Thursday Nov. 21, 2024 - Nvidia??
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He's been seen on C, N, B, C, the first news gentle and the first channel articles can be found market, seeking out the street that come and many other places. He's the author of the weekly best stocks now newsletter and the inventor of the best dogs. Now these president of gunterson capital management here is professional money manager.

GrAnderson and welcome to the thursday, the day after the a big invidia report on this november twenty first. This is the best talks now show with professional money manager bill gunterson, president of gunterson capital management. And as usual, I mean, with very kind our charted financial.

And as the nas deck is down, I think a lot of that is alphabet, formally known as google, which would get to in a bit the nastec down one fifty two right now to eighteen, eight hundred and thirteen. The dow, on the other hand, is up eighty five points to forty three thousand four hundred and ninety three. The S M, P.

Five hundred is down a quarter of a percent right now of fifty nine o two. Fifty nine o two and small caps are up three quarters of a percent here so far today. The bond markets very quiet.

The ten years is sitting at four point four o very little change there. We're getting a new ODM high in bitcoin today. That's just a crazy story there. It's a two thousand three hundred and thirty five.

It's ninety six thousand thousand seven hundred and thirty soon to become one hundred thousand IT looks like from my perspective and the oil gold pretty quiet here today, a lot to talk about a with the NVIDIA and goal pretty much in the the headlines today. So welcome to today's best dogs now show with professional money manager bill gunterson, president of gunterson capital management. And here very, quite well, where did we end? Yesterday, we were offing the big earnings report from invidia, and the market did improve towards the end of the day.

Yesterday, the doubt closed up one hundred and thirty nine points after being down the nas deck was down just a little bit after being down a lot more. A netflix hit another all time high yesterday and target lost twenty percent of its market cap yesterday um in just one day not a good day for for target yesterday and and then of course, at about four twenty years. So first we had earnings come in from snow as the service, now snowflake, snowflake.

And then we had earnings come in from palo alto networks and then the earnings came in from NVIDIA, which will get to hear in a bed. okay. But first we begin with the world news, the global news, and we kind of work our way down to the individual stocks.

The by administration moves to council four point seven billion dollars of ukraine debt. Do we get the vote on that? I don't know. But let just forgive the debt any sense more military aid, which is fifty eight days left in his term, he's sending an age package or two hundred and seventy five million here. Here's the, here's the one that gets me, which includes nuclear protective gear, barry, after he authorize the use of, you know, those us. Missiles, which are much more precision and longer range than the missiles they have and the land mines that he approved yesterday.

So anyway.

where we are case.

just in case, are some nuclear stuff to put on in case you get a nuclear attack. okay. Let's get to nvidia's results.

You know when at first when the earnings first came out, I would say at one point maybe IT was down four percent or so in video reported earnings ah, that looked to be pretty exceptional to me. Let's see they beat earnings, you know, by five or six cents, not by a huge, huge gap, but a decent gap. And then they beat their sales by a decent gap.

And then they gave guidance, and through the night and video, was trading maybe down two, three percent that drew even a few times IT open to the upside this morning. IT has been all over the map. And as we look at NVIDIA right now, and video is down one point four percent to one hundred and forty three dollars and eighty two cents now.

So fairly charmed, fairly tame yeah. But overall, I don't know what they expect. They also declared red a dividend of one cent.

Okay, we're not in IT for the dividend, I can tell you that. But IT does help us uh, have IT in our dividend and growth portfolio. okay.

So I sent out a chart this morning, a one year chart on in video a to all our are a life trading, a trial people, and that are life trading active subscribers and clients that also want to get this kind of information and taught a little lesson. And I showed on the chart that I use where you find the annual earnings growth for invidia. And I circled IT over the last five years in videos.

S annual earnings s growth has been sixty six percent per year. okay. And um this year twenty twenty four, they are actually there are twenty twenty five fiscal year, so they have a weird you're in their earnings.

We're going to be up one hundred and twenty four percent in twenty twenty five versus twenty twenty four and in twenty twenty six are looking for forty nine percent growth. okay. And then I also circle where you see the quarterly earnings growth, and it's no longer four hundred percent.

I mean, that's not sustainable that finally get into a mathematical issue. Their earnings only went up a third and three percent this quarter, all right, but that I think they were expecting seventy five cents and they came in at eighty one cents instead. So I mean, some of the headlines i've seen and video is growth is slowing down.

Well, come on. IT was at a meteoric pace. Eventually, A, A, A jet that takes off from a, an aircraft Carrier is going to start the level off a little bit in its ascent.

And you know you can't keep up four hundred and fifty five percent growth, but they came in with eighty one sense versus forty cents last year. That's one hundred and three percent growth in earnings. Their sales were up ninety four percent.

So you're starting to see a declaration in sales growth. No longer is at two hundred and sixty five percent, two hundred and sixty two percent. Instead, it's a paul three ninety four percent, barry, which you can compare with like gets earner's growth, which has actually been negative now for the last four quarters.

And you look eventually mathematics are going to catch up with you. But still, this remains probably the fastest growing stock in the entire market. And then comes the couple things, couple times of how long can they set up.

right? That's where I was looking at in terms of the black. Well, they expected to exceeds supply for at least several quarters into fiscal twenty twenty six. Um there are rather harper, you know harper, a shipments of you know have been kicking off coming, I think, in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty five. So there essentially making as much as as much as that can be made and and still have additional demand capacity. And when you look at their margins, we know once I get this black world chip ramped up in terms of new production they're expecting in margins in mid seventies.

Yes, member lizbeth war and wanted to an investigation of mcDonald because their margins are, what? Six percent or seven percent, something like that on every number they sell. How about an invidia ship where the margin is seventy percent? Elizabeth, you know, we're going to investigate for Price gouging here.

So anyways, I mean, there's just some ludicrous things that I see in the market on a daily basis. I would just say that if you're going to own a large cap growth, how can you not include in video at this point in its life span, life cycle? How can you not include in video, which is by far the fastest? Now if the P.

E ratio were two hundred and fifty, which is not the peas fifty six right now, the forward pe, just doing the math in my hands, about thirty five times or earnings that, that compares to the market, which is twenty two times forward earnings. But invidia is growing a lot faster, obviously, than the overall all market and deserves them more bigger than the market. I guess my question would be, when does in video, when is the world saturated with these these high speed chips, AI chips, and the demand starts to really fall off? I mean, how long can NVIDIA sustain this kind of growth for now?

I would just say, you know, it's a whole the strong hold for now. Is that a buy right here? Well, I think IT needs to get a little momentum back for that, to be honest with you needs to break through that one hundred and fifty area.

And if that does that, I would call a bi once again. All right, we'll be right back. This is the best dogs.

And walking back to the second quarter of today's best dogs now show, well, let's see what the street has to say in vidia, earning a report. They save, for the most part, results and guidance, where exception, robo exception, all wall street says, ignore the noise. Well, there is a lot of noise, has been a lot of noise ever since they announce there.

There are results. We've got bernstein analyst dc raz gone. Raising her Price target to one seventy five from one fifty five is currently at about one forty eight. That's a good Price target raised there, saying that nvidia's q three results were very solid with record data center revenue at thirty billion dollars, which beat the streets estimate of twenty nine billion dollars.

Blackwell demand still appears .

off the chart and is likely to exceed supply for some time to come with this prospect for a very strong forthcoming data center year. Still easily in the cards. You know, I find IT amazing that IT coin, which has no fundamental whatsoever ver, this continues to explode like a rocker's closing in on one hundred thousand, no earnings reports, no battle and sheet, nothing.

And you've got a solid company like in video, one of the great world stocks. I don't think the stocks has ever gone from nothing to the doll and IT not a time that IT did. Uh and yet it's kind of just been kind of been going sideways here for the last to several months.

I think eventually 只是 确认 yeah three and a half trillion biggest company of all time。 I think eventually IT will break out to the upside, but that's what needs to happen and needs to gather some momentum again. Piper sandler, on the other hand, is being a little conservative with its guidance, given that is going through a product transition. Ah he's got one hundred and seventy five dollar Price target also that usually what are six to twelve months Price target on on these stocks that they put out I put out of five .

year Price target um back amErica .

analysts at the stock could turn that means sideways in the near term on the lack sisal. But in video is still the undisputed leader in moving one trillion dollars of legacy infrastructure into accelerated systems. It's also the fastest growing make a cap stock, and IT has a solid free cash flow that should provide adequate firepower for cash and returns.

So this is coming from bank of america. They have a Price target of one ninety. So one forty eight, you would say, hi, that's a pretty good, pretty good upside city analyst.

That city group has one hundred and seventy five dollar upside, a potential for them in the shorter term. And they say that in video remains a stock to own in this AI fuel market. But the ora of invincibility might be showing cracks.

Well, what's the sibling? I mean, the invention book is that they finally catch up with the demain, and the supply starts to outstrip the demand and the Price maybe starts to go down. A competitor comes along the only competitors right now, and their distant a competitors would be A M B, which really hasn't made any inroads at all into and video kingdom and wAiling would be the other one.

Willy is going to have an AI chip of their own. Some, i'm next year now. Are they to. away. Wow, my microphones messing up. Point I got to get a new one, is why we cutting in? Will war way cut be able to engineer? I would think that would be very, very difficult if a mb is not able to do IT IT would seem like that would be difficult for a long way .

to do that also. Well, you you'd always be you d always be step behind, right to mean and and what's going to matter, I think on the AI front, obviously, a speed, which is why there's really only one ship in that seems to be only one ship in the game at the moment. So .

absolutely OK at the end of yesterday's trading, and I kept a little score card. There's an there's an unusual large amount of of good stocks in the market right now, but a lot of more pretenders. And it's because all the moments that came into the market to start settled down, but I still have let me see my list today, I think is nine hundred.

And so which is they are nine hundred and seventy two to look at Normally in the four, five, six hundred range. But I I will say this, I kept the little list that maybe has thirty or forty stocks in on IT, and I sent this list out to the folks that are on the the live trading platform and thirty forty stocks there. Oh, at least these are the best charts in the market now, charts in the market now. Now I have to bring together valuation momentum and chart all three and one. But I else look, I will .

look .

at the strongest momentum. Stocks are included in my list of nine seventy two and then I have a list that I keep of the strongest charts in the market. I would just say that the the big shift right now is going into is going into natural gas stocks, and I see a lot of them on my list, dear, like cn x uh, comstock resources E Q T which is another natural gas stock.

E X E which is a natural gas stock. Kg s which provides tracking equipment, ovv, ranger resources, range resources, which has been A A good one in the past one. And you know IT also seems to be a rotation that's not really including IT is to some extent, the oil producers, but leaning way more heavily to the liquid and to the look to the natural gas producers.

And there is a difference and some companies focus, other companies do both. But I see that european and natural gas Prices rise you to date to the to a high a year to date eye that U N, G. And that medical risk.

okay. And I would also say to me that natural gas is much more sensitive oil to the heightened geopolitical risk that used to be that any that trouble in the middle east, you are going to see oil. But today, it's its natural gas where you're seeing the.

Your political risk that something to think about. And there are some really good looking natural gas stocks right now. Now when we come back, what is going on at google or google? A big impact on the nas, not a big impact. What is down point seven percent right now? This is bill gander's is the best dogs now show will be right back.

right, please. But been around. I don't see. Right thing.

This is bill Anderson. Thank you for tuning into today's best stocks. Now best inverse funds now show. I put several hours of research in during the we hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting its stories that I can to get two, three weeks of my news letter.

Go to gunterson capital dot com to talk to us about our fee based only money management services. Call us at eight, five, five, six, eleven best. Now back to the second half of the show.

Because of something.

And welcome back here to the second half of today's best stocks now. So well, i'll have a new microphone by tomorrow. Thanks the amazon.

Yeah, now, but in the meantime, i've gonna finish up the show. You said they would on my, on on my iphone. The department of justice seeks crime.

In the case of google monopoly, you know very IT amazes me. Why is google a monopoly and amazon not a monopoly? Any thoughts on that? I already of your .

big tech names. I mean, just I don't know it's of it's certainly in a different realm, but IT just feels like it's almost sty equivalent in my book of biden allowing missiles in ukraine. It's like on the way out, right, for like the administration is just fireing missiles at the companies that theyve been wanting to.

They are open that four more years of them under their thumb, right? And so I guess at the end here, they really want to push the issue. I don't know.

Well, I mean, google dominates the search, okay? NVIDIA dominates AI chips, right? I mean, you could you could make the case for a lot of people is that dominated space for whatever reason.

You know google became a verb IT literally became a verb. Uh you google IT and that sends you to the google search engines, which are very valuable because then you can pay um for favor autism in the search engine. I mean, that's why they change their name to out of that.

If I want to own the search, uh let's to say local investment advisers, um I could pay a heck of a lot of money, right? And every time somebody tips that in and that search brings us up on top of the search bar that's worth a lot of money, they in a way, they own the alala habet. I guess IT used to be the yellow pages.

When I was growing up, to be on the inside cover of the yellow pages caused a lot of money. But to have a full page add on the yellow pages cost a lot of money. To just be listed in the yellow page just caused very little to the same concept. Only google is a lot more powerful, obviously, than the yellow pages.

I didn't start out as the only one I mean, he used to have. I mean, you get to remember there was years ago, right? You had like cows.

I mean, you get news. You can remember all these old commercials of where to go search. And Frankly, at some point they had the best trap, right, in terms of what drove IT to them. And of course, they've created their own ecosystem, especially when you tied to to android note, not much different than apple tying a lot of you tying you to their ecosystem if you're using an .

iphone or apple. Yeah, yeah. Well, yes, it's a problem in as that here today they want google to sell its crime web brows er now I don't know how you do that.

I don't know that this connects them from the google search. Well, I mean, they went after microsoft in the day for being a monopoly. Uh so anyway, it's not heard if we don't own google.

Uh, but this is definitely going to really put a curtailment on any advance. And after that stock, which is considered one of the big seven um which is one of the things stocks is the g and things. So anyways, that's where we stand today with this action.

You know like like barred fifteen nine days before uh IT seems like I don't know IT seems like baggers for filling a lot of favors or what not promises that he is an office here and going after alphabet as being the monopoly seems to be one of them. Articles founder bill wings, that the eighteen years in prison over fraud, the reason I bring this up this, there's a lot of similarities, and there's connections between him and cathie woods art funds. Bill wang was very, very aggressive.

He ran the tiger. Let's see what the tiger I can think about. Some add tiger in the name fun. And that he was leverage at the end.

I mean, eventually he had to stop managing public money, and he he was managing a family office of money in the billions of dollars that has a lot less regulation than do the, you know, the head slide world. And his big claim defended, he ran five billion, enough to like, I think, fifty billion, something like that. But he was leverage Spiked the one in very few stocks. And he had his position spread out among several firms and each firm did not know about the position that he had at the other firms. So he had used positions in stocks like I do I remember was one .

of um I can't remember .

some of his other whole things but when that came on wound, that was one of the biggest financial uh, hits of all point in the financial world because these companies that had sent him the money to get so leveraged, they ended up losing billions of dollars each one of the companies and these were big companies. I mean, he was with the, I don't think is what jb. Morgan, but he was with several banks of that side.

Now, the time to happy woods. Well, in the early days he gave cappy words, the sea money to start arc, A, R, K, and h SHE had kind of a similar style of very, very, very aggressive with no risk management. And you know, in Cathy woods taking, I don't know if you had a one time, seventy, eighty billion out down, about sixty billion has vanish in losses and and withdraws.

But most of the losses this horrible, horrible returns after SHE was considered the rocks star during the code year ah and especially twenty twenty one, when all of those cove stocks post coped when all those stocks went to the moon, they were calling her a genius. Well, okay, since then SHE has has some horrible years and he has not even kept up with the S M. P.

Five hundred and with an extraordinary amount of and I read an article about her yesterday because of this waiting news and SHE was let go from burns steam and you know they said he has no, he has a big hole in her methodology and its rist management. This management is somewhere saying you're wrong and cutting your loss and not writing IT down til the ground rise. Management is not making huge bets and then doubling down on them as they go down.

And that's what wine did to its tech. But now he's going to get eighteen years in prison. Boeing C E L O tels employees that the aviation giant can't afford. Another mistake. Well, you think that's the first cape, but yeah, I would say no, make sense.

Yeah no. IT 不是。 Is passengers on a plane? I don't know. We can hand mistake.

yeah. I would say the same thing as I get on a boeing jet. You can't afford another mistake. And I would say this, I mean, boeing stock is still very, very weak even though they solve the the strike issue. Uh, the company is still burning through billions of dollars, and it's really kind of run dry as as far as where to turn for more.

And layoffs in house and layoffs ate last week. And I think have been pretty sure. I think and you know some of those contacts over there here in town, but I think some think some jobs here are going to be affected here and rose them.

Well, they need to sell, put out. They need to push off the assembly line, thirty eight planes a month to get back to positive cash flow. And I think their latest months was like thirteen.

Blame something like that. So man, i'll tell you what they are. A they are on at walking a type rope, uh, right now over there at at boeing.

IT continues to be a troubled stock in the doll, and IT does look like it's put in the bottom, but they've got to execute. They've got to get that production line back up the thirty eight planes a month just to break even OK. Lets see what else we got here today.

Well, we talked about APP love in a want various opinion on this. Apple love has been one of the best stocks in the market this year. And over the last couple of years, we're up, I think, over seven hundred percent on IT. Now they're going to flow three point five billion dollars of bonds. And this is an interesting offering, really because it's the next five years, five and and eight percent, five point one to five, which aren't we once you say it's fair to say we're in a four and a half percent world right now. Marriage, you're looking at a one to five.

eight, four, one to five.

Okay, now I want to come back. Why would they need to float funds at this point in their life? Will be right now.

You got to go where you wanna go.

And looking back here to the final segment of today's best dogs now show on this post in video earnings day um met what kind of mixed results so far? I will settle bound, and I personally think that will go on to hit new highs at some point in time. I think I will break out at some point through that.

The resistance level, i'd like to see that happen. Get a little moment to underneath IT. The valuation certainly supports that. Um but for now, I guess it's it's a debate, right is the debate that's taking place on the stock. In the meantime, as I look underneath the market here and i've started my journey through nine hundred and seventy two different h stocks that meet my bacteria and one way or another here today, I would say the pretty healthy market, especially in tech, uh, here this morning, that looks a lot Better underneath the surface.

Sometimes you'll have one or two stocks really do, uh, the market a one way or another and uh, you look under needles, wanted to stocks and you see a different story and I would just say to you right now that i'm seeing a pretty good story here underneath the surface of the market, but there's definitely rotation taking place in the market. We had a seismic shift, if you didn't notice. So we could go wednesday when when the old regime was voted out, the new regime was voted in. And you've seen massive, massive ships and changes. And, uh, you know, people looking ahead .

to what .

was been her factor, right? Okay, why would APP love in which is make had gone up so much? Why do they why would they flow bonds at this point in their life? That twenty billion dollar company, by the way.

Now no great, great, great, great question text to me this morning on IT. And the essentially, they're paying off. They're current completely senior debt of facility that they have. Now that's three, three point four seven billion is essentially what they're paying off.

And if you look at their waited average costs, a capital for the death that they currently know, currently own or currently have outstanding is mean roughly around eight point seven percent. And so there turning around, obviously, their equity position is gotten stronger and their debt equity position is stronger. And so in these and this dead environment, right, they're able to float to what a million mp, I think it's a billion dollars at five point one, two, five percent.

And they're floating another billion for for a couple years longer down the road at five point three, seven, five billion and in another billion at five and half of what thing to do in number twenty thirty four. So they're improving their sensually. Their business has gone Better and they're able to get debt cheerly, which is what you you like to see.

And I don't think they have any trouble fighting fires. Were those bonds at five in and eight year were look IT into them? They may be right already, I don't know. So in a foreign half percent of world right now ah the other thing would say, I mean, if the company the other choice would be to float more shares of and so using to go this path.

which is .

Better for the shareholder and it's more conventional it's a more conventional .

lending a facility verses say a convertible note right IT from with a convertible note as IT can be end up trading a lot like equity at some point and can delete and investors this delude equity investors in this particular deal. It's a straight to straight bad deal and will look into yes, we're there are .

only going to look into IT. So how can the individual look into can an individual get in an a like this?

Yeah, most nowadays with boundary, most folks, you know, you can go to you look at them, know they're calling, you know, bond trading or fixed income, right? Even go there, a lot of them will still at you searched by a symbol. IT may take that.

I don't know when these notes are actually going to to float. I think I think it's fairly soon. Usually december fifth looks like. And so yet sometime around december fifth, you can look there and of systems or let you use search via stocks symbol and then you can do make key as you want to make sure you look at the the maturity in terms of how far you're going out because there's looks like four different options here.

So you put up a thousand dollars in increments of a thousand, uh, and they pay you five in the eight, usually what twice per .

year um yeah .

which would be five years. In this case, you get your principal back and if the principal will fluctuate in between because of interest rate but nothing like the stock, okay, nothing like the stock of APP. Uh, you may cluck maybe two or three percent one way or another, you know, during the course of a year.

So that's how that works. You know there's a lot of people that sell alternative investments that, that are supposedly not correlated to the stock market. I just say for the person uh that you know is happy with something in the five percent range, uh you know I think to me that's one of the Better uh alternative investments to equalities.

And obviously, I mean our bond fun knows about ten. We easily put about ten in in a porfolio. So like a hundred thousand dollar portfolio, thousand dollars each. Now those are further folks that can stand the volatility, look at the world or can help .

or help offset or or help offset the volatile you're taking out where and a orta, a IT is truly kind of a you that the summer or concept in terms of alternative investment is supposed to reduce your correlation. Well, no holding, especially if you're willing to hold the bond to maturity.

doesn't mean we will have to. But when when moving IT?

Yeah but if you're modeling IT as a non as as a non core waited asset and you know what really is if you you under the assumption you end up but holding IT to maturity. So because you're not worried about Price luxury. And in that.

well, i'm already taken about this week's newsletter. We have a lot of people that have signed up for the three, four week trial. I think this in their second week course.

A lot of new people up along the way of that offer is still valid to a train along a well to to watch the market along with bill on a daily basis. This year for four weeks, you go to gunterson teach as much as possible. I give examples, and I let you know what that we're buying and selling a here at gander's capital a.

Again, you go to gunterson capital dot com to spend up an appointment with us to discuss whether where your summer ability lies, where are your risk tolerance, life, where your current plan lies, that have been apply to what is the eight, five, five, six, eleven. And that is eight, five, five, six, eleven. Best have a great day, everybody.

This show is not a solicated to buy our, sell any securities, build gunners, son or client to gunterson capital management may have long or short positions and stocks mention during the show, best performance is not indicated of future performance of some capital management is a fee registered investment advisory firm. All the council are held at child swab. Swab is a member of vipers and fera.