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cover of episode Following Rally, Wall Street Awaits BoJ, Claims

Following Rally, Wall Street Awaits BoJ, Claims

2025/1/23
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Keith Lansford
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Nathan Peterson
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Keith Lansford: 我是凯斯·兰斯福德,这是1月23日周四的市场早间简报。主要股指在昨日收盘略低于历史高点后,本周四大幅上涨,但市场缺乏新的催化剂。强劲的财报和普遍的经济乐观情绪可能会弥补数据不足,投资者可能会关注国债收益率,因为它们在周三略有反弹。收益率上涨部分原因是由于新的关税担忧,因为特朗普总统威胁称最早将于2月1日对来自中国的进口商品征收10%的关税。在担心关税可能引发通货膨胀的情况下,市场对反关税新闻仍然非常敏感。本周的一个特点是股市波动性下降,衡量标准是芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX),该指数昨日一度跌破15点。但债市波动性仍然较高,从长期来看可能会影响VIX。VIX指数本周有所下降,原因是特朗普第一天宣布的消息不那么强硬,以及收益率波动性减弱。如果未来几周10年期国债收益率回升至4.8%附近,或者波动性回升,VIX很可能会上涨。VIX指数上升通常预示着股市波动加剧,而VIX指数下降有时可能是反向信号。美联储目前正处于缄默期,在等待下周三的利率决议,因此美联储发言人本周不会加剧波动。但另一个央行会议,即日本央行的会议,今天开始,利率决议将于周五公布。分析师预计利率会上涨,这可能会对美国股票和国债产生影响。不过,日本央行过去曾出人意料地违背预期。日本央行上次在7月份加息,导致所谓的日元套利交易逆转,导致抛售使用日本低利率购买的高增长美国股票。不过,过去并非先例。展望美联储会议,根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具,暂停加息的可能性接近100%。本季度降息的可能性在周三晚些时候降至25%以下。周三下午的财报发布相对较少,但今天晚些时候会有几家大型运输公司发布财报,包括美国航空、联合太平洋和CSX。航空业的财报以达美航空和联合航空的强劲开局,但航运指标在该行业早期业绩公布后受到密切关注。会议委员会周三公布的12月领先指标比一个月前下降了0.1%,低于分析师预期的持平读数。在11月份意外修正为增长0.4%之前,该指标连续数月为负。对未来商业环境的低消费者信心、相对疲软的制造业订单、建筑许可证下降以及初请失业金人数增加均构成拖累。然而,考虑到最近初请失业金人数降至长期低点,这份报告在某些方面有点过时。最新的每周初请失业金人数数据将于今天美国东部时间上午8点30分公布,分析师预计为21.9万人,根据Briefing.com的数据,这接近近期区间的中间值。昨日标普500指数创下6100点以上的新盘中高点,然后收于12月初创下的约6090点历史收盘高点略下方。在对新政府可能刺激经济增长以及第四季度财报普遍令人印象深刻的希望推动下,积极情绪持续。但报道季节还处于早期阶段。此外,昨天的涨势主要由科技板块推动,该板块上涨约2.5%。只有另一个板块,即通信服务板块上涨,其他九个标普板块下跌。这意味着缺乏平衡和广度,尽管这只是一天的交易。标普500指数周三上涨37.13点,涨幅为0.61%,收于6086.37点。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨130.92点,涨幅为0.3%,收于44156.73点;纳斯达克综合指数上涨252.56点,涨幅为1.28%,收于20009.34点。基准10年期国债收益率上涨3个基点,至4.60%。 Nathan Peterson: 本周VIX指数下降的原因是特朗普第一天宣布的消息不那么强硬以及收益率波动性减弱。如果未来几周10年期国债收益率回升至4.8%附近,或者波动性回升,VIX很可能会上涨。

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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, January 23rd. After closing just shy of an all-time peak yesterday, major indexes start Thursday up sharply this week, but searching for new catalysts amid sparse data.

A full earnings schedule could make up for the slack, and investors likely have an eye on Treasury yields after they bounced back slightly on Wednesday. Yields climbed in part on renewed tariff fears as President Trump threatened a 10% tariff on imports from China as soon as February 1st. The market remains very sensitive to anti-tariff news amid worries they could spark inflation.

One feature this week has been lower stock market volatility as measured by the SIBO Volatility Index, or VIX, which briefly fell below 15 yesterday. Bond market volatility remains elevated, which in the longer run might affect VIX.

Some air came out of the VIX this week due to Trump's less aggressive day one announcements and less yield volatility, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. If yields on the 10-year move back up towards 4.8% in the coming weeks or the velocity picks back up, the VIX is likely going higher.

When the VIX rises, it often points toward sharper swings in the stock market. A low VIX, on the other hand, can sometimes be a contrarian signal that volatility may turn higher. Volatility fell to its lowest levels since late December yesterday.

The Federal Reserve is now in its quiet period ahead of next Wednesday's decision on interest rates, so Fed speakers won't add to volatility this week. But another central bank meeting, the Bank of Japan's, starts today, and a rate decision is due Friday. Analysts expect an increase, which could have ramifications for U.S. stocks and treasuries. Still, the Bank of Japan has surprised markets in the past by going against expectations.

The last time the Bank of Japan raised rates in July, it caused an unwinding of the so-called yen carry trade that resulted in selling of high-growth U.S. stocks purchased using lower rates in Japan. Past isn't precedent, though. Looking ahead to the Fed meeting, there's nearly 100% odds of a pause, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Chances of a cut this quarter slipped below 25% late Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon featured a relatively light earnings schedule, but things pick up later today with expected results from several major transport firms, including American Airlines, Union Pacific, and CSX. The airline sector's earnings got off to a solid start with Delta and United Airlines, but shipping metrics are under scrutiny after early results from that sector.

December leading indicators from the conference board released Wednesday fell 0.1% from a month earlier, below analysts' expectations of a flat reading. It was negative for months before a surprisingly revised 0.4% gain in November. Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, relatively weak manufacturing orders, a decline in building permits, and a rise in initial unemployment claims weighed.

However, this report is a bit dated in some ways, considering the recent drop to long-term lows in claims. The latest weekly jobless claims update is due at 8.30 a.m. ET today, and analysts expect 219,000 according to Briefing.com. That's near the middle of the recent range.

Yesterday saw the S&P 500 index set a new all-time intraday high just above 6,100 and then closed just below the all-time closing high of around 6,090 set in early December. Positive vibes continued amid hopes the new U.S. administration could spark economic growth and fourth quarter earnings have been generally impressive. But it's still quite early in the reporting season, however.

Also, yesterday's rally was mainly built around the tech sector, which climbed about 2.5%. Only one other sector, communication services, made gains, and the other nine S&P sectors fell. That implies lack of balance and breadth, though it was only one day of trading.

The S&P 500 index climbed 37.13 points Wednesday or 0.61% to 6,086.37. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 130.92 points or 0.3% to 44,156.73 and the NASDAQ Composite rose 252.56 points or 1.28% to 20,009.34.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield gained three basis points to 4.60%. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.