Alphabet Results, Jobless Claims Next After Rally
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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, April 24th. Alphabet's earnings kick off Magnificent 7 reporting later today, and another Treasury auction is in the works, but eyes might be on employment data early.

Initial jobless claims before the open could get a closer look than usual amid concerns of possible economic softness amid trade uncertainty. Recent readings have been light, below 230,000. The briefing.com consensus is 220,000, but anything more than 230,000 could cause concern.

The economy's recent poor showing popped up in several places yesterday, despite a surge in stocks linked to President Trump's recent softer tone on tariffs and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Initially, bonds rallied yesterday along with stocks, but as the day wore on, yields reversed higher in a sharp turnaround that hinted Treasury market volatility remains elevated.

The five-year note auction didn't see as much demand as anticipated, dampening the rally in treasuries, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab. Yields moved the opposite direction of treasuries. That was the second daily auction in a row to disappoint, suggesting investors want higher yields if they're buying U.S. debt. The hammer pounds again today as the treasury auctions off a batch of seven-year notes.

Demand weakness for treasuries can be a drag on stocks, forcing consumer and business borrowing costs higher. Lack of demand for treasuries could reflect worries about tariff-driven inflation as well as concerns about heavy U.S. debt supplies hitting the market as the government funds growing budget deficits. Also, the trade war might curb overseas enthusiasm for U.S. assets.

Yesterday's April S&P Global PMI data failed to impress, especially on the services side. Separately, March new home sales of 724,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis looked stronger than the 684,000 analysts had expected, but weekly mortgage applications fell nearly 13%, the largest weekly decline since last October.

The economic data continued to signal further weakness, Jones said. PMIs are declining, business new orders and activity are falling, and consumer sentiment remains negative. In the long run, we expect the economy to slow further. The Fed is likely to cut rates one or two times this year, especially if the unemployment rate rises.

Normally, soft U.S. data might draw more interest in Treasuries, but the Federal Reserve's apparent hesitation to cut rates anytime soon may also be slowing demand. Chances of a May rate cut fell to 6% late Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool, as investors appear convinced recent cautious Fed talk means little chance of a trim. June rate cut odds fell to just above 60% after being well above 70% earlier this month.

Though today's initial claims data provide a snapshot on employment, next week's April nonfarm payrolls report approaches and delivers a broader view. It's possible that report could reflect recent job cuts from the federal government and from companies uncertain about the outlook.

Alphabet reports after the close and focus is likely to turn towards both its cloud business and how it resolves its case with the Justice Department as the government looks to break up parts of the company. Digital ad spending is key too, as some analysts think any slowdown in the economy might hit that part of the business.

Before Alphabet, earnings action this morning includes a mix of firms from different industries like Procter & Gamble, Merck, PepsiCo, and American Airlines. Three of those four firms are mostly consumer-oriented, giving possible insight into demand for staple products and travel in the weeks leading up to April's turbulent markets.

Staples companies have generally seen their stocks rise amid tariff threats, but big health care firms like Merck could be threatened by impositions on their ability to manufacture abroad. Outlooks from all four of these companies will be closely scrutinized.

The Fed's Beige Book on Economic Conditions Around the Country Wednesday showed little change in economic activity, but plenty of concern about trade policy. Tariff mentions came up 107 times in the Fed's report, more than double the number seen in the prior one Bloomberg noted. A chart shared by Bloomberg shows there were nearly no mentions of tariffs in the Beige Book between March of 2020 and July of 2024.

The report also showed prices increasing, a reflection of uncertain trade policy. IBM and Texas Instruments shared results yesterday afternoon, accelerating tech earnings season. Intel is at the starting gate following today's close after beating analysts' expectations last time it reported. Bloomberg reported yesterday that Intel plans to announce a 20% headcount reduction. The company also introduced a new automobile chip yesterday.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note finished Wednesday unchanged at 4.39% after earlier falling to 4.25% on weak data and Trump's comment that he wouldn't fire Powell. Yields roared back as confusion continued on the tariff front.

Stocks stormed out of the gate Wednesday, but spent much of the session rolling back initial gains before finishing moderately higher. Technology shares led the way on hopes for trade progress, lifting the Nasdaq composite more than 2%. Defensive parts of the market like real estate, utilities, and consumer staples gave back some recent gains.

Tech stocks including Supermicrocomputer, Palantir, Intel, and Broadcom enjoyed major gains yesterday. The PHLX Semiconductor Index, or SOX, bounced as chips remain highly sensitive to trade relations with China. Tesla also gained yesterday despite a disappointing earnings report. This could reflect Tesla sticking to its timeline for a lower cost vehicle with production starting this quarter, Barron's reported.

Hopes for CEO Elon Musk to spend less time in Washington, D.C. also lifted the stock. Yesterday's tariff news ended up getting a mixed view from traders. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson followed up Trump's comments about U.S. tariffs against Chinese imports coming down substantially by saying a full rebalancing of trade might take two to three years, Bloomberg reported.

A possible cut in tariffs to 50% to 65% on China was floated yesterday. That level, while far below the current 145%, will still likely have large effects on trade and prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 419.59 points or 1.07% to 39,606.57. The S&P 500 Index gained 88.10 points or 1.67% to 5,375.86. And the NASDAQ Composite rose 407.63 points or 2.50% to 16,708.05.

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