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cover of episode Confidence Wanes Among Consumers and Services

Confidence Wanes Among Consumers and Services

2025/3/26
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Keith Lansford
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Nathan Peterson
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Keith Lansford: 我是凯斯·兰斯福德,这是3月26日星期三的市场早报。消费者信心指数下降到92.9,为12年来的低点,低于预期的96.0。零售业也表现疲软,标普零售精选指数下跌0.97%。房地产市场也显示出疲软迹象,尽管建筑许可报告好于预期,但新屋销售数据低于预期,东北部新屋销售下降21.4%。道琼斯工业平均指数可能出现双顶反转形态,这可能导致市场下跌。然而,标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均出现上涨。 Nathan Peterson: 市场似乎对软数据相对宽容,除非这些数据也体现在硬数据中。关税不确定性可能解释了上个月企业和消费者信心低迷的原因。费城联储服务业调查显示服务业公司对未来六个月的展望暴跌,创下新的周期低点,接近新冠疫情期间的水平。软数据与硬数据出现分歧,但悲观情绪仍然令人担忧。 Nathan Peterson: 根据我的分析,市场目前对负面经济数据反应相对温和,这主要是因为这些数据目前还仅体现在“软数据”指标上,尚未反映在更可靠的“硬数据”中。然而,这种谨慎乐观的态度可能不会持续太久,如果“软数据”的负面趋势最终也体现在“硬数据”中,市场情绪可能会迅速转向悲观。此外,持续存在的关税不确定性也对消费者和企业信心造成了负面影响,加剧了市场的不确定性。费城联储服务业调查显示出令人担忧的趋势,服务业公司对未来六个月的展望大幅下滑,这预示着经济可能面临进一步的挑战。虽然软数据和硬数据之间存在差异,但这并不意味着我们可以忽视软数据所传递出的负面信号。持续的悲观情绪依然值得关注,并可能预示着未来经济形势的严峻挑战。

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Consumer confidence falls along with services outlook, but a divergence between soft data and hard data may assuage fears. Mixed real estate data isn’t likely to help doubters.

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