Monday Nov. 4, 2024
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He's been seen on C, N, B, C, the fox gentle and the fox gentle. His articles can be found on market, seeking out of the street dock count and many other places. He's the author of the weekly best stocks now newsletter, the of the best. These president of gunterson capital management here is professional money manager.

Welcome to the monday, monday.

november, the fourth, and what a week IT will be. This is built Anderson, president of gunterson capital management, a nationwide fee based only firm. And i'm here with a very kid are charted financial analyst, and I just gonna a say we have a cautious market here.

The day is like, you know, let's just wait and see what happens on tuesday. And let's not forget on thursday, wednesday actually, when the fed that will have their decision right now, the door was down seventy points despite the addition of NVIDIA. I don't know it's officially in there yet, but in video did go into the doll on friday.

The dow is down seventy one points. The nazi ck is down just six right now, the eighteen thousand two hundred and thirty two. The s and p is actually up a little bit at five.

I think maybe the oil stocks might be having a good day today, Russell. Two thousand is down as call IT flat, and oil is up a dollar eighty eight today to seventy one thirty seven as OPEC decides to keep their cuts in place. Gold is basically flat, up a little twenty seven and fifty three.

The ten year is down eight basis points to four point two eight, and bitcoin up six hundred and eleven dollars to sixty eight thousand three hundred and eighty three. So welcome to today's best dogs now show with the professional money manager, bill gunterson, president of gunterson capital management. And i'm here with very kite of charged financial analysts will look, berry is going to be a very busy week. The markets going to play IT very cautiously here today, a day in front of the presidential election that we've been talking about now for three years and three hundred and sixty four days, I think. And we also have yeah and the feds actually .

there they are waiting to they're actually onna meet on wednesday and then the announcement doesn't come on until thursday.

So they day two .

like the market yeah I I was a nod calendar kind of a nod calendar change and I was looking up and you're come body of investors waiting. I'm like, well, the fed waiting a day too. So everybody's was .

if you feel like you're being cautious, you have good company in jero, pal. Well, we finished ed up the market on an up note on friday that, that was up to eighty nine. The aspect was up one forty four on friday.

And then came the stunning news after the market closed. Now i've been talking about this. I said they need to kick and tel out and put invidia and therefore, the chip sector representative. And that's exactly what happened on friday. I think they just got tired of looking at that chart of hotel, that swich chart that's been so ugly for so long.

And they said, look, you know, and video, how much bigger is in video than intel? Why are we leaving intel in the dow and the boom that happened after the clothes on friday? Now I don't know if it's when it's official.

You will have to look into that very at time this morning here that happens so quickly. Then I think jeff took me a text that sure way is going into the door. He asked me.

is that getting rid of yeah they're actually getting rid of dow chemical. So they're replacing the which is funny, they're placing a door name chemical or whatever they were for any of they're dw chemical now just double ink I think but but you think will be replacing that you got have .

a stock in the f when .

it's one chemical for another, right?

Yeah, I said I don't know you're going to have to assure one way is this anyways? So the markets were positive on friday, but they closed well off of their high. You know, we had we had a crazy week last week.

I would say there were more disappointments, the big ones that beat and did well. I mean, there was just only a few amazon booking dot com and there was one other one i'm trying to think of. But the other side of the ledger, you had disappointing earnings from lilly apple.

Um let's see who else had some disappointing earnings last week. Apple had a boat. Microsoft had a bad day, uber had a bad. The earnings 的 report not bad， but you know isn't how .

you interpret IT IT.

right? You know these guys are greedy. They want you to just not the ball out of the park, meta.

Also, it's like, you know if if aon judge hits a whole run IT IT only lands on the third row like a short ch IT wasn't upper deck, okay? IT was not not an upper deck home on that basically have a market interprets some of this stuff from time to time. And boeing got there, got their strike over with.

Maybe you can start making some constructive progress there. I don't think boeing is is going to get kicked out of the doll anytime soon, but IT would be nice to get IT back on on the track. As far as the election goes tomorrow, well, you know, tomorrow is is the day and you know you wait out to in your mind, there's a lot of different possible outcomes.

I think I think the the differences between the two candidates couldn't be any further of part from one another. It's a it's it's a decision that you know I mean, you're not like, yeah you know these are so close that doesn't really matter who we pick I mean, these are two very far apart iddio logic and you know all leadership, all the kindest stuff experience is that is a huge gap in between of the two candidates. So you have a very stark contrast attitudes between.

And well, we know by the end of the day, I think there's a lot of question about that. You know I was there when when the bush v gore that kept the market pretty much captive for quite a while until that was finally decided. So anyways, there's just a lot that can happen tomorrow.

How will either side react? Will there be a final decision that tomorrow? But not sure we shall see.

I saw a pit this morning said, think I think I was around two thirty when trump was announced the winner in two thousand and sixteen, I think is about two thirty A M and had saw something of market commentator said they think by three thirty in .

wednesday morning, right?

That we should know. But yes, there's a good chance we won't know for for a while.

I'm sure there's a proposition bet out there on one of these can boying sites.

When will the river under how many days?

Yes, twelve days after the election, the twenty two days, twenty two minutes after the polls closed. I mean, there's all i'm sure there's all kinds of betting propositions in there if you've got an inkling towards one or another. And then, of course, I think it's pretty unanimous that the fed will cut interest rates by twenty five basis points on the thursday. I can third .

that if we get to ninety nine, ninety nine point eight percent chance that there is what i'm looking at as a twenty five a twenty five basis point cut on on thursday.

maybe I just want to get .

pretty Priced in my world, free Priced in one hundred percent.

Is there a sleeping pill that will wake me up on friday morning? Time to prepare for the show? Ah you know anything I would say i've seen a lot about the IT is not Normal at all for the fed to cut interest strates by fifty basis points and see the kind of jump that we have seen in interest rates after a big cut like that. And there's a lot of actually yellow flags, even some red flags going up about you. The state of the bond market right now.

we call that a steeped in curve, steeped in curve. In other words, the lower end of the curve, which the fed controls went down. The opposite into that curve, which is largely controlled by investors, has gone up. And so that.

that determines rates right at the end of the day, the stock market determines rates and what what drives retire well, people selling off bonds. okay. And then if that's not enough, okay, you've got a fed decision, a presidential decision, a decision what they have for lunch today.

And you've got earnings this week, one hundred S M P, five hundred companies, plantier com block that a dog, gilliard sciences, cvs, devin mergy, duke, a river and IT goes on and on and on and what kind of go through a day by day. Uh, but suffit to say there's a lot to worry about here this week. There's probably one of the most active weeks in the market that I can remember with everything kind of colliding at the same time with election earnings, fed decision.

And let's not forget we had a very weak jobs report on friday. Also have to worry a little bit about the economy. I was worried that the earnings situation determined during the last week, and I answered that question in whether did or not in my sleep on right, don't let anybody know.

Now that's that's that took me a long time to come up with that. If you want to read last week's newsletter, I think you would be kind of surprised at gunterson capital dot com, gunterson capital 点 com。 okay. When we come back, the earnings is calendar for the.

Hand welcome back here to the second quarter. Today's best dogs now show that the market has improved a little bit since the open. The S M P.

E is now up seven points. The nazi is now up twenty, and the doors down one or five at the market. I don't think there's any question the market is expecting a trump win, whether you like trump, whether you like Harris.

The market has pretty much built in for the last three weeks. A trump Victory, which obviously a hair Victory might upset the markets on on wednesday and thursday. And why do I say that? Well, you know, when you look at all the various sectors of the market, the oil sector, the bond market, the bitcoin trumps own stocks, IT would just seem. And I heard the griffin griffin of a dell over the weekend and say, and he does not like trump at all and he said that the market has built in a trump Victory so OK, i'm just letting as a high .

frequency trader yeah the high frequent ency trader he has, he has he has his .

finger on the post of the market trade. And I saw some other people pretty well connected in the markets that say, say the same thing. I haven't I haven't heard anybody say that the market has built in A A hero's Victory.

So that could be the only thing i've seen is is different, different degrees of a trm Victory really is all you've seen in the .

market even yeah and what the and .

the chances of Victory have reduced.

And I would say so okay. So let's look at the risk this week if the fed came in on thursday with no cut at all, the market wouldn't be happy that, that takes some that could shave some hair off the top of the market there. And if if if Harris were to win and tomorrow, that's not what i'm just saying.

That's not what the market is expecting. So those are two things that could disrupt. And the third after, obviously, the earnings.

Now I did bring earnings up to date on friday and saturday can get the news letter up till sunday because I really had to focus in on that and really check those numbers because we now have seventy percent of the S M P. Five hundred in. In other words, there's not going to be much change.

We pretty much are where we are at, and I don't see a whole lot of improvement or or one way another up or down with those earnings expectations are for the rest of this year, for all of next year and for twenty twenty six. There's quite A A good number out there right now on twenty two, twenty six ah and I went through you know it's pretty much average seventy five percent of companies have beat their their earning, sixty percent have beat their sales. And there were some changes this week, which I which I reflected in the news or man, we had a lot of request for the newsletter over the weekend.

And if you want to see my latest macro outlook ah you can get two, three weeks of the newsletter. Gutters and capital dock is pretty hard to argue with. The guy has been right for the last one fifteen, I don't know.

In a year, I started that macro o outlook back about two thousand and nine. I think we've been right about the maco outlook of the market every single year since then. And I am not a perma ball by any stretch of the imagination. I am a guy that follows earnings and earnings estimates. I'm a numbers guy, and that is how I make my calls on the market and I look for any subtle changes that indicate either a change to the upside or a change to the downside going forward.

There's some big stories here today, a couple I think there's a big nuclear story here today, which is a little bit barish on that whole private companies buying a electricity from from the the utilities, which you eye question how does that you know, SAT with the people of the are just everyday people going to work every day and come and home from work and rea that need need the energy themselves are we're going to play favorites and let these big companies to run their data centers. While there's a decision that came down today that throws at all in question and will get to that in a bit, plentier will report tonight. That's a big one.

They are now in the S M, P, five hundred, cleveland clifts aig big insurance company fang, which is a big energy company marriage has already reported, and they warned about the softness in china. If there's anything consistent in the market that's been consistent. A soft chinese economy tomorrow, lumen technologies, crisper, do pant, devon energy, archer, Daniel middle commons engines, Young brands marathon petroleum wednesday cvs, which is definitely been on its back feet here recently qualcomm report on wednesday guilty at sciences I earn mountain teva teva pharmacy tico beyond meat, marathon oil novel nor d desk that'll be interesting theyve been struggling lately ARM holdings lift the competitor to uber on thursday Lucy, well, let's see how Lucy those numbers are.

That's a company that's kind of really on their back foot right now. Fiscal gone and the other one rivals been struggling and loses its been struggling big time also reporting the darkling of seeking alpha ality income you those seeking a vote, there will be twenty two hundred articles the next day after all didn't get report square is going to report on thursday airbnb, the trade death draft kings, a cloud flare, blink charging, Warner brother, so suffit to say there's a big week coming up on paramount. I signed an interesting story and paramount today, paramount on cbs.

And you have a big conservative who i've seen him on TV before. He got a pony tale ons. Paul mital. And he owns patron to kila prety, pretty well known guy. He's wanting to buy cbs.

And his argument is, as all of the major networks are, you know, haris supporters, let just say, and he would like to make cbs a middle of the road news report, the news that would be nice to just have the news once again. So anyways, that that Kevin in are a story. Now here's the story that katch is my eye this morning.

Big one, as if there's not enough talent. Energy shares plunge as fork, which is the federal federal energy regulatory commission, rejects the nuclear power deal with amazon. okay.

Now there's been other deals. Apple as the deal with conStellation and and zon had a deal. Apple has a deal.

Google made soft shot. I ros.

okay. So um the amended interconnection deal would have supplied more power from talent to the amazon data center at the nuclear power plant in pennsylvania, members of folks that the deal could raise power bills for the public and affect the grid's liability, which you know that's a question we had right from the start with these big tech companies going directly to the to the utility and making a deal which kindly gives them preference in my mind over just a little guy.

More on this when we come back and war and buffet, wow, his cash ball is swelling. why? This is bill gander's. Thank you for tuning in to today's best stocks. Now best inverse funds now show.

I put several hours of research in during the we hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting its stories that I can to get two, three weeks of my newsletter. Go to gunterson capital dot com to talk to us about our fee based only money management services calls at eight, five, five, six, eleven best. Now back to the second half of the show.

Because that something.

And look IT back here to the second quarter. The second half of today's best stocks now show ah what is behind warn buffer t swelling cash pile. Well, he reported his emerita hathaway reported earnings over the weekend.

They cut their apple stake again, which i've been calling a sagging company. IT has entered that soggy territory quite some time ago. And the only way I see for apple to get out of that, we've talked about this at nosie, as they need a new product, they need something exciting, they gotto have that in.

That's all important and new, something new to get out of the single digit growth fund that they're in. And I think the biggest hurdle that they I think the bigger hurdle they've had thrown at them is while away taking away major market share in china a from their own iphone sale. So his cash pile, one of the reasons as cash ball is growing is the number of stocks that he can buy.

His shrinking without big, you know, his heard, his overall size of his fun. His top holdings are american express, you know, chevron, chap, city group, coca cola, the via craft times, moods oxide, al petroleum and serious x amt. As that sounds like a powerful lineup.

Well, he's a very patient value investor that has done very, very well over the years. That wouldn't be a portfolio that I would have. But look, and when he goes at IT, he comes at IT from the intrinsic value point of view.

But he also has a lot of private companies .

that yeah that's .

probably where I think .

concrete companies and dairy queen, his talk was, I think that's where he gets his performance from .

yeah and you get to remember to is he's get so much and he's get so much cash, it's hard to you know it's hard to find a deal that's big enough to move the needle, especially on the private side. And so now ends up in spite definition, right, following the old grandma ben gram, where ee's got to have know he wants to see a certain new value right there, which leads to some of those names they huge, just rattled off. I think. I think the interesting part of that whole story this weekend was the fact that he they didn't buy, I think is the first time I have bought stock, done any stock by back at all since since I want to say it's two thousand and twelve, don't cook, quote me on that number. But in basically the reason was is he basically is saying that in his calculations, the stock is .

is over value. And you know only when you could come away with the opinion, the analysis that he's not really interested in his he's barri shed on his own stock. I think look, everything has a course as a you know you look, I look at a kind of like fidelity majella.

When Peter lynch was there in the hay day, by the time Peter linch laugh, I mean, he could have stuck around that style of investing last at a long time. But the people that took over for Peter lunch and nobody ays majella is an S M P five hundred performer. You're gonna very, very little from the market because it's hard to get those stocks because IT became so big and unwieldy.

And um I think what buffer has the same problem has IT run its course. And you know, I mean, look, he's not long for this world in his age and the the new guys will take over and they know the buffet method, but they have a very big, large and wheel the fun that you they can go in and buy a pantier or you know and there's just a certain stocks that don't will never meet their rittersaal videos of the world. He finally doubled into the tech space and he's kind of backed he didn't stay with the apple.

Very, very wrong. okay? Begging of in video, which enters the dow, which is pretty shocking that, that the dow was actually proactive for a change usually. Well, look how long they've kept sleep by email in the .

that and that takes place on the eighth by the.

I thought being influence invidia. Uh, the demand for the hb m four chips are so large that invidious asking one of their suppliers, hey, we want you to move over everything up six months. Imagine sitting there in the morning meeting over in korea at the sk um hi nick and says, look, you guys all of this stuff we've got planned for for a november of next year in video wanted by me, you're to their donuts yes.

So anyways, that just shows you how incredible this demand is for invidia st chips. Mariet four year outlook lowered again on sluggish chinese economy. And you know the question did come up recently with the chinese stocks.

They had a week or two of some spectacular performance and stepper David tepper, owner of the north Caroline of panthers, there's another job, al, and talk and look up what their record is. I don't know. I haven't looked lately what's the record of the panthers.

but they just get their second wind, just get their second win this weekend.

So OK second one, right? So we should listen to tapper on management. And he is said by everything china, and I disagreed all heartedly with him. IT looks like as of now, that was a soccer bet going into those chinese stocks. And their economy continues to be very, very thought.

Now i'm in california. The bazooka, the bazoo hasn't .

fired off. No, i'm headed home on later this afternoon after i'm done trading in everything. I can't believe the electricity is double what we pay on the other coast and the gases for fifty galleon, which is double what we pay on the other coast.

And I finally figured out my thermos, dad, in my room here, if you crack a window, the thermostat goes off. okay. I finally figured that out on day for this odell. Um I thought, why can I why does the thermos that network h here and so that's just california know the very, very helpful kind of controlling every little you can't crack a window without the the thermes turning on you know south we run in the full blast air condition windows open or non .

right twenty four seven.

I just say viking shares jump after positive early data on oral obesity pill. okay? Is that going to be the game changer the video is going to report or a novel nord dist is going to report?

Will actually viking, which i've popo T I don't think it's a big deal. Viking's actually down seven point nine percent. IT was up twenty two percent this morning at one point in the pre market.

They're getting good results on the on the obesity pill. Um in the meantime, lilly had disappointing results. I think it's just I wouldn't be pulling the plug on lily yet.

novel. On the other hand, I don't know what's going on there. That's a very weak chart on the novel nordic, and i'll be looking at that very, very closely this week. Okay, consultation.

The interesting thing is on on hiking. I hope they hope this this particular your piece of news on more than six people remember the last time I think you know came out, I don't know, a couple weeks later that oh, they're good results. You involved literally I think that was six six patients. I'm like we're going to need more .

than need more the pill, which is you know the other option is as a shot self given into you usually that I think in your stomach area, you know once a week. So I just don't think that the pill is the game changer. Maybe IT is.

I don't know, we'll see, but know for everything I heard. It's very difficult. I need to talk to my my guy in the pharmaceutical industry about IT, but I heard him say it's very difficult to do what they're doing in pill form.

ConStellation energy is the second knock on the nuke industry today. They reported earnings, which I thought we're pretty good. ConStellation is the one that made the deal with apple.

no. Microsoft, uh, to provide microsoft with the energy for the next twenty years. Microsoft does not want to get cut short .

on an interesting an interesting piece about that is there they are turning back on, right? So you basically adding power to the bridge versus a lot of these situations, especially you think about some of the power issues at texas I had a couple years ago. Um if you've got you know, these big data centres are big companies competing right with your Normal customer. And what's history we ve been a highly regulated industry, then you know you're going to mean you're essentially are going to have unless you increase the supply of power, which is not easy to do, then you're going to create you know you're going .

to create higher Prices. I mean, yes, and we have taken a lot of energy offline. You know where i'm sitting here in california, just south of me, the carls bad power plant is gone, is gone.

And just north of me to send a no free nuclear power plan has been totally the commission and that california, you know, is hurting. That's why their energy Prices are double what they are in the rest of the country. Okay, when we come back more earnings, earnings.

earnings and more earnings. You gotta go where you wanna go. want.

And walking back here to the final segment of today's best stocks now show, you know, i'm pretty active now that the x Normally, twitter has settled LED down and you know, everything seems to be working right. And I kind of took a break from IT just as I went through the transition and all. But no, i'm on there every day, but I sent out messages to the general public observations.

If I take action or I see something really under the rate are obviously that only goes out to my subscribers and clients. But I make a lot of general observations on ex. And it's really easy to follow me on x on twitter, just go at bill gunterson, go to x dot com and could look up at bill gander's and follow me.

You can look at the end of the day and all the tweet messages that I sent out and I have mike followers continue to build. I think I have something to say that's worthwhile. And obviously the people agree out there have a pretty good building that following back up a pretty quickly.

So if um you are on x, make sure you follow bill gander's OK. Now the market has improved. The next deck is up thirty three points and video is is starting to us improve a little bit here, which doesn't surprise me after getting added to the door.

Okay, conStellation energy misses earnings and this is the one to sign the deal and less just I don't think IT was that bad of a report. The stock is down, however, nine point eight percent, which brings me to another subject. You know, earning season is role of the dice berry. I mean, we don't know company that reports. Some of you go down, some of you go, oh, wow, you just don't know and you .

don't know how only that you don't know how the markets going going to react to a number where you know you mean when I looked at the microsoft number thinking, not a bad number, of course, market was there.

I had right. And I think that over time, IT smooth out. But these big gering, I mean, like conStellation, shot up big time about two months ago, and they announced the apple deal, microsoft deal.

IT went clap to two eighty eight and now today is at two thirty two so it's off about fifty points, fifteen percent down from its all time high there. Um you just have to wait. Let the number subtle.

I mean, I have a few on the cusp that I didn't like their earnings last week. And we're going to see where their targets come in. We're going to see how the charts look this week. Microsoft would be a good example of that. I did cut half of my microsoft not too long ago, which i'm glad I did because it's trickled down since then.

Am I gonna keep that other half in a portfolio that only allows twenty or well only has twenty stocks at the current time or not going to find something a little bit more viBrant? And likely is microsoft finally approaching and moving into, uh, a soggy territories like apple did about a year and a half two years ago? Could be we'll see.

We will take a look. And obviously, if I find something Better, that, that one could be on the cusp. And n vo is another one that's on the cusp.

Hey, you want to stay on my team, you Better produce, okay, RAM said and you backed the dodger's is different team at albo kerk's, uh, when they would send the guy, okay, you're going to back back to the current the dodgers are the podres have let's the l patil and pretty sure it's up. The chiao was okay. We can.

It's all they do. But guys not producing the manager holds up which AAA jersey and flashes yes, you know there's I got a one way ticket to you. That's the way I do do i'm not gonna stick around.

You know this is an active portfolio, not overly active, but always looking to upgrade and the kick one out, pick one up, just like the doubt did on friday. They kicked out into lay, waited a long time. I don't think there is proactive. I don't think there is proactive as we are sure when Williams is kind of I guess they are looking for a chemical, the coding a because they got .

rid of dw double chemical. I guess their name now is really downing and talked to the chemical piece out of IT. But yeah, I mean, it's a similar name, right in terms of know they do we think of sure when Williams is pain on our wall but now they do a coatings and other other compounds.

So it's kind of a bike for a bike. I guess there is well, some more to intel in in video and most of its mostly symbolic. There's not it's not certainly stocks not going to get as much of a pop as IT.

What if it's added to the S N P. Five hundred for the first time? And that's because the snp is actually a traded index.

There's not a turn of your doll thought you know you don't have a big S P Y version of the doll um that's heavily that's available ded. But it's very, very symbolic moving. I think that my first message to you was one of the you've i've been calling for that for a long time .

well and know the that was the one they quote on the news all the time that I was up twenty seven points today. He is the index.

That's the biggest reason you go back in history, right? It's really the first index in terms of on the corner of not even a probably building in wall street that was the corner corner on wall street, right? That's kind of how IT that's kind of how I got IT. So got IT hating.

And they're got to be looking at the underperformance severe under performance of the the as that over the last decade or two and saying, you know, we got a pet things up and state a little bit more currently, my other change, I would kick disney out of the doll. IT represents the leasure slash media sector. I would kick me out and replace that with netflix. I don't think that will happen. H, I called for amazon, been put in the doubt for a long time, and there was something about they had too many shares and they had to spend the stop, right?

Yeah, the Price with the construction of the index, we don't have to get engh time to get into IT now. But the larger the stock, the bigger the Price, the bigger effect that has on that particular or index. So you've got you need to a bunch of stocks that are closely Priced in terms of the actual Price of the shares. First is the underline value of the company.

So anyways, that you know pretty big shake up there for no sleepy guys over the now okay taking of sleepy ah you know wall street in general is very sleepy and you know we see stocks people picking up coverage on them when we're pretty much done with them, they run their course. So anyways, that's what the news letters all about every week. Best stocks.

Now I mean, I say that I mean IT, I do what I can do to trying to identify those best talks now. And they're not proper gamble in kimberley Clark and mobile eeta there ones that are more viBrant and lively today. Get two, three weeks of the newsgroups and capital duck on, put our research department to work for you, give us a call, set up an appointment. Eight, five, five, six, eleven best. Eight, five, five, six, eleven best.

Have long or short physic and stocks mentioned during the show. Vast performance is not indicated of future performance. Get there some capital is the e based registered investment advisory firm. All the cancer held at Charles swap swap is a member of S, I, C and fina.