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cover of episode Following Record High, Market Faces Jobs Parade

Following Record High, Market Faces Jobs Parade

2025/6/30
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Schwab Market Update Audio
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Colette O'Clare
C
Cooper Howard
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K
Kathy Jones
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Michael Townsend
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Nathan Peterson
Topics
Colette O'Clare: 本周市场将受到大量就业数据的影响，包括职位空缺、ADP私营部门就业报告和非农就业报告。预计6月份非农就业人数将减少，但失业率将保持在4.2%。这些数据可能影响美联储的下一步决策，但需要非常糟糕的数据才能促使7月份降息。美联储主席鲍威尔将在一个小组讨论会上发言。 Kathy Jones: 美联储内部对于下一步政策的时机存在明显分歧。一些人认为应该维持利率不变，而另一些人则主张尽早降息。我预计今年将降息一到两次，从九月开始，届时经济增长将放缓，失业率将上升。如果关税持续，可能会导致消费品价格上涨。 Cooper Howard: 五月份的个人消费支出价格报告显示，核心PCE高于预期，降低了7月份降息的可能性。另一方面，个人支出和收入数据疲软，表明消费者可能变弱。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This week's abbreviated trading schedule includes key economic data releases that could influence the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Job growth expectations are lower than in May, and the upcoming June non-farm payrolls report will be crucial. Differing opinions exist within the Fed regarding the timing of the next policy step, with some advocating for an early rate cut while others suggest a hold.
  • Job growth expectations are near 120,000, down from 139,000 in May.
  • Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.2%.
  • Differing opinions within the Fed on the timing of the next policy step.
  • May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price report shows headline growth in line with expectations, but core PCE rose above consensus.
  • Atlanta Fed's GDP Now metric fell to 2.9% from 3.4%.

Shownotes Transcript

Jobs data dominate a holiday-shortened week, highlighted by Thursday's June payrolls. Stocks hit new record highs Friday despite trade tension with Canada. Powell talks tomorrow.

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