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cover of episode June Jobs Data Awaited with Estimates Near 120,000

June Jobs Data Awaited with Estimates Near 120,000

2025/7/3
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Schwab Market Update Audio

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
K
Kathy Jones
K
Keith Lansford
M
Michael Townsend
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Nathan Peterson
Topics
Keith Lansford: 今天市场聚焦于即将发布的非农就业数据,预计失业率将维持在4.2%。然而,昨天的ADP报告显示私营部门就业人数意外下降,这引发了对劳动力市场健康状况的担忧,并增加了美联储近期降息的可能性。市场参与者将密切关注这些数据,以评估经济的真实走向以及美联储可能采取的行动。此外,特朗普政府的贸易政策,特别是与越南的关税协议,也为市场带来了一定的不确定性,需要进一步观察其对经济的影响。 Kathy Jones: 我认为非农就业报告将比ADP数据更为重要,尽管ADP数据已经暗示劳动力市场正在走软。如果美联储过早降息,可能会提高通胀预期,从而推高中期至长期利率,尤其是在国债供应可能因支出增加而持续上升的环境下。因此,美联储在制定政策时需要权衡各种因素,以避免对经济造成不利影响。 Nathan Peterson: 我认为目前很难评估越南协议对市场的具体影响。一方面,贸易协议的达成提供了一定的清晰度,并暗示未来可能达成更多协议。但另一方面,20%的关税率可能高于预期,其对通胀和需求的经济影响尚不明确。如果劳动力市场出现更多裂缝,这可能意味着美联储降息的可能性增加,但也可能暗示经济疲软。市场参与者如何解读这些信号将至关重要,他们需要判断疲软的就业数据是利好还是利空。

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Chapters
The June jobs report is highly anticipated, with expectations of slower growth and its potential impact on Federal Reserve rate cut decisions. Yesterday's ADP report showed a decline in private sector job growth, raising concerns about the labor market's health and increasing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. The market's reaction to this data will be crucial, and the overall economic implications are still uncertain.
  • June non-farm payrolls report expected at 120,000 jobs, down from May's 139,000
  • Unemployment expected to remain at 4.2%
  • Private sector job growth fell 33,000 in June, according to ADP report
  • Concerns about labor market softening and potential Fed rate cuts
  • Market's technical underpinnings remain bullish despite weak jobs data

Shownotes Transcript

Today's payrolls report dominates the scenery, with unemployment seen at 4.2%. Weak jobs growth might raise rate cut hopes but chances of one before fall remain relatively low.

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