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cover of episode CPI Countdown: Market on Edge Ahead of Price Data

CPI Countdown: Market on Edge Ahead of Price Data

2024/12/11
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C
Colette O'Claire
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Colin Martin
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Colette O'Claire: 11月CPI数据即将公布，市场对此感到不安。地缘政治担忧和对美国通胀进展的担忧导致本周市场波动加剧。分析师预计月度和核心CPI（不包括食品和能源）均增长0.3%，同比核心CPI预计为3.3%，与10月份的同比涨幅相同。这凸显了美联储将通胀率从2022年中期9%的峰值降至2%年度目标的挑战。第三季度单位劳动力成本最终数据增长0.8%，低于预期近2%，也低于初步数据1.9%，但这似乎对昨日上涨的国债收益率影响不大。明天将公布另一个对利率敏感的报告——11月份生产者物价指数（PPI），这是美联储会议前最后一个主要数据点。主要股指周二连续第二天收跌；Alphabet股价上涨5%，但纳斯达克综合指数在早盘反弹后涨势放缓；甲骨文公司因业绩令人失望而暴跌；费城半导体指数继续波动，下跌近3%；上周科技股的反弹显示出消退的迹象。尽管本周开局疲软，标普500指数仍远高于其20日移动平均线5995点，6000点可能是支撑位。周二标普500指数下跌17.94点，跌幅为0.3%，收于6034.91点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌154.1点，跌幅为0.3%，收于44247.83点，连续四个交易日下跌；纳斯达克综合指数下跌49.45点，跌幅为0.2%，收于19067点。 Colin Martin: 即使CPI数据超预期，美联储也可能在下周的会议上降息，除非出现非常大的意外上行惊喜。

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Today's CPI data looms, and hot results could lower odds of rate cuts in early 2025. Still, it would take a very bad report to squash widespread hopes of a cut next week.

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