Tuesday Apr. 15, 2025 - AMD to make chips in America for the first time ever
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He's been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He's the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app.

He's president of Gunderson Capital Management. Here is professional money manager, Bill Gunderson. And welcome to the Tuesday. It's the Tuesday. I don't even want to say the date today. It's tax day. Everybody knows when that deadline is. You know, the market's getting healthy here. This is Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. This is the Best Docs Now show.

The Dow up 152 points. Where are all the naysayers now? It's at 40,676. The Nasdaq's up 97 points after tech stocks get a tariff reprieve yesterday.

And the NASDAQ closing in on 17,000. Again, we're at 16,928. It's up 58 basis points today. The S&P is up 26 points. That's about a half of a percent right now. Interest rates are up a few points today, but they were down. No, actually, they're down now a couple more points. We're down to 4.36 after hitting 4.51 just a few days ago.

Gold is hitting a new high today, $3,237. We have Bitcoin up today. Bitcoin is up 1.69% to $1,429.

So welcome to today's Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. And I'm here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst. And just from my perspective and, you know, from a numbers point of view, we're back up to 250 stocks.

B-plus or better ranked stocks right now. We were down to 89 just a few weeks ago. So you could say that the market is getting better. It is healing from the deep sell-off. We had a decent day yesterday. The Dow was up 312. The NASDAQ was up 107. The 10-year went down 13 basis points.

I see our old Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says they're dumping our bonds because they have no faith in the U.S. government. Well, you know what, Janet? I don't have much faith in you. I didn't have much faith in her. She was one of those there's no limit to what government can spend proponents, which they call that the new... What did they call that? They had a word for that, the new economic philosophy, which is exactly opposite of Milton Friedman and others.

And she says that countries around the world think we have bad policies, so they're dumping our bonds. Well, so much for that. We'll see. They've got to put the money somewhere, by the way. Yes, I know. We're going to put it in Mexican bonds. Gold stocks had another good day yesterday.

uh zuckerberg is in court i haven't really been following that but there's a big trial taking place right now about i think it's the uh the uh you know monopoly type stuff that they're looking at and essentially i think it you know that they that they're you know they've got instagram right and uh and facebook and obviously other other pieces of that puzzle so yeah they they they have a

I think the argument is that they have a controlling stake there in some form or fashion, and WhatsApp. I mean, throw WhatsApp in there. We've done articles in the past. I mean, how many users around the globe are on WhatsApp, which is essentially a communications app? Yeah.

They definitely have some degree of a monopoly. As I read through the news, especially on the macro calls, I mean, politics has definitely entered into the analyst game, okay? If you don't like Trump's policies, you say that we're headed for a recession, a dire recession, and 4,800 on the S&P 500.

If you're just kind of neutral and look at the numbers and just use a little bit of logic and leave your bias aside, not a whole lot has changed. Maybe earnings estimates and target prices have gone a little lower. And then there's those that just can't put a positive spin on anything that he does. Everything is negative.

Deutsche Bank calls it, guess the tariff game. He says, how do you even invest in this market when we play guess the tariff game on a daily basis? Well, I think the tariff game, personally, and I've written about this, and I've been right so far, I think it has a definite end point, and I think it has a definite goal that it wants to achieve.

And I think that it's a clearly laid out plan that is being followed. And yes, it was very disruptive to begin with. Absolutely disruptive. But I think, you know, in a negotiation game, you have to get the other side's attention sometimes with something really big. And it got the world's attention. 90 countries have come to the table so far wanting to make a deal.

And according to Hassett, who is Trump's National Economic Council director, he said the White House has received at least 10 amazing offers for trade deals. And now listen to this. Okay, this is not what the analysts are saying. He's not an analyst. He's just a...

the National Economic Council director, he says that 100% a recession is not going to happen after Donald Trump's imposed tariffs on imports from many of the country's trading partners were placed on them. But now, you know, we're in the negotiation phase. We're in phase two of all of this.

So anyways, 10 amazing offers. That's what he claims out of 90. And, you know, I've heard a lot of pundits, I mean even conservatives, saying that what we need are some deals. Okay, Japan, done. Out of the way. Let's move on.

And I know that they have prioritized them, right? And Besson mentioned actually, he had an interview, he did an interview sometime right after the market closed yesterday. I need to go back and watch the full piece. I've seen some excerpts. But he named off countries that he wanted to focus on, at least initially, right? And it was Japan, South Korea, Japan.

um england and australia i think a couple more there and there is there is a mission that runs through all of those countries too they don't like china i mean they're opposed to china it is containment certainly and what china has done to them so yes i mean he is kind of ganging up okay you can have vietnam that's where she went yesterday went to vietnam

Cambodia, and I think maybe Malaysia. Not exactly powerhouses around the world. And Trump said, okay, I'll see your Vietnam, I'll see your Malaysia. And we're close to deals with Japan, South Korea, Australia, you know, major economies around the world.

And, of course, the U.K. was complaining yesterday. They regret ever letting China into their steel industry because they didn't play fair. And now they're getting rid of them. So he's obviously getting trade partners. And, of course, those that came back and retaliated,

which I can only think of a couple, really. I mean, the ones that are still out there kind of on the bubble, well, China, number one. And China is not backing down. Today they put a halt on Boeing deliveries. Yesterday it was rare earth. They didn't talk over the weekend.

And they continue to buzz Taiwan with their naval fleet and with fighter jets and whatnot, which who knows? I mean, you have to. It was interesting in his interview, Besant, that I listened to the first one he did with. Now, he's been with everybody now just about on every channel. But he was originally, I listened to the Tucker Carlson interview because it was very much in depth. It was one hour long.

Yeah, certainly.

A weapons war, you know, if China were to invade Taiwan, you can't rule that out. I mean, they're kind of backed into a corner. And sometimes people, when they're backed into a corner like that, lash out. But we hope that cooler heads will prevail.

I don't think that would be good for the stock market if China were to invade Taiwan, but they're definitely rattling their saber in that direction right now. And they seem to be getting madder and madder and madder, especially now as they're going to start making a lot of those advanced chips here in the U.S. So let's hope.

that China comes to their senses and sits down at the table. It wouldn't be good for them either to invade Taiwan. Let's not forget there would be some serious consequences if that were to happen. But you know what? You have to always weigh all of the things that could happen out there. And that's what Besant, that was the point he was making as far as risk management. So keep your eye on those negotiations with China.

and what China is doing with Taiwan right now. We'll be right back. What are you feeling?

And welcome back here to the second quarter of today's Best Stocks Now. So one other thing that China is doing in retaliation, of course they've been doing this off and on for many years, that Taiwan Strait, 20% of all commerce passes through that Taiwan Strait. 20% of all global commerce. And they've been playing games and blocking it and being very aggressive there also. So that's another thing we have to be aware of.

Rare Earth is another. Now, I'm not talking about the Detroit band that ripped off a bunch of Motown songs like Get Ready and Let's See I'm Losing You and a couple others from The Temptations. We'll be headed back to Motown a little bit later this year. But Rare Earth, we're talking about those 17 elements of

In the, what do you call that chart that they used to pull down? I remember my chemistry. The old periodic table. Periodic tables would pull down that chart. They're the ones that are usually towards the bottom. Yes, in his monotone droning voice. Now, today we're going to talk about...

We're going to talk about antimony or whatever the case may be. But there's five stocks I want to bring to your attention. It is a big deal. Okay, let's – I don't want to discount this at all.

Chemistry was my kryptonite. Yes, it was. No, I loved chemistry. I really did. It was interesting, but yeah, it didn't click. Yeah, I kind of liked it. It was kind of like picking stocks a little bit. It made sense to me, logical sense. So anyways, MP Materials.

That's the old Mountain Pass. They're on the road to Las Vegas between LA and Las Vegas. Mountain Pass yesterday was up, let's see, it's down 2% today, but it was up 14% yesterday.

And then of course there is the antimony stocks and I sent those out yesterday. They were way up yesterday and I sent out an alert to all my subscribers on both of those antimony stocks. Perpetua is one of them.

uh u.s antimony i sent out an alert no i didn't send an alert but there's another one called u r a r which is u.s rare earth uh and then there's a fifth one which is probably getting the one that the metals company tmc but i want to say that's a canadian stock yes it's canadian so who knows that they would share their rare earth with us

It was way up this morning. MP is the one that took off yesterday. Yeah, oh no, all five of them did. TMC was up 30% yesterday, and today it was way up this morning, and now it's being sold off. So it looks like the new frontier is not space, but under the sea. Yeah.

Okay, maybe they'll find some mermaids down there and maybe they'll find some rare earth. I don't even know where you'd begin to look, but they must know the kind of seabed that you need under the water. And, you know, Trump is putting a lot of money towards that. And then, as we said yesterday, the backup plans would be Ukraine. They don't seem to be budging. I haven't seen much progress being made between Ukraine and Russia yet.

And then, of course, Greenland, which would be quite the long shot there.

Let's see. So anyways, keep your eye on the rare earth. I'm sure they're going to have a rare earth ETF here before long. Maybe they already do. Let's just type in the symbol rare. My guess is they have something out there. Yeah, I don't. Okay, the symbol rare is already taken. Whether it tracks well or not, I'm sure somebody has the idea. Okay, earnings today we've heard from Bank of America. The banks have all done well so far.

We've heard from Johnson & Johnson. So far, earnings season is going very well, despite all of these downgrades on the S&P 500. We've heard from a Citigroup today. I would just say all the banks came in better than expected. Tomorrow, again, is Abbott Labs, Kinder Morgan, ASML.

Which is still a big, they make the equipment. It doesn't matter whether these chips are made in Taiwan or Phoenix. Quite a difference between Taiwan and Phoenix. They got to have ASM equipment to make those NVIDIA chips.

CSX will report tomorrow. Travelers then Thursday, which is the last trading day of the week. Giant Netflix, and there is news on Netflix. And also we're going to get earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday. UnitedHealthcare, Blackstone, American Express, DR Horton, Schwab. So the week will end with a bang on Thursday as the bell closes.

And then on Friday, it's Good Friday, and the markets will be closed. China orders freeze on Boeing deliveries. So obviously, they keep amping up the rhetoric. Okay. Can China...

Go it alone, you think, Barry. Do you think if China said, okay, we're done with you, U.S., you know, we're just not going to travel? Well, I mean, they've been trying to build a middle class for an extended period of time, and COVID actually really kind of knocked it down. But, you know, they've been trying to, in all economies, as you move, you know, early on, you're a manufacturing economy, and you move towards more of a service-based economy, and

And at the same time, as you're moving to that service-based economy, well, obviously, you're going to become a consumer, right, and usually a net importer from everything else around you, right? And at this point, right, they just don't have that internally. No, look at their massive trade deficit or trade surplus. Their trade surplus is massive.

So they totally depend on exports. They totally depend on people buying their stuff. So I just don't know if they've really got the cards here to keep playing, but they continue to kind of double down on what Trump does. So who knows? We'll just have to see how it plays out. They're kind of backed into a corner. Will they lash out? Will they come to the negotiation table?

Apollo critiques the 60-40 portfolio. Well, you know what? That's a popular, by the way, that's a very popular plan, which is 60% stocks, 40% bonds. The problem is the returns over time have been mediocre, very mediocre returns.

The bonds were an anchor. Bonds were simply an anchor for, I mean, certainly from 08, 09 right on, you know, really even new. And that's certainly in a low rate environment during that time period too. But the problem is new bonds were issued at a very, very low rate. And so, you know, bonds didn't really do much for 10, 15 years. No, well, for the last three and a half years, a 60-40 portfolio has averaged 2% per year.

And yet the asset allocation model is some variation of that, okay? It varies very little. And that is the dominant portfolio strategy in our industry by far, is an asset allocation, whether it's 60-40, whether it's 70-30, whether it's 40-60.

Somewhere in there, and the results have been mediocre. But you know what? It's like a McDonald's hamburger. Anybody can make it around the world. It tastes the same. At the end of the day, it's very mediocre, but anybody can do it. We'll be right back. And the boys upstairs just don't understand anymore. Well, the top brass don't like him talking so much.

This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today's Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can.

To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersenCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show. The Instigator, because there's something in the air.

We've got to get together sooner or later. And welcome back here to the second half of today's Best Stocks Now show. I just want to put in a quick little plug. Not a plug, but I think that it's a good time. I started my relative value slash value portfolio today.

on April 11th for no no no not April 11th on the 3 31 April 1st actually 3 31 March 31st 2025 I'm up to one two three four five six seven eight nine nine individual stocks have been bought when it's fully fully loaded and

I hope to have 40. So I'm buying 2.5% positions in that thing. And I can just tell you that I'm finding a lot of really good stocks. Maybe they're not the Palantirs of the world or the NVIDIAs of the world, but even some of those qualify right now because it's a relative value slash value. So it can meet either one of those criteria.

have a very low P/E ratio from the intrinsic value point of view, or on a relative basis where a stock has traded an average of 40 times earnings over the last five years and now it's trading at 28 times earnings, for instance, something along those lines. So this is a good time. I mean, if you're looking to get in on start with fresh money, fresh cash, a blank canvas,

I think this is an excellent time to be picking off stocks that are cheap on a relative or on an actual value basis. So you can always give us a call. Also, design, Barry, less volatility, okay?

You're not buying stocks that are breaking out and hitting new highs, which a lot of times... Yeah, they're usually ones that the momentum fell out of them. Yes, and they've fallen out of favor for some reason or another. The nuclear stocks might be a good example. And when you spread it out to 40, I usually own about 20 in the other portfolio, you're just going to have less volatility there.

I mean, it's built for the long haul and it's built for less tax, more favorable taxable consequences. You know, I'm really shooting for mostly long-term gains, but I do manage the downside on each stock also. But we're after a 12-month or more long-term capital gains treatment on that portfolio. So it's not tooting my own horn. It just logic tells me this is a good time.

to be investing in a portfolio like that. So it's one of our new offerings here. I'm up to five or six, I guess, portfolios that I manage on a daily basis. All right, now let's take a look at other news out there. It is a busy day. Check this out.

AMD is set to produce high-performance computing chips at Taiwan Semiconductor's new production site in Arizona. What are we going to call Arizona? You know, you've got the Silicon Valley. There's plenty of silicon. Silicon comes from sand. There's plenty of sand in Arizona. But this will be the first time AMD will produce chips on the American soil.

And I would just say this, Barry, when I listened to Besant's interview with Tucker Carlson, I think the number one objective of what Trump is doing with the tariffs is exactly this. You want to get around the tariffs? Bring your manufacturing to America. And here's another success story. And I also remember a comment that Besant made. He said,

Don't watch the countries as much as you watch what the companies do. Right, exactly. Watch what each company does. Okay. Yeah, I ran into a guy from, you know, ran into a guy from the Phoenix area on vacation, and he's, you know, businesses that he's in, he's a contractor for chip-making companies, right, in terms of, you know, you want a manufacturing plant, and that's what...

That's what he does. He said business obviously has been booming, and then there was a lull there with Intel, I think, kind of slowing down on a project, obviously, just because they're Intel. We know there are challenges. But now, yeah, it's got to be picking back up, I would imagine. Yeah, Texas and Arizona are becoming major hubs for chip making. And I would say another objective of all of this is,

which I am for and behind. I see the wisdom in it all and the beauty in it all. Yes, bring your manufacturing back, but take it from offshore. Think about the security concerns also there from a national intelligence point of view and protecting our infrastructure.

our you know patents and our technology and whatnot and not being reliant with the global supply chain that was another thing that made a lot of sense to me you know i listen to things and i try to find the logic and things and i try to form a an opinion based on logic i also like the logic behind having a supply chain here in america where you know during covid

We expose the weak links in the supply chain, especially in pharmaceuticals. And that's going to be his next tariff area is going to be pharmaceuticals. And obviously, he wants those key ingredients that are made overseas to be made here in America. So anyways, there's another victory there.

for the Bring It Back to America. AMD, for the first time, will be making high-tech chips in Phoenix. Trump hints at an auto-tariff reprieve as companies need time to adjust supply chains. Well, you know what? I mean, that was another thing that came from that Besson interview. Look, none of this is set in stone.

Which all of these forecasts coming out on the S&P 500 and all of this stuff, we're going into a recession. That is based on if things remain the same. Never change. Yeah, that's exactly. And that's where the...

Yeah, and that's where the argument comes in where it's like, you know, okay, certainly you've got some, in terms of what economists say, long-term, right? They can make the argument that they're correct, but the problem fallacy about it is the fact that they're not going to be in place to the extent that they are. There's going to be deals made. That's the opening salvo, right? Right. The opening salvo. This is where we begin, and let's see who comes around. Let's see who brings...

Let's see who lowers their tariffs on us. Let's see who brings their manufacturing. I was reading this morning about Amazon and Bezos. They're working on a $25,000 electric truck.

It sounded really cool. It's going to look like a 50s truck type of style, which I love. My father had an old 50s Ford truck. It was just a great truck. It was sharp. My uncle did as well. And they're even going to put some Model T features into it. They're going to have different models, and they're going to be built where? Detroit, Michigan.

So I think this kind of thing also gets the creative juices flowing. Hey, you know, let's take advantage of it. Let's build something in America and use our ingenuity and our inventiveness, okay? Which Henry Ford obviously did.

the pioneer in all of this. So he hints at an auto tariff reprieve, but I think it's going to be country by country and company by company. But definitely, if you're going to build your cars in Mexico, I think Nissan with their Rogue, which is a very popular car, they've cut production of the Rogue right now, which will drive Rogue prices up probably.

but they're going to shutter the factory in Mexico and start producing them here in America. Okay, let's see what else we got here. New tariffs, U.S. probes pharma, and chip imports impact on national security. So that's all being looked at right now as far as Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Novartis, AstraZeneca,

which bring in components from China and other countries. I know India makes a lot of pharmaceuticals and then packages them all here in America, but that supply chain obviously is an issue. Okay, Citigroup, not a fan of Trump, not a fan of the tariffs, not a fan of the current policies. Citi Strategist sharply cuts S&P 500 target.

Now for me to cut the S&P 500 target, I have to see lower earnings expectations. That hasn't happened yet, but I did do a little bit of those on my own. They've lowered their target price for the end of the year to $5,800. They're cutting their EPS forecast for the index as a whole from $270 to $255. So, you know, I think that's reasonable.

I'm kind of in that same area. But they're using kind of a lower multiple than I would use. But they are not a fan of the current policy. And they say that it's over for U.S. exceptionalism. Cases are fading and tariffs could damage the U.S. EPS the most. We'll be right back. ♪♪♪

You gotta go where you wanna go, do what you wanna do, and live all the way where you wanna go, do what you wanna do. And welcome back here to the final segment of today's Best Docs Now show. Well, you know, they all back on Wall Street from time to time. There's one that goes the opposite way. Mostly, I would say, Wall Street right now.

has been lowering S&P 500 targets, bellyaching about no more printing of money, bellyaching of cutting government spending, bellyaching about the tariffs, on and on and on and on. The one that seems to be going against the grain right now is Oppenheimer.

Oppenheimer is still bullish on U.S. equities amid recent volatility. You know, I was approached by Oppenheimer, Barry, a while back, and they offered me a signing bonus, a pretty hefty one, too, and I turned it down. But I did have a one-hour interview with the CEO of Oppenheimer.

And there's just certain things that I didn't care for. But, you know, Oppenheimer is bullish on the market. So at least we're simpatico there. Well, it's interesting. I've seen you talk about the difference between macro and the micro analysts, right? At the macro level, you've seen reduction in some S&P estimates. Big reductions. Big reductions.

Yeah, but at the company level, you really haven't seen them yet. No. You've seen a few here and there, but I haven't seen a lot of... Have you heard one company, Veliac, yet? Not yet. Not really. I mean, so... Well, yeah, there's a disconnect. I mean, that's why they do the 60-40 allocation or the 70-30. Then they don't have to be picking stocks. They can't make too much and they can't lose too much. That's just the way they do things.

Yellen, our old friend Yellen is Yellen. She claims that the recent bond sell-off, which was what, two days, signals a loss of confidence in U.S. policymaking. Now let me think back. Janet Yellen presided over...

The debt going, you'd have to look this up. What was the national debt when Yellen became the Treasury Secretary? And what was it when she left as the Treasury Secretary? It ballooned under Yellen. She had no problem with printing money and borrowing ad infinitum.

She was a good bond salesman. She was a good bond salesman. She says there's a loss of confidence in U.S. economic policy, that American exceptionalism's days are behind us. And you're calling what you did?

What you did, Ms. Yellen, as the Treasury Secretary, I'll take Besson over you any day of the week. You know, he was a successful, he's a successful businessman, hedge fund manager, brilliant guy. That's all you knew how to do was print money. Anybody can do that. Citi downgrades U.S. equities on tariff concerns.

Okay, raises views on Japan. They say invest in Japan. Get your money out of U.S. stocks and invest in Japan. They're the same company, B of A. Well, no, the B of A was earlier we talked about. They're recommending Church & Dwight. Okay, that's probably the worst consumer stock. If you looked up what that stock has returned over the years, I'm being a little bit, but you know what? There's just a lot of stories there that are easy to pick apart. Church & Dwight?

Their number one brand, Barry, is Trojan. Okay, and I think Arm & Hammer baking soda or something like that. All right. Look at the 10-year and what that stock has returned. It's returned about what the 60-40 plan has done. Now, finally, a good one, Wedbush. You know, you mentioned it yesterday. Palantir did a deal with NATO. You can own Church & Dwight or you can own Palantir. Take your pick.

But then again, you always want to be diversified. You don't want to own just Palantir, but part of a growth portfolio. I mean, it was my number one pick for the year.

There's a Paris trade there to be had. So Palantir's NATO deal places it in a prime position for AI and defense. And, of course, Dan Ives, who's been crying about tech, he called it Armageddon for the tech sector. Armageddon. Yet here he's tooting the horn of Palantir's NATO deal.

Netflix is going to report tomorrow. This is our last story of the day, but there's a story in the Wall Street Journal today, and I agree with this. Netflix is aiming for a $1 trillion market cap by 2030. You can say what you want about Reid. Reid, I can't think of his last name right now, the guy who started Netflix. You can say what you want about him, but what he's accomplished is nothing short of amazing.

Upended, disrupted Hollywood. Totally disrupted Hollywood. Hastings. Yeah, Reed Hastings. Reed Hastings. I was thinking Reed is the last name. It's the first name. And there's another one that we own in our premier growth portfolio. They don't pay a dividend. I can't really call it a value stock. It's pretty expensive. But it's one of the premier growth stocks in the world today if you're looking for large cap growth stocks.

And last but not least, well, we'll do one more story. Marjorie Taylor Greene, here's her portfolio. I would say she's not a very good stock picker. That's just me, okay? Adobe, AMD, Apple, Cummins Engines, Applied Materials, Blackstone. I think she should stick with what she's doing in politics, keep the day job. FedEx, Lululemon, Merck, Nike. That's a terrible company.

As a stock picker, I'd give her a F plus, D minus. But the one you want to follow is Pelosi.

By the way, products we use in life, but not great stocks. No, MTG, not too good at picking stocks. All right, we're out of time. There has never been a better time, however, to make an appointment with us to talk about your portfolio. If you're in one of those 60-40 models...

Time has passed those by, I think, a long time ago. And if you're afraid of the markets and you don't feel like your person is on top of it, maybe it's you, I don't know. Give us a call at 855-611-BEST. Set up an appointment. We're working this week, except for Friday.

And there's never been a better time to get the four-week free trial and see what I'm buying, including all six portfolios on a daily basis, along with my market commentary. I think I've led you...

pretty well so far through another crisis. What will be the next one? Oh, there will be another one. Choose your gurus wisely. 855-611-BEST, 855-611-BEST, or GundersenCapital.com. Have a great day, everybody. ♪♪♪

This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.