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cover of episode Awaiting PPI, Tech Earnings After Yields Spike

Awaiting PPI, Tech Earnings After Yields Spike

2025/2/13
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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J
Jeffrey Kleintop
K
Kathy Jones
K
Keith Lansford
Topics
Keith Lansford: 昨天公布的CPI数据超出了预期,导致股市下跌,收益率上升。今天将关注1月份的PPI数据,以评估通胀情况。市场预计1月份的PPI将显示出整体增长0.2%,核心增长0.3%,核心数据剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格。美国国债收益率达到近一个月来的最高水平,10年期国债收益率高于4.64%,远高于上周的盘中低点。CPI数据降低了美联储降息的可能性,目前CME FedWatch工具显示3月份降息的概率接近于零。 Kathy Jones: CPI报告几乎排除了美联储近期降息的希望。尽管1月份的数据通常包含季节性因素,会使报告结果偏高,但即使考虑到这一点,该报告仍然令人失望。价格上涨是广泛的,各个类别都有所上涨,其中服务业的涨幅最大。运输服务和住房是主要贡献者。如果通胀数据没有显著改善,今年可能不会降息。现在讨论这个问题还为时过早。 Jerome Powell: 我对一两个好的或坏的通胀数据并不感到兴奋。我们需要看到在降低通胀方面取得更多进展,才会考虑进一步降息。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the January Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, examining their impact on market yields and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts. The unexpectedly high CPI figures have diminished the likelihood of an immediate rate cut, prompting a discussion on the Fed's future monetary policy.
  • January PPI is expected to show 0.2% headline and 0.3% core monthly growth.
  • CPI climbed 0.5% monthly in January, exceeding expectations.
  • The unexpected CPI data reduced the probability of a Fed rate cut in March.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for sustained progress in slowing inflation before considering further rate cuts.

Shownotes Transcript

January Producer Price Index data this morning is a key piece of the puzzle after yields spiked yesterday following a hot CPI report. Several tech firms report after the close.

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