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cover of episode Inflation Data Loom After Tariff-Related Sell-off

Inflation Data Loom After Tariff-Related Sell-off

2025/2/28
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Schwab Market Update Audio
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Colette O'Claire
C
Colin Martin
无可用信息。
N
Nathan Peterson
Topics
Colette O'Claire: 我是Colette O'Claire，这是Schwab对2月28日星期五市场的初步观察。今天的1月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数是市场关注的焦点。分析师预计该报告将显示核心PCE月度增长0.3%，年度PCE将分别低于12月的2.6%和2.8%。这些数据是在经历了另一个疲软的一天之后发布的，尽管英伟达的强劲业绩，大型科技股的表现仍然不佳。关税担忧已使许多风险投资者退场，标普500指数跌破关键支撑位，科技股表现不佳。本周波动性激增，VIX指数升至20以上，预示市场可能面临困难。1月CPI和PPI均高于预期，但影响PCE的部分PPI低于预期。国债收益率昨日小幅上涨，原因是特朗普总统重申了从下周二开始对加拿大和墨西哥进口商品征收关税的想法，并威胁要对中国商品额外征收10%的关税。关税可能会导致通货膨胀，这可能是收益率上升的原因，但收益率仍接近两个月低点。近期收益率下降反映了对经济增长可能放缓的担忧。本周晚些时候，10年期国债收益率跌破3个月期国债收益率，收益率曲线倒挂被认为是经济衰退的信号，尽管这并非必然。下周零售业财报将加速发布，Costco、百思买、Foot Locker和塔吉特等公司将发布财报。下周还将发布3月7日的非农就业报告。CME FedWatch工具显示，下月FOMC会议暂停加息的概率接近95%。 Nathan Peterson: 市场目前担忧经济增长放缓，这意味着坏消息就是坏消息，市场将对经济数据更加敏感。这可能会导致PCE通胀数据疲软，一个月前这可能是利好消息，但现在可能并非如此。鉴于目前市场情绪，通货紧缩可能被视为指向更严重的经济放缓。 Colin Martin: 初始每周失业金人数跃升至24.2万，远高于预期的22万，比前一周增加了2.2万，创下四个月来的新高。一个月并不一定代表趋势，但初始失业金人数持续上升将令人担忧。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent market downturn, focusing on the January CPI and PPI data, tariff fears, and the resulting volatility. It explores the impact of these factors on major indexes and investor sentiment.
  • January CPI and PPI data hotter than expected
  • Tariff fears push investors to sidelines
  • S&P 500 falls below key support
  • Volatility surges, VIX above 20

Shownotes Transcript

Investors await January PCE prices after tariff-related selling accelerated yesterday and pushed major indexes to one-month lows. Tech shares struggled in a risk-off climate.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

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