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cover of episode Central Bank Cuts Don’t Signal Recession

Central Bank Cuts Don’t Signal Recession

2025/3/24
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Kathy Jones: 我认为债券市场目前正受到政府政策冲突影响而动荡不安。一些政策,例如关税和移民限制,预计会减缓经济增长;而减税和放松管制则可能促进增长。同样,一些政策可能会加剧通货膨胀压力,而经济增长放缓则可能减轻这种压力。这使得市场难以判断未来的走向,从而导致债券市场波动。 政府政策的不确定性给市场带来了很大的挑战。投资者难以预测未来经济的走向,从而导致投资决策变得更加谨慎。这种谨慎的态度也反映在债券市场上,导致市场波动加剧。 总的来说,当前的经济形势复杂且充满挑战。政府需要在促进经济增长和控制通货膨胀之间取得平衡,这需要审慎的政策制定和有效的执行。 Cooper Howard: 我认为最近的降息更多地反映了疫情后的经济正常化,而不是经济增长放缓的信号。虽然全球经济增长并不强劲,但降息并不一定意味着经济衰退即将到来。 当然,全球经济增长面临一些挑战,其中最主要的是贸易战。贸易战加剧了全球经济的不确定性,并对全球经济增长构成威胁。然而,我们也看到一些积极的因素,例如一些国家的经济复苏迹象。 因此,我认为投资者不应过度解读降息的信号。虽然全球经济增长面临挑战,但这并不一定意味着经济衰退即将到来。投资者应该关注更广泛的经济指标,并根据自身的风险承受能力做出投资决策。

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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Monday, March 24th. The March S&P Global PMI is expected to be released Monday morning. The last report came in at 51.6, which was higher than the preliminary estimate of 50.4%.

A reading above 50 denotes economic expansion. In January, the PMI was 52.7, which makes the expansion's pace the slowest since April of 2024. Last week, some investors took a run at the bond market, driving yields lower just to see them bounce back.

Overall, the bond market is still being buffeted by the conflicting policy consequences of the administration, according to Kathy Jones, Managing Director and Chief Fixed Income Strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Some of the proposed policies are expected to slow growth, such as tariffs and limits on immigration, while tax cuts and deregulation could boost growth. Similarly, some policies are likely to raise inflation pressures, while slower growth could reduce them.

With the Fed on hold amid the policy uncertainty, the market is stuck in a range. The Fed was just one of the five central banks that met last week. However, only the Swiss National Bank cut their key rate, while the Bank of Japan was the only one to raise. However, the trend has been to cut. Including last week, the Swiss National Bank has cut its key rate five times over the last year. Of the largest developed countries, the Bank of Canada has cut seven times.

The European Central Bank has cut six times since June. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut four times. The Fed, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia have all had at least one rate cut. Some may see cutting rates as a negative economic sign. The Cooper Howard, director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, feels that the recent rate cuts are a sign of post-pandemic normalization more than slowing economic growth.

He also echoed Kathy Jones that the broader risk to global economic growth lies with the trade war. However, that's not to say that global economic growth has been good. The fourth quarter 2024 final gross domestic product comes out on Thursday, but the previous print was 2.3%, which is the highest in the world. The latest updates from China, Japan, and the United Kingdom are 1.6%, 0.6%, and 0.1%, respectively.

The euro area is at 0%, including Germany at negative 0.2%. One commonly used risk-on, risk-off indicator is the ICE B of A U.S. High Yield Index. It calculates the spread between risk-free treasury yields and the riskier below investment-grade bond yields. This year, the index has climbed from 2.6 to as high as 3.4, suggesting that investors are moving out of the risk-on mode to risk-off mode.

But if you zoom out to the last 10 years, the index has been as high as 10 in 2020. While it's a trend to keep an eye on, the index isn't flashing any warning lights yet.

The S&P 500 index rose 4.67 points Friday, or 0.08%, to 5,667.56, finishing the week 0.51% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 32.03 points, or 0.08%, to 41,985.35, ending the week 1.2% higher.

Finally, the Nasdaq Composite rose 92.43 points or 0.52% to 17,784.05, which was a 0.17% gain for the week. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast.

To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow. For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.