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Ben Levisohn
Ben Levisohn: 今年市场出现了惊人的逆转，标普500指数从因特朗普关税政策而下跌近20%的熊市区域，回升至历史新高。人工智能交易表现强劲，且涨势已扩大到“七巨头”之外，这是一个健康且令人兴奋的发展。股市上涨有三个原因：一是政府在关税问题上表现出灵活性，致力于避免过度的经济损害；二是通胀尚未显著上升；三是人们对人工智能的再次兴奋。尽管“七巨头”内部存在分化，但其他许多股票表现良好，这对市场有利。标普500指数看起来估值过高，但分析师开始转向使用2026年的盈利预期，这使得估值更加合理。如果对增长、通胀和人工智能的假设成立，那么当前的市场估值是合理的。总之，上涨的市场倾向于继续上涨，除非有事件导致其脱轨，但从技术角度来看，目前的涨势应该暂停一下。
Deep Dive
Despite higher tariffs and an expected economic slowdown, the stock market has made an impressive recovery. This is attributed to the administration's flexibility on tariffs, the absence of significant inflation, and the excitement surrounding AI. Although the S&P 500's valuation seems high, using 2026 earnings estimates suggests a more reasonable valuation.
- Stock market recovered despite higher tariffs and expected economic slowdown
- AI trade is strong
- Rally broadened beyond the Magnificent Seven
- Administration's flexibility on tariffs
- Absence of significant inflation
- 2026 earnings estimates suggest more reasonable valuation
Shownotes Transcript