We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!

After Hot Jobs Data, Focus Turns to Earnings, CPIv

2025/1/13

Schwab Market Update Audio

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript

People

Keith Lansford

Topics

Keith Lansford: 我是凯斯·兰斯福德，这是1月13日星期一的市场早报。美国国债收益率是股市的领涨指标，本周重要的通胀数据即将公布，但从周三开始的银行财报可能会分散注意力。周五美国12月就业增长数据导致收益率飙升，股价跌至11月大选以来的最低水平。因为明日早间将公布12月生产者物价指数(PPI)，周三将公布12月消费者物价指数(CPI)，国债可能继续主导市场走势。上周五强劲的美国就业报告显示劳动力市场具有韧性，市场的失望反应再次证实，目前对华尔街来说，好消息仍然是坏消息。但情况并非总是如此。如果出现通胀方面的不利消息，也可能被视为对股市的不利消息。对PPI和CPI的早期预期相对温和，甚至从利率角度来看略微有利，不过投资者应该记住，由于2024年初通胀增长出人意料地强劲，未来几个月与欧元区的比较将会更容易。根据Trading Economics的数据，分析师预计PPI和核心PPI的月度增长率分别为0.3%和0.2%。核心PPI剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格。11月份的数据分别为0.4%和0.2%。分析师预计CPI和核心CPI分别为0.3%和-0.1%。11月份的数据均为0.3%。此类数据可能会略微抑制美国国债收益率在过去一个月飙升后的涨势，但对通胀的担忧可能会持续存在，部分原因与新政府提出的关税和移民政策有关，该政策将于一周后生效。非农就业人数报告显示就业增长25.6万，失业率意外降至4.1%，这也给国债带来了压力。但更深入地分析该报告表明，情况并非完全一边倒，单一数据点无法确定通胀是否反弹。从行业角度来看，能源类股周五上涨，但市场其他板块下跌。利率敏感型板块（包括必需消费品、房地产和金融板块）跌幅最大，而信息技术和其他增长型板块（包括非必需消费品）也因对借贷环境的担忧而遭受重创。莱纳和KB家居等房地产类股因担心高利率可能使房地产市场持续低迷而暴跌。从技术角度来看，标普500指数周五尾盘企稳，收于100日移动均线上方（略低于5820点）。然而，这险胜，该指数盘中一度跌破该水平。本周能否继续守住这条防线，对市场走势至关重要。标普500指数下跌91.21点，跌幅为1.54%，收于5827.04点，本周跌幅为1.94%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌696.75点，跌幅为1.63%，收于41938.45点，本周跌幅为1.86%。纳斯达克综合指数下跌317.25点，跌幅为1.63%，收于19161.63点，本周跌幅为2.34%。 Kevin Gordon: 鉴于强劲的招聘和较低的工资增长，12月份的就业报告中几乎没有通胀迹象。但鉴于收益率飙升，负面市场反应并不令人意外，收益率变化与股价之间的相关性已恢复为负相关。因此，目前市场认为较高的利率与较高的通胀相一致。虽然人们的天性是推断就业数据并预期美联储将长期暂停加息，但在这一点上，投资者不应该对此抱有太大的信心，主要是因为在1月20日之前我们不会得到任何具体的政策信息，届时新政府将上任，并提供有关关税和移民计划的线索。对这些政策方面的担忧也加剧了对通胀的担忧。 Nathan Peterson: 对多头来说，好消息是经济强劲，这可能有助于企业盈利增长，而且美国经济在过去几年中已经证明，它可以在高利率环境下维持运转。这将在本财报季接受考验。由于收益率曲线攀升，银行预计将在周三以相对强劲的态势拉开序幕。这可以提高净利息收入，即银行贷款收入减去支付给客户的利息。然而，不同行业的收入构成有所不同。如果利率长期保持高位，则严重依赖零售和公司贷款的银行可能会遭受损失，因为高利率可能会抑制企业和消费者活动。另一个值得关注的领域是投资银行业务，近期较高的利率可能会限制并购和首次公开募股(IPO)活动。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Treasury yields rise and stocks tumble after the December jobs report?

The December jobs report showed robust job growth of 256,000 and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%, signaling a resilient labor market. However, this good news was interpreted as bad news for Wall Street because it reinforced expectations of higher inflation and potential Fed rate hikes, leading to a spike in Treasury yields and a sell-off in stocks.

What are the expectations for the December Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

Analysts expect the December PPI to show 0.3% monthly growth, with Core PPI (excluding food and energy) at 0.2%. For CPI, expectations are 0.3% monthly growth, while Core CPI is anticipated to show a slight decline of 0.1%. These figures are relatively benign but could influence Treasury yields and inflation concerns.

How did the December jobs report impact expectations for Fed rate cuts?

The strong jobs report reduced the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2024. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a high probability of just one rate cut in 2025, likely in the second half of the year. However, futures trading still suggests a 25% chance of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.

What sectors were most affected by the recent market sell-off?

Rate-sensitive sectors like staples, real estate, and financials were among the hardest hit. Growth sectors, including infotech and consumer discretionary, also suffered due to concerns about higher borrowing costs. Housing stocks, such as Lenar and KB Home, faced significant pressure as higher rates could dampen real estate activity.

How did the S&P 500 perform during the recent market downturn?

The S&P 500 lost 91.21 points, or 1.54%, closing at 5,827.04. It was down 1.94% for the week, narrowly finishing above the 100-day moving average, which is a key technical level for market direction.

What role do bank earnings play in the current market environment?

Bank earnings, starting Wednesday, could provide a distraction from inflation concerns. Higher yields may boost net interest income for banks, benefiting those with strong lending operations. However, banks with heavy exposure to retail and corporate lending might struggle if high rates persist, as borrowing activity could decline.

What are the potential implications of the new U.S. administration's policies on inflation?

The new administration's proposed tariff and immigration policies could exacerbate inflation fears. These policies may lead to higher costs for goods and services, adding to existing concerns about inflation and its impact on the economy and financial markets.

Chapters

This week's key economic indicators, PPI and CPI, will be closely watched. Analyst predictions suggest relatively benign growth, but lingering inflation concerns remain, potentially influenced by the new administration's policies. Treasury yields are expected to react to these figures.

PPI and CPI data releases are crucial this week.
Analyst expectations for PPI and CPI are relatively benign.
Inflation concerns persist, partly due to the new administration's policies.

Shownotes Transcript

Investors don't get a break from yield worries as both CPI and PPI loom this week. But bank earnings could distract. Major indexes hit post-election lows in Friday's sell-off.

Important Disclosures

Information on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.

Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

(0131-0125)

After Hot Jobs Data, Focus Turns to Earnings, CPIv 07:24 Share