America. And I don't think it's a good idea to force. But...

The tariff part, I suppose, you know what? Okay, if you make that decision, then when you go to import those phones into the U.S., but that just opens the door to a Samsung. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know if I like that or not. But anyways, the two of them met recently, and Trump says he's building all over India now.

He says, I don't want you building in India. But he said as a result of their conversation, Apple will be upping their production in the United States. I don't know of what, but Apple said in February that it would invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years. And I just don't see Cook...

not going forward with his India plans and bringing it to the U.S. We'll be right back. This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today's Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can.

To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersenCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show. The Instigator Because there's something we've got to get together soon

And welcome back here to the second half of today's Best Stocks Now show. Apple remains a soggy stock. Not only has it become a single-digit growth. Hey, maybe it's... I've been saying this for a long time. Maybe it's time for a change. Of course, you know, Cook, I guess, was a pretty important guy under Jobs there and...

He's ran it and there just has not been much innovation. We have no exposure to Apple whatsoever. That's not a good chart at all on Apple. It's down another 2.3% today. Yet it's one of the most widely held stocks. Everybody thinks, oh I own Apple, how could you not own Apple?

Well, you know, okay, they have not. Number one, before this take away the controversy with the tariffs on iPhones made outside the U.S., they'll come to some kind of agreement. But it was not a good stock before that. Wedbush is not happy. Wedbush does not like Trump. You can put them on the side of those that can't stand the man, I suppose, Biden.

What's his name? Dan Ives. C-E. Not Dan Ives. Yeah, Dan Ives. Yeah, Dan Ives. Okay. You'd know if you could see him because you could see the blinding colorful shirt. Yes, he always wears. He's a colorful guy trying to get attention. He says if they were to build iPhones entirely in the U.S., it would have roughly a $3,500 price point. I don't know how they figure that out.

but that's the math that they do on it. And he says it would take about five years to build those plants here in the U.S., so it's totally a non-starter. He says, we believe the concept of Apple producing iPhones in the U.S. is a fairy tale that is not feasible. Okay, and you're heading into iPhone 17 production this fall.

So they need to get it worked out. Now, coming from Apple's point of view, and one of the downsides of offshoring...

your manufacturing i asked my uh... my nephew uh... the phd from stanford and harvard who worked alongside with clay christiansen the guy on uh... on uh... technologies disruptive technologies i said what would clay christiansen have to say about offshoring your product and he says well

He would say, you don't want to offshore your product because they're going to steal your ideas from you. Especially when they're manufacturing your product. They know every little bit of your product. And that's exactly what happened to Apple. Apple's business is so bad in China that they're offering trade-in discounts on new iPhones because Huawei is eating their lunch online.

Do you think if Apple would not have offshored the production of iPhones, that Huawei would be the biggest producers of iPhones out there today? Or whatever they call their phones. They're not iPhones, but they're competitors to Apple. Now, the Federal Reserve, I saw Waller yesterday was saying, if we can settle in at about 10% tariffs across the board, we're a long ways from that, I would say. He says then the Federal Reserve could start cutting.

So I guess if you're looking for a benchmark, at least Waller, who has one vote, he wants to see tariffs settle in at about 10%. I have noticed...

I was buying some 24 by 30 inch, like quarter inch poster board for crafts and hobbies and whatnot for my grandkids and whatnot. I've seen the prices of those skyrocket since the 30% tariffs went in. It's now for 25 sheets of that, it's $260, $11 a sheet.

where before it was $6 a sheet. So it is now officially showing up where those tariffs are now. They're unloading the boats, but they're getting hit with 30% tariffs on stuff that was getting hit with zero tariff before. So all of a sudden, the prices have skyrocketed. You're going to notice that in Amazon going forward. Harvard barred from enrolling foreign students. That's another one that he's picked to fight with.

Again, I don't like these individual fights. I don't know. It just looks petty to me. I think if you're enrolled, I saw something, if you're enrolled, that you've got to basically transfer. Wow. Yeah. I mean, it's just, I don't know. He's over the top at times. The Supreme Court preserves Fed independence. Okay. That's pretty, you know, that's something that the Supreme Court has ruled on.

He can shake up other agencies, no problem. I know that there was a federal judge yesterday. You've got to hire back all those people that you let go from the Department of Education, which he basically shut down the Department of Education, the federal department. But it looks to me like the Supreme Court, that's a pretty big win. On the surface, you may think that's a loss, right?

If you're for the president having the powers to, for instance, eliminate the Department of Education, the Supreme Court was okay with that. But as it relates to the Fed, they think that the Fed or the laws prevent him from messing with the Fed and the...

My worry about taking the Fed's independence away or reducing it in some capacity is, of course, there's always another administration coming down the pike, right? Yeah.

You don't know where that comes from. Yeah, they could totally restore it because these orders, executive orders, can be overdone unless Congress steps in and makes them law. Now, NVIDIA, if you've still got some fingernails left to chew on, NVIDIA is going to report May 28th, so five days from now. I guess that's next Thursday or Wednesday, I guess, Wednesday, right?

That'll be, you know, NVIDIA in my book these days is the number one earnings report. And this is like the last one of the quarter. I don't know why NVIDIA has such a weird reporting date because 95% of the companies have already reported.

But we never really understood why they had that late date. I mean, you get a lot of your retailers are late just because a lot of them are physically counting inventory. But, yeah, I never really understood why theirs was so late, especially since it's the one we've been anticipating the most for the last two years.

Yeah, and, you know, NVIDIA is a member of the Dow. I think a lot of the obstacles in NVIDIA's way, I think they've gone easier on China. I think Jensen Wang's trip to the White House went a whole lot better than Tim Cook's trip to the White House. And I think Wayne was able to convince, you know, President Trump that it's not in our best interest to let the markets work on this issue.

And I think that probably has helped NVIDIA clear out some of those roadblocks and obstacles. I think the stock looks pretty good right now. We'll see. Their earnings are going to come out on Wednesday. You just never know. Decker's reported today.

And Decker's did not, they couldn't even give any guidance. Took away their guidance, yeah. That stock's down 20% this morning. I own that one in the value, the relative value portfolio. And I bought it pretty cheap, but it is down 20% today. I have no intention of selling it. That's been a great stock over the years, a bump in the road as far as I'm concerned. Now, here's 10 risks to the U.S. economy today.

according to Apollo. Number one, Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt, increasing borrowing costs. Well, it's had very little impact so far. The ongoing negative impact of tariffs. Yes, from day to day, week to week, that is a risk. The trade deal uncertainty and trade war, that's another one. Extremely high uncertainty for business planning, that's another one. And weak corporate confidence.

Consumer spending slowing because of the higher prices in stores such as Walmart. I just mentioned Amazon. There's no way I'm going to pay $256 for 24-inch by 30-inch foam board stock. No way in heck. And a lot of people are going to say that.

Historically weak consumer confidence right now. Lower tourism right now. There is a backlash against Trump in the U.S. Student loan repayments restarting. That takes money out of the economy. Housing demand weakening because of higher mortgage rates. Well, they've been parked here at 6.9 for a long, long time.

and doge laying off government workers. So there's ten more reasons to worry this weekend. But wait, here's one more. Here's the big one, Japan. According to Societe Generale, they say that the global financial markets could face a dramatic shift, an Armageddon triggered by Japan's bond market turmoil. Now this is a new one to me.

I mean, they're down under 1% on their interest rates, but apparently there's cracks and it's starting to crack and it could turn into a tsunami, according to Societe Generale. So we'll be watching Japanese interest rates going forward. We'll be right back. ♪♪♪

You gotta go where you wanna go Do what you wanna do Do what you wanna do Do what you wanna do And welcome back here to the final segment of today's Best Docs Now show. I want to go back to the Japanese story just for a moment because it is a big story and I don't mean to brush by it as if it's nothing. You know, if you look at the chart...

of Japan's 10-year interest rates. Now...

You wonder why in every week's newsletter I have the yields of Greece, Spain, and Italy in there. It's because that almost brought the world to its knees when the Club Med stocks all of a sudden had a bond crisis. The pigs, remember? Yes, and I've been monitoring them ever since, and they've behaved themselves. But now...

You've got even a bigger economy, Japan, which in 2020 during COVID, their bond rate went negative, minus 0.25. And they were virtually at zero for like 20-something years. A long time. Until what, I guess about a year or two ago when the carry started.

Trade unwound a tiny bit. Yes, now, you said the key word. That finances a lot of funding as investors go in there, borrow that money for next to nothing, and go out and buy stocks and bonds with that money. That's called the carry trade. You're borrowing the money from Japan and you're carrying it

to other investments and you're trading a very low yielding instrument for one that yields a whole lot higher. And now Japan's gone from minus 25 basis points. They're at 1.55 today. And if you look at that chart, that is a pretty explosive chart. This is how you want a good stock to look.

not your bond yield. Interest rate. And what that's doing, your borrowing costs are getting more and more expensive, which at some point makes the differential, say, between where you could borrow there and then turn around and invest that money somewhere else. Your borrowing costs are going up. It's messing that arbitrage trade up a bit and

When you unwind that stuff, that's where you've got – when you're selling a lot of, say, Japanese bonds onto the market, when normally people have – it's been going the other way for years, you get a problem. Well, I mean, it's a sure thing. I mean, look – and where it could show up is in U.S. treasuries.

Because you borrow money from Japan at half a percent, you turn around and buy a U.S. Treasury at four and a half. Right, yep. That's funding. They call that the yen-funded carry trade. And that accounts for substantial foreign bond purchases. You're buying the cheapest bonds in the world.

and you're buying ones that have much better yields. And this era appears to be ending as capital returns to Japan while the Bank of Japan loses control of its long end curve. The unwinding of these massive carry trades could create a loud sucking sound in the U.S. financial assets if yields on Japan continue to go higher. So that will be something now that I put on my weekly newsletter

a watch list because this has never been a problem this is all japan has had near zero interest rates for years and years and years and years and even at one and a half you say why is that a problem well it's gone from zero to one and a half in just four years what if it goes to three or four uh and it's going to continue to unwind that carry trade so it's definitely something

that's going to have to be monitored carefully. That can be your third fingernail that you chew on. That's the Japan carry trade. NVIDIA may top Q1 estimates, but its outlook could be hindered by China. That's going to come up next week. As the nuclear stocks are flying off the shelf, the solar stocks, because in that Trump so-called Big Beautiful Bill,

Depending on which side you're on, one side calls it the big beautiful bill. The other one says it's the big ugly bill. It is the first one to actually attack spending, even though the bottom line is not all that much. But I did listen to a guy that is on the budget committee. He's pretty controversial because he's for draconian cuts.

And he was saying, you know, there's actually a lot more cuts in here than people realize. So at least, you know, he thinks there was something in there that was worthwhile. Yeah, I mean, don't forget, I mean, just slowing the growth of spending in reality, right, is the equivalent of a cut nowadays. Yes, but they did accomplish some cuts in there on top of that, not just slowing but eliminating. Okay, now.

The solar stocks are just getting hammered. Sunrun was down 39% yesterday.

I had someone transfer Enphase to us. That went out. I sold that one immediately for solar. The solar stocks are just getting hammered because they're going to speed up the phase-out of those credits. And that's what kept the solar industry alive, really, was the tax credits. And now that's going to disappear. So that's a cut. Okay, that's a cut to spending. You're not...

allowing those solar credits here down the road a lot sooner than the original phase-out was. Now, I'm looking at the bonds market every once in a while. Here's a good example. Flutter, which is the best stock now, a massive gambling company. Well, you can gamble on there. The five-year is at five and an eighth.

Which, you know what, I mean, that's going out six years. And if you hold that, you know, over until 2031, five and seven-eighths, and if the company's still around five years from now, you get all your principal back.

That's one of the most attractive bonds that I've seen in a long, long time. Five and seven-eighths on a senior secured note due in 2031. Nuclear names. I think it's coming out around, what, beginning of June, I think. Yeah, you're going to look into it for us. Nuclear names surge as Trump sets to sign order to boost the industry. And I have not had a chance to go through it yet. I've got a long day ahead.

A guy in Cleveland told me, try Grok. I said, what is that, a Greek restaurant, an Italian restaurant around here, over there in Mentor or something? He said, no, that's Musk AI. He says, go to Grok. I can't remember if it was Calm or something else. He said, it's amazing. So that's another one. You know, look, how many irons in the fire does Elon Musk have?

And now he's got a competitor to chat GPT. So anyways, try Grok over the weekend if you get a chance. And try my newsletter and four-week trial over the weekend. It's the best education you'll ever get on the market. Go to GundersenCapital.com. Set up an appointment with us at 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST. Have a great day and have a great weekend, everybody.

This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.