Fed Minutes Loom After Tuesday's Yield Spike
Schwab Market Update Audio
Deep Dive
Why did Treasury yields spike on Tuesday, and what impact did it have on the stock market?
Treasury yields spiked due to stronger-than-expected U.S. services and job openings data, which reduced hopes for future rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury note yield reached a seven-month intraday high of just under 4.7%, and the 30-year Treasury bond approached 5%. This rise in yields, driven by inflation fears and optimism about growth, created a challenging environment for stocks, causing the S&P 500 to fall 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop 0.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite to plunge 1.89%.
What insights might the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes provide?
The December FOMC minutes, released at 2 p.m. Eastern time, could reveal the specific hesitations behind the dissent during the rate cut decision and highlight any hawkish factors influencing the debate. Policymakers' focus on certain data or economic developments, such as labor market conditions, may offer clues about future Fed strategy. The minutes are particularly significant due to the divergence of views among committee members during the meeting.
What were the key takeaways from the November JOLTS report and December ISM Services PMI?
The November JOLTS report showed job openings at a six-month high of 8.098 million, up by 259,000 from October and above Wall Street's consensus of 7.7 million. The December ISM Services PMI headline of 54.1 exceeded analysts' expectations of 53, indicating continued expansion in the services sector. However, the prices component of 64.4, up from 58.2 in November, raised inflation concerns and contributed to the spike in Treasury yields.
How did rising yields affect specific stock market sectors on Tuesday?
Rising yields negatively impacted sectors like communication services, infotech, and consumer discretionary, which fell 1% or more. Energy and health care sectors, traditionally defensive, managed to stay positive. Infotech, in particular, dropped over 2% due to inflation fears and news of the U.S. adding two Chinese tech companies to its military cooperation list. Dividend-focused sectors like utilities and staples also struggled as yields climbed.
What are the expectations for the upcoming December nonfarm payrolls report?
The December nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show jobs growth of around 154,000, with unemployment at 4.3%. This would be a moderate reading historically but below the 200,000 to 300,000 range seen post-pandemic. The report may contrast with the strong JOLTS and initial jobless claims data, which indicate a relatively healthy job market despite continuing claims remaining near three-year highs.
What technical levels are being watched for the S&P 500 after its recent decline?
The S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average near 5,950, with technical support levels being monitored at 5,870 and the 100-day moving average near 5,813. The index closed at 5,909.03, down 1.1%, but found buyers near the 5,900 level in the final half-hour of trading, suggesting potential support at that level.
- Stronger-than-expected U.S. services and job openings data reduced rate cut hopes
- Seven-month highs in long-term Treasury yields
- FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points with one dissent and considerable debate
- CME FedWatch tool shows a 95% chance of a rate pause this month, with only one to two more cuts likely this year
Shownotes Transcript
欢迎收听Schwab市场更新播客，我们将为您回顾近期新闻，并展望未来的交易日。我是Keith Lansford，以下是Schwab对1月8日星期三市场的初步展望。
首先，一条重要提示。明天，市场将因纪念吉米·卡特总统而闭市一天。明天，我们将播放我们姊妹播客《投资之道》的特别节目，该节目最初于上个月播出。Schwab市场更新播客将于1月10日星期五恢复播出。
在昨日两份强劲的经济报告再次引发通胀担忧并导致股市暴跌后，投资者将一窥上一次美联储会议的幕后情况。在长期国债收益率达到七个月高点后，股市在周三疲软，这是对强于预期的美国服务业和职位空缺数据做出的反应，这些数据降低了降息的预期。
12月联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要将于美国东部时间下午2点公布。虽然市场有时会对美联储会议纪要集体漠不关心，但鉴于上月会议上出现的观点分歧，今天可能是个例外。FOMC当时将利率下调了25个基点，但有一票反对，显然幕后存在相当多的争论。
今天的会议纪要可能会指出导致反对意见的具体犹豫因素以及任何其他导致略显鹰派氛围的因素。决策者在做出决定之前关注哪些数据或经济发展情况，可以使投资者了解关注哪些线索来判断美联储的策略。
劳动力市场，包括本周五的非农就业报告，是一个显而易见的地方。如果昨天的职位空缺报告有任何线索的话，就业市场并没有像美联储的一些人预期的那样疲软。11月份的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）达到六个月高点809.8万，比10月份增加了25.9万，高于华尔街770万的共识预期。
JOLTS数据与12月ISM服务业PMI同时公布。其54.1的标题超过分析师53的共识预期，并延续了高于50水平的标题，这表示面向服务的美国企业的扩张。
但这并不是引起关注的数字。价格成分为64.4，较11月份的58.2大幅跃升，加上JOLTS的意外增长，帮助推动基准10年期国债收益率达到七个月以来的盘中新高，略低于4.7%。与此同时，30年期国债收益率正在逼近5%。
收益率的持续上涨，10年期国债收益率在一个多月内上涨了50多个基点，为股市创造了一个混乱的局面。“在ISM服务业数据显示支付价格上涨后，市场下跌，”Schwab首席投资策略师Lizanne Saunders表示。“10年期国债收益率上涨并未帮助股市。”
芝商所美联储观察工具目前显示，美联储在本月会议上暂停加息的可能性为95%。今年可能只会再降息一到两次。虽然收益率的部分上涨似乎反映了对增长的乐观情绪，但通胀担忧并未消失。
新政府可能对关税和移民政策的改变，导致国债市场出现较高的期限溢价，这意味着在通胀担忧的情况下，投资者要求更高的长期债务收益率。周二390亿美元的10年期国债拍卖需求疲软，这是投资者可能希望获得更高收益以换取长期投资的另一个迹象。当通胀担忧加剧时，这种情况往往会发生。
明天市场休市，以纪念吉米·卡特总统，但政府仍预计当天上午将公布初步和持续的每周失业救济金申请数据。根据Briefing.com的数据，分析师预计初步申请人数为21.8万，这是一个相对温和的数字。休市一天后，预计周五的12月非农就业报告将显示就业增长约为15.4万，失业率为4.3%。
11月份的数据分别为22.7万和4.2%。如果报告符合预期，这可能与JOLTS和初步失业救济金申请数据相悖。这些数据总体上看起来不错，尽管持续申请人数仍接近三年高点。共识读数在历史上是适中的，但远低于疫情后几年投资者习惯的20万到30万。
从行业角度来看，随着收益率上升，去年的一些领头羊在周二表现最差。通信服务、信息技术和非必需消费品行业均下跌1%或以上。只有能源和传统防御性医疗保健行业设法保持上涨。目前，紧张的石油供应和预期中更高的中国需求支撑着能源市场，但长期供应预期似乎看跌。
信息技术行业昨日大幅下跌，在通胀担忧和美国将两家中国科技公司列入与中国军方合作的实体名单的消息影响下，下跌超过2%。科技行业通常被认为特别容易受到与中国的贸易紧张局势的影响。收益率上升也抑制了与股息相关的行业，包括公用事业和必需消费品行业。
从技术角度来看，标普500指数跌破了其50日移动均线，接近5950点。在5870点附近似乎存在一个技术支撑位，低于该支撑位的是100日移动均线，该均线在去年几次抛售中起到支撑作用。它现在接近5813点。
标普500指数暴跌66.35点，跌幅为1.1%，收于5909.03点。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌178.20点，跌幅为0.42%，收于42528.36点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌375.30点，跌幅为1.89%，收于19489.68点。
主要指数收盘略高于盘中低点，标普500指数在最后半小时似乎在5900点附近找到了买家。这是Schwab市场更新播客。
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