Thursday May 29, 2025 - Blowout earnings for NVDA!
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He's been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He's the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He's president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager, Bill Gundersen.

And welcome to the Thursday. It is Thursday, May 29th. Live edition of the Best Stocks Now show. Well, you know, I was expecting a big rally in the market here this morning. I don't know where it went. NVIDIA had one heck of a good report last night. We are up, but not as much as the futures would have suggested. The Dow's up just 57 points right now.

That's a measly 14 basis points. That puts the Dow at 42,155. The NASDAQ, which was up almost 300 or 400 last night, of course, that's futures, all right? That's not the real deal. The NASDAQ is up 115 right now, mostly NVIDIA. That's 58 basis points to the upside for the NASDAQ. The S&P is up 28.

Half a percent. We've got the bond market hanging in there. It's down a couple of basis points right now. We're at 4.44% on the 10-year right now. Gold is off having a decent day today. It's up 64 basis points. That's about the best mover so far from a percentage point of view. Gold is at 3,300 points.

And $16 per ounce. Oil, $61.23. That's good for the gas pump there. And Bitcoin is down $844 right now, but it is clear up at $107.637 as we begin a new day. So welcome to today's Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson.

President of Gunderson Capital Management. And Barry Kite is back with us here today after some graduation activities yesterday. Some cap and gown type stuff there. And hopefully everybody's on the right track there. Your family, Barry. Yeah, back in the saddle. We've got a senior who's graduating on Saturday. And then we had one who got really promoted yesterday.

He's got a little ways to go still. But it was good. And, of course, glad to get back in the saddle. And things have got to finish off the day with some NVIDIA earnings, some light reading after the bell yesterday. I'm disappointed, though. I mean, the futures were way up last night on the news. And then, you know, there was other news about a federal judge blocking Trump's tariffs yesterday.

You know, this is not a good situation. This has got to be resolved. I'm glad it's in front of the Supreme Court right now. How can you have one or two federal judges block everything, the will of the people, the will of the president, the will of the administration? Something's got to give there. That's got to be resolved. That is maddening. At least it's maddening to me. Maybe you're glad that...

Maybe you out there in the listening audience are glad that one judge can step in and block the whole country, it seems.

It just seems absolutely ridiculous to me. But anyways, look, we had a fairly down day yesterday as the market awaited the biggest earnings report of them all, the granddaddy of them all, the NVIDIA earnings report. And I thought it was an absolutely sensational report. NVIDIA is doing well today.

But, you know, the problem is that that's about all that's doing well today. Nothing else is really joining in. And NVIDIA, which was up almost 6%, is now up just 3.8%. That's still a nice move, 3.8%. But definitely I've seen some selling coming into this big, bold move that NVIDIA had made today.

in the after hours and opening up it's it's well off of its high for the morning and i'm not quite sure what it is other than maybe this tariff confusion yeah it's been you know since you're i know you've mentioned the futures of you know it's kind of this weird dynamic where you had great nvidia report right and the futures were looking strong uh before uh you know before we went to bed last night and then this morning you had the

Actually, the market got a pop from the ruling simply because it could potentially pause the tariffs or put them off for a little bit. But then it turns out, I heard Navarro speak this morning, there's other ways that they have. They're trying to do it this way. They can go this other route and still end up with the

you know, same place they wanted to be in terms of, you know, in terms of the tariffs or the threat of tariffs, right? Yeah, that seems to be, yeah. Well, then we got that monthly, you know, that monthly jobs number, I think it was, you know, $240,000.

10,000 higher than expected. And so kind of the story went from great NVIDIA earnings to are we seeing a slowdown in employment potentially, right? Well, I mean, that does kind of explain the seesaw action that we've seen. In the last one hour, really, in the last one hour,

I mean, the market was kind of cheering that it was actually a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade. I didn't even know we had such a thing, but we're finding out, learning all kinds of things. They're saying that Trump's tariffs were not legal. Well, that's hard for me to believe. That's hard for me to digest.

You know, it just seems like these federal judges' moves are political moves. And they declared them on. Well, the market immediately cheered that news because the market would just rather see this whole tariff thing just go away and be done with.

But, you know, I mean, Trump ran on this agenda, and he's determined to bring about a more fair trading, you know, atmosphere around the world, one where countries that are charging us tariffs, well, we're going to turn around and charge you tariffs unless you get rid of them. But it's been one hurdle, one obstacle right after another, no matter what he does.

And then, of course, Navarro, like you said, came right back and said, well, we've got ten other ways around these three judges at the U.S. Court of International Trade. Look that up and see where it's headquartered. You would think it would be in Washington, D.C., but I have no idea. Maybe it's in San Francisco. I don't know.

But a three-judge panel, we'll find out where the U.S. Court of International Trade is. Well, I mean, if what they rule, that would mean that most of Trump's hefty levies, including fentanyl-based levies on Canada, Mexico, and China, cannot go into effect. I'm telling you. So that obviously would take away one of his quickest negotiating tools to govern trade,

Stocks were applauding the move, but then all of a sudden everything turned around. And now we've pretty much lost. It's like it's New York, New York potentially. Well, okay. I mean, there's been plenty of rulings that have gone against Trump in the New York court system there. But this is a federal judges here that seem to be, you know, it's not too hard to find judges that don't like Trump and rule against him.

And, you know, Trump is trying to declare that it's a national emergency, that it's killing our middle America, this and that. So it just puts – here's the word the market doesn't like. It's uncertainty. Uncertainty.

And this puts a whole big dose of uncertainty. Now, one thing that is certain, the initial jobless claims are certain. They did come in, as you say, at 240,000. That's still way low. It's still below that 300,000 that is really kind of that, you know, when you start piling up there. The other piece was the continuing claims, I think, increased to 1.91 million.

which I think is one of the higher numbers that we've had since COVID. But it just means, obviously, it just means hiring has slowed down a bit. It doesn't mean that hiring is going in the other direction. We're still cutting net job gains. I'm not seeing the weakness show up.

You know, as I travel to the airport, as I travel to Cleveland, as I stay at hotels, as I eat out at restaurants, as I go shopping to my various destinations, I'm not seeing it at all. But 240 really is a pretty benign number. But it is a little bit elevated from the previous numbers. We had Q1 GDP. They've revised that a little bit. It was only minus 0.2.

And wasn't that all the front running in the trade? I mean, that caused that negative? Yeah, because it increased the trade deficit. Yeah, essentially if your net exports or net imports in this case, right, it ends up being a negative number counting against, you know,

the rest of your consumption and growth. So that's how we ended up with that. That's how we ended up with a negative number. I would not expect two negative numbers in a row, which equals a recession. That number in the first quarter of this year was an expanded trade deficit because of all the front-running and buying of goods.

before the tariffs were to be levied on them. So anyways, it was a little bit better. It was 0.3 minus and out minus 0.2. Okay, NVIDIA is the big story today, obviously, and we continue to be very bullish on NVIDIA. I hope you read my article on it. That was published on Tuesday. We'll be right back.

And welcome back here to the second quarter of today's Best Stocks Now show. Well, first I'm just going to mention some earnings that are going to come in tonight. Costco,

Marvell, Dell, Zscaler, and UiPath. And actually, those are some pretty important ones. So we'll keep an eye on that one. Now let's go to what Peter Navarro is saying. I personally am not a big Peter Navarro fan. But, you know, he says there's no question that there's an economic emergency. He's citing the fentanyl.

He says that in a Bloomberg surveillance podcast interview, I guess which just aired, he emphasized that the tariffs were implemented to address what he described as an economic emergency related to fentanyl trafficking from China and unfair trade practices. He says there's no question there's an economic emergency. And then he follows up with this. He says we've got courts.

in this country who are basically engaged in attacks on the American people, he said. The judiciary in this country has been weaponized in ways which are contrary to their interest. Well, I do agree with him on that point.

And that very issue is before the Supreme Court. And hopefully they will come up with a decision that reflects whatever the founding fathers intended. I'm not so sure the founding fathers intended.

wanted to give a federal judge that kind of power depending on whatever his or her politics are but that seems to be the case right now i'm not happy i want to see it resolved myself and in the meantime the market is not happy and it's causing turmoil in the markets here today well

Well, and from a negotiation standpoint, right, it actually impedes potentially our negotiation leverage, right? If you've got courts that can stop it, well, then if we're using tariffs as a potential negotiating tool, right, or to negotiate down from, well, then if you avoid them or not allow them, well, then you kind of

deteriorates our uh well i mean you should go back in terms of negotiation yeah you could use an extreme case fdr declared war on japan after pearl harbor what if a federal judge stepped in and said oh no no he's going outside of his powers here he can't declare war on japan or what you know it was almost as bad as they shipped out like all of those people that that

that had committed crimes, were here illegally and committed crimes, and a federal judge orders the plane to turn around and bring those people back and distribute them amongst the neighborhoods where they came from. It's just ridiculous. Something's got to give, and I hope sooner rather than later. Senators Warren and Banks criticize NVIDIA's plans for a Chinese facility,

Okay, well, you know, I mean, he's been to the White House, Jensen Wang, and his claim is that China's going to come up with whatever they need, with or without NVIDIA. So NVIDIA may as well be involved in the process there, NVIDIA, not be cut out of the market. So you can see it from Jensen Wang's point of view here.

I don't think you're going to keep China from getting the chip power that they need to power their own AI. And I see that DeepSeek recently unveiled an update to their AI model, R1, as competition heats up. And it's very competitive. This AI is a real deal.

I don't know that it's going to end up well, but it's the real deal. As far as investing in it, it's the real deal. I don't care if it's the nuclear stocks, the chip stocks, the networking stocks that are involved in it. It's the real deal as far as investing goes. Trump administration cancels Sunnova's $2.9 billion government loan guarantee.

Sun Nova's declared bankruptcy. It's a solar player. Now, Barry, I want you to write down the date today. It's May 29th. How long before a federal judge overrules and says, you've got to give them the $2.9 billion government loan guarantee? Now, it's been my observation over the years that alternative renewable energy has been kind of a black hole in

where a lot of money has gone into, a lot of favors have been paid to folks, investors, etc.,

I mean, why do I say that? I'm the guy that was on with Megyn Kelly, I don't know, a decade ago, talking about the Solyndra out in the Bay Area. Even though that's not my area of expertise, I do watch publicly traded companies and private companies and where these funds are going and the business world in general.

And I knew that that thing was fraudulent, and it certainly was. So I'm not a big fan of billions and billions of dollars going into a black hole into the green energy movement. And, of course, it's just a matter of time before a federal judge steps in. And, of course, Biden took the other side of the coin.

He was doling out money to green energy companies and guaranteed loans. Argentina bank stocks slide after report that the government intervened in the currency markets. Now, that's our friend...

Elvis down there in Argentina, Chainsaw, the Chainsaw guy. You know, Argentina has been the best performing market in the world this year, along with, I think, some of these European countries, you know, with their financials.

But Argentina is infamous for currency interventions, defaulting on bonds, all kinds of things. They've had a few currency crises over the years. Yes. Usually involves...

overthrowing usually involves a regime change. Yeah, that usually involves a big default on bonds and start over again. But I see that the Argentine ETF is only down 1.3%, so it can't be that big.

Three dead in Chevron's Angola oil platform fire. I can't imagine a worse job than a helicopter dropping you off in the ocean on a platform. Good luck, guys, you know, and then flying away, and there you are stuck on an oil platform, and a fire breaks out. Who do you call?

Well, there's three dead in Angola on this Chevron platform. There's some risky job occupation right there working on these platforms. Tesla eyes June 12th as the launch date for its robo-taxi service in Austin.

Well, you know, the market's been waiting a long, long time for Tesla's robo-taxi service and the cars that they're going to use. In the meanwhile, Tesla has been a hot stock. It's hard to justify the P.E. ratio of 169 on Tesla.

It was just yesterday that Tesla reported their European sales were down. Did you see that? 49% year over year.

Well, in Europe. Yeah, Europe. Well, Europe's bringing in Chinese cars, and they're anti-Elon Musk after his Doe Jeffers. Yet the stock has gone from 214 to 361 recently. We'll be right back. But I must have used the wrong line. I've been on the right trail. But I must have used the wrong car.

This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today's Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting edge stories that I can.

To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GuntersonCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show. The Instigator, because that's something, yeah.

We've got to get together.

And, you know, I saw it come in, and it was better than expected. And NVIDIA was up 6.5%, something like that, at one point in time. It's come back. I mean, almost everything in the market has come back quite a bit from the highs prior to the open of the market today. But now NVIDIA is up 4.3%.

Nvidia shares rose in extended trading and, of course, this morning after the Jensen Wang-led company reported fiscal first quarter results and guidance that topped expectations despite the impact of added export control curbs to China. The company earned 81 cents per share on an adjusted basis at the same time revenue rose

sales surged 69 percent year over year not bad for a 3.4 trillion dollar company now their their earnings only grew by 33 percent but that still beat all the estimates their data center revenue jumps 73 percent year over year and of course at the end of our article that was published

On Tuesday. Was it Tuesday? Yes. Yeah, it was Tuesday. It's been a whirlwind, but yeah. It's been a whirlwind of whirlwinds already. It seems only two days ago, but it seems like it was a long time ago. I'm just going to read my comments here on NVIDIA, which, number one, I thumped my chest a little bit on NVIDIA.

calling the bottom of the market during the darkest hour of the market, which I've done four times now in the past. And at the end of the article, I haven't read the comments. I'm sure there's 110. I'm sure they're quite nasty comments.

They usually are. They're lovely. I was peeking at a few of them. The good part is they're all wrong and I'm right. So who the heck cares, you know? But I said at the end of the article, towards the end, I said the portfolios that I manage have rebounded sharply off their lows, which they have. Stocks like Palantir, CrowdStrike, CoreWeave, NVIDIA, Netflix have helped to lead the comeback.

One company that has benefited enormously from the last two plus months and all that has happened is NVIDIA. I'm quoting from the article. NVIDIA reported positive earnings in February, reinforcing its strength in its market position as a global GPU vendor.

Investor confidence in the company helped the stock to rebound quickly when the market value dropped below $100. You could have picked it up for under $100 per share during that early March time period.

But I said analysts still predict further gains in the stock for the year as NVIDIA continues to dominate the semiconductor market. And I would continue to say as I look at the semiconductor sector, whether you're looking at the SOX, which is the Semiconductor Index,

Whether you're looking at SMH, which is the semiconductor ETF, in my mind, there's only one good stock in the semiconductor sector. There's a lot of good companies, but only one good stock, and that is NVIDIA by far. You know, you could maybe make a case for Broadcom and Marvell. Those would be the other two in my book.

But Nvidia is our largest holding. It continues to be. And I went on to say in my article, it remains a favorite of ours and ranks favorably among other stocks. When I wrote the article on Monday, it was ranked number 148 out of 5,094 stocks. Here is why. And then I showed the performance of the stock.

Over the last 10 years, 74.5% per year. That has been the compound average return of the stock, which pays a tiny little dividend, 74.5% per year for the last 10 years. That puts it at the top of the class. That's why we've called it the best stock in the entire market several times over the last several years. During that same period of time, the S&P has averaged 17%.

Over the last three years, NVIDIA's averaged 71% per year. Actually, that's five years. Three years is a 98%, and over the last 12 months, it has definitely leveled off, but it's still up 26% over the last 12 months, while the S&P's up 10%. And most of that has been because of the China issue.

Okay, then I went on to say in the article, in addition to performance, I like to see at least 80% or more upside potential. And I put a screenshot from the app showing 118% potential over the next five years. And I know what you're going to say. Bill, that would put this stock at over $7 billion in market capitalization.

Look, I'm just a math guy. That's all I do is take the numbers and apply them to where the earnings are today, and I apply the estimated five-year growth rate over the next five years. You can extrapolate that out on a napkin. You don't need a quantum supercomputer to do it. You probably do it in your head. I can do it in my head. And then I apply a reasonable multiple, not 100, not 200,

not even 50, a reasonable multiple to those numbers. And I come up with a target price. This is based on actual numbers that are out there. And of course, they're estimates, obviously. But I come up with 118% upside potential and a $285 target price five years from now.

And obviously, the app had a buy rating on the stock right now. And that's what I published on Tuesday in Tuesday's article. Now, you can go to that article and read it for yourself. It's on Seeking Alpha. It's titled, Are the Tariffs Turning Out All Right?

The aftermath of our positive stance on Trump tariffs. That was back on March 8th at the very bottom and the darkest day in the market of 2025. Once again, we called the exact bottom of the market and threw in a winner for you. What more can you ask for? When's your next article? Well, we'll probably put a little more color onto this NVIDIA numbers now that we have them.

and polish up our numbers a little bit going forward. But we obviously remain bullish on NVIDIA.

It's our biggest position. I've never seen a stock go from, you know, a company with just a graphic card. Graphic card, basically. To the Dow. It's in the Dow. I was shocked when they added it to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And the forward P.E. ratio is still very palatable, too. Absolutely. It's a 32 forward P.E. at the moment.

It, along with Palantir, are the two best technology stocks in the world today. There's a lot of also-rans and ones that are good stocks in the tech sector, but those are the two most dominant stocks in the tech sector today. And I stand by what I say. It's not IBM, and guess what? It's not Hewlett-Packard.

Did you see Hewlett-Packard's earnings? No. Talk about a soggy, soggy stock. Now listen, there was a day when Hewlett-Packard and Intel dominated the Silicon Valley. That was a long time ago.

And this is now 2025. And when we come back, we'll talk a little bit about some of the also-ran companies that also reported earnings yesterday. And let's not forget that another member of the Dow reported earnings, one that I am cool on. You know, I've looked at it several times. I've thought about adding it to our dividend-paying portfolio because it does pay a dividend.

But I just can't make a valuation case for the stock more than 70% upside potential, somewhere in there, maybe 75%. And that's Salesforce, CRM. And every time I go to make a case for it and try to talk myself into adding it to the dividend-paying portfolio, I say, no, I can't do it because I can't justify I don't have that 80% to 85% upside potential. And guess what? I was right.

Bill was right again. Salesforce is down 6.1% today, which is not helping the Dow. Salesforce is a very good company, but it's not a very good stock anymore. Their sales were up 8% single digits, and their earnings were up 6% single digits. That stock has come back to earth, which eventually all stocks do. We'll be right back. ♪ music playing ♪

And welcome back here to the Best Stocks Now show. Final segment of the show. Man, this has been a fast-moving hour. Where did the time go?

Ah, okay. Well, let's look at a few other earnings. But I think I just want to reiterate what I said here before we went to break. And that is that, you know, Salesforce, the force is not with it right now. I mean, it's a single-digit grower, 6% growth in sales, 8% growth in earnings. And that does not justify those glamour multiples that it's traded at. In the past, it is a member of the Dow Group.

It's better than most stocks in the Dow, but it doesn't meet our criteria. HP falls after potential impacted tariffs on Outlook. Keeps analysts cautious. All right, now, just for fun, I'm afraid to look. I've never owned Hewlett Packard. I don't think in my entire career.

I'm sure there are those of you out there that remember, and I do remember when it was a powerhouse. I know we've bought a lot of ink over the years. I'd say that's one problem. I bought one of those ones where you buy the whole bottle of ink that goes in. I've never had to replace those. So I don't know where they're making their money anymore. But anyways, this is the HPQ is the hardware version of HP.

They split up like several companies have done over the years into a service division and their hardware division. An investment in Hewlett Packard 10 years ago, it doesn't look that bad, but it's getting worse is the problem. 9.3% per year is what I show, and the S&P has been 17.8%.

Over the last five years, I showed 13.4% per year total return, S&P 18.9. But now it gets really bad. Now it's really gone soggy. It's gone from soggy to soggier to maybe soggiest. I don't know. It's really soggy. Over the last three years, you've lost 8% per year in Hewlett-Packard. Maybe it's a potential turnaround play.

But, you know, there are some things that are so far gone. Intel comes to mind. I thought GE had reached that point until finally Larry Cope came along.

Many guys had tried to turn GE around in the past and failed. Hewlett Packard has had its share of potential turnarounds. Didn't you have Carly Fiorina in there? Yeah, had a lot of CEOs that were supposed to...

make this thing a new and it still still hasn't materialized carly fiorina ended up running for president right yeah yeah exactly trump kept making fun of her facelift and you know i mean just the normal stuff and then of course i think meg whitman ran hewlett packard maybe for a while she came from ebay she ran for governor of california of course her being a conservative she did not have a chance

And I think she failed to make a dent in it. Over the last 12 months, the stock's down 14%.

It's just an abysmal stock. Yet, what's the institutional ownership of Hewlett-Packard? That's what I was actually, you beat me to it. That's what I was thinking. I bet it's pretty heavy. I mean, these are the kind of stocks, they love big names that have been around for a long time. Dinosaur-like earnings and growth just stuck in the mud. It's trading at a P.E. ratio of 8%.

What do you show as the institutional sponsorship? It's popping up right now, 80%. There you go. So somebody owns these stocks, and when it's institutions, generally speaking, you're talking the big firms, okay? Your big wire house firms. And I've obviously seen it show up in lots of...

of portfolios that has transferred to me. And you say, well, Bill, why would they own a stock that's hitting new lows, that's tried about every CEO out there, turnaround expert, nothing's worked. They do. You have to ask them because it's a recognizable name that people feel comfortable with that

Pretty much don't know very much about how you value stocks, how important growth is. They just know the name. They just know the company by the name. Okay, now the next one here that we'll bring up here, AI. They got the symbol AI and it's having a great day. Their sales were up 26%. They're not profitable yet.

But that stock's up 29% here so far. It's only a $3.9 billion company. It's very small, small cap. The symbol is AI. It's having a good day. Then there's Box. Box is a software stock.

Is that the old Square? No. No, Square is still SQ. Or is it? Oh, no, Square is Block. That's it. Yeah, Block. Okay, Box is a software company. It's up. It had a big day yesterday.

I can't figure out why. It's a cloud-based stock. They've got single-digit growth, but they crushed their estimates. So, okay, it is what it is. I don't have any interest. And then another two others here in the last two minutes. Macy's dying a slow death. You know, it's just a little by little. It gets whittled away at. It's now $3.3 billion.

small cap stock. And the other one that has to have a lot of short interest is Kohl's, who actually beat their earnings estimates. It's now under a billion in market cap. It's a micro cap. It looks to me to be on a death spiral, similar to the one that Bed Bath & Beyond was on. It's actually up 2.8% today. They lost...

They lost less money than they expected to lose. There's the good news. And the good news is we're out of time and we've still got the four-week trial to the whole enchilada, the whole package, everything we offered other than the money management. That's our main gig at Gunderson Capital Management.

And if you're stuck, if you see Hillel Packard in your portfolio or Macy's or Kohl's, I'd be pretty mad. Somebody's asleep at the wheel out there somewhere. Anyways, I see a lot of it. I mean, I see portfolios show up here all the time that are just full of stuff. I got one today that I got to go through. A couple of them.

and do some heavy weeding. I've got my gardening gloves and my weed eater out and ready to go to work. Put me to work for you. Put the team to work for you. 855-611-BEST to set up an appointment. Say, I'm not going to put up with this mediocrity anymore. 855-611-BEST. Have a great day, everybody.

Thank you.