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cover of episode After Monday Rally, Market Awaits Powell, CPI

After Monday Rally, Market Awaits Powell, CPI

2025/2/11
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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C
Colin Martin
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K
Keith Lansford
M
Michelle Gibley
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Keith Lansford: 我认为市场目前最关注的是美联储主席鲍威尔在国会的证词以及即将公布的消费者价格指数(CPI)。这些数据将直接影响市场对未来利率走向的预期。此前,美国国债收益率已跌至六周低点,因此,市场参与者都在密切关注鲍威尔的讲话,希望能从中找到关于美联储货币政策的线索。 Colin Martin: 我分析认为,美国国债收益率的风险偏向上行,特别是10年期国债收益率,很有可能重新测试5%的水平。近期公布的就业报告显示劳动力市场依然强劲,经济也以2.5%至3%的速度增长。在这种背景下,我认为美联储短期内不太可能再次降息,这将对短期收益率形成支撑。长期来看,收益率可能会在4.5%至5%的区间内波动,特朗普的政策也可能推高通胀,从而拉高长期收益率。 Michelle Gibley: 我建议投资者在面对关税消息时保持谨慎。虽然贸易紧张局势可能会加剧,但试图根据每一次关税声明进行交易是充满风险的。我认为投资者应该采取更长远的视角,关注贸易政策对经济的长期影响,而不是短期的市场波动。

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This chapter analyzes the upcoming testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and its potential impact on interest rates and inflation, considering recent economic data and market trends. The discussion includes the implications of the January CPI report and the ongoing effects of government policies.
  • Powell's testimony and the January CPI report are key events impacting rates and inflation.
  • Treasury yields fell to six-week lows, and the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.5%.
  • The strong labor market and economic growth are influencing the Fed's decisions on rate cuts.
  • January CPI is expected to show 0.3% headline and core inflation monthly growth.
  • Inflation expectations are rising, despite the New York Fed's report showing a stable headline reading.

Shownotes Transcript

Fed Chairman Powell testifies to Congress today and January CPI is tomorrow. Coca Cola and Lyft report today, and investors also will watch several Treasury auctions this week.

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