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cover of episode Inflation Fears, Declining Sentiment Sink Equities

Inflation Fears, Declining Sentiment Sink Equities

2025/3/31
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Keith Lansford
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Keith Lansford: 我观察到近期市场动荡的主要原因是通货膨胀担忧和消费者信心下降。美联储偏爱的通胀报告显示通胀略高于预期,同时消费者信心指数大幅下跌,这导致周五股市下跌约2%。本周开局强劲,但随后迅速回落,投资者对经济增长的担忧加剧,截至中午,看跌股票与看涨股票的比例为8:1。股市似乎正在去风险化,跌幅广泛,但成长型板块似乎受到了一些冲击。标普500指数收跌112.37点,跌幅为1.97%,收于5580.94点。标普500指数的动能持续减弱,并测试了多个支撑位,包括3月21日的低点5603点和3月13日的低点5504点。如果跌破这些支撑位,可能会跌至9月6日的低点5402点。与此同时,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌715.80点,跌幅为1.69%,收于41583.90点;纳斯达克综合指数下跌481.04点,跌幅为2.7%,收于17322.99点。2月份的个人消费支出(PCE)报告显示,核心PCE环比增长0.4%,同比增长2.8%,均高于预期和1月份的水平。核心PCE排除了波动较大的食品和能源成本。与此同时,根据密歇根大学消费者信心指数的最终读数,3月份消费者信心指数从上月的64.7下降至57,为两年来的最低水平,而通胀预期则升至两年来的最高水平。彭博社指出,潜在的关税实施也加剧了市场担忧。但PCE报告并非全是坏消息。整体数据环比增长0.3%,同比增长2.5%,与市场预期和1月份的读数一致。个人收入环比增长0.8%,是分析师预期0.4%的两倍,略高于1月份的0.7%的增幅。个人支出环比增长仅为0.1%,而预期为0.3%。消费者信心调查的先前估计值为57.9%,这也是目前的普遍预期,这意味着实际结果比预期低近一个百分点。该调查的长期通胀中位数实际上上升至4.1%,为几十年来的最高水平,而最初的读数为3.9%。PCE和密歇根大学调查显示通胀粘性和家庭财务压力加大,引发了对经济增长以及滞胀或衰退的担忧。债券市场的反应很有趣,利率下降,表明人们更关注经济增长放缓。4月2日,特朗普总统的关税计划规模可能会公布,即使实施再次推迟。最近关于可能对美国境外生产的汽车征收25%关税的消息,加剧了上周本来就不稳定的市场动荡,因此,投资者务必密切关注各种关税的潜在影响,并在更多关税新闻发布时密切关注最新发展。周二将公布就业数据,包括职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)以及ISM制造业PMI。当股市收盘时,比特币期货也随大盘下跌,下跌3455美元,至84000美元。虽然许多大盘股下跌,包括“七巨头”下跌3.48%,但Lululemon是周五跌幅最大的股票之一,下跌14.19%,此前第四季度盈利超过预期,但营收指引低于分析师的预测。

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A slightly hot inflation reading and a big drop in a consumer sentiment survey sent equity indexes down about 2% Friday, ahead of more pending uncertainty next week with tariffs.

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