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cover of episode Central Bank Cuts Don’t Signal Recession

Central Bank Cuts Don’t Signal Recession

2025/3/24
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Kathy Jones: 我认为债券市场目前正受到政府政策冲突影响而动荡不安。一些政策,例如关税和移民限制,预计会减缓经济增长;而减税和放松管制则可能促进增长。同样,一些政策可能会加剧通货膨胀压力,而经济增长放缓则可能减轻这种压力。这使得市场难以判断未来的走向,从而导致债券市场波动。 政府政策的不确定性给市场带来了很大的挑战。投资者难以预测未来经济的走向,从而导致投资决策变得更加谨慎。这种谨慎的态度也反映在债券市场上,导致市场波动加剧。 总的来说,当前的经济形势复杂且充满挑战。政府需要在促进经济增长和控制通货膨胀之间取得平衡,这需要审慎的政策制定和有效的执行。 Cooper Howard: 我认为最近的降息更多地反映了疫情后的经济正常化,而不是经济增长放缓的信号。虽然全球经济增长并不强劲,但降息并不一定意味着经济衰退即将到来。 当然,全球经济增长面临一些挑战,其中最主要的是贸易战。贸易战加剧了全球经济的不确定性,并对全球经济增长构成威胁。然而,我们也看到一些积极的因素,例如一些国家的经济复苏迹象。 因此,我认为投资者不应过度解读降息的信号。虽然全球经济增长面临挑战,但这并不一定意味着经济衰退即将到来。投资者应该关注更广泛的经济指标,并根据自身的风险承受能力做出投资决策。

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The trend for central banks is to cut rates but that doesn’t mean a recession is near. But it also doesn’t mean GDP is growing very much.

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