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Thursday Apr. 3, 2025 - The case for tariffs
2025/4/3
Best Stocks Now with Bill Gunderson
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Bill Gunderson
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Jeff Webster
Bill Gunderson: 我认为媒体对关税影响的报道过于夸大，其主要目的是为了吸引眼球和增加点击量，从而获得更多收益。尽管道琼斯指数下跌了1428点，但这并不能代表真实的经济状况。我们应该保持冷静，理性看待市场波动。关税对小型企业的供应链造成了严重的破坏，这将导致供应链中断。然而，好消息是，特朗普政府的政策对债券市场有利。关税的影响比市场预期更为严重，因为市场在关税政策公布之前表现乐观。美国对其他国家征收的关税是对其高额关税的合理回应，例如马达加斯加对美国征收93%的关税，而美国只对其征收49%的关税。目前，美国尚未与其他国家就关税问题进行谈判。市场在短期内会出现波动，但最终会趋于稳定。当前的关税危机远不及911事件和2008年金融危机，市场最终会恢复。特朗普政府的关税政策是一项大胆的举动，其成功与否关系到他的总统任期以及未来的政治格局。特朗普政府试图通过关税政策将工作岗位和财富带回美国。越南等国家会很快与美国达成协议，因为它们高度依赖美国市场。政府资金的使用缺乏透明度，我们需要提高政府财政的透明度。反对关税的人应该同样反对其他国家对美国的关税。我们应该关注其他国家在制造业中的劳动条件问题。美国政府网站公开透明地列出了关税信息。美国财政部长建议其他国家不要对美国的关税采取报复措施。美国对中国的关税是对其高额关税的合理回应。苹果公司应该将生产线迁回美国。华为手机的价格与苹果手机相当，这说明中国政府并没有压低生产成本。中国制造的产品质量参差不齐。加拿大高度依赖美国市场，美国可以减少对加拿大商品的依赖。墨西哥表示不会对美国的关税采取报复措施。关税对墨西哥农产品的影响可能最大。中国制造的商品质量普遍较低。将制造业转移到海外会导致恶劣的劳动条件。欧盟可能会对美国的关税采取报复措施。印度和中国可能需要与美国进行关税谈判。特朗普政府的政策目标是将制造业带回美国。关税对珠宝和制药行业的影响不同。关税会对不同股票产生不同的影响。苹果公司将生产线转移到中国导致了知识产权泄露和市场份额的损失。TikTok的出售可能被亚马逊或AppLovin收购。关税对汽车行业造成了负面影响。我会通过X平台分享对关税影响的观察。能源行业将从关税中受益。法拉利和制药行业受关税影响较小。制药行业将加强供应链。特朗普将麦金利总统作为榜样。麦金利总统曾将许多工厂迁回美国。关税可能增强就业市场。一些机构对关税持负面看法。沃尔玛、亚马逊和好市多等公司可能会受到关税的影响。市场最终会趋于稳定。
Jeff Webster: 我认为特朗普政府通过实施关税，将谈判的主动权交给了其他国家。市场在短期内会波动，但最终会趋于稳定。华为手机的价格与苹果手机相当，这说明中国政府并没有压低生产成本。
supporting_evidences
Bill Gunderson: 'from tariffs but it's a lot of cross currents right now obviously it'll work out the doubt the S&P is down 211 3.7 percent the Russell 2000 small caps down 4.5 percent you're going to see a lot of supply chain disruption I would think amongst those small caps'
Bill Gunderson: 'The tariffs were worse than what the market was expecting because if you look at yesterday, we actually had an up day in the market yesterday.'
Bill Gunderson: 'These countries are charging us double what we're charging them.'
Bill Gunderson: 'But as far as I know, the phone lines are not even open right now for negotiations.'
Jeff Webster: 'the way I'm reading this is we have the various tariffs. To some extent, Trump is putting the ball in their court saying, all right, you know, instead of an 80% tariff on U.S. goods coming into our country, we're willing to drop that to China.'
Bill Gunderson: 'You know, the analogy I use in a situation like this, around the holidays, we shake up those little things with all the snowflakes inside, the glitter, and it's all turbulent. Yeah, it's in turmoil for about a minute or two, and then it all settles.'
Bill Gunderson: 'For me, hitting the World Trade Center was a lot worse than this. We were under attack from a foreign adversary, and we had no idea if they had other things planned. The market recovered and came back from that, and I've seen other things.'
Bill Gunderson: 'It is a bold move. Okay, Trump's presidency really hangs on this.'
Bill Gunderson: 'Trump is trying to reverse that, okay? He's making a very bold move and using the leverage that the U.S. has.'
Bill Gunderson: 'I think they'll settle things very quickly because they want to be part.'
Bill Gunderson: 'When Doge went into, for instance, USAID, how many times did your jaw drop and how many times did your fist hit the table when you heard where that check you send or that money that's taken out of your paycheck every week or every other week What that money was going to and all the different things it was going to.'
Bill Gunderson: 'So if you say you're against tariffs, okay, you're out there saying, well, I don't think tariffs are right. But do you think it's right for them to be charging us tariffs?'
Bill Gunderson: 'I don't know what. So we're all for the UAW and workers' benefits and safe working environment and retirement plans and all this and that. I wonder what the factories in India or China building Apple phones.'
Bill Gunderson: 'And this is on the government website, reciprocal tariffs.'
Bill Gunderson: 'Scott Besson...He advises countries not to retaliate.'
Bill Gunderson: 'But then again, you know, we have to say, China, you're charging us 64 and we're only charging you 32.'
Bill Gunderson: 'What did Apple do? I don't know where they were manufacturing their phones originally when they first started the iPhone, but they decided to offshore the manufacturing to China.'
Jeff Webster: 'Yeah, and then you ask yourself the question, what does that do to the cost of the phone?'
Bill Gunderson: 'I recently bought an MTH, which is a competitor. That's Mike's Train House, competitor to Lionel. And it clearly says on the box, made in China.'
Bill Gunderson: 'Canada faces 25% levies on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, which I think we can produce here.'
Bill Gunderson: 'Mexico says they are not going to impose counter tariffs and they will come up with a comprehensive program that will be released on Thursday.'
Bill Gunderson: 'You ever buy a fishing rod made in China, Jeff? I did a couple times. First fish that hit snapped it right in half, okay?'
Bill Gunderson: 'How many people have we known over the years, Jeff, you and I, that fly all over the world? When I was in San Diego, we had maquiladoras all over the place in Mexico.'
Bill Gunderson: 'The EU, what are they going to do? Well, they do not like Trump at all, and I guess most countries don't like Trump at all anymore.'
Bill Gunderson: 'India's got to come around. If I'm not mistaken, Apple was moving their factories to India.'
Bill Gunderson: 'Trump's vision is... Whether it pans out or not, I think there's a lot of merit to it.'
Bill Gunderson: 'Well 12.36 billion in precious stones and metal that's right yes i read that the jewelry companies are going to be in trouble because they import a lot from india'
Bill Gunderson: 'As I go through 800 charts today, I'm going to know immediately which ones are impacted by tariffs and which ones aren't.'
Bill Gunderson: 'I don't know if it was Jobs that did it or if it was Cook that did it, but they decided to use Foxconn and build their iPhones.'
Bill Gunderson: 'tiktok is up for sale we know that guess who's bidding app loving is a bidder app which has been one of the greatest stocks of all time and amazon is a bidder'
Bill Gunderson: 'Fallout. Stellantis. They're in big trouble. They're going to pause their Canadian Windsor plant for two weeks due to tariffs.'
Bill Gunderson: 'I'm going to be sending out a lot of observations throughout the day on X.'
Bill Gunderson: 'You know what all these countries are coming forward with as their side of the bargain is buying U.S. energy.'
Bill Gunderson: 'Okay, Ferrari, for instance, did you know that it cruises right around the turmoil? For some reason, Ferrari is totally immune today.'
Bill Gunderson: 'But the tariffs will definitely do that, I'm sure.'
Bill Gunderson: 'his hero, Trump's hero seems to be William McKinley.'
Bill Gunderson: 'But McKinley also brought a lot of factories back to America, right?'
Bill Gunderson: 'Now, on the good side of things, initial jobless claims fall this past week.'
Bill Gunderson: 'UBS is warning that it's the end of the world.'
Bill Gunderson: 'You've got to look at Walmart. You've got to look at Amazon. You've got to look at Costco. They're all down today.'
Bill Gunderson: 'like i say the dow was thirty five hundred when i got into the business now it's over forty thousand and i've gone through many many many periods of time and and changes in the world etc along the way and i've always found that eventually things settle down they have a way of settling out that's the way markets work that's the way markets were designed'
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