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cover of episode After Sell Off, Investors Await Keystone Jobs Data

After Sell Off, Investors Await Keystone Jobs Data

2025/3/7
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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C
Colette O'Claire
N
Nathan Peterson
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Colette O'Claire: 我是Colette O'Claire，以下是施瓦布公司对3月7日星期五市场的初步展望。投资者正在关注2月份的非农就业报告，该报告可能为美联储和投资者提供新的清晰度，因为经济担忧正在出现。周四科技股再次导致市场下跌，市场收于四个月低点，分析师预计今日报告显示新增15万个就业岗位，失业率维持在4%。就业增长大幅低于预期或失业率上升可能会让投资者更加担心经济状况，可能进一步打压股市和国债收益率。本周早些时候疲软的数据有所缓解，ISM服务业数据好于预期，上周初请失业金人数下降，但续请失业金人数却创下近三年新高。挑战者企业裁员数据强化了经济增长担忧，2月份裁员人数激增至17.2万，高于1月份的不到5万，为2009年以来2月份的最高水平。2月份ADP就业人数变化远低于预期，但私人部门数据通常与官方政府数据不相关；亚特兰大联储GDP Now指标仍处于负值。特朗普总统表示，他将为根据美墨加协定贸易的墨西哥进口商品提供为期一个月的关税豁免。在就业数据公布后，投资者可能感觉疲惫不堪，但在听到美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话之前，他们可能无法放松。海外经济前景似乎正在改善，欧洲数据持续超出预期，分析师上调了欧洲公司的盈利预期；中国连续第三年承诺5%的GDP目标。华盛顿成为焦点，立法者努力避免政府可能关门。众议院以微弱优势通过延期法案可能会很棘手。今年晚些时候降息的可能性仍然很大，但美联储未来几次会议可能会按兵不动。根据期货交易，到6月至少降息一次的可能性为85%。 Nathan Peterson: 从技术角度来看，市场有迹象表明正在接近超卖状态。所有主要指数都跌至200日移动平均线，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数攀升至25点以上。它在2025年的低点曾低于15点。此外，标普500相对强弱指数（一种动量指标）昨日跌破34点，而30点在历史上被视为超卖。但市场对关税消息和疲软的经济数据敏感，因此现在判断短期底部可能为时尚早。 Michael Townsend: 众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示，他将推动一项简单的持续决议，即简单地将政府资金延长至2025年9月30日财政年度结束。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The February non-farm payrolls report is highly anticipated, as it may provide the Federal Reserve and investors with clarity amidst growing economic concerns. Despite some positive signs like better-than-expected ISM services data and a drop in initial jobless claims, other indicators point to a potential economic slowdown. Concerns are heightened by recent layoffs and weak private sector employment numbers.
  • February non-farm payrolls report expected to show 159,000 jobs added, unemployment steady at 4%
  • Some economists predict lower job growth, below 100,000
  • ISM services data better than expected, initial jobless claims fell, but continuing claims rose to a near three-year high
  • Challenger job cuts soared to 172,000 in February
  • ADP employment change well below expectations
  • Atlanta Fed's GDP Now meter shows negative growth for the first quarter

Shownotes Transcript

Today's February Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show jobs growth of 159,000 and unemployment steady at 4%. Stocks hit 4-month lows yesterday amid tariff-related volatility.

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