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cover of episode After Wild Week, Stocks Await Powell, Jobs Data

After Wild Week, Stocks Await Powell, Jobs Data

2025/3/3
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Colin Martin
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Keith Lansford
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Keith Lansford: 我是凯斯·兰斯福德,这是施瓦布公司对3月3日星期一市场的初步展望。本周五将公布2月非农就业数据,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将发表经济展望演讲。在此之前,投资者将关注今天的ISM制造业PMI数据,以及本周陆续公布的零售和博通公司的财报。上周五收盘时,市场有所回升,但2月份标普500指数仍下跌约1.4%,上周下跌约1%。2月份和任何政府的首个季度,股市季节性波动都可能很大。 下一次政策触点是预计针对来自墨西哥和加拿大进口商品的关税将于周二生效。届时,中国也将被征收额外10%的关税。市场还在消化美乌关系紧张,这似乎损害了在俄罗斯引发的长期战争中达成矿产协议的机会。周五,白宫举行了乌克兰和美国领导人的会晤,结果不欢而散。 欧洲股市今天可能会受到地缘政治动荡的影响,上周欧洲股市上涨部分原因是人们对取得进展的希望。关税加剧了人们对增长和通胀的担忧,亚特兰大联储第一季度GDP预测模型周五跌至负1.5%,此前为正2.3%。这部分反映了企业试图避免未来关税而提前进口,而进口会损害国内生产总值。然而,周五公布的1月份个人支出报告显示下降0.2%,这令人意外,此前消费者调查显示通胀和就业担忧加剧。大多数华尔街分析师仍预计本季度GDP增长。 虽然调查等软数据和零售额、服务业PMI等硬数据疲软,但盈利数据仍然显示经济在增长,尽管增速正在放缓,这使得投资者难以判断应该关注什么。此外,市场可能接近超卖区域,相对强弱指标(RSI)在周五晚些时候跌至33。传统上,30或以下的读数表明,有时会导致超卖反弹的情况,但这并不能保证。从技术上讲,标普500指数在上周下跌期间在图表上受到损害,因为它跌破了50日和100日移动平均线,然后在周五晚些时候回升,收于略高于100日的5952点。 美国国债收益率上周继续下降,防御性板块跑赢增长型板块。市场似乎正在经历风险资产的重新定价,这是由增长担忧驱动的,而围绕贸易和财政政策的不确定性加剧了不安情绪。 1月份的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数符合预期,月度名义和核心PCE均为0.3%。这两个类别的年度PCE分别为2.5%和2.6%,也符合预期,低于12月份的2.6%和2.8%。核心PCE不包括食品和能源。对于名义PCE而言,这是四个月以来的首次放缓。好消息是,考虑到通胀预期最近一直在上升,通胀没有意外地上涨,施瓦布金融研究中心固定收益策略主管科林·马丁说。但核心PCE月度增长0.3%是自去年3月以来的最高读数,因此通胀似乎仍然有些顽固。 从行业来看,科技板块周五强劲反弹,上涨1%,但在英伟达和微软疲软的背景下,过去五个交易日仍下跌超过5%。金融板块周五领涨,但在普遍上涨的背景下,所有板块均上涨,这可能反映出人们认为股价下跌过快过猛,此前股价从前一周的纪录高点下跌了4%。然而,波动性仍然很高,芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)本周收于20点以上,表明市场存在不确定性。通常情况下,当股市和VIX同时上涨时,其中一个往往会让步,通常是很快。这就是为什么本周监控VIX很重要。 未来几天,零售业财报将主导市场,包括好市多、百思买、Foot Locker和塔吉特。但科技行业也在其中,博通、CrowdStrike和Marvel将发布财报。绝大多数标普500公司已经公布了财报,75%的公司超过了分析师的盈利预期,而63%的公司超过了SED的营收预期。 展望周五的非农就业数据,1月份略低的14.3万新增就业岗位可能受到野火和暴风雪的影响,因此看看2月份是否反弹,或者在政策不确定性下公司是否减少招聘,将是一件很有趣的事情。截至上周五晚些时候,根据Trading Economics的数据,分析师预计非农就业报告将显示新增就业岗位为15万。2月份比通常月份短,这可能会影响数据。据Briefing.com的数据,周一的2月份ISM制造业PMI数据预计将保持在50以上的正区域,为50.7。 截至上周五晚些时候,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具显示,3月份联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议暂停加息的概率接近94%,但到6月份降息的概率超过80%,高于一周前的60%。 Colin Martin: 好消息是,考虑到通胀预期最近一直在上升,通胀没有意外地上涨。但核心PCE月度增长0.3%是自去年3月以来的最高读数,因此通胀似乎仍然有些顽固。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Last week's market saw a mixed performance, with initial losses followed by a late comeback. Mega-cap weakness and geopolitical concerns played a role, alongside tariff impacts and economic data releases. The market's overall trend shows short-to-intermediate term weakness but maintains a long-term uptrend.
  • S&P 500 fell around 1.4% in February and 1% last week
  • Six of the 11 sectors and the Dow Jones gained last week
  • Investors shifted away from tech and mega-caps
  • Tariffs targeting imports from Mexico, Canada, and China took effect
  • Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine impacted market sentiment
  • Atlanta Fed's first-quarter GDP now model dropped into negative territory
  • Market arguably near oversold territory, with RSI dropping to 33
  • S&P 500 fell below 50-day and 100-day moving averages
  • Defensive sectors outpaced growth
  • Markets appear to be going through a repricing of risk assets

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Monday, March 3rd. This week builds to a busy Friday featuring February non-farm payrolls and an economic outlook speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Before that, investors await today's ISM manufacturing PMI, followed by a host of retail and Broadcom earnings as the week rolls on. Last Friday wrapped up a losing week and month, with the S&P 500 index falling around 1.4% in February and 1% last week alone amid mega-cap weakness.

A spirited comeback in the final half-hour Friday repaired some of the damage. Six of the 11 sectors and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained last week, led by value and defensive names as investors shifted away from tech and mega-caps. February can be seasonally volatile for stocks, and historically the same is true for the first quarter of any administration.

The next policy touchpoint is when expected tariffs targeting imports from Mexico and Canada take effect Tuesday. China will be charged an additional 10% tariff then as well. The market is also digesting a rift between the U.S. and Ukraine that appeared to hurt chances of a mineral agreement amid the long war triggered by Russia. A White House meeting Friday between Ukraine and U.S. leaders ended with rancor.

European stocks might feel heat from that geopolitical shakiness today after gaining ground last week partly on hopes for progress. Tariffs raised growth and inflation concerns, and the Atlanta Fed's first-quarter GDP now model dropped into negative territory Friday at negative 1.5% from the previous positive 2.3%.

That partially reflects pulling forward of imports as companies tried to avoid future tariffs and imports can hurt gross domestic product. However, Friday's personal spending report showing a 0.2% decline for January was a surprise and followed recent consumer surveys pointing to heightened inflation and job worries. Most Wall Street analysts continue to project GDP growth this quarter.

While there's been weakness in soft data like surveys and hard data like retail sales and services PMI, earnings strength still shows an economy moving along, albeit slowing down, making it difficult for investors to parse what to follow. Also, the market is arguably near oversold territory, with a relative strength index, or RSI, dropping to 33 by late Friday.

Traditionally, a reading of 30 or below signals conditions that may sometimes lead to an oversold bounce, though there's no guarantee. Technically, the S&P 500 index saw damage on the charts during its decline last week as it fell below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages before clawing back late Friday to close just above the 100-day of 5,952.

Breth declined, too, with 47% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages as of late Friday, down from about 55% earlier last week. The market display is short to intermediate-term weakness, but the long-term uptrend on the charts remains intact.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries continued to drop last week, and defensive sectors outpaced growth. Markets appear to be going through a repricing of risk assets, which is driven by growth concerns, with uncertainty around trade and fiscal policy adding to uneasiness.

January's Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, price index met expectations at 0.3% monthly for both Headline and Core. Annual PCE of 2.5% and 2.6% for the two categories were also as expected, and down from 2.6% and 2.8% in December. Core excludes food and energy. For Headline PCE, it was the first slowdown in four months.

The good news was that inflation didn't surprise to the upside, considering how inflation expectations have been rising lately, said Colin Martin, director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. But the 0.3% monthly increase in core PCE was the highest reading since last March, so inflation still appears to be a bit sticky.

Sector-wise Friday, tech made a nice comeback and rose 1%, but was still down more than 5% over the previous five sessions amid weakness from Nvidia and Microsoft. Financials led Friday, but all sectors gained amid widespread strength that might have reflected ideas the stocks had come down too far too fast after a 4% drop from the prior week's record highs.

However, volatility remains elevated with the SIBO Volatility Index, or VIX, finishing the week just above 20, a sign of uncertainty. Typically, when both stocks and the VIX rise, one tends to give way, usually sooner rather than later. That's why the VIX is important to monitor this week.

Retail earnings dominate coming days with Costco, Best Buy, Foot Locker, and Target. But tech is in the mix, says Broadcom, CrowdStrike, and Marvel report. The vast majority of S&P 500 companies are done reporting, and 75% have topped analysts' earnings estimates, while 63% beat on revenue facts at SED.

Looking ahead to Friday's non-farm payrolls, January's slightly light jobs growth of 143,000 might have been affected by wildfires and snowstorms, so it will be interesting to see if February bounced back or if companies refrained from hiring amid policy uncertainty.

As of late last Friday, analysts expected the non-farm payrolls report to show job growth of 150,000, according to Trading Economics. February is a shorter month than usual, which might affect the data. Monday's February ISM manufacturing PMI data is seen remaining in positive territory above 50 at 50.7, according to Briefing.com.

As of late Friday, the CME FedWatch tool put rate pause odds near 94% for the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but chances of a rate cut by the June meeting topped 80%, up from 60% a week earlier.

The S&P 500 index added 92.93 points Friday, or 1.59%, to 5,954.50, finishing the week down 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 601.41 points, or 1.39%, to 43,840.91, up 0.95% for the week.

And the Nasdaq Composite added 302.86 points, or 1.63%, to 18,847.28, falling 3.47% for the week. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast.

To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow. For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.