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cover of episode Jobs Report in Focus Amid More Signs of Softness

Jobs Report in Focus Amid More Signs of Softness

2025/6/6
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Schwab Market Update Audio
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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C
Colette O'Claire
C
Cooper Howard
[Empty]
K
Kathy Jones
N
Nathan Peterson
Topics
Colette O'Claire: 今天发布的五月份非农就业数据将检验一个理论，该理论认为，像就业和零售销售这样的硬性数据并没有受到美国和中国国家主席昨天讨论的关税紧张局势的太大影响。分析师预计就业增长将从四月份的17.7万人降至13万人。然而，估计范围从最少的9.5万人到最多的17.5万人不等，预计失业率将保持在4.2%，工资环比增长0.3%。非农就业人数总体呈下降趋势，但四月份的报告表现强劲，最近的数据常常出人意料地表现强劲。然而，上周首次申请失业救济金人数和裁员数据引发了对就业市场的担忧，这发生在就业数据公布的前一天。根据挑战者裁员报告，上个月雇主裁员约9.4万人，低于四月份的约1.1万人，但服务行业的裁员人数激增。同时，首次申请失业救济金人数连续第二周上升至24.7万人，达到八个月来的高点。持续申请失业救济金人数回升至190万以上，接近四年来的高点。特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平进行了贸易通话，但细节不多，市场反应不大。特朗普暗示，关于中国用于工业和汽车的关键矿产的争议是讨论的一部分，但由于信息不足，市场对此消息反应平淡。特斯拉股价因特朗普与马斯克之间的争端而大幅波动，特朗普威胁要终止马斯克数十亿美元的政府补贴和合同。特斯拉的大市值本身就给标普500指数带来了压力。博通的季度收入和每股收益略高于分析师的平均预期，但对第三季度收入的预测略高于市场预期。Lululemon 的盈利指引令人失望，导致股价在盘后交易中大幅下跌。未来几天，焦点将回到国债上，即将举行新的政府债券拍卖，包括三年期和十年期国债。较低的收益率可能表明经济增长放缓，而较高的收益率可能意味着消费者和公司的借贷成本增加。下周将发布备受关注的美国月度消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。市场目前预计今年将降息两次，但就业数据可能是关键。标普500指数未能突破6000点的心理关口，随后下跌，这通常会引发更多抛售。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌108点，跌幅0.25%。标普500指数下跌31.51点，跌幅0.53%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌162.04点，跌幅0.83%。 Cooper Howard: 初请失业金人数的上升表明劳动力市场出现了一些疲软。如果今天的就业报告继续显示疲软，可能促使美联储更加关注六月和七月的就业数据，投资者可能会期待九月份降息。作为施瓦布金融研究中心的固定收益策略主管，我个人认为就业数据是影响美联储决策的关键因素，而初请失业金人数的增加预示着劳动力市场可能面临挑战。如果这种趋势持续下去，美联储可能会重新评估其货币政策，并考虑在未来几个月内采取行动以支持经济增长。我将密切关注接下来的就业数据，以判断这是否仅仅是暂时的波动，还是更深层次问题的迹象。此外，全球经济形势和贸易紧张局势也可能对美联储的决策产生影响，因此需要综合考虑各种因素。 Nathan Peterson: 人工智能的长期增长故事和相应的投资推动是推动对经济和增长的乐观情绪的关键支柱之一。作为施瓦布金融研究中心的衍生品分析主管，我认为人工智能的快速发展正在对经济产生深远的影响。这种技术不仅提高了生产力，还创造了新的商业模式和就业机会。投资者对人工智能的乐观情绪反映了对未来增长潜力的信心。然而，我也意识到人工智能发展带来的风险，例如技术失业和社会不平等。因此，我们需要采取措施来确保人工智能的发展能够惠及所有人，并最大限度地减少潜在的负面影响。我将继续关注人工智能领域的最新进展，并评估其对经济和市场的影响。 Kathy Jones: 政治和经济的不确定性可能会加剧固定收益市场的波动。作为施瓦布的首席固定收益策略师，我认为当前的市场环境充满了挑战。政治事件和经济数据的变化都可能对固定收益市场产生重大影响。投资者需要保持警惕，并密切关注市场动态。我建议投资者采取多元化的投资策略，以降低风险。此外，了解不同类型固定收益产品的特点和风险也很重要。我将继续为投资者提供专业的分析和建议，帮助他们做出明智的投资决策。全球长期收益率上升的趋势表明，过去20年积累的政府预算赤字需要更高的收益率才能吸引投资者，尤其是在低利率和低通胀时期。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The May jobs report is expected to show 130,000 new jobs, but recent data suggests a softening labor market. Initial jobless claims rose to an eight-month high, and layoffs increased in the services sector. The Federal Reserve may focus on upcoming jobs numbers if softening continues.
  • May nonfarm payrolls report expected to show 130,000 new jobs
  • Initial weekly jobless claims edged up for the second straight week to 247,000
  • Layoffs soared in the services sector
  • Odds of a September rate cut are around 75 percent

Shownotes Transcript

May nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show 130,000 new jobs, but recent labor reports suggest weakening employment. Trade talk swirls and Tesla licks its wounds after a plunge.

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